49ers may trade Garoppolo to highest bidder in the offseason

[Oswlek]

By having Brady...

I'll take that corner.

Brady is certainly a factor, but simplifying it to just him is disingenuous, if not intentionally so.

 

[BradyFTW!]

The 49ers have a lot more leverage in any potential Garoppolo trade than we ever did, because keeping him as their QB of the future starting in 2018 is a real, viable option that does not require displacing the GOAT.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

The Pats trading Jimmy now, not only gives them what looks like one of the top picks in the second round, and hopefully the coveted #33 pick (the Ras IR pick). But it also frees up the franchise tag for Butler.

If the Pats had to franchise Jimmy, the price would have been astronomical and would have hamstrung them with the salary cap until they finally traded him. This way they trade him without having to deal with Jimmy's salary demands.

I highly doubt that SF trades him, as they are already going to have a top pick in the draft and can get much more by trading down from that pick, than they ever could from a franchised Jimmy.

This is really a low-risk move for the 49ers.

They will have Jimmy for half a season and can make a better evaluation than from a small sample size. They're paying basically NFL minimum wage for this option.

They should have one of the top picks to get a potential franchise QB. They can use it or trade it as you said.

They traded a second round pick. They would like to recoup that if they're not convinced Jimmy is the guy.

If they keep Jimmy, they can trade that pick and easily recoup the second (and more) that they traded for him.

If they prefer the potential franchise QB draft pick, they could potentially auction Jimmy off for a second, recouping their investment.

There's also a risk Jimmy craps the bed. But I still think they could get a 3rd or 4th in that scenario during the draft from a team that misses out at the top for their QB.

The Browns/Texans deal for Osweiler also brought up some potential options for creating NBA-style salary dumps. I could imagine the 49ers using some of their ample cap room to create a friendly contract that gets a ton of money for Jimmy put on their cap (signing bonus), then traded to a team in exchange for a much better draft pick.

So if let's say Team A is willing to trade a 2nd for Jimmy, the 49ers could offer something like say 4 years, $85M, $50M in guarantees with $30M from a signing bonus. Then they package him up and trade him so they eat $30M in dead money, Team A gets a starter for 4 years, $55M, with $20M in guarantees. They could even guarantee the first year salary to minimize the risk moving forward.

A top pick like Jared Goff signed for 4 years, $27M as a rookie. So you could be a bit more than a rookie, but well below-market for a key starter.

Obviously the 49ers would need a lot more than a second round pick to sacrifice that cap room. But if they could get 2 1sts and 2 2nds, don't they have to at least consider it? Especially if one of those picks turns into a star? A top draft pick would save them $20-$30M in salary over the course of the contract anyways, so as long as they hit on 1 of those 4, they'd really be even in a way.

I don't know if that's the best structure, I'm sure there are smarter ways of doing it. But there are a lot of possibilities for the 49ers.

 

[goheels22002]

They will if the alternative is him walking.

Jimmy Garoppolo does not walk. He rides in style.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

2 firsts and 2 seconds for JAG?!?!
STOP THE INSANITY

 

[maineman209]

they can't trade a guy not under contract so if he doesn't sign, they are stuck either - rescind the tag and he walks or hold out hope they can negotiate a contract and then get traded... Obviously JAG would like to get paid but my point is that he too has some leverage and can refuse to sign the tag then get traded if he doesn't like the final team....

Here's the thing.

SFO currently has about $60m in cap space that they can roll over into 2018. Their current cap commitments for 2018 are about the same as what they have now (slightly lower, actually) and the cap is certain to rise a bit for 2018. That gives them an additional $60m or more for about $120m total.

If they tag JG, they still have over $95m in cap space.

If JG refuses to sign because he wants to go to a different team, SFO could still sign Cousins and have about $70m in cap space left for 2018, AND they'd get JG's tag amount added back to their cap space once he's gone.

Basically, all that SFO has invested in JG is their 2018 2nd-rounder (they still have another), plus the $434k that they're paying him this season. AND, they'll get something in return, draft-pick-wise, when they trade him.

Where are the Niners "stuck"?

 

[50-yard-line]

Brady is certainly a factor, but simplifying it to just him is disingenuous, if not intentionally so.

It seems a simple choice to me, and always has.

You get Brady for another 2-3 years, maybe, or you keep JimmyG and hope he gives you 10-15 great years.

Don't see how or why he would EVER stay on your bench, when QB rookies are having an impact right now.

 

[maineman209]

This is really a low-risk move for the 49ers.

Exactly.

JG could decide to quit football at the end of the season and go join a cult in Oregon - and the Niners would be out the $434k they paid him this season and their 2nd round pick.

However, they'd still have nine draft picks, including the 2nd they got from NOL, and about $120m in cap space for 2018.

So, the ROI on trading for JG would suck, but the net damage would be minimal.

If JG doesn't like SFO's long-term contract offers (assuming that they'll still want to keep him), they can either let him walk and go get Cousins, or they can tag-and-trade JG.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Exactly.

JG could decide to quit football at the end of the season and go join a cult in Oregon - and the Niners would be out the $434k they paid him this season and their 2nd round pick.

However, they'd still have nine draft picks, including the 2nd they got from NOL, and about $120m in cap space for 2018.

So, the ROI on trading for JG would suck, but the net damage would be minimal.

If JG doesn't like SFO's long-term contract offers (assuming that they'll still want to keep him), they can either let him walk and go get Cousins, or they can tag-and-trade JG.

They MIGHT get Cousins if they love him AND Tag & Trade Jimmy. They have the cap room to do this AND be the force in FA.

SF has a rich option set.

Then they just might keep JAG and sign Josh McD as HC.

 

[Pats2000]

Get ready to be disappointed. NE had painted themselves into a corner that SF won't be stuck in.

How so? The Pats needed a backup in the event Brady went down. JG was the only viable backup they had. With Brady showing no decline, they did the only thing they could, held on as long as possible until a serviceable backup showed up in Hoyer. Then they got their 2nd round pick back. All in all, they basically had an amazing backup, that won 2 games for them while brady was out during a Superbowl year and it cost them basically nothing, in fact less than nothing. The pats 2nd round pick will be much higher than the one they picked JG with.

 

[Oswlek]

It seems a simple choice to me, and always has.

You get Brady for another 2-3 years, maybe, or you keep JimmyG and hope he gives you 10-15 great years.

Don't see how or why he would EVER stay on your bench, when QB rookies are having an impact right now.

FWIW, you are talking about something entitely different than I am. I've been on record from the start that trading Jimmy was the most likely - and most sensible - outcome. It's deferring to the last minute with no legitimate tag-and-trade ability next off season that created the "corner".

 

[Oswlek]

How so?

Asked and answered in the thread already. SF has cap flexibility next year than NE lacks, giving them more options.

 

[TheFlyingWedge]

Jimmy needs to get on the field in SF before any talk of what they are going to do with him. York probably leaked this story because it makes no sense.

Jed York is a clown - He has no business owning anything, much less a team. He is the most hated man in the Bay Area.

 

[fnordcircle]

Jimmy needs to get on the field in SF before any talk of what they are going to do with him. York probably leaked this story because it makes no sense.

Jed York is a clown - He has no business owning anything, much less a team. He is the most hated man in the Bay Area.

It's a possibility that they could trade him, as others have pointed out they have more flexibility to keep him so it gives them a better position to deal with other teams.

But honestly this whole thing reads like a negotiating tactic because they want him to sign a team-friendly deal before he hits FA.

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

Here's the thing.

SFO currently has about $60m in cap space that they can roll over into 2018. Their current cap commitments for 2018 are about the same as what they have now (slightly lower, actually) and the cap is certain to rise a bit for 2018. That gives them an additional $60m or more for about $120m total.

If they tag JG, they still have over $95m in cap space.

If JG refuses to sign because he wants to go to a different team, SFO could still sign Cousins and have about $70m in cap space left for 2018, AND they'd get JG's tag amount added back to their cap space once he's gone.

Basically, all that SFO has invested in JG is their 2018 2nd-rounder (they still have another), plus the $434k that they're paying him this season. AND, they'll get something in return, draft-pick-wise, when they trade him.

Where are the Niners "stuck"?

If you don't mind "throwing away" a very high second round pick, then they are not stuck. But that's a lot of equity to throw away......I do think they will sign him long term and have the cap space to add the missing parts. Yes, they are 0-8 but I think they have the potential to turn it around ala Rams, Jags,Eagles, .maybe not next year but with a good QB ( are you listening Cleveland and Denver??) and JAG may turn out to be a good or even better QB....

 

[MainePatsFan26]

Hard to square this with not playing JG before hand to see what they've got before risking a #1 on a pig in a poke.

I disagree. My take on JG is that he is a guy who can get the 49ers to a wild-card berth with a few tweaks to the roster. In other words, JG is a solid quarterback who can help the 49ers get back to mediocrity and potential success. The problem is that he, in my opinion, isn't the All-Pro guy who gets the 49ers into the Super Bowl without a lot of help.

By getting the 49ers into that 8-8 to 9-7 window that won't eclipse the Seahawks (or Rams with how they're playing), the team won't get the high picks necessary to redevelop the roster from top to bottom. As a result, I like the idea of dealing Jimmy for more than the 2nd round pick you paid for him. Then use your first or second pick in this year's draft to get a guy who could take your team to the Super Bowl in 3-4 years while also ensuring you aren't too good while he is developing (thus ensuring higher picks to upgrade the overall roster with cheap rookie deals).

TLDR; Jimmy is simultaneously too good and not good enough for the 49ers to win a Super Bowl with him on the roster. Deal him.

 

[PrairiePat]

If the niners decide JAG is not their long-term solution, they are going to be in a bad place.

He's a free agent after this year, so they -have- to franchise him at that point if they want to recoup something for their 2nd rounder. But they'll be in a poor position to trade him because (1) he will have this albatross $24mil contract that another team will have to take on, and (2) if the niners have decided he's not the answer, why on Earth would another team give up big value to get him?

Maybe SF can offer to pay a chunk of the salary for 2018, but that's still an expensive price to pay just to get a trade done.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

I must be missing something here - won't SF be in exactly the same bind NE was if they decide to trade JG rather than sign him long term?

The key point here is that Garoppolo doesn't have to sign the franchise tag until midseason. Until he signs it, the only options the Niners have are (A) sign him to a long-term deal or (B) let him go for nothing.

 

[mgteich]

The 49ers have all the flexibility in negotiating with JAG. They could even franchise him and draft a top QB, and have relatively low cost for 2018.

“
With a potential pick among the top two in the 2018 NFL draft and roughly $60 million in salary-cap space in the offseason, the 49ers ultimately could decide to draft their quarterback of the future or use some of their money to sign a free-agent quarterback such as Washington's Kirk Cousins, sources said.

If the 49ers decide to not sign Garoppolo to a long-term deal, they could use a franchise tag on him and then dangle him to the highest bidder in a trade. If they were to do that, there would be interest, sources said, and they could possibly get back more than the second-round pick they surrendered.”

 

[maineman209]

If you don't mind "throwing away" a very high second round pick, then they are not stuck. But that's a lot of equity to throw away......I do think they will sign him long term and have the cap space to add the missing parts. Yes, they are 0-8 but I think they have the potential to turn it around ala Rams, Jags,Eagles, .maybe not next year but with a good QB ( are you listening Cleveland and Denver??) and JAG may turn out to be a good or even better QB....

Here are the risk-reward scenarios, IMHO:

1) They spend the higher of their TWO 2nd-round picks on a QB with 3+ seasons in the NFL and some successful starting experience - a guy who seems likely to be competent at the very least - AND they get to "test drive" him for half a season while paying him peanuts.

If he works out this season, they sign him to a 5-year deal that's probably cheaper than what Cousins would demand. Then, they trade their high 2018 FIRST ROUND pick for more picks to fill other positions of need - whatever they haven't filled using their still-prodigious amount of cap space in FA.

They have a huge jump on the 2018 season.

If JG doesn't work out, they still have options #2 & #3 below, but they've only "lost" a 2nd-round pick.

2) Keep the high-2nd and try to sign Cousins in 2018. If the 'Skins tag him again, SF not only needs to pay him (probably more than JG),also they have to give up probably more than a mere 2nd-round pick to pry him away from the 'Skins (possibly their 2018 high 1st-rounder). This costs more $$ AND probably more draft pick capital and leaves them with a lot more uncertainty about their 2018 roster until next March or April.

3) Keep the high-2nd, skip Cousins, and spend their high-1st on a inexperienced college prospect who could (eventually) turn out to be another Goff or Wentz, or another Bortles or Tannehill. And, it's likely to be 2019 at the earliest before they know.
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Under the circumstances, the trade seems like a reasonable speculative investment from a position of strength. Even if JG doesn't work out, I don't think SF will have "thrown away" much of anything