Excellent Michael Hurley Article: Significant Aspect Of Garoppolo Trade That Nobody’s Talking About

[maineman209]

So did Matt Cassell.



I bet you could say that about a lot of JAG QBs. Bring Hoyer or Fitzpatrick here and either guy could keep the Pats competitive. That doesn't say a lot about JG.

Very true... but JG is far from a sure thing either. As I said before there's reason to think it's much more likely he is a system guy than a future superstar.

I saw JG in practice, live, during training camp his rookie season. He's not a "system guy". The vast majority of what folks have seen in games from him is stuff he had when he arrived.

He may not be quite Brady v2.0, but he's the real deal. The odds of coming up with another guy in the draft who's as good as JG before Brady retires or declines are exceedingly small.

 

[maineman209]

Among the many reasons - the fact that for most teams your QB is your best player and it makes sense to leave him on the field as much as possible and get most of the reps in practice. There is no compelling reason to put your not-best-QB out there unless you have to, and to pay and keep two great QBs on the roster. You can't split reps, rosters, systems and gameplans aren't constructed that way.

In baseball, rosters, systems and gameplans are static. There's a rotation because you play every day or couple of days and you have a 162 game schedule. Not equatable to football.

And I think it can be done, though only by the Patriots, and only during this limited window and exceptional circumstances of having a GOAT and another QB who can be elite at the same time, AND being able to afford them both for at least the next couple of years. Furthermore, I think the Pats can use this as a strategic advantage.

 

[sb1]

I saw JG in practice, live, during training camp his rookie season. He's not a "system guy". The vast majority of what folks have seen in games from him is stuff he had when he arrived.

He may not be quite Brady v2.0, but he's the real deal. The odds of coming up with another guy in the draft who's as good as JG before Brady retires or declines are exceedingly small.

In those first 6 quarters he didn't put the team on his back and carry them, he didn't go out there and sling it, he didn't show he could adapt when the other team was challenging him (the MIA game was the opposite - he started to struggle when MIA got more looks at him). He was poised, methodical and stayed within the system.

That's the very textbook definition of a system QB and that's why I say right now he's a lot closer to that than a future superstar. At least judging by those 6 quarters. And if I'm saying that, you know the Browns and other teams are thinking it when they're trying to decide whether to pay a big price to get him via trade. I suspect that is why the big trade has not materialized yet.

 

[supafly]

Well, it's just short of $27M right now and they have yet to address reducing Amendola's $7M cap hit down to a reasonable number (say, $2.5M). And, again, what other major expenses might be coming? Draft picks will be about 1/2 million. NLTBE incentives that are earned may ultimately deduct 1-2 millon.

So, it's not a question of "every single penny" being carried over. The question is whether or not the ultimate carryover number will be substantially less than $27M.

-----
If there really is only the possibility that one of the two must be a full time backup for the entire season and the other the full time starter, then the Pats will need to "read the tea leaves" at the end of this season. At that point, it seems like it's down to either franchise and trade JG, or franchise and keep him around for another season of leaf-reading, whether he likes it or not (for his $20-something-million guaranteed paycheck).

The only alternatives I can see are (barring catastrophic injury to Brady or significant, obvious decline):
1) Brady has already set a career end-date that we don't know about and JG is already scheduled to take over at that time.
2) Some sort of rotation that provides JG with more starting experience (and reputation/potential trade-value enhancement), and provides Brady with enough relief/rest during the season to keep him playing at an elite level longer.

The only way #2 happens is if Brady, JG, BB, McD, and the Krafts are all on board. Since we can only speculate about what they're all thinking, it's as possible as anything else.

Good stuff. One additional thought is that the team is currently projected to only spend 500k on draft picks due to the fact that there are no 1st or 2nd round picks scheduled, but I think it's safe to assume that will change and it will go up a bit.

I agree with you that it should at least be financially possible, although barring one of those Nick Foles type (last year) deals where Garoppolo could theoretically be retained for 6-7m a year, it's just difficult to see a scenario where they are both kept. Time will tell, and I certainly hope that you're correct. It would be great to see a transitional period. Again, I'm just wondering how realistic that plan would be, that's all. Luckily, we have the best GM in the league (de facto) so in BB we trust.

 

[sb1]

And I think it can be done, though only by the Patriots, and only during this limited window and exceptional circumstances of having a GOAT and another QB who can be elite at the same time, AND being able to afford them both for at least the next couple of years. Furthermore, I think the Pats can use this as a strategic advantage.

This team with Brady at QB is much better than this team without him - we saw it last year. This offense is very different with him vs without. Going from Brady to JG and back again requires some very different offenses and game plans. I can't think of a compelling reason to sit Tom and deny him the reps that he should be getting in order to figure out an experiment and a what-if.

 

[Ivan]

Good stuff. One additional thought is that the team is currently projected to only spend 500k on draft picks due to the fact that there are no 1st or 2nd round picks scheduled, but I think it's safe to assume that will change and it will go up a bit.

I agree with you that it should at least be financially possible, although barring one of those Nick Foles type (last year) deals where Garoppolo could theoretically be retained for 6-7m a year, it's just difficult to see a scenario where they are both kept. Time will tell, and I certainly hope that you're correct. It would be great to see a transitional period. Again, I'm just wondering how realistic that plan would be, that's all. Luckily, we have the best GM in the league (de facto) so in BB we trust.

Why would Garrapolo take 7 million to back up when yeams will pay 16 plus for him to start?

 

[Ivan]

Good stuff. One additional thought is that the team is currently projected to only spend 500k on draft picks due to the fact that there are no 1st or 2nd round picks scheduled, but I think it's safe to assume that will change and it will go up a bit.

I agree with you that it should at least be financially possible, although barring one of those Nick Foles type (last year) deals where Garoppolo could theoretically be retained for 6-7m a year, it's just difficult to see a scenario where they are both kept. Time will tell, and I certainly hope that you're correct. It would be great to see a transitional period. Again, I'm just wondering how realistic that plan would be, that's all. Luckily, we have the best GM in the league (de facto) so in BB we trust.

Don't get me wrong, if Garrapolo wants to take 6-7 million a season to sit on the bench until Brady retires I'm all for it, I just don't see that ever happening.

 

[maineman209]

Good stuff. One additional thought is that the team is currently projected to only spend 500k on draft picks due to the fact that there are no 1st or 2nd round picks scheduled, but I think it's safe to assume that will change and it will go up a bit.

I agree with you that it should at least be financially possible, although barring one of those Nick Foles type (last year) deals where Garoppolo could theoretically be retained for 6-7m a year, it's just difficult to see a scenario where they are both kept. Time will tell, and I certainly hope that you're correct. It would be great to see a transitional period. Again, I'm just wondering how realistic that plan would be, that's all. Luckily, we have the best GM in the league (de facto) so in BB we trust.

A quick reference for rookie year cap hits for all draft slots is here:

2017 NFL Draft Tracker

If the Pats get the #32 back for Butler, their total 2017 draftee cap hit goes up to about $2.2M (not including UDFA, but also not deducting for late-round picks who might get cut by the end of Camp). In any case, it's not a huge number relative to current cap space.

 

[supafly]

Why would Garrapolo take 7 million to back up when yeams will pay 16 plus for him to start?

Well, he most likely wouldn't, but I've already addressed that in the post you're quoting. I'm trying to cover all of the possibilities in an attempt to hear the poster out, since there is always a chance, even if it's highly unlikely.

 

[supafly]

Don't get me wrong, if Garrapolo wants to take 6-7 million a season to sit on the bench until Brady retires I'm all for it, I just don't see that ever happening.

I certainly agree with you. I simply included the remote possibility in an attempt to suggest that would pretty much be the only way to pull it off, aside from the unthinkable--which we won't even bother mentioning.

 

[maineman209]

This team with Brady at QB is much better than this team without him - we saw it last year. This offense is very different with him vs without. Going from Brady to JG and back again requires some very different offenses and game plans. I can't think of a compelling reason to sit Tom and deny him the reps that he should be getting in order to figure out an experiment and a what-if.

Unless Brady was a willing participant.

 

[SEA_Pat]

Interesting analysis. Not sure I agree that Goff is a bust after just one season and it's premature for Gabbert too. They are also on teams that I'm not sure even Brady could help all that much. I also think it would have been more fair to bracket them as Elite, Good, OK, Bust. Guys like Rivers, Palmer, Stafford are a lot more than just "OK" quarterbacks. Sanchez was OK, he did have 4 road playoff wins. I think you missed Ben (Elite) in your list - he was almost top 10.

On the flip side of your argument, how many elite QBs other than Brady have been drafted late?

Sure, I'm not claiming to have made the definitive list of QBs and where they stand, it was more illustrative. The premise the post was based on the idea of another poster that we needed a Top 10 pick to get a Brady replacement QB.

I'd say Gabbert's a bust, and while I was being a bit negative on Goff, usually we'd have seen something from a guy drafted 1st overall whereas all reports were that he couldn't do much even on the practice field. But if you want to put them as TBD, that's fine from my point of view. That would make it 4 Elite, 6 Okay, 11 Busts and 5 TBDs out of 26 guys, a split of 15%/23%/42%/19%.

I disagree though that Rivers/Palmer/Stafford are "Good" QBs; every time they've faced the pressure of winning a big game, even when they've had the tools to do so, they've choked big time and lost it with terrible play, usually with egregious interceptions they had no business throwing. Not as in "didn't play well enough", as in "we'd have had a better chance to win if they got in a car crash on the way to the stadium". In fact, that's why they belong with Sanchez as "Okay" guys, Sanchez was an okay QB and at least could game manage enough to win a game with a great defense on occasion. When you needed more, he didn't have it. And sure, I'd have put Ben as "Elite" but he wasn't Top 10 so didn't come into consideration.

As to Elite QBs drafted outside of the First Round, here's the guys who actually managed to start at least 10 games at QB in the NFL (for consistency I'll keep my previous rating system and will make unjustified snap judgements on very young players and call late round guys who can't stick busts):

Dak Prescott (Elite)
Trevor Siemien (Okay)
Zach Mettenberger (Bust)
Gee?-no! Smith (Bust)
Mike Glennon (Okay)
Brock Osweiler (Bust)
Russell Wilson (Elite)
Nick Foles (Okay)
Kirk Cousins (Okay)
Andy Dalton (Okay)
Colin Kaepernick (Okay)
Tyrod Taylor (Okay)
Jimmy Clausen (Bust)
Colt McCoy (Bust)
John Skelton (Bust)
Chad Henne (Bust)
Kevin Kolb (Bust)
Drew Stanton (Bust)
Trent Edwards (Bust)
Tyler Thigpen (Bust)
Kellen Clemens (Bust)
Tarvaris Jackson (Bust)
Bruce Gradkowski (Bust)
Charlie Frye (Bust)
Kyle Orton (Okay)
Dan Orlovsky (Bust)
Derek Anderson (Bust)
Matt Cassell (Okay)
Ryan Fitzpatrick (Okay)
Matt Schaub (Okay)
Luke McCown (Bust)
Chris Simms (Bust)
Seneca Wallace (Bust)
Josh McCown (Okay)
David Garrard (Bust)
Drew Brees (Elite)
Chris Weinke (Bust)
Sage Rosenfels (Bust)
AJ Feeley (Bust)

Counting that up, we get 3 Elite Guys (Prescott, Wilson, Brees), 12 Okay guys and 24 Busts out of 39 guys, a split of 8%/31%/62%. There's around 1.5 of these late round guys who played at least 10 games to every guy drafted in the Top Ten.

So you CAN get almost as many Elite guys outside of the first round as you can Top 10. On the other hand, as pointed out by several people, you can get probably a similar breakout from the first round as a whole, rather than just considering the Top Ten hence you'll end up with significantly more Elite guys if you consider the First Round rather than Top 10. So obviously there's a much higher likelihood of finding an Elite guy in the first round, but not so obviously there's not so much of an incremental benefit in getting to the top of the 1st round because QB is more of a crapshoot than other positions.

Now my non-First Round list doesn't include the majority of drafted QBs, the vast majority of whom never even made a roster, so never played 10 games and were obviously "busts". On the other hand, if you take draft value in points and look at pick expenditures, I'm guessing there's not a major difference in investment in 5-7x as many later round QBs as there is in a single high First Round draft pick. That would be probably the most interesting analysis, draft pick point values versus QB starters/backups/elite/busts and where the value sweet spot is. Just looking at the Patriots, one would guess "Second Round" is where that metric hits max efficiency.

 

[supafly]

In my best Diddy voice (or whatever the hell he calls himself these days) directed at the rest of the NFL: "Take that, take that, take that."

I'd also add a Ric Flair "whooo!"

Happy news

Robert Kraft: Tom Brady plans to play six or seven more years

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

While folks here are deep in their BB will spend all this year's cap and next year's on JAG ludicrousness, they might note that TFB just told Bobby Kraft he intends to play another 6-7 years.