Every single year QBs shoot up. It's just a given. I said months ago trubisky was a top 20 pick. Now he might go number 1
Desperation always makes the the number of QBs drafted in the first round an interesting prediction.
Median prospects taken by position over the past six drafts:
QB = 3
OL = 7 (possibly 2-3 fewer this year)
WR = 4 (possibly 1-2 fewer this year)
RB = 1 (possibly 1-2 more this year)
TE = 0 (likely to be at least one this year)
DE = 5
DT = 4 (possibly 1-2 fewer)
LB = 3 (possibly 1-2 more)
CB = 4 (possibly 1 more)
SF = 2 (possibly 1 more)
There may be a tendency to think that, when fewer prospects than "normal" at a particular position are taken in the first, that there's a compensating increase in rounds 2 and 3. There's actually very little correlation.
There may be a
stronger correlation with the general perception of the strength/weakness of the class at a particular position in determining the number of picks per position in the 2nd and 3rd, possibly modified (up or down) by the number of teams that feel a strong need at a particular position.
For example, if there's a relatively large number of teams who are desperate to upgrade their sucky OL, they may offset the perception of a weak OL class and generate a run of 2nd/3rd round "reaches" that either don't pan out or are surprisingly successful.
Conversely, if the majority of teams are comfortable with their #1/#2 RBs, even presented with a reputedly "strong" RB class, they may wait until Day-3 to reap value, while focusing on other positions for days 1 and 2.
Of course, the accuracy of the pre-draft perception of the "strength" of a class at a particular position can't really be known until 2-3 years down the road. I don't think any analysts actually track that, though. Could be embarrassing, I suppose.
Median number (and range) of prospects taken by position in rounds 2 + 3:
QB = 2.5 (range = 2-3)
OL = 11 (
6-13)
WR = 8 (5-10)
RB = 7 (
3-8)
TE = 4 (3-6)
DE = 6 (4-10)
DT = 8 (
4-10)
LB = 8 (6-11)
CB = 10 (
3-11)
SF = 3 (3-
7)
Median totals off the board (and ranges) in the first three rounds by position:
QB = 5.5 (3-7)
OL = 17 (13-22)
WR = 12 (9-15)
RB = 8 (
4-8)
TE = 4 (3-7)
DE = 10 (8-14)
DT = 11 (6-14)
LB = 12 (
9-12)
CB = 14 (
8-15)
SF = 6 (3-10)
BTW, if a median is significantly closer to one end of its given range than the other, it probably means that the extreme
other end of the range was an outlier (bolded).
