Projected 53 man roster

[rookBoston]

(1) Bolden makes the team. He's one of those guys that the staff value more than the fans-- kinda like the fans always talked about Larry Izzo getting cut each pre-season, even though it would never have happened. With just too many RBs, unless someone goes to IR, I'm going to say Lewis gets traded to make the roster space. Lewis is electric, but not reliable... always seems to be hanging by a hamstring.

(2) And for some reason, I think Grissom makes the team. No special insight here, just my hunch and the fact that everyone else seems to have written him off. For me, it's no sure thing that Ealy makes the roster at all, and the draft picks will need to show something in TC to earn the spot. Also, Ninkovich is nearing the end of his career-- if all the kids step up and prove they deserve it ahead of him, Rob may decide to retire.

(3) LB competition is worth watching. Part of the complexity is that it's a real mixed bag of skills-- some rushers, some run defenders, some pass coverage.

(4) my only other thought is that the OP 53-man is just "too safe". In all my years of watching the pre-season team come together, there's always the no name UDFA that earns a spot on the team through sheer hard work. BB loves to choose the underdog in any situation where it's too close to call. There's often a "sure thing" solid vet that gets shipped out to make space... like Mankins... maybe we'll have something like that this year.

This year more than almost any other, it's tough to see which guy is going to be unemployed to make room for that no-name guy. My choice for 2017 long shot winner is Will Likely. Just throwing darts here, but not without cause. I'm just going to suppose that he wins the KR job from Cyrus Jones who either gets traded for a bag of peanuts or sent to the waiver wire. Maybe Cyrus comes back on the PS, but most likely he's gone to another team as a reclamation project. Just sayin.

 

[Family]

This is the most chalk roster I've ever seen in the NFL. Everyone pretty much agrees:

QB -3 Tom Brady, Jimmy Garoppolo, Jacoby Brissett
RB - 5 Mike Gillislee, James White, Rex Burkhead, Dion Lewis, James Develin. Some have Foster. Few have Bolden.
WR - 6 Julian Edelman, Brandin Cooks, Chris Hogan, Malcolm Mitchell, Danny Amendola, Matthew Slater A few mention Hawkins.
TE - 2 Rob Gronkowski, Dwayne Allen Most have O'Shaugnessy and some have Develin as third TE.
OL - 8 - Nate Solder, Marcus Cannon, Tony Garcia, Joe Thuney, Shaq Mason, David Andrews, Ted Karras. Many have Fleming or McDermott as the 9th OL and some have one of the others.

Offense: 24

DL - 8 Alan Branch, Malcolm Brown, Vincent Valentine, Lawrence Guy, Trey Flowers, Kony Ealy, Rob Ninkovich, Derek Rivers, Deatrich Wise Nink is mostly in this group, but some have a surprise cut.
LB - 4 - Don’t’a Hightower, Kyle van Noy, Elandon Roberts, Shea McClellin. Lots of Harvey Langi chatter. Nobody likes Freeney.
DB's - 10 Stephon Gilmore, Malcolm Butler, Eric Rowe, Cyrus Jones, Jonathan Jones, Devin McCourty, Duron Harmon, Brandon King, Patrick Chung, Nate Ebner. A few wonder about Cyrus Jones and Brandon King. Some have Jordan Richards and there's scattered mention of undrafted FAs.

Defense: 22

Special teams - 3 Stephen Gostkowski, Ryan Allen, Joe Cardona

That's 49 of the 53 pretty much unanimous. We might as well just list those 4. I'll add (guess) Fleming, O'Shaunghessy, Jordan Richards (Chung needs backup), and Langi (we need one rookie FA).

 

[BobDigital]

Did you forget McDermott or you really think he doesn't make the team?

I think he is a practice squad guy. I don't think he makes the team and I don't think they need to be overly concerned with someone stealing him. He is a long term late round project. If I am the Pats I want at least 1 of my 2 backup tackles to have some NFL experience and they can't really carry 5.

 

[Bruins29]

That's 49 of the 53 pretty much unanimous. We might as well just list those 4. I'll add (guess) Fleming, O'Shaunghessy, Jordan Richards (Chung needs backup), and Langi (we need one rookie FA).

When was the last time BB released someone who took a paycut to stay with the team?

 

[BobDigital]

Some thoughts about why I picked what I picked.

IOL - I think they need to carry that 5th IOL guy on the roster cause neither Flemming or Garcia I think is able to back up the IOL well at the NFL level and having 1 backup for all 3 spots on the 53 just seems unreasonable to me. I think someone we have will prove worthy of the spot. If no one does then a trade happens cause going in with only 4 guys you can depend on to play 3 spots is too irresponsible.

TE - I don't see the need to carry a 3rd TE on the 53 just cause there really is no one worth carrying and Develin backups that spot. I think carrying 2 with Develin and keeping a TE or 2 on the practice squad is fine as we don't have a TE we need to protect after the top 2. Also during game day action if we are low on TEs the solution will be more Cooks/Edelman and 3rd down back and running as that is where the talent is instead of trying to force an untalented TE to have a bigger role.

RB - I think Foster makes the team for the fact he won't make the practice squad and we know how much potential he has and how much they value that RBs that can catch and run. I think at least one of Gillislee or Burkhead won't be back next year likely so losing Foster this year would hurt for next year. Maybe they try to stash him in the middle of the year but to not put him on the 53 is saying good bye to him and I am not for that considering this could be Lewis's last year here and his injury concerns. Also as for Bolden it is in some ways a bold cut to predict but frankly he just had a bad year last year and I think that matters a lot. J. Jones and B. King offered a lot more on STs than he did and Foster offers more as a RB. Unless he is a STs ace (which he hasn't really been the last 2 years) I don't see the value here.

OT - I don't see the big deal about cutting McDermott. He is an interesting project but that is all. I see no issue getting him on the practice squad if they want him there. Team's are not circling around to scoop him up out from under us. If teams felt that way about him he would not have been left on the board till pick 211. Also I think Flemming has a lot more value clearly. He played well at times last year and has been with the team for a while and comes on on occasion to add beef to a run formation.

LB - Honestly this is the spot I have the most mixed feelings about. At this point anyone but Hightower and i think Langi is not safe. Bold to say that about Langi but i think there is really something there and he is showing it already.

CB - I just don't see how the Pats cut Cyrus Jones this year. It would cost him more to cut him than keep him and as long as he keeps trying they probably should see if he can get out of his head (it is all mental for him after all). Though i would hate see Moore cut as I think he'd be hard to get on the PS that is how it is sometimes.

S - This is a tough one. I think we have 4 locks then it comes down to King vs Richards. As someone said besides Richards we don't really have a Chung back up. That is a fair point but honestly I am not sold he can do the job anyway. I like the kid but if we are not confident he can do the job if Chung goes down maybe we'd be better of with Harmon/McCourty and having either Rowe on the TE or J. Jones on the RB and just mixing and matching. I think that is what they would do. I just think King is too good on STs to just let walk. He really is almost as good as Ebner/Slater/J. Jones IMO and a reason why we didn't allow any huge returns last year. I just don't think we should let such an asset walk when I think the solution to a Chung injury comes more from mixing and matching than the 4th safety at this point.

 

[Family]

When was the last time BB released someone who took a paycut to stay with the team?

Who has taken a paycut? Not Bolden. He agreed to a new contract for less.

Who am I missing?

 

[tasmlab]

Wouldn't be shocked at all to see Bolden make the squad. He's done it for five seasons now and seems to always be active. Coaches see more value in him than we do.

Can Jacoby Brisset go to the practice squad? That's his job anyways, just to practice, play scout team, and get better himself. Doesn't seem like he needs to take up a spot to add the identical amount of value to the team.

 

[Bruins29]

Who has taken a paycut? Not Bolden. He agreed to a new contract for less.

Who am I missing?

I'll give you a hint. He has taken 3 paycuts and is really, really clutch.

 

[Family]

I'll give you a hint. He has taken 3 paycuts and is really, really clutch.

My bad. If you notice I had the number six receivers, but forgot to type his name.

Yes he's all all rosters I saw.

 

[long distance]

TE - I don't see the need to carry a 3rd TE on the 53 just cause there really is no one worth carrying and Develin backups that spot. I think carrying 2 with Develin and keeping a TE or 2 on the practice squad is fine as we don't have a TE we need to protect after the top 2. Also during game day action if we are low on TEs the solution will be more Cooks/Edelman and 3rd down back and running as that is where the talent is instead of trying to force an untalented TE to have a bigger role.

1. They will not go into the season with only 2 TE . Gronk and Allen. (& I saw no reports of Pats abandoning true 2TE sets after signing Cooks etc.)
2. Develin can be emergency option during the game but not a roster backup TE.
3. Its not easy to stash solid TE backup on PS as last season showed. Hollister, possibly even Lengel will have suitors..
4. And “no one worth carrying“ sounds a bit presumptuous, especially since TC hasn't even started yet. By everything I could see and read O’Shaughnessy should be well worth carrying both as a TE and STer.

 

[varjao]

I dont get why so many here think Foster will make the team. Only if he outplays someone of the other 4 in training camp and take that spot, not as an additional #5 RB.

 

[mgteich]

I guess I don't see the need for the 5th IOL to be on the 53, especially when there are several to pick from. I expect 2-3 to be on the Practice Squad.

I'd rather use the roster spot on a 5th safety, either a special teamer like King or a backup SS.

Here is the whole 90-man squad with my 53-man prediction in bold:
Offense: (25)
QB(3): Tom Brady, Jimmy Garoppolo, Jacoby Brissett (3)
RB(5): Mike Gillislee, James White, Rex Burkhead, Dion Lewis, D.J. Foster, Brandon Bolden, LeShun Daniels Jr.
FB(1): James Develin, Glenn Gronkowski (2)
TE(3): Rob Gronkowski, Dwayne Allen, James O’Shaugnessy, Matt Lengel, Jacob Hollister, Sam Cotton
WR(5): Julian Edelman, Brandin Cooks, Chris Hogan, Malcolm Mitchell, Danny Amendola, Austin Carr, Devin Lucien, Devin Street, Cody Hollister, DeAndrew White Andrew Hawkins(11)
T(4): Nate Solder, Marcus Cannon, Tony Garcia, Cameron Fleming, LaAdrian Waddle, Connor McDermott, Cole Croston, Max Rich, Chase Farris, Andrew Jelks (10)
IOL(5): Joe Thuney, Shaq Mason, Jamil Douglas, David Andrews, Ted Karras, Jason King, James Ferentz,

Defense: (24)
EDGE(5): Trey Flowers, Kony Ealy, Rob Ninkovich, Derek Rivers, Deatrich Wise, Geneo Grissom
DT(4): Alan Branch, Malcolm Brown, Vincent Valentine, Lawrence Guy, Woodrow Hamilton, Darius Kilgo, Josh Augusta, Adam Butler
LB(5): Don’t’a Hightower, Kyle van Noy, Elandon Roberts, Shea McClellin, Jonathan Freeney, Harvey Langi, Brooks Ellis, Trevor Bates
CB(5): Stephon Gilmore, Malcolm Butler, Eric Rowe, Cyrus Jones, Jonathan Jones, Justin Coleman, Kenny Moore, Dwayne Thomas, D.J. Killings, Will Likely
FS(2): Devin McCourty, Duron Harmon, Brandon King, Damarius Travis
SS(2): Patrick Chung, Nate Ebner, David Jones, Jason Thompson, Jordan Richards

Specialists: (4)
K: Stephen Gostkowski
P: Ryan Allen
LS: Joe Cardona
ST: Matthew Slater

Total: 53

 

[mgteich]

IOL
Last year, we carried 8 OL's, the same that almost everyone is saying to carry this year. We carried 3 OL's on the Practice Squad Two of the Practice Squad players are back; one could be added from the UDFA's. My bottom line is that we'll have Garcia instead of Waddle. And just BTW, Fleming is an emergency OG, and might be activated if a guard were injured.

This is NOT an issue of the Game Day squad. The 9th OL would be inactive. A backup can easily be added for the next game.

Sure, I'd love for Belichick to sign a veteran backup and carry 9 OL's. However, there is no reason to fill the spot if the player (or a relatively equal player) could be placed on the Practice Squad and activated if needed.

Some thoughts about why I picked what I picked.

IOL - I think they need to carry that 5th IOL guy on the roster cause neither Flemming or Garcia I think is able to back up the IOL well at the NFL level and having 1 backup for all 3 spots on the 53 just seems unreasonable to me. I think someone we have will prove worthy of the spot. If no one does then a trade happens cause going in with only 4 guys you can depend on to play 3 spots is too irresponsible.

TE - I don't see the need to carry a 3rd TE on the 53 just cause there really is no one worth carrying and Develin backups that spot. I think carrying 2 with Develin and keeping a TE or 2 on the practice squad is fine as we don't have a TE we need to protect after the top 2. Also during game day action if we are low on TEs the solution will be more Cooks/Edelman and 3rd down back and running as that is where the talent is instead of trying to force an untalented TE to have a bigger role.

RB - I think Foster makes the team for the fact he won't make the practice squad and we know how much potential he has and how much they value that RBs that can catch and run. I think at least one of Gillislee or Burkhead won't be back next year likely so losing Foster this year would hurt for next year. Maybe they try to stash him in the middle of the year but to not put him on the 53 is saying good bye to him and I am not for that considering this could be Lewis's last year here and his injury concerns. Also as for Bolden it is in some ways a bold cut to predict but frankly he just had a bad year last year and I think that matters a lot. J. Jones and B. King offered a lot more on STs than he did and Foster offers more as a RB. Unless he is a STs ace (which he hasn't really been the last 2 years) I don't see the value here.

OT - I don't see the big deal about cutting McDermott. He is an interesting project but that is all. I see no issue getting him on the practice squad if they want him there. Team's are not circling around to scoop him up out from under us. If teams felt that way about him he would not have been left on the board till pick 211. Also I think Flemming has a lot more value clearly. He played well at times last year and has been with the team for a while and comes on on occasion to add beef to a run formation.

LB - Honestly this is the spot I have the most mixed feelings about. At this point anyone but Hightower and i think Langi is not safe. Bold to say that about Langi but i think there is really something there and he is showing it already.

CB - I just don't see how the Pats cut Cyrus Jones this year. It would cost him more to cut him than keep him and as long as he keeps trying they probably should see if he can get out of his head (it is all mental for him after all). Though i would hate see Moore cut as I think he'd be hard to get on the PS that is how it is sometimes.

S - This is a tough one. I think we have 4 locks then it comes down to King vs Richards. As someone said besides Richards we don't really have a Chung back up. That is a fair point but honestly I am not sold he can do the job anyway. I like the kid but if we are not confident he can do the job if Chung goes down maybe we'd be better of with Harmon/McCourty and having either Rowe on the TE or J. Jones on the RB and just mixing and matching. I think that is what they would do. I just think King is too good on STs to just let walk. He really is almost as good as Ebner/Slater/J. Jones IMO and a reason why we didn't allow any huge returns last year. I just don't think we should let such an asset walk when I think the solution to a Chung injury comes more from mixing and matching than the 4th safety at this point.

 

[supafly]

IOL
Last year, we carried 8 OL's, the same that almost everyone is saying to carry this year.

You are well versed in predicting the 53 man roster over the years, so I am curious as to how often the team keeps 8 vs 9 offensive linemen.

I suppose it doesn't matter that much this year if Fleming makes it, as he can offer time at guard, too, but there's a concern for lack of experience/talent. I'd have to imagine that could be argued every single year, though.

As you've mentioned, it makes more sense to keep the last couple of interior spots on the PS if it's an option.

 

[Joker]

gee whiz...I really hope BB figures something out fast about this roster...I'm gettin' scared....

 

[supafly]

I dont get why so many here think Foster will make the team. Only if he outplays someone of the other 4 in training camp and take that spot, not as an additional #5 RB.

Injury scenarios, too, but I agree that some seem to be overvaluing him a bit, which happens every year with some players.

That said, I believe that he definitely has a shot.

 

[supafly]

gee whiz...I really hope BB figures something out fast about this roster...I'm gettin' scared....

Well, to be fair, if we're discussing the IOL spots, it's reasonable to most that names like Farris, Karras, Douglas, etc would be considered to have a lack of experience/talent.

As I stated, that could likely be argued for most years so it shouldn't be terribly concerning. Having the ability to carry 1-2 of these spots on the PS could open up space for special teams only players, or a 6th RB/FB like Foster.

 

[DarrylS]

Am a huge fan of 33 year old Rob Ninkovich, but wonder he is on the bubble???.. IMO BB is retooling the D to make it faster and not sure Ninkovich will fit this mold..

There will also be some cuts in TC where we might find our 5th IOL..

Langi is my choice for UDFA who will become our Binky in 2017...

 

[Zuma]

QB - 3 Brady, Garoppolo, Brissett
RB - 6 Gillislee, White, Burkhead, Lewis, Develin, Foster
WR - 6 Edelman, Cooks, Hogan, Mitchell, Amendola, Slater
TE - 3 Gronkowski, Allen, O'Shaugnessy
OL - 8 Solder, Cannon, Garcia, Thuney, Mason, Andrews, Karras, McDermott

Offense: 26

DL - 8 Branch, Brown, Valentine, Guy, Flowers, Ealy, Rivers, Wise
LB - 6 Hightower, Van Noy, Roberts, McClellin, Langi, Freeney
DB - 10 Gilmore, Butler, Rowe, J. Jones, C. Jones, Coleman, McCourty, Harmon, Chung, Ebner

Defense: 24

ST - 3 Gostkowski, Allen, Cardona

 

[mgteich]

I don't have the numbers. Perhaps some else has them. However, as I recall we "usually" keep 9 OL's and relatively often have 8 or 10. We sometimes keep 10 when we have a rookie starter or an injured starter.

FACTORS (IMHO)

1) EXPERIENCE makes a big difference. This year we have five starters returning, plus our two best backup players (Fleming, Karras). So, our Game Day 7 are returning. More experience will likely improve the OL, along with the health of Gronkowksi. Sometimes we have a need to carry one or two developmental players. For example, I could see carrying McDermott as a 9th OL, knowing that he would be likely be inactive all year.

2) FLEXIBILITY is important. Both backups play at least 2 positions. as do some of the starters. Also note that our Game Day 7 is back. So, we are discussing what inactive players might be Game Day backups if there is an injury.

3) The FUTURE must be covered. We are fine at OT with our starters plus Fleming. However, Solder might leave after the season, so we need a top youngster at OT. The other four are here for at least a couple of years.

Garcia should be able to be the inactive OT who is an emergency OT for 2017. (We almost always keep 4 OT's with one being able to cover OG or blocking TE). If not, then we need another OT, either McDermott or Waddle.

With regard to OG/OC, we have one key youngster backup in Karras, and we know he can play. So, where is the emergency backup at OG/OC? Fleming is likely that player at OG (and blocking TE), and Mason or Thuney as center. Remember, we are discussing the 2 emergency injury option.

4) The expanded PRACTICE SQUAD can be used for the emergency backup at OG.
We have Douglas and Farris, and are likely to have 3 OG's on the Practice Squad as we did last year. If he have 3 capable of being the emergency guard, then the Practice Squad is the place to keep this backup. In addition, the staff has shown the willingness and ability to pick up an experienced OG during the season from the pool of the unemployed. Finding a backup as good as say Douglas isn't really that difficult, but we would also have 3 Practice Squad players to choose from.

BOTTOM LINE
We are well covered in our starters, Game Day backups, future OT, OG prospect, and 5th IOL (both Fleming and Practice Squad).

That being said, I am fine with the team picking up a veteran OG or OC, and am fine with keeping McDermott. As of now, it seems that there are better uses of this roster position (special teams, SS, and 3rd TE).

You are well versed in predicting the 53 man roster over the years, so I am curious as to how often the team keeps 8 vs 9 offensive linemen.

I suppose it doesn't matter that much this year if Fleming makes it, as he can offer time at guard, too, but there's a concern for lack of experience/talent. I'd have to imagine that could be argued every single year, though.

As you've mentioned, it makes more sense to keep the last couple of interior spots on the PS if it's an option.