2018 Draft/Positional Needs for Patriots

[50-yard-line]

My Predictions
1. Nate Solder - Released. We have our backup tackles performing admirably so far and Solder isn't the LT he once was.

2. Malcolm Butler - Released. He hasn't brought the same level of play from the past and he is going to be 28. Doesn't seem like having a 28 year old corner on a long-term deal would be the best move - especially when we have contributors playing on a similar level lower on the depth chart.

3. Burkhead - Signed to another 1 year.

4. Bademosi - 2 year deal. He played really well and he's gonna be cheap enough for the team to resign.

5. Slater - Released.

6. Fleming - Signed if possible but a weak OT class could jack up the salary.

7. Amendola - Released.

8. Lewis - Signed to a 2 year deal.

9. Waddle - Signed to a long-term deal.


In the draft, I see us picking up a DE in the 1st round and then a CB and OT in 2nd round. Then I see a RB, S, and WR being picked up.

Pretty good, except I don't see them releasing Amendola - dude is money and isn't expensive.

Solder might be back, but not at top money, I agree.

I think they try to get Burkhead for more than 1 year...maybe 3?

And I don't think the Pats go high for a TE in the draft, unless there's a stud hanging around out there. They like Allen more than many here do.

 

[supafly]

Pretty good, except I don't see them releasing Amendola - dude is money and isn't expensive.

Solder might be back, but not at top money, I agree.

I think they try to get Burkhead for more than 1 year...maybe 3?

And I don't think the Pats go high for a TE in the draft, unless there's a stud hanging around out there. They like Allen more than many here do.

Good stuff. I agree with everything aside from keeping Allen, which would save a significant amount if he’s released (5m). Maybe he restructures a bit and they find some middle ground. I think Bennett could be a half season rental. Could see a mid level FA signing and/or mid-late round draft pick.

Devlin’s versatility helps tremendously.

 

[Ivan]

Getting rid of Amendola is a great idea, in fact it’s been suggested at least 5 million times on this board , unfortunately Belichick continues to ignore it and Amendola keeps dropping passes at the most critical times. It’s been killing them in fact, they would have won Lombardi’s in both 2014 and 2016 if he hadn’t screwed them with huge drops.


Hopefully Bill will finally listen to the pleas and cut his sorry ass.

 

[ohiopatsfan]

What happens with Dola depends to a great extent on how Edelman comes back from his injury. If Edelman can't come back or if he is not the same player he was, then Dola may still be needed. The Pats have Riley McCarron and Bernie Reedy on the PS so, if one or both look good, that might reduce the need for Dola. He has taken one for the team three times by accepting pay cuts. However, when Welker started dropping passes in key situations, he didn't last very long. A slot receiver takes quite a beating working over the middle, as evidenced by the injury histories of Welker, Dola and Edelman.

 

[Pats1989]

What is Malcolm Mitchell's role moving forward?

 

[farn]

OT. I've been higher on Solder than many on here, but I think it makes sense as he might not be in the league for many more years.

I don't see Butler here in 2018. Slater COULD be leaving, but I see his return a short much more probable than some.

 

[Aßßynormal]

If Butler can play well down the stretch and playoffs, he'd be rated a primary target in Free Agency. He's also eligible for a Tag. If we tagged him we may be required to keep him for another (maybe over paying him a little - big deal).

OTOH, we can lower the amount we want in compensation to a late second rounder (or a third and a fourth)(yes, he'd have to sign the Tender first). I think we'll have at least one major signing of our own (see: Jarvis Landry or Emanuele Sanders, a LB, a DT, etc.). So, we probably get no compensation 2019. This way we keep him a year or get immediate compensation.

The bottom line, overpaying a quality 29 year old CB is something we could live with. I like J. Jones but he's not Butler. We have some leverage, we should get something for him.

 

[mgteich]

The question is NOT whether to pay Butler or Jones. Perhaps you believe that there is no one else available that would be a better value than Butler at $14M.

If Butler can play well down the stretch and playoffs, he'd be rated a primary target in Free Agency. He's also eligible for a Tag. If we tagged him we may be required to keep him for another (maybe over paying him a little - big deal).

OTOH, we can lower the amount we want in compensation to a late second rounder (or a third and a fourth)(yes, he'd have to sign the Tender first). I think we'll have at least one major signing of our own (see: Jarvis Landry or Emanuele Sanders, a LB, a DT, etc.). So, we probably get no compensation 2019. This we keep him a year or get immediate compensation.

The bottom line, overpaying a quality 29 year old CB is something we could live with. I like J. Jones but he's not Butler.

 

[Aßßynormal]

We've been trying to sign him, we must've offered at least 11m already. I can live without him but I want compensation, overpaying 3 million isn't the worst risk to take. He'd still be in a contract year in 2018.

 

[mgteich]

Obviously, our 2018 season needs depends on who we extend during the 2017 season.
For example, I could see the following re-signed early. None of these would require big money. My top 3 would be Bademosi, Karras and Waddle. I think all of these relatively low cost players would be useful as at least camp competition.

This would have Butler and Solder testing the market. It would also delay RB decisions with Lewis, Burkhead and Bolden being UFA's.

OFFENSE
Karras
Waddle
Fleming
Amendola

DEFENSE
Francois
Reilly

SPECIAL TEAMS
Bademosi (obviously also a backup CB)
Flowers (also a backup LB)
Slater
Ebner
King

 

[HailHydra]

Pretty good, except I don't see them releasing Amendola - dude is money and isn't expensive.

Solder might be back, but not at top money, I agree.

I think they try to get Burkhead for more than 1 year...maybe 3?

And I don't think the Pats go high for a TE in the draft, unless there's a stud hanging around out there. They like Allen more than many here do.

True about Amendola - but he is getting up there and 1 year deals may not be ideal. The only knock on Solder is that he is probably a top 3 LT prospect on the market this year so he has to be paid well - which his play doesn't truly justify. The problem with paying Burkhead for a long-term deal is that he'll be 28.

 

[maineman209]

What happens with Dola depends to a great extent on how Edelman comes back from his injury. If Edelman can't come back or if he is not the same player he was, then Dola may still be needed. The Pats have Riley McCarron and Bernie Reedy on the PS so, if one or both look good, that might reduce the need for Dola. He has taken one for the team three times by accepting pay cuts. However, when Welker started dropping passes in key situations, he didn't last very long. A slot receiver takes quite a beating working over the middle, as evidenced by the injury histories of Welker, Dola and Edelman.

Amendola has caught 43 of 55 targets (78%) and dropped 4 (7%). He's also made a 1st down on over 65% of his receptions.

There's a score of other WRs, RBs and TEs around the league who've been targeted 50-60 times at roughly the same ypc who also have four drops. None of them are even close to Amendola's catch-rate and first-down production.

 

[maineman209]

What is Malcolm Mitchell's role moving forward?

IIRC, last season, Mitchell ran a lot of different routes, but seemed especially adept at middle-distance crossers and outs.

 

[maineman209]

If Butler can play well down the stretch and playoffs, he'd be rated a primary target in Free Agency. He's also eligible for a Tag. If we tagged him we may be required to keep him for another (maybe over paying him a little - big deal).

OTOH, we can lower the amount we want in compensation to a late second rounder (or a third and a fourth)(yes, he'd have to sign the Tender first). I think we'll have at least one major signing of our own (see: Jarvis Landry or Emanuele Sanders, a LB, a DT, etc.). So, we probably get no compensation 2019. This way we keep him a year or get immediate compensation.

The bottom line, overpaying a quality 29 year old CB is something we could live with. I like J. Jones but he's not Butler. We have some leverage, we should get something for him.

The problem with the tag 'n' trade scenario for Butler is that the 2018 FT for CBs should be around $14.5M, and the best estimate from Miguel is that the Pats will start the new league year with only about $13.7M. While they can likely free up another ~$10M fairly quickly thru cuts and re-structures, that still severely restricts their maneuvering room for offering extensions and for signing in-house and external free agents.

 

[maineman209]

Obviously, our 2018 season needs depends on who we extend during the 2017 season.
For example, I could see the following re-signed early. None of these would require big money. My top 3 would be Bademosi, Karras and Waddle. I think all of these relatively low cost players would be useful as at least camp competition.

This would have Butler and Solder testing the market. It would also delay RB decisions with Lewis, Burkhead and Bolden being UFA's.

OFFENSE
Karras
Waddle
Fleming
Amendola

DEFENSE
Francois
Reilly

SPECIAL TEAMS
Bademosi (obviously also a backup CB)
Flowers (also a backup LB)
Slater
Ebner
King

While I agree with your "who", the fact that the Pats currently have less than $3.8M in 2017 cap space would seem to significantly limit what they might otherwise want to do with extensions this season.

 

[maineman209]

True about Amendola - but he is getting up there and 1 year deals may not be ideal. The only knock on Solder is that he is probably a top 3 LT prospect on the market this year so he has to be paid well - which his play doesn't truly justify. The problem with paying Burkhead for a long-term deal is that he'll be 28.

Amendola will be 32, but his performance this season has still been top-notch - way more than what would be required from a #4 WR. My guess is that, if he wants to continue playing another year for $1.7M-$2.0M, the Pats will likely re-sign him.

With Burkhead, it depends on what you mean by "long term" and on how "real" the last year or two of a 3 or 4-year deal might be.

With Solder, a lot has been written about his personal/family situation (his son's cancer). While I'm among the least likely to give credence to media reports, this one seems worth serious consideration and raises the possibility that Solder retires after the end of this season.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Amendola will be 32, but his performance this season has still been top-notch - way more than what would be required from a #4 WR. My guess is that, if he wants to continue playing another year for $1.7M-$2.0M, the Pats will likely re-sign him.

With Burkhead, it depends on what you mean by "long term" and on how "real" the last year or two of a 3 or 4-year deal might be.

With Solder, a lot has been written about his personal/family situation (his son's cancer). While I'm among the least likely to give credence to media reports, this one seems worth serious consideration and raises the possibility that Solder retires after the end of this season.

With Dana Farber and Children's Hospital being the top pediatric care facilities for kids in the world right here I'm not sure it would be wise to leave the area over a couple of bucks.

I think the Pats would really need to pork him for Nate to leave the team.

 

[Brady6]

Pretty good, except I don't see them releasing Amendola - dude is money and isn't expensive.

Solder might be back, but not at top money, I agree.

I think they try to get Burkhead for more than 1 year...maybe 3?

And I don't think the Pats go high for a TE in the draft, unless there's a stud hanging around out there. They like Allen more than many here do.

Amendola is a free agent.

They will need to prioritze Lewis over Burkhead in my opinion.

 

[Soliel]

They have to keep Lewis period. I never can tell what bill might do. He is not normal when it comes to decisions. That said, I really don’t like the idea of Amendola or butler going anywhere but hell, I’ve disliked almost every decision the pats make but yet love the outcome.

Even years when New England is beat in the afc championship game, I’m usually happy over all. I hate losing maybe to the point of loathing. I cheat at checkers and cards. The pats win often and so I don’t get too mad when they lose.

 

[patriot1136]

I'd be ok with Solder and Butler going if it allows us to keep Lewis and Burkhead. I really like what we have going in the backfield with them, White, and even Gillislee.