Excellent Michael Hurley Article: Significant Aspect Of Garoppolo Trade That Nobody’s Talking About

[rochrist]

Whoa whoa whoa...what'd Hurley ever do to you for you to insult him like that?

I think he's good. He provided eloquent defenses of the Patriots on SpyGate back in the day.

He didn't DO anything to me. I listened to him. And mounting a defense of Spygate doesn't make someone smarter than the average bear.

 

[SEA_Pat]

To be honest I want Clevelands 1 more next year than this year. With or without Jimmy they gonna suck this year then we can use the top 10 pick next year to actually draft the future QB and he can sit behind TB until TB retires.

Except that one must ask the question "are there REALLY that many sure things at the top of the QB draft?"

Look at last year. Carson Wentz and Jared Goff. Who here thinks these are going to be future Pro Bowl Franchise QBs? Meanwhile Dak Prescott was drafted in which round? The draft is a crapshoot, and while you can often get a GOOD QB at the top of the first, you seldom get a GREAT QB simply because there are only a few of those, one every 5 years or so. Let's look at the top 10 QB picks since 2001 when the Dynasty began.

Jared Goff (Bust)
Carson Wentz (TBD)
Blake Bortles (Bust)
Jameis Winston (TBD)
Marcus Mariotta (TBD)
Andrew Luck (Elite)
Robert Griffin III (Bust)
Ryan Tannehill (Okay)
Cam Newton (Elite)
Jake Locker (Bust)
Blaine Gabbert (Bust)
Sam Bradford (Okay)
Matt Stafford (Okay)
Mark Sanchez (Bust)
Matt Ryan (Elite)
Jamarcus Russell (Bust)
Vince Young (Bust)
Matt Leinart (Bust)
Alex Smith (Okay)
Eli Manning (Elite)
Phil Rivers (Okay)
Carson Palmer (Okay)
Byron Leftwich (Bust)
David Carr (Bust)
Joey Harrington (Bust)
Michael Vick (Bust)

Out of those 26 guys, you've had 4 (four) who have made it to the Super Bowl, and only one guy has won it. You have thirteen busts (50%!!!!!! ), six okay QBs, four guys who are elite and four who we can't really assess yet but whose potential ranges from "okay to elite" . So is a 15% shot at an elite QB worth it?

Looking at the Super Bowls won by people other than Tom Brady, how many of those guys were Elite?

Peyton Manning
Russell Wilson
Joe Flacco
Eli Manning
Ben Roethlisberger
Brad Johnson

Manning was good in his first SB (note: not during the game, but during the season leading up to the game) but I probably could have played better in the second one. Flacco had a brief period of four games where he played out of his mind but after that he's just reverted to being Jump Ball Joe, and nothing makes me happier than the Ratbirds being stuck with his mega-contract and crappy play indefinitely. The Ben is a decent QB, but even with the great receivers and RB he has can't seem to win. He may well be overrated. Brad Johnson? Russell Wilson relies too much on his legs to have the longevity to be elite and his D was the major reason they won. Out of these guys, only the Mannings were drafted in the Top Ten.

So from my point of view. you don't need to draft a QB in the Top Ten, and it seems a position particularly prone to busts. What gets you to the top often is a great D with a merely competent (or even incompetent) QB. We already have two QBs who could suffice in that respect.

BTW, this analysis made me realize just how absolutely above and beyond every other QB Brady actually is. In case anyone forgot...

 

[signbabybrady]

Except that one must ask the question "are there REALLY that many sure things at the top of the QB draft?"

Look at last year. Carson Wentz and Jared Goff. Who here thinks these are going to be future Pro Bowl Franchise QBs? Meanwhile Dak Prescott was drafted in which round? The draft is a crapshoot, and while you can often get a GOOD QB at the top of the first, you seldom get a GREAT QB simply because there are only a few of those, one every 5 years or so. Let's look at the top 10 QB picks since 2001 when the Dynasty began.

Jared Goff (Bust)
Carson Wentz (TBD)
Blake Bortles (Bust)
Jameis Winston (TBD)
Marcus Mariotta (TBD)
Andrew Luck (Elite)
Robert Griffin III (Bust)
Ryan Tannehill (Okay)
Cam Newton (Elite)
Jake Locker (Bust)
Blaine Gabbert (Bust)
Sam Bradford (Okay)
Matt Stafford (Okay)
Mark Sanchez (Bust)
Matt Ryan (Elite)
Jamarcus Russell (Bust)
Vince Young (Bust)
Matt Leinart (Bust)
Alex Smith (Okay)
Eli Manning (Elite)
Phil Rivers (Okay)
Carson Palmer (Okay)
Byron Leftwich (Bust)
David Carr (Bust)
Joey Harrington (Bust)
Michael Vick (Bust)

Out of those 26 guys, you've had 4 (four) who have made it to the Super Bowl, and only one guy has won it. You have thirteen busts (50%!!!!!! ), six okay QBs, four guys who are elite and four who we can't really assess yet but whose potential ranges from "okay to elite" . So is a 15% shot at an elite QB worth it?

Looking at the Super Bowls won by people other than Tom Brady, how many of those guys were Elite?

Peyton Manning
Russell Wilson
Joe Flacco
Eli Manning
Ben Roethlisberger
Brad Johnson

Manning was good in his first SB (note: not during the game, but during the season leading up to the game) but I probably could have played better in the second one. Flacco had a brief period of four games where he played out of his mind but after that he's just reverted to being Jump Ball Joe, and nothing makes me happier than the Ratbirds being stuck with his mega-contract and crappy play indefinitely. The Ben is a decent QB, but even with the great receivers and RB he has can't seem to win. He may well be overrated. Brad Johnson? Russell Wilson relies too much on his legs to have the longevity to be elite and his D was the major reason they won. Out of these guys, only the Mannings were drafted in the Top Ten.

So from my point of view. you don't need to draft a QB in the Top Ten, and it seems a position particularly prone to busts. What gets you to the top often is a great D with a merely competent (or even incompetent) QB. We already have two QBs who could suffice in that respect.

BTW, this analysis made me realize just how absolutely above and beyond every other QB Brady actually is. In case anyone forgot...

During the Patriots run 8 SBs were won by a QB drafted in the first rd.

Not all of those QBs were top ten but we would have something most top ten teams don't have a well run organization that given its choice of QBs should make the best choice. Then they'd still have Brady hopefully for a few years so they could take their time and coach him up which most top ten teams also don't get the luxury of. Still could bust but I'll take my chances. Can't just sit around hoping to find the next guy in the 6th rd.

Jimmy could be that guy too so I would need more than just the 1 next year but if it gave me extra picks this year by defering to next year's 1 I'd be all for it.

 

[fgssand]

During the Patriots run 8 SBs were won by a QB drafted in the first rd.

Not all of those QBs were top ten but we would have something most top ten teams don't have a well run organization that given its choice of QBs should make the best choice. Then they'd still have Brady hopefully for a few years so they could take their time and coach him up which most top ten teams also don't get the luxury of. Still could bust but I'll take my chances. Can't just sit around hoping to find the next guy in the 6th rd.

Jimmy could be that guy too so I would need more than just the 1 next year but if it gave me extra picks this year by defering to next year's 1 I'd be all for it.

I think it's pretty obvious they think Jimmy IS that guy and as such, I seriously doubt he is getting traded.

Wouldn't you agree that if he is that good, you just don't trade potential Super Bowl champion QB? Not for any price.

 

[TB_Helmet]

He didn't DO anything to me. I listened to him. And mounting a defense of Spygate doesn't make someone smarter than the average bear.

Whatever you say...I think Michael Hurley is head and shoulders above Ben Volin, who is an embarrassment to his profession.

 

[TB_Helmet]

Except that one must ask the question "are there REALLY that many sure things at the top of the QB draft?"

Look at last year. Carson Wentz and Jared Goff. Who here thinks these are going to be future Pro Bowl Franchise QBs? Meanwhile Dak Prescott was drafted in which round? The draft is a crapshoot, and while you can often get a GOOD QB at the top of the first, you seldom get a GREAT QB simply because there are only a few of those, one every 5 years or so. Let's look at the top 10 QB picks since 2001 when the Dynasty began.

Jared Goff (Bust)
Carson Wentz (TBD)
Blake Bortles (Bust)
Jameis Winston (TBD)
Marcus Mariotta (TBD)
Andrew Luck (Elite)
Robert Griffin III (Bust)
Ryan Tannehill (Okay)
Cam Newton (Elite)
Jake Locker (Bust)
Blaine Gabbert (Bust)
Sam Bradford (Okay)
Matt Stafford (Okay)
Mark Sanchez (Bust)
Matt Ryan (Elite)
Jamarcus Russell (Bust)
Vince Young (Bust)
Matt Leinart (Bust)
Alex Smith (Okay)
Eli Manning (Elite)
Phil Rivers (Okay)
Carson Palmer (Okay)
Byron Leftwich (Bust)
David Carr (Bust)
Joey Harrington (Bust)
Michael Vick (Bust)

Out of those 26 guys, you've had 4 (four) who have made it to the Super Bowl, and only one guy has won it. You have thirteen busts (50%!!!!!! ), six okay QBs, four guys who are elite and four who we can't really assess yet but whose potential ranges from "okay to elite" . So is a 15% shot at an elite QB worth it?

Looking at the Super Bowls won by people other than Tom Brady, how many of those guys were Elite?

Peyton Manning
Russell Wilson
Joe Flacco
Eli Manning
Ben Roethlisberger
Brad Johnson

Manning was good in his first SB (note: not during the game, but during the season leading up to the game) but I probably could have played better in the second one. Flacco had a brief period of four games where he played out of his mind but after that he's just reverted to being Jump Ball Joe, and nothing makes me happier than the Ratbirds being stuck with his mega-contract and crappy play indefinitely. The Ben is a decent QB, but even with the great receivers and RB he has can't seem to win. He may well be overrated. Brad Johnson? Russell Wilson relies too much on his legs to have the longevity to be elite and his D was the major reason they won. Out of these guys, only the Mannings were drafted in the Top Ten.

So from my point of view. you don't need to draft a QB in the Top Ten, and it seems a position particularly prone to busts. What gets you to the top often is a great D with a merely competent (or even incompetent) QB. We already have two QBs who could suffice in that respect.

BTW, this analysis made me realize just how absolutely above and beyond every other QB Brady actually is. In case anyone forgot...

Really enjoyed this post because of how you wrote all those guys out. I agree it needs some context by expanding to the rest of the first round; maybe a lot of those guys are busts because of the team around them, which always drafts in the top 10 by virtue of being terrible.

Also I'd like to see that breakdown for other positions. Not asking you to do it...but do you also get 15% elite rate across the board in the top 10 picks? From what I understand, offensive linemen are more "sure things", but I might guess that CB might be more prone to being busts just thinking of some of the players the Jets (hahaha they are so bad) and Browns have taken.

 

[SEA_Pat]

During the Patriots run 8 SBs were won by a QB drafted in the first rd.

Not all of those QBs were top ten but we would have something most top ten teams don't have a well run organization that given its choice of QBs should make the best choice. Then they'd still have Brady hopefully for a few years so they could take their time and coach him up which most top ten teams also don't get the luxury of. Still could bust but I'll take my chances. Can't just sit around hoping to find the next guy in the 6th rd.

Jimmy could be that guy too so I would need more than just the 1 next year but if it gave me extra picks this year by defering to next year's 1 I'd be all for it.

Well, you did say Top Ten.

Anyway, Patriots seem to be able to identify and develop QBs better than other teams, and their sweet spot appears to be a bit later than other teams as a result. I think they've been more opportunistic than proactive picking later guys whom others don't identify as top tier then developing them well. Looking at the record, they've been pretty damn good at it. Most of the guys they selected as backups managed to have reasonable careers in the NFL and they've gotten good compensation for them afterwards.

 

[SEA_Pat]

Really enjoyed this post because of how you wrote all those guys out. I agree it needs some context by expanding to the rest of the first round; maybe a lot of those guys are busts because of the team around them, which always drafts in the top 10 by virtue of being terrible.

Also I'd like to see that breakdown for other positions. Not asking you to do it...but do you also get 15% elite rate across the board in the top 10 picks? From what I understand, offensive linemen are more "sure things", but I might guess that CB might be more prone to being busts just thinking of some of the players the Jets (hahaha they are so bad) and Browns have taken.

He said Top Ten, so I used that as the starting point. I was just curious myself.

If I have a strong need to procrastinate I might look into that. But I would guess QBs are more hit or miss because so much of the success at the position is not physical, whereas most of the non-QB Top Ten picks are physical freaks of nature.

 

[Simpelton]

The Washington Redskins drafted RGIII in the first round and Kirk Cousins in the 4th round, the same round we drafted Jacoby Brissett

Guess which one became the starter and carried the franchise on his back for a few years. And which one got hurt because he was so physically talented his coaches tried to make him do everything all at once.

You like that?

I never put too much stock in overhyped first round offensive players. Sometimes they're legit, but if it's a tossup and there's no clear standout guy I always prefer to fortify my defense in the high rounds.

I'm actually encouraged somewhat that there doesn't seem to be a major hype train for That One Guy. That makes it much more likely that sanity will prevail in the draft.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

You are better than this, Hurley.

Sometimes ideas are so "out there" that it takes a real creative thinker uncover them. This is not one of them.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

In this draft, we have Five blue chip prospects (allen, garret, Thomas, Adams, fournette)

But we have at least 60 red chip prospects. Which means you can make a case that the guy picked at #55 could be picked at #6.

So if you look at it like bb, their is little value in picks in the first round. The value comes in the third round in drafting guys that slid out of the first two rounds.

 

[supafly]

I think it's pretty obvious they think Jimmy IS that guy and as such, I seriously doubt he is getting traded.

Wouldn't you agree that if he is that good, you just don't trade potential Super Bowl champion QB? Not for any price.

Fair point, but just out of curiosity, what do you think happens to Brady and Garoppolo, then? In other words, how do they manage to keep both?

 

[Pessimistic Pete]

What's the "one thing", I don't feel like rewarding click bait

 

[maineman209]

Really enjoyed this post because of how you wrote all those guys out. I agree it needs some context by expanding to the rest of the first round; maybe a lot of those guys are busts because of the team around them, which always drafts in the top 10 by virtue of being terrible.

Also I'd like to see that breakdown for other positions. Not asking you to do it...but do you also get 15% elite rate across the board in the top 10 picks? From what I understand, offensive linemen are more "sure things", but I might guess that CB might be more prone to being busts just thinking of some of the players the Jets (hahaha they are so bad) and Browns have taken.

It seems to me that the Lions' selections for top-5 WRs has inflated the "bust rate" for that position.

 

[maineman209]

Fair point, but just out of curiosity, what do you think happens to Brady and Garoppolo, then? In other words, how do they manage to keep both?

Well, projections for 2018 cap space are +/- $75M, so the Pats can probably afford it financially.

Then, it becomes a matter of figuring out how to rotate them as starters.

Sure, it's never been done before (by design) in the NFL. But then, the Pats haven't achieved 16 years of dominance by being conventional.

Can you imagine the effect on the league of the Pats suddenly introducing the concept of a "starting rotation" as in baseball? How many years would it take the other 31 teams to figure out how to gameplan for that (assuming that the other owners didn't make a rule against it)?

 

[DarrylS]

Never have professed to be a "draftnik", but taking a look at some of the mock drafts who will be available certainly seems be of quality..

If he were to get Cleveland's #12 would not be surprised if he dealt the picks for high second rounders + in the 18 & 19 drafts..

You never know what is going on in the brain of BB...

 

[Ivan]

I think it's pretty obvious they think Jimmy IS that guy and as such, I seriously doubt he is getting traded.

Wouldn't you agree that if he is that good, you just don't trade potential Super Bowl champion QB? Not for any price.

He couldn't make it through two games, how does that make him " a potential SB winning QB?"

I actually like Garrapolo but this absolute certainty people have about him when he couldn't make it through two games is bizarre. He played really well when he was on the field but the first big hit he took put him out of action, so there have to be serious concerns about his ability to make it through a full season, let alone a career.

 

[maineman209]

Never have professed to be a "draftnik", but taking a look at some of the mock drafts who will be available certainly seems be of quality..

If he were to get Cleveland's #12 would not be surprised if he dealt the picks for high second rounders + in the 18 & 19 drafts..

You never know what is going on in the brain of BB...

BB has access to enormous amounts of well-organized data and analysis that we don't.

Not that folks here aren't making a valiant and useful attempt to duplicate all that.

 

[turkeyneck]

He couldn't make it through two games, how does that make him " a potential SB winning QB?"

I actually like Garrapolo but this absolute certainty people have about him when he couldn't make it through two games is bizarre. He played really well when he was on the field but the first big hit he took put him out of action, so there have to be serious concerns about his ability to make it through a full season, let alone a career.

I kind of agree with this. Think of him as a more athletic Hoyer.

 

[patsfan13]

We will know what BB thinks of JG AFTER the draft, everything prior to that is just noise. IF a trade happens it will be right around the draft. Everyone needs to relax,