Projected 53 man roster

[goheels22002]

Work in progress... I know I have too many guys and perhaps made a couple veteran cuts that I shouldn't have. I'll come back and adjust when I get a chance.

Offense:
QB: Tom Brady, Jimmy Garoppolo, Jacoby Brissett
RB: Mike Gillislee, Rex Burkhead, James White, Dion Lewis, LeShun Daniels, Brandon Bolden
FB: James Develin, Glenn Gronkowski
TE: Rob Gronkowski, Dwayne Allen, James O'Shaughnessy, Jacob Hollister, Rob Housler, Matt Lengel
WR: Brandin Cooks, Julian Edelman, Chris Hogan, Austin Carr, DJ Foster, Cody Hollister, Malcolm Mitchell, Danny Amendola, Devin Lucein
OT: Nate Solder, Marcus Cannon, Anthony Garcia, Cameron Fleming, Conor McDermott, Max Rich, LaAdrian Waddle
OG: Joe Thuney, Shaq Mason, Ted Karras, Chase Farris, Jason King, Cole Croston, Jamil Douglas, Greg Pyke
C: David Andrews

Defense:
0,1,2 Tech: Malcolm Brown, Vincent Valentine, Darius Kilgo, Woodrow Hamilton, Josh Augusta
3,4 Tech: Lawrence Guy, Adam Butler, Alan Branch
4,5 Tech: Kony Ealy, Deatrich Wise
5,7 Tech: Trey Flowers, Geneo Grissom
7,9 Tech: Rob Ninkovich, Derek Rivers, Shea McClellin, Jonathan Freeny, Corey Vereen
LB: Dont'a Hightower, David Harris, Elandon Roberts, Harvey Langi, Kyle Van Noy, Trevor Bates
CB: Malcolm Butler, Stephen Gilmore, Eric Rowe, Cyrus Jones, Jonathan Jones, Justin Coleman, DJ Killings, Dwayne Thomas, Kenny Moore
SS: Patrick Chung, Jason Thompson, Jordan Richards, Damarius Travis
FS: Devin McCourtney, David Jones, Duron Harmon

Specialists:
K: Stephen Gostkowski
P: Ryan Allen
LS: Joe Cardona
RET: DJ Foster, Cyrus Jones, Julian Edelman
COV: Nate Ebner, Brandon King, Matt Slater

Two observations:

1. The backups and players that don't make this roster could win the AFC South

2. No chance the Patriots carry four TEs. Two plus a practice squad: Gronk, Allen and PS for O'Shaughnessy or Lengel

 

[supafly]

As most of us are expecting double digit cap space, or something very close to it to be carried over to next season, let's start looking at some bubble players that could be the most likely candidates to be cut :

McClellin--LB--3.3m

Freeny--LB--2.2m

Surely at least one of them goes, although an argument could be made that neither of them really justify those types of cap hits. Some of the factors that may contribute are the development of guys like Langi and Bates, as well as the STOP competition. As always, injuries will be a factor.

Waddle--OT--1.1m

Any others jumping out to anyone?

 

[supafly]

Two observations:

1. The backups and players that don't make this roster could win the AFC South

2. No chance the Patriots carry four TEs. Two plus a practice squad: Gronk, Allen and PS for O'Shaughnessy or Lengel

I think people are getting a bit carried away with this idea. I would have to guess that we could easily cut the roster from 90 all the way down to 70 or so, without people even batting an eye or recognizing any names. Even then, you could likely shave off another 5-10 players without missing too much.

I fully agree with you that there's no need to carry 4 TEs, but I do think 3 are necessary.

Edit: grammar

 

[luuked]

As most of us are expecting double digit cap space, or something very close to it to be carried over to next season, let's start looking at some bubble players that could be the most likely candidates to be cut :

McClellin--LB--3.3m

Freeny--LB--2.2m

Surely at least one of them goes, although an argument could be made that neither of them really justify those types of cap hits. Some of the factors that may contribute are the development of guys like Langi and Bates, as well as the STOP competition. As always, injuries will be a factor.

Waddle--OT--1.1m

Any others jumping out to anyone?

I have been saying since February that McClellin will need a strong camp because the contract and his lack of true impact on defense make him a prime candidate for a TC cut. Even more so than Freeney because BB and the staff seem to be inexplicably in love with him according to some beat guys. Both could easily end up on the outside looking in if Langi & co. can put together a strong showing.

With Waddle I would be more careful because you are always one OT injury away from jeopardizing your season. Personally, I'd rather have the depth there even if it means carrying one more OL body.

Can't wait for camp to start. It will be a fun season..

 

[mgteich]

I suspect that one of McClellan or Freeny will make it. There both are very good special teamers. The role of the last 1-3 LB's is to be top special teamers, or developmental players.

As most of us are expecting double digit cap space, or something very close to it to be carried over to next season, let's start looking at some bubble players that could be the most likely candidates to be cut :

McClellin--LB--3.3m

Freeny--LB--2.2m

Surely at least one of them goes, although an argument could be made that neither of them really justify those types of cap hits. Some of the factors that may contribute are the development of guys like Langi and Bates, as well as the STOP competition. As always, injuries will be a factor.

Waddle--OT--1.1m

Any others jumping out to anyone?

 

[jmt57]

As most of us are expecting double digit cap space, or something very close to it to be carried over to next season, let's start looking at some bubble players that could be the most likely candidates to be cut :

McClellin--LB--3.3m

Freeny--LB--2.2m

Surely at least one of them goes, although an argument could be made that neither of them really justify those types of cap hits. Some of the factors that may contribute are the development of guys like Langi and Bates, as well as the STOP competition. As always, injuries will be a factor.

Waddle--OT--1.1m

Any others jumping out to anyone?

I am not suggesting that any of these players should or will be cut. Just looking at some of the numbers.

Cap Savings ---- Dead Money --- Player
$2,450,000 ---- $1,666,666 --- Shea McClellin
$1,797,000 ---- --- zero -- ----- Cameron Fleming
$1,400,000 ---- $950,000 ---- Rob Ninkovich
$1,400,000 ---- $300,000 ---- Matt Slater
$1,287,500 ---- $200,000 ----- Dion Lewis
$1,125,000 ----- $673,333 ----- Jonathan Freeny
$1,115,741 ------ --- zero --- ----- Kyle Van Noy
$1,000,000 ---- $125,000 ----- LaAdrian Waddle
$903,660 ------ --- zero --- ----- Kony Ealy
$878,624 ------ --- zero --- ----- Eric Rowe
$645,000 ------ --- zero --- ----- Brandon Bolden

 

[ausbacker]

Branch is our best DL. Full stop.

I like a lot of the rookie players, but your projected cuts are crazy, to put it mildly. Of course, watch your version unfold accurately, and we'll all look dumb.

Good thing talent evaluation and roster composition is left to the professionals huh!

 

[miloofcroton]

Branch is our best DL. Full stop.

I like a lot of the rookie players, but your projected cuts are crazy, to put it mildly. Of course, watch your version unfold accurately, and we'll all look dumb.

I realize my style of post is not going to be the most popular...

I think the unmentioned assumptions are that we all mean the exact same thing when we post projected depth charts. I tend to post the most optimistic depth chart possible. In other words, if everyone lives up to what I think their potential is, then that is closer to how I see it going down. I would then adjust down to reality when it hits. My goal isn't even to shoot for reality initially; it's to make statements that have the most theoretical truth. That is to say, theoretically, these are the best players.

I kind of alluded to this earlier, but I leave room to be proven wrong by dependables that do their job but make less big plays than the more talented players.

In other words, at this time of year, I'm thinking talent. By September, I'm thinking "functional". It's not really my job to sign players with talent that also project well to be functional, and very importantly here, I know very little about the intangibles in almost every player on the roster because I am not around them, I don't speak to them, I haven't witnessed their prior practices, etc. Rather than project everything about the latter, it's much easier to adapt my expectations as results come to me in the real world, which is to say 'after the fact' or after I've already seen them play on Sundays in August and September.

I also don't pretend to be perfect in my talent analysis. My weakspots are going to be any player that I've never decided to take some time to scout personally. Going back to the initial post, no, I've never sat and watched *just* Alan Branch play for 30 minutes. (Part of the reason is that while I was a rabid football fan from the start of middle school through most of my adulthood, I haven't watched much football at all in the past few years, and literally these past few months I've been reintegrating myself and catching up on lost time). So I make a mistake like assume he's a slow replaceable veteran, and when called out, I'll now have to go back and review that.

It probably goes without saying, but I take the Patriot philosophy that all players are replaceable, and no 'name' is too holy for me to cut or at least disparage.

 

[long distance]

I am not suggesting that any of these players should or will be cut. Just looking at some of the numbers.

Cap Savings ---- Dead Money --- Player
$2,450,000 ---- $833,333 ---- Shea McClellin
$1,797,000 ---- --- zero -- ----- Cameron Fleming
$1,400,000 ---- $950,000 ---- Rob Ninkovich
$1,400,000 ---- $300,000 ---- Matt Slater
$1,287,500 ---- $200,000 ----- Dion Lewis
$1,125,000 ----- $673,333 ----- Jonathan Freeny
$1,115,741 ------ --- zero --- ----- Kyle Van Noy
$1,000,000 ---- $125,000 ----- LaAdrian Waddle
$903,660 ------ --- zero --- ----- Kony Ealy
$878,624 ------ --- zero --- ----- Eric Rowe
$645,000 ------ --- zero --- ----- Brandon Bolden

McClellin's dead cap is actually 1.66M ($833,333 x 2 for 2017 and 2018).

From Reiss:
Shea McClellin played 34.5 percent of the defensive snaps last season, and he should have trade value before he would become a cap casualty. The Patriots are in substitution packages about 80 percent of the time, and McClellin's versatile skill set can be tapped in specific game plans against offenses that might trend more to the pass. In a recent practice, McClellin showed his athleticism by jamming a running back before dropping back into coverage and intercepting Tom Brady. That type of play is how I envision McClellin's fit on the team: almost like a passing-game linebacker.

But since 1.66M dead money remains on Pats in any case (signing bonus) straight cut certainly is an option. Trade could be difficult . with significant money attached . unless some other team still sees him as a starter.. (esp. considering what some starting LBs got in FA like Z Brown etc.)

 

[mgteich]

As most of us are expecting double digit cap space, or something very close to it to be carried over to next season, let's start looking at some bubble players that could be the most likely candidates to be cut :

McClellin--LB--3.3m

Freeny--LB--2.2m

Surely at least one of them goes, although an argument could be made that neither of them really justify those types of cap hits. Some of the factors that may contribute are the development of guys like Langi and Bates, as well as the STOP competition. As always, injuries will be a factor.

Waddle--OT--1.1m

Any others jumping out to anyone?

 

[mgteich]

Another note

I didn't check your numbers; they are high. What you have are the cap numbers. Dead money won't be saved. Roster bonuses are paid at different times, most by now. Workout bonuses have been earned. At this point, I presume all that is saved is salary and LBTE bonuses ($1.9M and $1.0M) respectively. Since they replaced on the roster by someone else, say at $500K., the real cap savings are $1.4M and .5M. Waddle's numbers are $800K and $300K.

So, there really won't be much cap effect by cutting veterans.

 

[doesntmatter1]

My biggest hurdle seems to come from de. Ninkovich was invisible last year and Isn't getting it done as a pass rusher but he still seems to be a decent linebacker/run defender. What does Kony Ealy bring to the table and could he be a surprise cut? Does Grissom's st duties save him a spot?

I have completely written off the extra running backs like Foster and Leshun Daniels, but what if they play out of their minds?

Do we even need a third tight end? I was highly impressed with Lengel's blocking but Flemming could be used instead. The other tight ends are completely unknown and outside looking in at the moment for me.

 

[mgteich]

My biggest hurdle seems to come from de. Ninkovich was invisible last year and Isn't getting it done as a pass rusher but he still seems to be a decent linebacker/run defender. What does Kony Ealy bring to the table and could he be a surprise cut? Does Grissom's st duties save him a spot?

I have completely written off the extra running backs like Foster and Leshun Daniels, but what if they play out of their minds?

Do we even need a third tight end? I was highly impressed with Lengel's blocking but Flemming could be used instead. The other tight ends are completely unknown and outside looking in at the moment for me.

I'm not sure that I understand. Ninkovich is likely to get fewer reps because of diminished production, and you want to cut Ealy? My expectation is that we keep both plus Flowers along with the two rookies (Rivers and Wise). We have question marks with everyone but Flowers, and have two rookies, so it makes sense to keep 5.

If either Foster or Daniels beats out Lewis, then he'll make the roster. If one is great, then the possibilities are trade and Practice Squad, UNLESS he beats out Lewis.

IMHO, we could use a third TE. We sometimes carry four, but that is certainly not needed with Develin and Fleming on the 53. With only two TE's, and an injury, we wouldn't be able run 2 TE sets. This is OK for part of a game, but not as continuing restriction on our game plans. And, just BTW, Gronk failing to play 16 games isn't exactly a remote possibilities. My hope is the 3rd TE would be a strong special teamer like O'Shaugnessy.

 

[supafly]

Another note

I didn't check your numbers; they are high. What you have are the cap numbers. Dead money won't be saved. Roster bonuses are paid at different times, most by now. Workout bonuses have been earned. At this point, I presume all that is saved is salary and LBTE bonuses ($1.9M and $1.0M) respectively. Since they replaced on the roster by someone else, say at $500K., the real cap savings are $1.4M and .5M. Waddle's numbers are $800K and $300K.

So, there really won't be much cap effect by cutting veterans.

I am not suggesting that any of these players should or will be cut. Just looking at some of the numbers.

Cap Savings ---- Dead Money --- Player
$2,450,000 ---- $1,666,666 --- Shea McClellin
$1,797,000 ---- --- zero -- ----- Cameron Fleming
$1,400,000 ---- $950,000 ---- Rob Ninkovich
$1,400,000 ---- $300,000 ---- Matt Slater
$1,287,500 ---- $200,000 ----- Dion Lewis
$1,125,000 ----- $673,333 ----- Jonathan Freeny
$1,115,741 ------ --- zero --- ----- Kyle Van Noy
$1,000,000 ---- $125,000 ----- LaAdrian Waddle
$903,660 ------ --- zero --- ----- Kony Ealy
$878,624 ------ --- zero --- ----- Eric Rowe
$645,000 ------ --- zero --- ----- Brandon Bolden

There's certainly some cap savings in there, just like any other year.

 

[doesntmatter1]

I'm not sure that I understand. Ninkovich is likely to get fewer reps because of diminished production, and you want to cut Ealy? My expectation is that we keep both plus Flowers along with the two rookies (Rivers and Wise). We have question marks with everyone but Flowers, and have two rookies, so it makes sense to keep 5.

If either Foster or Daniels beats out Lewis, then he'll make the roster. If one is great, then the possibilities are trade and Practice Squad, UNLESS he beats out Lewis.

IMHO, we could use a third TE. We sometimes carry four, but that is certainly not needed with Develin and Fleming on the 53. With only two TE's, and an injury, we wouldn't be able run 2 TE sets. This is OK for part of a game, but not as continuing restriction on our game plans. And, just BTW, Gronk failing to play 16 games isn't exactly a remote possibilities. My hope is the 3rd TE would be a strong special teamer like O'Shaugnessy.

I feel that we have too many defensive ends and it is potentially constricting other positions in this early guessing game. I have a feeling Nink's diminished production will result in a flat out release instead of fewer snaps and I question if Ealy is as good as the hype(average in the panther games I have seen). I feel the only locks are Flowers and the two rookies. I think that is enough when you consider that both Hightower and McClellin can function as defensive ends.

Here is my first projection.

QB (3) T.Brady, J.Garoppolo, J.Brissett
RB (5) M.Gillislee, D.Lewis, J.White, R.Burkhead, J.Develin
WR (6) J.Edelman, C.Hogan, B.Cooks, M.Mitchell, D.Amendola, M.Slater
TE (3) R.Gronkowski, D.Allen, M.Lengel
C (1) D.Andrews
G (3) S.Mason, J.Thuney, T.Karras
T (4) N.Solder, M.Cannon, T.Garcia, C.Fleming
DE (4) T.Flowers, D.Rivers, D.Wise, K.Ealy
DT (4) M.Brown, A.Branch, V.Valentine, L.Guy
ILB(3) D.Hightower, E.Roberts, D.Harris
OLB(3) K.VanNoy, S.McClellin, J.Freeny
CB (5) M.Butler, S.Gilmore, E.Rowe, J.Jones, C.Jones
SS (4) P.Chung, N.Ebner, J.Richards, B.King
FS (2) D.McCourty, D.Harmon
ST (3) S.Gostkowski, R.Allen, J.Cardona

Amendola, Freeney, and Richards will feel the most heat to make the squad. Cyrus is lucky that he was drafted high lol.

practice squad: Grissom, Langi, Hamilton, Foster, Lucien, McDermott, Douglas, a corner, and a safety

 

[mgteich]

I feel that we have too many defensive ends and it is potentially constricting other positions in this early guessing game. I have a feeling Nink's diminished production will result in a flat out release instead of fewer snaps and I question if Ealy is as good as the hype(average in the panther games I have seen). I feel the only locks are Flowers and the two rookies. I think that is enough when you consider that both Hightower and McClellin can function as defensive ends.

Here is my first projection.

QB (3) T.Brady, J.Garoppolo, J.Brissett
RB (5) M.Gillislee, D.Lewis, J.White, R.Burkhead, J.Develin
WR (6) J.Edelman, C.Hogan, B.Cooks, M.Mitchell, D.Amendola, M.Slater
TE (3) R.Gronkowski, D.Allen, M.Lengel
C (1) D.Andrews
G (3) S.Mason, J.Thuney, T.Karras
T (4) N.Solder, M.Cannon, T.Garcia, C.Fleming
DE (4) T.Flowers, D.Rivers, D.Wise, K.Ealy
DT (4) M.Brown, A.Branch, V.Valentine, L.Guy
ILB(3) D.Hightower, E.Roberts, D.Harris
OLB(3) K.VanNoy, S.McClellin, J.Freeny
CB (5) M.Butler, S.Gilmore, E.Rowe, J.Jones, C.Jones
SS (4) P.Chung, N.Ebner, J.Richards, B.King
FS (2) D.McCourty, D.Harmon
ST (3) S.Gostkowski, R.Allen, J.Cardona

Amendola, Freeney, and Richards will feel the most heat to make the squad. Cyrus is lucky that he was drafted high lol.

practice squad: Grissom, Langi, Hamilton, Foster, Lucien, McDermott, Douglas, a corner, and a safety

OFFENSE
It is interesting how close we all are. Some might add a 9th OL. Some of us have a different choice as 3rd TE ( I have Shaughnessy because of special team ability). I suspect that 23 are common to almost everyone.

DEFENSE
Wise is a project. Ealy is an unknown. I think that we keep Ninkovich for his last season. I think that we lose one of McClellan, Freeny or King (all primarily special teamers in 2017). I suspect that 20 are common to almost everyone.

BOTTOM LINE

IMHO, going into camp, 5 positions are open. Obviously, someone can surprise (either positively or negatively).

OFFENSE (23)
3 QB
6 WR
2 TE
4 RB
1 FB
7 OL

DEFENSE (20)
8 DL
3 LB
5 CB
4 S

SPECIAL TEAMS (3)
3 SPEC

 

[Ivan]

Patriots 53-Man Roster Projection: Can Fifth Running Back Make Team?

Saw that and thought "guess it is not too early".

QB - 3 - Brady, Garopollo, Brissett - No surprises here.

WR - 5 - Cooks, Edelman Hogan, Mitchell, Amendola - Hawkins probably gives some good competition but in the end Amendola takes the last job.

TE - 2 - Gronk, Allen - Develin as emergency TEs allow you to carry just 2 on the 53.

RB/FB - 6 -White, Lewis, Gillislee, Burkhead, Foster, Develin- Foster won't make the practice squad so you carry him or lose him. I think they try to stash him later in the year but he makes this cut.

OT - 4 - Solder, Cannon, Garcia, Flemming - Waddle loses his spot this year.

IOL - 5 - Thuney, Andrews, Mason, Karras, J. King - I don't like the options at the 5th IOL spot as much as years past I think they keep 1 more guy. It's early but I'd say King sticks.

DE - 5 - Ealy, Flowers, Rivers, Nink, Wise - No surprises here.

DT - 4 - Branch, Brown Valentine, Guy - Again no surprises.

LB - 5 - Hightower, Langi, Roberts, McClellin, Van Noy - Langi i think shoots up the depth chart very quickly. I could see them cutting McClellin as i don't think he is worth the cap hit.

CB - 5 - Butler, Gilmore, Rowe, J. Jones, C. Jones- I just don't see them giving up on Cyrus this year unless he has attitude issues and when it cost you more to cut a guy than keep him this year by a fair amount you'd like to give it another shot.

S - 5 - McCourty, Chung, Harmon, Ebner, B. King - Pats decide Richards is what he is and let him walk. I don't think he is a bad player just nothing special you need to hold on to.

STs* (forgot to put it in) - 4 - Gost, Allen, Cardona, Slater

Pretty much how I see it. I have never seen a tougher roster to make.

 

[Ivan]

As most of us are expecting double digit cap space, or something very close to it to be carried over to next season, let's start looking at some bubble players that could be the most likely candidates to be cut :

McClellin--LB--3.3m

Freeny--LB--2.2m

Surely at least one of them goes, although an argument could be made that neither of them really justify those types of cap hits. Some of the factors that may contribute are the development of guys like Langi and Bates, as well as the STOP competition. As always, injuries will be a factor.

Waddle--OT--1.1m

Any others jumping out to anyone?

I'd add Ninkovich. There was a clear drop off in his play last season. Like Bruschi and Vrabel he needed to milk every ounce of athleticism he has to make it and it looked to me like he had lost that last season. Really like him but the time to retire may be upon him.

 

[long distance]

Nice chart by Miguel . can help w projections
Interesting that the total # of WR+TE was always 9 (Slater incl.)

 

[RobertWeathers]

Pretty much how I see it. I have never seen a tougher roster to make.

I'll say....

A blue chip hoops recruit in 1991 making Duke was easier.

With that said..the Patriots are Duke.