Adam Schefter: Patriots want minimum of 1st and 4th round picks for QB Jimmy Garoppolo

[Sciz]

I really wish we know more about the job security of the Cleveland front office. Their first year was expected to be bad, but it was horrific. Can they have a bad 2017 and still keep their jobs for 2018? If there's pressure from ownership to be competitive in 2017 or get fired, then that could be the desperation that the Pats need to get top end value for Garoppolo.

 

[Ring 6]

Yeah, I don't see Houston making a play for Jimmy G., but what do teams like Cleveland & Jacksonville have to lose? Even the Jets should consider him, but BB would never sell to them.

I think Jimmy G is much less of a certainty than people around here want to believe.
My opinion considers:
1) I devalue a players sitting on the bench and barely playing for 3 years
2) I don't consider the little bit he played as proof of his future, and frankly if you discount the first half vs Miami, most people here were extremely concerned about him being able to win while Brady was out. I don't think a half answers everything.
3) I think its a proven fact that NFL teams prefer to draft a rookie and develop him in their system rather than trade for a guy who was brought up in someone elses. (I also see no evidence that would lead other teams to put higher value on being Bradys backup, which some people here feel will happen)
4) Jacksonville has a QB they drafted 1 overall, and have been building their team around, who had a bad season, after being considered the reason for optimism. They jettisioned a pathetic coach, the next one will have the chance to work with their franchise QB, not have him cut so they can use another #1 on an unproven guy. Cleveland is more than a QB away, and there are many options to them that aren't Jimmy G.

 

[Bradyking12]

If we trade JG for a 1st round pick it should be for '18 or '19 and be used for a QB

 

[TinhWoodhead]

does collins get a ring if pats win sb

 

[BobDigital]

The flip side of this is that Ostweiler looked good for the games he started in DEN (some better than others) and learned from Forehead for two seasons. As costly as Ostweiler's contract is, it didn't consume draft picks so it's 'only' money, and Jimmy will be needing a new contract too so there will be both high draft picks and big money involved.

The money is small and risk free. They get him for pennies this year and can franchise him next year for no risk. The risk on money is super low unlike Os. You need to risk something. If they Pay JAG and give him a long term deal they will have 2 years if they want it to be sure it is the right move.

Tell me the top market QB you can sign without risk. If you can do it by all means pick him up.

 

[Jackson 2]

does collins get a ring if pats win sb

Based upon past practice, I believe so.

 

[Ring 6]

Cleveland just drafted Cody Kessler in the 3rd round.
When he played, despite a terrible team around him, he looked good.
Look at some of his numbers:

He had 4 games (out of 8) where he threw at least 27 passes.

In those 4 games he was
94/141 66.7% 1006 yard 7.13 ypa 4 TD 1 Int

His other games where he was hurt, or they sucked so bad he didn't throw much were:

34/54/374/2/1
Not bad with 63% 6.9ypa

These numbers are as a rookie, on the worse team in the league in a decade.
Why wouldn't you use your picks to try to put a team around him?

 

[Ring 6]

Teams risk first round picks for complete unknowns at QB all the time. You need to take risk if you want to find the guy. The sample size is all we have to go on. Trying to compare them any other way is completely meaningless.

Wait. You think that Bill Obrien is going to look at those 1 1/2 game statistics and consider anything else meaningless?
Are you kidding?
He has evaluated both players predraft. He has worked with Savage for 3 years, he has film on Jimmy G.
These things are meaningless? He should trade because Jimmy G had a good half vs Miami?

Teams can either trade for him and have him for sure or wait for FA (assuming no one else trades for him). Also if he hits FA he will get offers more than 4/72 cause teams have no choice but to pay it. The demand is that bad and supply of good players too low.

Or they can find someone else. Jimmy G is not the only QB, not a certainty and surely not assured of being the next Brady.

JAG looked better in his short time than Osweiler ever did and they gave Os 4/72.

No he didn't. He had a decent game and a great half.
And you don't pick a QB of the future based on a few games, you do it based on your analysis of his ability.

They had nothing to base it on that he would be worth it but they gave it to him anyway cause risk are needed. They hoped he would build on what he did in Denver. He didn't. If anything he regressed.

So why make the same mistake again?
They have Savage who has had an almost identical path.

Sorry to say but QB is the one spot you need to invest a lot of either capital or money in without much to go on or nothing as far as a long proven track record of NFL results cause hoping for a FA like Brees and Manning to pop up is super rare. You need to take risk cause generally a team will never let a good proven QB walk or trade one.

Why do you need to do it with a guy who sat on someone elses bench for 3 years? There are other options.

 

[Bill Lee]

The money is small and risk free. They get him for pennies this year and can franchise him next year for no risk. The risk on money is super low unlike Os. You need to risk something. If they Pay JAG and give him a long term deal they will have 2 years if they want it to be sure it is the right move.

A franchise deal is not small money (average of the top 5 QB contracts) and is guaranteed the second the player signs it. I agree the best thing to do is to get JG to sign a long term contract with two years fully guaranteed, but that deal ends up looking like the Ost deal and thus comes with similar risks, on top of the loss of the draft picks.

Tell me the top market QB you can sign without risk. If you can do it by all means pick him up.

I think most GMs will convince themselves and ownership that they are better off drafting their own QBs than spending the picks and the money needed to get JG. I don't think JG has proven that he's a 'top market' QB any more than Ostweiler did a year ago.

If you were a GM, would you (a) give away 1st and 4th and a significant long term contract to get JG, or (b) use the 1st and 4th yourself and offer a franchise level contract to Kirk Cousins? To me it's a toss-up. We've seen what Cousins is (streaky, with high highs and low lows), and the 1st and 4th have a lot of potential. We've seen a much smaller sample size for JG after being in a very mature system for two full seasons and three training camps. It's not clear to me how good he'll be in a new system with a lot of pressure due to the big contract. You can take the plunge and presume he'll be very good, but that's pretty close to what HOU did with Ostweiler.

 

[TheFlyingWedge]

All it takes is one crazy GM to make the deal but a 1st for Jimmy seems like way too much for a QB with limited playing time (and tape) in the pros. To put into perspective, Matt Cassell netted a 2nd rounder after leading the Pats to a respectable record and played almost the whole season. Back to back 400 yard passing games, etc. The pats also threw in Mike Vrabel with the trade.

 

[pats_premi]

Sam Bradford was reaching a "bust" status until Viking desperately wanted a QB to take them to playoff after Bridgewater's injury. Hopefully there will be a desperate team willing to part away with a lot of picks to acquire JG.

 

[Wheelman]

Where does it say the Patriots are asking for this in the tweet?

 

[BobDigital]

Wait. You think that Bill Obrien is going to look at those 1 1/2 game statistics and consider anything else meaningless?
Are you kidding?
He has evaluated both players predraft. He has worked with Savage for 3 years, he has film on Jimmy G.
These things are meaningless? He should trade because Jimmy G had a good half vs Miami?


Or they can find someone else. Jimmy G is not the only QB, not a certainty and surely not assured of being the next Brady.


No he didn't. He had a decent game and a great half.
And you don't pick a QB of the future based on a few games, you do it based on your analysis of his ability.


So why make the same mistake again?
They have Savage who has had an almost identical path.



Why do you need to do it with a guy who sat on someone elses bench for 3 years? There are other options.

I didn't say stats I said on field sample size. I never said you judge a guy with a stat sheet. Look at the field and how they play. In their limited field time JAG > Savage and it is not close. When i said "meaningless" it was admittedly hyperbole but the ability to actually show you can do it in a game trumps everything else. In the end it is about how well you play on game day. Should he trade for JAG? I think he should strongly consider it as should any team not happy with their QB play.

I never claim JAG was the next Brady or certain. No QB is certain. This is guess work. Do you homework and take the best guess. No JAG is not the only QB. There are many QBs and most suck. If there were 32 good QB options we would not need to have this discussion.

Also he did look better than Os ever did in the time. Os never had 6 quality quarters of play to that level imo. Will JAG keep it up? No idea. The odds say more likely than not he will fail to be a franchise QB or even decent game manager ala Alex Smith. Yes you analyze the QB and the games are the most important thing to analyze.

We don't know if it is a mistake or not. Savage has not showed half of what JAG has on the field. That is why you make the move if you make it. To say Savage = JAG is just not true to this point. Looking at their play it is not close in the limited sample we have.

I never said they have to do anything. Maybe Savage suddenly gets it next year and really steps up. Maybe JAG is traded and doesn't pan out. I don't know and don't claim to. I would say though the fact they had Savage and traded for Os means they were not confident in his ability to start and do well this year. Obviously they didn't believe in him to start the year. Maybe they do now but i would doubt they would invest so much money in Os if they felt they had a franchise guy in the making with savage.

 

[scott99]

Schefter is talking out of his ass. He has no clue of the Pat's offseason plans with JG. This is click bait.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

Browns have 2 picks in first round

1st pick
10th pick

Would be huge if we got the 10th pick.

Going to be a busy offseason

There is no way the browns are trading 1st overall. They have been drooling over myles garrett. If anything, the pats would get the eagles first rounder.

 

[PatriotsPimp136]

I think Jimmy G is much less of a certainty than people around here want to believe.
My opinion considers:
1) I devalue a players sitting on the bench and barely playing for 3 years
2) I don't consider the little bit he played as proof of his future, and frankly if you discount the first half vs Miami, most people here were extremely concerned about him being able to win while Brady was out. I don't think a half answers everything.
3) I think its a proven fact that NFL teams prefer to draft a rookie and develop him in their system rather than trade for a guy who was brought up in someone elses. (I also see no evidence that would lead other teams to put higher value on being Bradys backup, which some people here feel will happen)
4) Jacksonville has a QB they drafted 1 overall, and have been building their team around, who had a bad season, after being considered the reason for optimism. They jettisioned a pathetic coach, the next one will have the chance to work with their franchise QB, not have him cut so they can use another #1 on an unproven guy. Cleveland is more than a QB away, and there are many options to them that aren't Jimmy G.

Nobody in this QB draft's better than jimmy g. My opinion.

 

[BobDigital]

A franchise deal is not small money (average of the top 5 QB contracts) and is guaranteed the second the player signs it. I agree the best thing to do is to get JG to sign a long term contract with two years fully guaranteed, but that deal ends up looking like the Ost deal and thus comes with similar risks, on top of the loss of the draft picks.

I think most GMs will convince themselves and ownership that they are better off drafting their own QBs than spending the picks and the money needed to get JG. I don't think JG has proven that he's a 'top market' QB any more than Ostweiler did a year ago.

If you were a GM, would you (a) give away 1st and 4th and a significant long term contract to get JG, or (b) use the 1st and 4th yourself and offer a franchise level contract to Kirk Cousins? To me it's a toss-up. We've seen what Cousins is (streaky, with high highs and low lows), and the 1st and 4th have a lot of potential. We've seen a much smaller sample size for JG after being in a very mature system for two full seasons and three training camps. It's not clear to me how good he'll be in a new system with a lot of pressure due to the big contract. You can take the plunge and presume he'll be very good, but that's pretty close to what HOU did with Ostweiler.

I never said a franchise tag is small money i said small risk cause it is 1 year and done. You can immediately move on. That is why i said it is low risk where as if you signed him as a true FA you would need to have guaranteed money over 4-5 years and more than the 20M or so. Also you don't need to franchise him at all after one year if you don't like him. So yes you use a draft pick but you invest no money into it and if you want a 2nd years look you can it without risk of it effecting the next year.

I don't think the redskins let Cousins walk. If they do i'd sign him.

My point was you need to risk something either draft value or cash with long term guarantees and you need to risk it on best guesses that as not sure things. The choice is up to the GM.

 

[Wax Frog]

Also the deflategate picks. Interesting how those things line up

Nice little FU to the 32 lol!

 

[luuked]

Honestly, I think Belichick keeps both for 2017, and trades Brady to the Niners after the 2017 season.

I hope someone will stop soon with that trading Brady story because it will not happen.


There are only two remotely possible places to put Brady, which are the Texans (with BoB in place) or where ever McD ends up. This might keep the terminology/system the same but there are still so many issues related to that.

The team would need to find players that support the strengths of Brady, those players would need to learn the system/get rapport with Brady... ect.

Does anyone really think that at the stage of Brady's career it makes any sense for anyone but a perfectly built team (which outside of NE doesn't exist) to trade for him ? Just look at the entire situation through the eyes of someone as ultra competitive as Brady and you will see it doesnt make any sense.

 

[Rusty Coupe]

Chicago? Goes back to his home state, and leaves the conference.

Schefter is an NFL mouthpiece, that may be where this is coming from, not the Patriots.

In a league that is suddenly much more concerned about ratings, boosting the large Chicago market with the home town kid would be good business.