Reiss' assessment of Pats' FA signings as roster locks

[RobertWeathers]

He has Chris Hogan listed as a possible top 3 target. Did I miss something?

OT: I don't mind clicking on a Mike Reiss link. I rationalize it as sending a care package (click) to a POW.


Edit: I meant Chris Hogan.

Why is it not possible for Hogan to finish #3 in targets?

 

[TheFlyingWedge]

Harbor received a good signing bonus to come here with a 2 year contract. He is closer to being a lock than a middle grounder.

 

[rookBoston]

I don't see Chris Long as a lock...very likely but not certain.

He needs to beat Flowers and Grissom for the #3 spot on the roster. Either or both of the kids may be ready for that challenge. Indeed, their development and upside might have played a factor in BB's willingness to trade Jones in the first place.

What Long has going against him is that Flowers and Grissom can each earn their spot on the 53-man purely on the merit of ST play. This means, they don't have to beat Long's performance at DE outright, they just have to narrow the gap enough to make scavenging that roster spot for another part the team an appealing idea... like choosing to carry all our rare depth at TE and turn it into a unique weapon.

In case of a tie, you have to believe BB will keep the younger player on the rise and on his rookie contract, than a veteran on a 1 year deal. The pressure is on Long to show up during training camp and stake his claim.

 

[Schmo]

He has Chris Hogan listed as a possible top 3 target. Did I miss something?

OT: I don't mind clicking on a Mike Reiss link. I rationalize it as sending a care package (click) to a POW.


Edit: I meant Chris Hogan.

Reiss says, "he projects as a top-three option in the receiving corps." Guessing receiving corps means WRs.

Edelman, Amendola, Hogan. Seems reasonable to me.

Cooper should be middle ground. From everything I've seen/read, his floor could drop out from under him at any moment.

Biggers and Washington don't make the team.

 

[borisman]

Exactly, he's a 100% lock.

I say he's a lock also, but watch out for Flowers stealing plenty of snaps this year.

 

[ChessToCheckers]

The more I see of Chris Hogan highlights, the more I like him. A wide body receiver with decent speed that fights for the ball. Looks like an "over-achiever/underdog". Love those types of guys. Sure hope Tom likes him.

 

[Tony2046]

Why is it not possible for Hogan to finish #3 in targets?

Well.... I could be wrong but my thoughts were:

1. Jules
2. Gronk
3. Amendola
4. Bennett or Martin
5. Dobson (just kidding but would love to see it)
6. Hogan

I'm no sure of what we are going to get from Hogan. Did you think he's a #3?

 

[Tony2046]

Reiss says, "he projects as a top-three option in the receiving corps." Guessing receiving corps means WRs.

Edelman, Amendola, Hogan. Seems reasonable to me.

Cooper should be middle ground. From everything I've seen/read, his floor could drop out from under him at any moment.

Biggers and Washington don't make the team.

Ok. I was including TE's.

 

[Sciz]

Well.... I could be wrong but my thoughts were:

1. Jules
2. Gronk
3. Amendola
4. Bennett or Martin
5. Dobson (just kidding but would love to see it)
6. Hogan

I'm no sure of what we are going to get from Hogan. Did you think he's a #3?

It's also not absurd to think that Hogan could be the #2 WR and #3 overall receiving option. If Hogan and Amendola are similar in quality, then Hogan's physical skill set would appear to make him the much better fit as an outside receiver.

 

[cstjohn17]

Exactly, he's a 100% lock.

What if Jake Bequette take his place?

 

[RobertWeathers]

Well.... I could be wrong but my thoughts were:

1. Jules
2. Gronk
3. Amendola
4. Bennett or Martin
5. Dobson (just kidding but would love to see it)
6. Hogan

I'm no sure of what we are going to get from Hogan. Did you think he's a #3?

Yep. I think Hogan is going to see 900-1000 snaps and be 2014 LaFell.

Hes being paid too high to be the 5th option.

I do not think it's a lock DA is with this team at the start of camp.

 

[BTTA]

I don't see Chris Long as a lock...very likely but not certain.

He needs to beat Flowers and Grissom for the #3 spot on the roster. Either or both of the kids may be ready for that challenge. Indeed, their development and upside might have played a factor in BB's willingness to trade Jones in the first place.

What Long has going against him is that Flowers and Grissom can each earn their spot on the 53-man purely on the merit of ST play. This means, they don't have to beat Long's performance at DE outright, they just have to narrow the gap enough to make scavenging that roster spot for another part the team an appealing idea... like choosing to carry all our rare depth at TE and turn it into a unique weapon.

In case of a tie, you have to believe BB will keep the younger player on the rise and on his rookie contract, than a veteran on a 1 year deal. The pressure is on Long to show up during training camp and stake his claim.

This is the kind of complexity that unfolds every year, plus the one or two UDFA's that make the team, that makes the entire "lock" category a bit silly to me. Bennett is the closest thing to a lock, but the rest of the list should be labeled as "more probable than not."





Yes, I said it.

 

[mgteich]

Well.... I could be wrong but my thoughts were:

1. Jules
2. Gronk
3. Amendola
4. Bennett or Martin
5. Dobson (just kidding but would love to see it)
6. Hogan

I'm no sure of what we are going to get from Hogan. Did you think he's a #3?

Hogan is expected to be much better than Martin, who you have as tied for 3.

 

[Deus Irae]

WR Chris Hogan -- Signed to a three-year, $12 million deal with $7.5 million guaranteed, he projects as a top-three option in the receiving corps.

Outside of injury, this team is likely to have

Edelman
Gronk
Bennett

as the top 3 targets, and in that order.

 

[BobDigital]

Outside of injury, this team is likely to have

Edelman
Gronk
Bennett

as the top 3 targets, and in that order.

Well did he mean top 3 WR or top 3 options overall?

Top 3 pass catching options are If 100% healthy Gronk Edelman Lewis (Bennett very close and maybe 3rd)

If WRs then Edelman Hogan (probably) Amendola Martin Washington? He is in the top 3 there.

 

[Deus Irae]

Well did he mean top 3 WR or top 3 options overall?

Top 3 pass catching options are If 100% healthy Gronk Edelman Lewis (Bennett very close and maybe 3rd)

If WRs then Edelman Hogan (probably) Amendola Martin Washington? He is in the top 3 there.

Based upon current usage, I look at it (especially in NE) as

Wide receiver corps = WRs
Receiver corps = WRs + TEs
The 3DRB is still an RB, even if the number of carries is very low. James White is a terrible runner right now but, even so, more than 1/3 of his touches (and just under 1/3 of intended touches) were runs.

 

[SammyBlueCat]

What if Jake Bequette take his place?

Jake Bequette could flap his wings and fly too...

 

[BobDigital]

Jake Bequette could flap his wings and fly too...

Jake Bequette saw the pro game of football first hand and thought "too easy" so he left. I would never fault him for that.

 

[Tony2046]

Hogan is expected to be much better than Martin, who you have as tied for 3.

That would nice. I thought Martin played reliably, had good hands and Brady seemed to trust him. Not bad for his first year with the Pats. We might see some improvement in his second year.

I know you cannot linearly compare stats from two different offensive systems and that stats do not tell the whole story but below are reception/drop stats. (Example: Edelman has the highest drop % of the group but we know his value to the team.)



Anyways my thoughts still are:

1. Jules - Recovered from his foot injury, Brady's security blanket and when the offense has all it's weapons it is tough to cover him.
2. Gronkowski - He really is the GOAT of TE's and rose to another UnGodly level in the AFCCG.
3. Amendola - When Jules isn't open Dola is. Has fantastic hands and will kill himself to get to the ball. (Would hate to lose that)
4. Bennett - Big bodied TE with speed. Has emotional issues but may keep them in check if the team is winning and/or Brady is feeding him. Plus it's another chance to get back to the true two TE set. (Deus may be right in that Bennett should be at 3)

I had Martin at 4th but did not consider that if Jules and AD are on the field his snaps would be limited. Nevertheless a reliable receiver and still could offer the occasional deep threat with Jules, DA and Gronk on the field provided the O line gives Brady time.

@robertweathers has a good point that Hogan will be expected to fill a 2014 Lafell type role so he would see more targets than Martin in that case. Although if Bennett lives up to the billing and Amendola is on the team Hogan may fill the Lafell role but still see less targets because of an effective two TE set.

We'll see.

I do stand corrected even after all those scrambled thoughts. Hogan could be the #3 or 4.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

Hogan has off-the field issues.