Excellent Michael Hurley Article: Significant Aspect Of Garoppolo Trade That Nobody’s Talking About

[fgssand]

Not sure where you're getting the 75m dollar figure from, but right now the available cap space for 2018 is 53m dollars. Of course you also need to account for the fact that we only have 33 players under contract and approx. 30 free agents.

Franchising Garoppolo would be difficult unless they plan on carrying over a big chunk of this year's money. A much better question to ask would be why Garoppolo wouldn't want to start somewhere else, and what happens to Tom Brady? Surely, Belichick isn't going to pay someone 15-20m dollars a year to hold a clipboard on the sidelines--at least not for very long, anyway.

No way should we even think of replacing the goat until someone (JG) beats him out for the job.
No way should we think of trading JG if they think he is that franchise QB player, capable of leading them for 10-15 years.

Assume, for the sake of this discussion, that Brady continues to play at TB12 greatness. After two years, they guy will be 42 entering the season. Wouldn't you still want him starting for your team?

If JG is still on the team then and he is still as good as the teams thinks he is (they would not have kept him for the next two years if they do not) doesn't it make sense to continue to keep them both until the day finally comes that JG takes over.

If the Patriots think JG is a franchise guy capable of leading this team for the next 10-15 years, why not keep them both until that day comes that TB hangs 'me up.

I think they do think JG is that good and I also think the job is TB's unless and until JG beats him out or injury happens or Gisselle gives him the ultimatum to hang em up.

***One fly in this ointment, as you mentioned, what makes anyone think JG is willing to carry that clip board until the job I'd finally his.

 

[Soliel]

Yeah but Cleveland?

You couldnt pay me enough to go lose like thirteen games a year and have garbage tossed at me from a crowd of obnoxious ohio football fans. Some of them are like Randy quaid in the movie about the indians.

 

[Ring 6]

Pass rusher, coverage LB, and an RB or 2 . . . 7 picks should suffice even if we're starting in the 3rd round. Heck, Joe Mixon should be there in round three and would be a steal if we can deal with the "no more" crowd objections.

There are many roster spots that could be upgraded with a draft choice.
I doubt we draft mixon. A first would be very valuable for a LT to replace solder a corner to replace butler a WR to replace Edelman, plus DE DT LB G could all be upgraded with a stud drafted in round 1

 

[Ring 6]

No way should we even think of replacing the goat until someone (JG) beats him out for the job.
No way should we think of trading JG if they think he is that franchise QB player, capable of leading them for 10-15 years.

Assume, for the sake of this discussion, that Brady continues to play at TB12 greatness. After two years, they guy will be 42 entering the season. Wouldn't you still want him starting for your team?

If JG is still on the team then and he is still as good as the teams thinks he is (they would not have kept him for the next two years if they do not) doesn't it make sense to continue to keep them both until the day finally comes that JG takes over.

If the Patriots think JG is a franchise guy capable of leading this team for the next 10-15 years, why not keep them both until that day comes that TB hangs 'me up.

I think they do think JG is that good and I also think the job is TB's unless and until JG beats him out or injury happens or Gisselle gives him the ultimatum to hang em up.

***One fly in this ointment, as you mentioned, what makes anyone think JG is willing to carry that clip board until the job I'd finally his.

That fly in the ointment is about the size of Godzilla

 

[pdangle]

That fly in the ointment is about the size of Godzilla

Or at least, Rodan

 

[Soliel]

Denis rodman and the smog monster too.

 

[signbabybrady]

I am using what BB has oft said, that QB is the sports most important position, one that you do not want to get caught short. So, I want to cover all bases and keep them both for as many years as possible.

No one knows when TB will lost it now that he is 40 year old TB.

That said, I would never bet against TB, if he says 3 or 4 years -- he's just they guy to defy everything known to football.

So,what I am suggesting and what I think BB will do, is keep 'em both for at least two years because we can and then re-evaluate based on what is known at that time.

Our cap management and ever increasing cap numbers provide the capitol to pull it off without hurting the team.

I started typing my response and the more I think about it the smartest play here is to probably keep him for one more year just in case. Carry some money from this year to next to cover some of the cost of tagging him but you tag him with the plan to trade him. By carrying the money you can better afford to carry the cap hit then when the cassle thing went down. This means you don't have to make the trade day 1 of free agency and should be able to get just as much for him next year as now (unless he somehow hurts his stock).

 

[supafly]

I started typing my response and the more I think about it the smartest play here is to probably keep him for one more year just in case. Carry some money from this year to next to cover some of the cost of tagging him but you tag him with the plan to trade him. By carrying the money you can better afford to carry the cap hit then when the cassle thing went down. This means you don't have to make the trade day 1 of free agency and should be able to get just as much for him next year as now (unless he somehow hurts his stock).

This has been my plan as well, although these days I'm not getting laughed off the forum quite as easily with the tag/trade idea. It's basically the main reason why I think they'll carry over a good chunk of money into next year.

I just can't see any reasonable solution to keeping both, as much as I would like it.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

I started typing my response and the more I think about it the smartest play here is to probably keep him for one more year just in case. Carry some money from this year to next to cover some of the cost of tagging him but you tag him with the plan to trade him. By carrying the money you can better afford to carry the cap hit then when the cassle thing went down. This means you don't have to make the trade day 1 of free agency and should be able to get just as much for him next year as now (unless he somehow hurts his stock).

You were doing well until after the and in the last sentence. JAG traded today gives the recipient club up to one season of cheap cap contract play to decide if he's worth franchise QB contract $. This has substantive value to the trading partner. However, JAG traded in 2018 FA period has less trade value because recipient club must decide without additional objective evidence if he's worth the big contract.

 

[signbabybrady]

This has been my plan as well, although these days I'm not getting laughed off the forum quite as easily with the tag/trade idea. It's basically the main reason why I think they'll carry over a good chunk of money into next year.

I just can't see any reasonable solution to keeping both, as much as I would like it.

Yup the only way keeping them both work is if the situation sorts itself out and none of us want that. So keep him for one more cheap year just in case then tie up some money for a few months and trade him next off-season. You'll have more info next off-season so if anything changes then a new plan can be formulated.

 

[signbabybrady]

You were doing well until after the and in the last sentence. JAG traded today gives the recipient club up to one season of cheap cap contract play to decide if he's worth franchise QB contract $. This has substantive value to the trading partner. However, JAG traded in 2018 FA period has less trade value because recipient club must decide without objective evidence if he's worth the big contract.

I see your point that has obvious value to the team trading for him but I also doubt that JG is gonna be someones starter on a 1 year 900k deal. If someone trades for him they going to have to pay him something now.

 

[YOUGOTMOSSED]

There are many roster spots that could be upgraded with a draft choice.
I doubt we draft mixon. A first would be very valuable for a LT to replace solder a corner to replace butler a WR to replace Edelman, plus DE DT LB G could all be upgraded with a stud drafted in round 1

Nate Solder will be only 29 years old next season and probably have a few more quality seasons in him so I don't know if LT is a big concern right now.

If Butler signs elsewhere this offseason, we get a 1st round pick that we could use for his replacement.

Belichick has never drafted a WR in the first round.

Mixon seems like a good fit and I believe in 2nd chances. I hate the thought of pandering to the "no more" crowd over a dumb thing he did as a teenager.

 

[supafly]

Yup the only way keeping them both work is if the situation sorts itself out and none of us want that. So keep him for one more cheap year just in case then tie up some money for a few months and trade him next off-season. You'll have more info next off-season so if anything changes then a new plan can be formulated.

Also, good to remember how certain QBs have actually been injured in the postseason (Brady 2001), and even in the SB itself (Kelly loss to DAL). You never know when you're going to need that backup, and I just can't see how an additional first round pick can benefit the 2017 team more than having a solid and knowledgeable backup. That may not apply to every single year obviously, but I think it does with this year's team and the situation of Jacoby Brissett.

Of course, multiple first rounders would likely change this, but I have a difficult time seeing that unless CLE steps up with an offer that Belichick cannot refuse.

 

[maineman209]

I don't think there are many plausible scenarios where the NEP will have 80+ million in cap room.
And none of it really matters anyway when you're fielding a team of 63 players (including PS) and you only have 33 under contract, with another 30+ in free agency.

As far as Garoppolo NOT holding the clipboard, what is your proposal? That they're going to pay 40m dollars to have some kind of cheesy rotation? You're going to choose to sit Tom Brady out, instead?

I don't understand. Is there something "implausible" about my math? Or with Miguel's numbers?

The Pats had, what, 20 FAs this year? Starting with about $60M in cap space, BB managed to re-sign/replace to the point where the team has (once again) no significant holes going into the draft. And they still have nearly $27M left (roughly 45%). Even after signing Gilmore to a huge contract. Even without restructuring/extending anybody.

What other major cap expenses will they have yet this year to eat into that $27M? The 2016 cap hit for the draftees from their current pick selections will be only around $500k, according to Miguel.

How will it be so impossible for them to handle an additional 10 FA in 2018 with around $60M (after franchising JG)?

"Cheesy rotation"? What makes it "cheesy"? Brady was effectively a healthy scratch for the first four games of 2016 and it certainly didn't seem to hurt him. Might even have helped "the old man."

 

[maineman209]

Nate Solder will be only 29 years old next season and probably have a few more quality seasons in him so I don't know if LT is a big concern right now.

If Butler signs elsewhere this offseason, we get a 1st round pick that we could use for his replacement.

Belichick has never drafted a WR in the first round.

Mixon seems like a good fit and I believe in 2nd chances. I hate the thought of pandering to the "no more" crowd over a dumb thing he did as a teenager.

The "incident" aside, there are two things I don't like about Mixon ...
1) He fumbled about once every 50 touches in college (almost Ameer Abdullah level).
2) In live interviews I've listened to, he comes off as ignorant, apathetic and unprepared.

 

[Ring 6]

Nate Solder will be only 29 years old next season and probably have a few more quality seasons in him so I don't know if LT is a big concern right now.

If Butler signs elsewhere this offseason, we get a 1st round pick that we could use for his replacement.

Belichick has never drafted a WR in the first round.

Mixon seems like a good fit and I believe in 2nd chances. I hate the thought of pandering to the "no more" crowd over a dumb thing he did as a teenager.

Solders contract is up and he cannot be franchised.

Butler isn't getting an RFA contract and if we don't trade him he is fine in a year.

Just because he hasn't doesn't mean he wouldn't if he saw it as an "extra" first rounder which is the context here.

No matter what you believe about mixon you can't say you don't want a 1st or second because you want to bank on him being there in the 3rd.
Polian has said he will go in the first.

 

[FoxboroFlyer]

I can't wait till draft day.
Many have already chosen their side on this issue.
I am a firm believer JAG is going no where...Unless someone is willing to blow Bills socks off in a proposal.
I really don't see him trading off to "the best offer" come draft time, but we shall all see.

 

[fgssand]

I started typing my response and the more I think about it the smartest play here is to probably keep him for one more year just in case. Carry some money from this year to next to cover some of the cost of tagging him but you tag him with the plan to trade him. By carrying the money you can better afford to carry the cap hit then when the cassle thing went down. This means you don't have to make the trade day 1 of free agency and should be able to get just as much for him next year as now (unless he somehow hurts his stock).

So, that means you are good with both for this and next year.

At that point, we're looking at 2019 and if all goes really well.......most likely Brady's last year?

Should it play out that way, then keeping him long term only really means one more year of paying about 10-15mm (whatever Brady's salary is in addition to the "new" JG deal).

Again, will JG be willing to wait 3 more years? Once upon a time it was common for it to take five years for a QB to develop in a system. Of course that was back when I used tin foil for an antennae which I had to hold for my old man in order to watch the Red Sox games on UHF.

 

[signbabybrady]

So, that means you are good with both for this and next year.

At that point, we're looking at 2019 and if all goes really well.......most likely Brady's last year?

Should it play out that way, then keeping him long term only really means one more year of paying about 10-15mm (whatever Brady's salary is in addition to the "new" JG deal).

Again, will JG be willing to wait 3 more years? Once upon a time it was common for it to take five years for a QB to develop in a system. Of course that was back when I used tin foil for an antennae which I had to hold for my old man in order to watch the Red Sox games on UHF.

Woah you made a big leap I really only see being able to carry Jimmy for one more year not 2. But where I'm conceding is that we mine as well carry him because we will get similar value next year so long as we carry over enough cash that we won't be rushed like in the cassel trade.

That's one year.

If you try to go for 2 years it cost 20 Mil to watch him or Tom walk.

 

[FoxboroFlyer]

While folks here seem to claim father time is real...I truly wonder if they grasp it. Cause if BB believes JG is the heir, it DOESN'T matter what it costs to keep him. You pay it!
Teams don't just go out and pick a QB off the tree, or for that matter draft them.
If it was that damn easy every team would have one.