My position on this topic has evlolved a great deal over the last week. I am now firmly in the camp of having Butler come back for this season and allow him to go to UFA next year. In a strict football sense I think it would be the best use of our assets for this season for the following reasons.
1. The biggest question mark for next season will be our DE's and edge rushers. Until proven otherwise, we have regressed when we lost Sheard and Long. Ealy may have all the measurables, but hasn't shown it with any consistency on the field. He may be another great pick up who benefits from the coaching, system and environment, BUT that can't be counted on until it happens.
2. So given that, plus the lack of draft picks (without a JG trade) we really need the back end not just to be good, but to be great. A Butler and Gilmore combo has the chance to be great.... in fact better than the Revis/Browner combo in 2014.
3. I'm confident that between Jones, Jones, and Coleman, we will have good depth and a decent 3rd CB when we need it. However if Butler leaves, that would thrust CJones into his role. Based on his physical skills we have no reason to believe he wouldn't fill it at least to a Logan Ryan (2015 version) level. We'd be OK, but not as deep or experienced. It also would be an obvious question mark going into the season.
By keeping Butler we would have the luxury of giving our very young CB's the time to develop one more year and either remove any questions about their being able to replace Butler, or if they can't, a chance to react to the need.. Historically the best current CB's in the league didn't have great rookie years. Patrick Peterson for example was considered a bust after his first year. Richard Sherman and the entire Seattle secondary took time to gel. So even if we draft a CB with the potential to be a starter, it's not going to happen THIS season.
So not only would the team be better WITH Butler next season, it would also be better prepared to go on without him IF he leaves in 2018.
4. I think Butler is easily a top 10 CB in the league, and if you put him in the top 6 I wouldn't bother to argue. But even though he played at that level last season, I have to recognize his limitations in covering big receivers.
Butler is a CLASSIC over acheiver, much like Brady. But unlike Brady he plays a position where athletic excellence is paramount to success, even moreso when you have the physical limitations Butler has to deal with. We saw last season what happened to Revis as his skills eroded (for whatever reasons). There was a marked decline in his play....and he was the best of his era.
The way Butler plays the game so damned hard, the same thing that makes us love him is going to be the thing that, I feel, will shorten his career. He's already 27, so his prime is only going to be 2-3 more years IF he remains healthy. So I'd be happy to get one of those prime years at a reasonable price, and could understand why the Pats might be loathe to pay top dollar in a LT contract for years that he might be in a decline back to being just a decent slot CB kind of guy.
I think that looming drop off is keeping the Pats from going the distance with him. It's not what they think is coming in the next couple of seasons, but beyond that. It wouldn't take much of a decline to lower his value, since his game is so reliant on his physicalness and fury. In other words, what kind of player is he going to be when he gets paid and that chip drops off his shoulder.
5. Another reason to keep him, is the fact that it is very unlikely that any plaer we get at #32 is going to have much of an impact on THIS particular season, even though be would probably be very important going forward. For that reason we really need to move JG for a package pluse the #12, because in THAT range we could find an immediate impact kind fo player..
