Brady / Rodgers

[Wheelman]

Taking off my Pats glasses, the author has a point and the film does back that claim. Three of Edelman's catches were in the first half, two against Alford. One was a nice inside-out that Alford played well. The other was the broken play right before the Blount fumble. After that, there were a bunch of incomplete passes to Edelman with Alford almost exclusively in coverage and defending a few. Edelman's fourth catch came on the highlight play of the game where Alford made a great play nonetheless. His fifth and final catch was that sick throw Brady made in OT with Alford draped all over Julian, even getting his arm on the ball instantly to break it up, but Jules did a great job holding on.

It's a credit to Brady and the offense that they were able to spread the ball around and put up 20pts on drives where Edelman was shut out.

Regards,
Chris

Are you simply basing Alford beating Edelman on incomplete and completed passes? I quickly looked at the plays Edelman was targeted. Edelman was beating Alford almost every time. There was just different issues happening.

One time Edelman dropped the ball and would have had a 1st down breaking Alford's tackle.

Another time Brady threw it behind him. That would have been a TD if Brady threw a better ball.

Another time it looked like Alford had Edelman covered when Brady threw it to him but if you watch the all-22 Edelman clearly had Alford beat and even raised his hand running across the field laterally. but Brady was looking the other way, and then when he finally looked to Edelman(whose route had ended and just slowed) he was getting pressured and just threw it out there what really looks like a throw away as he started to get pressure. That's on Brady I guess for not seeing Edelman when he was open.

There's the deep throw to Edelman that looks like Brady missed Edelman wide open. This is not true. Brady actually threw a perfect ball. The play design was really good too. Problem was Edelman contacted with a Falcons defender as Edelman and Amendola criss-crossed in the deep middle. Brady throws the ball before Edelman and Amendola criss-cross. Edelman rid himself of Alford but unfortunately lost momentum when he contacted the other Falcons defender. You can see this clearly in the broadcasts' closeup replay of Edelman losing momemtum. If Edelman is not slowed down the play looks more similar to Brady to Amendola after the 2 minute warning in the 4th quarter.

Another incompleted pass that technically was Edelman as intended target looks like a throw away because Edelman's route ran to another defender. Maybe Edelman was supposed to stop his route and catch the ball where Brady threw it. Who knows.

Another incompleted pass was Collins on Edelman which either Edelman ran the wrong route or Brady threw it away because Collins covered it well.

There was the play where Brady looked like he made a silly throw to Edelman. But Brady was actually targeting Malcolm Mitchell on that play. Alford gets the credit on this play for not allowing Edelman to run his route and thus getting in the way of Brady's intended target.

There was the deep pass to Edelman where Edelman got open. But let's be real here. Brady and Edelman's deep connection has always sucked for some reason.

These plays aren't in order, just writing it off the top of my head. Sorry I didn't include screenshots, I don't have time to do that right now. But it's all there in the all-22. There's no real debate on what I've stated besides whether Edelman would have broken Alford's tackle or not when he dropped the ball.
I used pro football reference to find Edelman's targets. 5 for 13 targeting Edelman. So if it's not correct let me know.

Super Bowl LI - New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons - February 5th, 2017 | Pro-Football-Reference.com

In conclusion, if your measure of whether Alford won the battle or not is simply whether a ball was completed you are correct. If it's how many times Edelman got open against Alford when targeted, I do not agree.

However, I haven't watched all of the all-22, only Edelman's targets according to pro football reference. Is the writer basing it off of the entire game? or simply when Edelman was targeted according to stats keepers?

When I have a chance I'll watch the all-22 of the entire game and look for when Alford is covering Edelman and see how he fared.

Edit: I only looked at incomplete passes, obviously Alford also made a great play on the miracle catch by Edelman.

 

[chris_in_sunnyvale]

^^ This is a good post. I've watched the broadcast multiple times and Alford shows very well. I've watched some of the All-22 to see where the Pats OL struggles really were, but not the secondary. What will be interesting is on the plays Alford appeared beaten is if he was deliberately trailing a la the circus catch play. Right after that play, he had Edelman on lockdown on a double move, so it's not like he _needed_ help, but rather an attempt by Atlanta to keep Brady guessing...like the trap on the pick 6.

With no Gronk, I thought Quinn's decision to put Alford on Edelman almost all night and get Brady looking elsewhere was brilliant. Fortunately, Brady and the other receivers responded.

Regards,
Chris

 

[Wheelman]

^^ This is a good post. I've watched the broadcast multiple times and Alford shows very well. I've watched some of the All-22 to see where the Pats OL struggles really were, but not the secondary. What will be interesting is on the plays Alford appeared beaten is if he was deliberately trailing a la the circus catch play. Right after that play, he had Edelman on lockdown on a double move, so it's not like he _needed_ help, but rather an attempt by Atlanta to keep Brady guessing...like the trap on the pick 6.

With no Gronk, I thought Quinn's decision to put Alford on Edelman almost all night and get Brady looking elsewhere was brilliant. Fortunately, Brady and the other receivers responded.

Regards,
Chris

On the play where Edelman put up his hand, he was going cross the field so he was open despite Deion Jones in the middle of the field watching Brady. Just had to wait until Edelman cleared Jones. I need to make a correction on the end of this play. Edelman just stops on his route after Brady doesn't see him, then Brady throws it away down the field over them both.

On the criss cross play where it appeared Brady missed a wide open Edelman, Alford either got stuck in the wash(3 Falcons defenders) or he was passing it off to the deep free man in the wash who reacted too late anyways.

On the play where Brady threw it behind Edelman. Looks like Edelman just beat Alford.

The frustrating thing about that game was it was just one guy who screwed up. Whether that's Brady not seeing the open guy, Brady making a bad throw, receiver dropping balls, player not in the right position, o-line not holding his block, etc.

The Pats were never being dominated in that game despite the score. And the Pats players and I think Belichick even said it, despite the score, it never felt like they were out of it. That's because they weren't being dominated despite what delusional Falcons fans believe. It was just one player screwing up every time. Almost every play had opportunity to succeed if you watch the all-22. Finally they managed to click and we saw the results. I'm not taking anything away from the Falcons. They were beating the Patriots. But they were not dominating them. And that showed with the end result.

 

[everlong]

Rodgers is an all time great. The issue is the media needs to create stories and the easiest ones are this guy vs that guy. With Manning gone and that argument buried AR is the second best. The thing that drives me nuts is when they act like his athletic ability and throwing on the run has never been done before. You can make a firm case he's behind Young and Staubach in this class of QB. The numbers won't bear it out because of the eras especially in regards to Staubach but using Young he was clearly a better pocket passer than Rodgers and equally as deadly out of the pocket.

Rodgers is second to Young..........and Montana is second to Brady.

 

[ivanvamp]

The problem is that passing accuracy, certainly as measured by completion percentage, is not just a physical talent.

I believe it was you who pointed out the type of system run will have an innate impact on completion percentage. Ie dumpoffs vs deep bombs.

And it is also a mental attribute. As throwing it "accurately" to the player who is doubled covered is going to probably result in a worse completion percentage than throwing it "inaccurately" to the guy who is wide open.

First, if we are going to argue that passing accuracy isn't really an athletic skill, then it should be removed from the conversation. The three things that were originally mentioned (it was not me who made this list) were: arm strength, accuracy, and athleticism (i.e., running ability). If we want to change the list, that's fine, but that's not really a fair way to measure "QB talent" if we're taking away the actual most important skill of them all. If we're just saying, which QB can run the fastest or throw the ball the furthest, it's like asking which PGA player can hit the ball the furthest, or which baseball player can run the fastest. It's missing a HUGE chunk of what it means.

Second, let's just look at Vick vs. Rodgers in the short passing game (throws that travel 10 yards or less).

Let's take Vick's BEST season (2010). Throws that traveled 10 yards or less represented 63% of his pass attempts:

166-230 (72.2%)

Now let's look at Rodgers' 2016 season, which in terms of completion percentage represented almost a perfectly average year for him. Throws that traveled 10 yards or less represented 63% of his pass attempts:

298-386 (77.2%)

So this is an average year for Rodgers, and the very best year ever for Vick in terms of passing accuracy. And they threw the same percentage of short passes, so it's roughly and apples-to-apples comparison. And Rodgers crushed him in completion percentage on these short passes.

We could slice this up a million ways and it's always going to come out the same: Michael Vick is, simply put, not even remotely in Aaron Rodgers' class when it comes to passing accuracy, which is the number one SKILL for an NFL quarterback. Deus complains about my argument, but I'm using actual data, I'm using a fair analysis of the relative merits of each skill that someone else put on the list (not me). He's simply stomping around saying, "That's stupid. That's dumb. You're wrong. That's a bad argument." Blah blah blah.

Vick probably has a stronger arm than Rodgers (though Rodgers has a GREAT arm). He's definitely a better athlete (though Rodgers is a GREAT athlete). But Vick can't even sniff Rodgers' jock when it comes to passing accuracy. And because of that ENORMOUS discrepancy in the MOST important skill a QB needs (certainly of these three items we've been talking about) there's no way you can argue that Michael Vick has more QB talent than Aaron Rodgers. No way. You can *claim* it, but you can't make a real argument for it.

 

[Simpelton]

The problem is that passing accuracy, certainly as measured by completion percentage, is not just a physical talent.

No attribute of quarterbacking is just a physical talent.

Passing accuracy is heavily talent based, you can tell the difference between guys who have that pinpoint accuracy and the guys who throw to a zone.

By any standard in which passing accuracy should not be considered to be a critical physical talent for a quarterback, NO attribute of the quarterbacking game should be considered a critical physical talent.

 

[Nehalem]

No attribute of quarterbacking is just a physical talent.

Passing accuracy is heavily talent based, you can tell the difference between guys who have that pinpoint accuracy and the guys who throw to a zone.

By any standard in which passing accuracy should not be considered to be a critical physical talent for a quarterback, NO attribute of the quarterbacking game should be considered a critical physical talent.

Passing accuracy is fairly regarded a physical talent.

The real problem is with using Comp% to measure it. As it will obviously be a product of being able to throw the ball accurately and reading a defense properly. For example Vick might/might-not be able to throw the ball down the field 40 yards with pin point accuracy. But if he doesn't see/account for the FS and the FS breaks up his perfectly thrown ball he isn't getting a completion.

Basically using Comp% to measure accuracy is like using YPA/YPC to measure arm strength.

There are obviously QBs that really suck at accuracy like Tim Tebow:

WEAKNESSES
Tebow really struggles with his accuracy. Release is far to slow to fit balls into spots against NFL defensive backs. Release point and mechanics (elongated, wind-mill delivery which comes out too low) likely need to be altered.

NFL Events: Combine Player Profiles - Tim Tebow

Unfortunately I am having a hard time finding a similar scouting report on vick: Only one I really found was 2001 NFL Draft: Michael Vick

Don't know if that is a real reputable source, but this it what it says:

Has a snappy overhead delivery and a good feel for reading defenses...Knows how to lay the ball away from defenders on his deep tosses and shows good touch on his post patterns

Puts impressive zip behind his short tosses, threading the needle on his slants

and as negative:

Sometimes gets too confident in his running skills, forgetting to eye his secondary receivers in order to run with the ball when his primary target is not available...Tends to get into a three-quarter throwing motion as the game wears on, taking a little zip off his tosses... Has a little bit of a wind-up in his release when throwing long, which makes his receivers work a little harder in order to get to the ball

This does not read to me as though he has Tebow-esque accuracy issues, but did coming out of college have issues with making progressions, and liked to run instead of throw.

 

[PatsDeb]

Taking off my Pats glasses, the author has a point and the film does back that claim. Three of Edelman's catches were in the first half, two against Alford. One was a nice inside-out that Alford played well. The other was the broken play right before the Blount fumble. After that, there were a bunch of incomplete passes to Edelman with Alford almost exclusively in coverage and defending a few. Edelman's fourth catch came on the highlight play of the game where Alford made a great play nonetheless. His fifth and final catch was that sick throw Brady made in OT with Alford draped all over Julian, even getting his arm on the ball instantly to break it up, but Jules did a great job holding on.

It's a credit to Brady and the offense that they were able to spread the ball around and put up 20pts on drives where Edelman was shut out.

Regards,
Chris

LOL, I never take off my Pats' glasses ;-)

 

[ivanvamp]

Passing accuracy is fairly regarded a physical talent.

The real problem is with using Comp% to measure it. As it will obviously be a product of being able to throw the ball accurately and reading a defense properly. For example Vick might/might-not be able to throw the ball down the field 40 yards with pin point accuracy. But if he doesn't see/account for the FS and the FS breaks up his perfectly thrown ball he isn't getting a completion.

Basically using Comp% to measure accuracy is like using YPA/YPC to measure arm strength.

There are obviously QBs that really suck at accuracy like Tim Tebow: NFL Events: Combine Player Profiles - Tim Tebow

Unfortunately I am having a hard time finding a similar scouting report on vick: Only one I really found was 2001 NFL Draft: Michael Vick

Don't know if that is a real reputable source, but this it what it says:

and as negative:


This does not read to me as though he has Tebow-esque accuracy issues, but did coming out of college have issues with making progressions, and liked to run instead of throw.

You make an interesting point. But how in the world are we fans supposed to evaluate these things then? We don't know whether a receiver was supposed to run his route 9 yards or 8 yards, and if the throw is off by a yard, is that the WRs fault or the QBs fault?

Similarly, one reason Brady has put up such huge numbers (same with Peyton) is that they not only complete passes, they tend to put the ball right where it needs to be so their receivers can keep running in stride. I remember McNabb would often complete passes, but they often would be a little behind a receiver, etc., so that YAC would suffer.

But if you have an entire career's worth of data to work with, completion percentage is going to give you a pretty good look at a QBs accuracy. I mean, we have 3,217 NFL pass attempts for Vick to evaluate. That's plenty enough to get a good gauge as to whether he's an accurate passer or not and the fact is....he's not. He just isn't. (by NFL standards, of course)

What other way, really, besides completion percentage, do we have to evaluate this?

 

[pmb116]

(same with Peyton) is that they not only complete passes, they tend to put the ball right where it needs to be so their receivers can keep running in stride.

Peyton was infamous for putting the ball up to hang his receivers out to dry. Lol.

 

[ivanvamp]

Peyton was infamous for putting the ball up to hang his receivers out to dry. Lol.

On some over the middle throws, yes. But he hit guys in stride all the time.

 

[rochrist]

I don't know exactly what it is but this analysis is in some way too simplistic. I do think Brady is the GOAT.

However, Rodgers has a over 4 to 1 TD/INT ration... and his career rating is like 104. It is entirely possible that he is so good, that his improvisation actually ends up in a better result (for him anyway) than an instant good read. (and obviously based on TD/INT ration and QB rating it is consistently excellent.)

That said, winning is the only thing that matters (Super Bowls, but also just games in general) Tom Brady is the winning-est QB of all time without debate.

Somewhat skewed because he didn't become a starter until pass defense had been disallowed. Brady before pass defense was disallowed: 89. After pass defense was disallowed: 103. In other words, during the same time Rodgers put up a 104 rating, Brady was putting up a 103. While going to 4 SBs and winning 2.

 

[Nehalem]

You make an interesting point. But how in the world are we fans supposed to evaluate these things then? We don't know whether a receiver was supposed to run his route 9 yards or 8 yards, and if the throw is off by a yard, is that the WRs fault or the QBs fault?

My point isn't so much that a WR might be responsible for an incompletion. But that an incompletion can be caused by not only bad accuracy, but by a bad QBing decision, or inability to read a defense.

Launching a perfect precision pass to a WR who is double covered is not how you make completions.

Similarly, one reason Brady has put up such huge numbers (same with Peyton) is that they not only complete passes, they tend to put the ball right where it needs to be so their receivers can keep running in stride. I remember McNabb would often complete passes, but they often would be a little behind a receiver, etc., so that YAC would suffer.

McNabb also had crap receivers. And the one time he had a good one (TO) he completed 64% of his passes and went to the Super Bowl.

But if you have an entire career's worth of data to work with, completion percentage is going to give you a pretty good look at a QBs accuracy. I mean, we have 3,217 NFL pass attempts for Vick to evaluate. That's plenty enough to get a good gauge as to whether he's an accurate passer or not and the fact is....he's not. He just isn't. (by NFL standards, of course)

What other way, really, besides completion percentage, do we have to evaluate this?

What stat do you look at to determine a QBs speed or agility? What stat do you look at to determine a QBs arm-strength? The answer is there really isn't one. But for speed and agility there are combine measurements. And arm strength is something that is fairly easy to scout and therefore becomes "common knowledge".

Really the only way to truly determine a QBs accuracy(as a physical talent) would be to personally run them so drills and do extensive film review.

And quite frankly Rodgers almost certainly is more accurate than Vick. I just think Vick's problems as a quarterback are not cause by an subpar inherent inaccuracy.

I mean the guy did put up one elite year with 62.6%comp and 8.1ypa(ypa attempt are also important to adjust for longer throws). If Vick truly couldn't throw the ball accurately I don't think he could have put up such a season. Vick's low career incompletion percentage are probably more a result of immaturity pre-prison and overly relying on his athleticism rather than poor accuracy.

 

[ivanvamp]

My point isn't so much that a WR might be responsible for an incompletion. But that an incompletion can be caused by not only bad accuracy, but by a bad QBing decision, or inability to read a defense.

Launching a perfect precision pass to a WR who is double covered is not how you make completions.



McNabb also had crap receivers. And the one time he had a good one (TO) he completed 64% of his passes and went to the Super Bowl.



What stat do you look at to determine a QBs speed or agility? What stat do you look at to determine a QBs arm-strength? The answer is there really isn't one. But for speed and agility there are combine measurements. And arm strength is something that is fairly easy to scout and therefore becomes "common knowledge".

Really the only way to truly determine a QBs accuracy(as a physical talent) would be to personally run them so drills and do extensive film review.

And quite frankly Rodgers almost certainly is more accurate than Vick. I just think Vick's problems as a quarterback are not cause by an subpar inherent inaccuracy.

I mean the guy did put up one elite year with 62.6%comp and 8.1ypa(ypa attempt are also important to adjust for longer throws). If Vick truly couldn't throw the ball accurately I don't think he could have put up such a season. Vick's low career incompletion percentage are probably more a result of immaturity pre-prison and overly relying on his athleticism rather than poor accuracy.

He was a very inaccurate passer, plain and simple. He had one season in his life where he completed more than 60% of his passes. Plenty of data to go on for this. If he was truly an accurate passer, it would have shown up somewhere along the way in his career.

 

[patsfan13]

Well ESPY's show sizzle sells, Rogers over Brady for best NFL player.

What a joke. Patriots snubbed to maximum extent possible by punks at ESPN.

 

[sean10mm]

I think the ESPYs are just internet voted on. It's whoever bothered to click on their site that chose the winners. Kind of the definition of meaningless white noise.

It's an excuse for everyone to put on a suit and hang out and watch Peyton Manning tell dad jokes and get burned by Patriots.

 

[denverpatsfan]

Gonna settle this in the Super Bowl. Let's hope losing Bennett doesn't come back to haunt us.

 

[bormio]

Bleacher Report put out a list of the 25 most clutch QBs of all-time. Guess who did not make the list - Mr. Hail Mary. I don't think think Otto Graham did either - but they just beat the snot out of people.

 

[Buchanty]

The QB-du-jour v Brady debate reminds me of my days reviewing staff. Leaving out the JAGs it came down to three qualities of key employees: Their skill levels and how much they know about the business, how well they work with others in the business, and most importantly how productive they are within the business. Statistics, and hard and soft skills mean little if they cannot drive and grow sustainable success.

Sports media-tainment thrives on visuals, both athletic and statistical, which captivate audiences. Productivity, while much more critically important, barely registers as an attraction.

 

[sean10mm]

Credit where it's due, Aaron Rodgers is really good. The Packers are a well run organization, but nobody is claiming McCarthy is in the same zip code as Belichick, not even Packer fans.

Dude is not clutch though. Crazy fact: Tony Romo had 2.5 times as many comeback wins as Aaron Rodgers, in fewer games started. He doesn't see much adversity, but when he does adversity usually wins.