Projection of 2018 Roster

[supafly]

Howe: Indepth look at Patriots’ roster, decisions to be made

"Dion Lewis (unrestricted free agent): Lewis will want something comparable to a three-year, $18 million deal with $10 million guaranteed to avoid free agency. Don’t expect a hometown discount."

Boy, that has the potential to be a difficult call for a guy like Belichick, who would normally turn down such demands. In my opinion, If we can get to the lower end of that 3/15 projection, it could be done.

 

[supafly]

Might be closer to 50-50 than many people seem to think.

Gotta think he’d be asked to restructure. If so, it would be nice to keep him. If not, it’s a tough sell at that kind of cap hit—in my opinion. Of course, only Belichick knows whether or not we could get by without him and his blocking.

 

[ATippett56]

Boy, that has the potential to be a difficult call for a guy like Belichick, who would normally turn down such demands. In my opinion, If we can get to the lower end of that 3/15 projection, it could be done.

Too rich for my blood especially when the main priority for the New England Patriots offense is to re-sign offensive tackle Nate Solder.

Potential Salary Cap Casualties
Bennett, Martellus
Allen, Dwayne
Britt, Kenny
Salary Cap Savings = $12,640,625

Hypothetical 2018 Salary Cap Expenditures
Nate Solder - $11,070,000
Matthew Slater - $1,700,000
Danny Amendola - $1,600,000
Brandon Bolden - $630,000 (veteran minimum salary benefit)
Total Salary Cap Expenditure = $15,000,000

Nate Solder Contract Details, Salary Cap Charges, Bonus Money | Over The Cap

Matt Slater Contract Details, Salary Cap Charges, Bonus Money | Over The Cap

Danny Amendola Contract Details, Salary Cap Charges, Bonus Money | Over The Cap

Brandon Bolden Contract Details, Salary Cap Charges, Bonus Money | Over The Cap

Matthew Slater
2017 NFL Season
Base Salary - $900,000
Signing Bonus - $300,000
Roster Bonus - $300,000
Other (Pro Bowl Selection) - $200,000
Total Cash Expenditure - $1,700,000

Danny Amendola
2017 NFL Season
Base Salary - $1,250,000
Roster Bonus - $300,000
Workout Bonus - $50,000
Total Cash Expenditure = $1,600,000

 

[ATippett56]

Boy, that has the potential to be a difficult call for a guy like Belichick, who would normally turn down such demands. In my opinion, If we can get to the lower end of that 3/15 projection, it could be done.

It may be more difficult now.

Rob Gronkowski

2017 Incentives (all NLTBE)
70% snaps OR 60 rec/800 yards OR 10 TD: $1M
80% snaps OR 70 rec OR 1,000 yards OR 12 TD: $3M
90% snaps OR 80 rec/ 1,200 yards, 14 TD OR All Pro selection: $5.5M

2017 AP All-Pro Team

2017 AP All-Pro Team
Offense
Quarterback - Tom Brady, New England
Tight End - Rob Gronkowski, New England

 

[maineman209]

Gotta think he’d be asked to restructure. If so, it would be nice to keep him. If not, it’s a tough sell at that kind of cap hit—in my opinion. Of course, only Belichick knows whether or not we could get by without him and his blocking.

Blocking TEs, at almost any price, have typically been a "tough sell" to most fans. Hooman was a perennial "tough sell". Most fans seem to think that guys who can master the Pats blocking schemes and line calls are as easy to acquire as picking up a six-pack of cheap swill at the local convenience mart and should cost about the same. They either aren't aware or don't remember how many blocking TEs the Pats have gone through during the off-season over the years trying to find one who "gets it" and can stick.

Also, if that "#3/blocking TE" is paid much more than the NFL minimum, then he damn well better immediately be capable of catching a couple passes per game and producing a few TDs - or he's grossly overpaid.

Most fans don't seem to understand that it's guys like Hooman and Allen (and an OL filled with very good run-blockers) that allow the Pats to generate a ground game that's sufficient to support the passing game using only (cheaper and easier to acquire) 2nd-tier/3rd-tier RBs, and RBs who are more receiver than runner.

A couple three months ago, BB was asked about Allen in a presser. BB went a bit beyond his typical "works hard; does everything we ask" boilerplate, noting how much more difficult it is for new TEs in the Pats offense because they need to learn everything about the blocking schemes that an OL does, PLUS everything that the receivers do about the passing schemes, and then praising Allen for how "great" he's been and how quickly he's picked things up.

Allen's current contract is:
- 2018 (turns 28): $4.5M salary ... $500k weekly roster bonuses
- 2019 (turns 29): $6.9M salary ... $500k weekly roster bonuses
- Zero guaranteed.

My guess is that the Pats would restructure via an extension, probably 2 years, through age 31. The net result might be 4 years for $14M-$15M, with $5M guaranteed ($4M signing bonus + $1M 2018 salary). Something like:

- 2018: $1.0M salary ... $1M bonus ... $500k weekly ($2.5M cap)
- 2019: $2.0M salary ... $1M bonus ... $500k weekly ($3.5M cap)
- 2020: $2.5M salary ... $1M bonus ... $500k weekly ($4.0M cap)
- 2021: $3.0M salary ... $1M bonus ... $500k weekly ($4.5M cap)

There would probably be some incentive bonuses based on Allen achieving certain receiving benchmarks that could add another $500k to $1M per season. There might also be 3rd-year and 4th-year team-option roster bonuses of $1M-$2M.

 

[GorBelSer]

There’s little reason to move on from Amendola, who is an excellent WR4-5 option with clutch experience, Edelman (coming off major injury) insurance, and a very reasonable expectation for another 1 yr contract.

He obviously wants to stay here, has openly talked about how much he enjoys it and why he’s agreed to take pay cuts, and continues to play at a high level. I think Belichick would consider making an exception by keeping 6 real receivers if guys like Dorsett and Mitchell are both the locks some of you guys assume them to be.

They are supposed to be the locks, given all the circumstances (particularly the age issue) but a lot depends on Mitchell being healthy. If he is not, we will keep Edelman and Amendola for at least another year.

 

[stinkypete]

Allen's current contract is:
- 2018 (turns 28): $4.5M salary ... $500k weekly roster bonuses
- 2019 (turns 29): $6.9M salary ... $500k weekly roster bonuses
- Zero guaranteed.

At this money, I see no way that Allen gets cut. There isn't a suitable replacement available in free agency who can receive and block.

Also, count me in the minority that thinks that CB will NOT be a free agent priority. Jonathan Jones is Butler's replacement, and he had a better season than Butler before he went on IR.

I think fans and media have overblown the defensive backs role in the defense getting gashed. There were far too many short to intermediate passes in which the linebackers let Philly receivers get by them. Roberts and Harrison were both exploited throughout the game. The solution to this problem (outside of a healthy Hightower) is to find a 3 down linebacker to replace the hole left by Collins.

 

[supafly]

They are supposed to be the locks, given all the circumstances (particularly the age issue) but a lot depends on Mitchell being healthy. If he is not, we will keep Edelman and Amendola for at least another year.

I just can’t get behind the idea of moving on from Amendola no matter what for the kind of value that he’s giving us, particularly after arguably his best season/postseason, and especially with Edelman coming off another serious injury again.

I don’t think that it’s anything of a lock that we’ll be keeping both Dorsett and Mitchell, particularly the former who I believe deserves an extended look with a full offseason, but may not impress enough to be guaranteed a roster spot. If we do happen to keep both, then I think consideration should be given to keeping 6 true wide receivers, which would’ve been the case had Mitchell been activated from IR. Usually, injuries take care of this “problem” anyway, so it’s likely that we’ll have this debate all offseason and it won’t even matter in the end since someone will likely be placed on PUP or something.

 

[ATippett56]

At this money, I see no way that Allen gets cut. There isn't a suitable replacement available in free agency who can receive and block.

Also, count me in the minority that thinks that CB will NOT be a free agent priority. Jonathan Jones is Butler's replacement, and he had a better season than Butler before he went on IR.

I think fans and media have overblown the defensive backs role in the defense getting gashed. There were far too many short to intermediate passes in which the linebackers let Philly receivers get by them. Roberts and Harrison were both exploited throughout the game. The solution to this problem (outside of a healthy Hightower) is to find a 3 down linebacker to replace the hole left by Collins.

Dwayne Allen
2017 NFL Season
10 receptions, 22 targets, 86 receiving yards

Dwayne Allen 2017 Game Log | Pro-Football-Reference.com

 

[supafly]

At this money, I see no way that Allen gets cut. There isn't a suitable replacement available in free agency who can receive and block.

Two thoughts come to mind:

1) What does “at this money” mean to you? Dwayne Allen is currently scheduled to be either the 8th or 9th highest cap hit on the team, depending on whether or not we keep Martellus Bennett.

2) When has he ever been able to block AND receive here in NE? That certainly hasn’t happened. At the moment, Allen is a fairly expensive blocking TE in a role that we’ve seen cheap guys like Lengel and Hooman lock down here for much lesser money.

 

[ATippett56]

Two thoughts come to mind:

1) What does “at this money” mean to you? Dwayne Allen is currently scheduled to be either the 8th or 9th highest cap hit on the team, depending on whether or not we keep Martellus Bennett.

2) When has he ever been able to block AND receive here in NE? That certainly hasn’t happened. At the moment, Allen is a fairly expensive blocking TE in a role that we’ve seen cheap guys like Lengel and Hooman lock down here for much lesser money.

2018 Potential Cuts: Tight End | Over the Cap

 

[cupofjoe1962]

If Jordon Richards is on the team in 2018, the Patriots Pro shop better start selling Patriots straight jackets for the fans.

I know, I will need one.

 

[maineman209]

I just can’t get behind the idea of moving on from Amendola no matter what for the kind of value that he’s giving us, particularly after arguably his best season/postseason, and especially with Edelman coming off another serious injury again.

I don’t think that it’s anything of a lock that we’ll be keeping both Dorsett and Mitchell, particularly the former who I believe deserves an extended look with a full offseason, but may not impress enough to be guaranteed a roster spot. If we do happen to keep both, then I think consideration should be given to keeping 6 true wide receivers, which would’ve been the case had Mitchell been activated from IR. Usually, injuries take care of this “problem” anyway, so it’s likely that we’ll have this debate all offseason and it won’t even matter in the end since someone will likely be placed on PUP or something.

It's nearly 7 months until roster cutdowns to the final 53. The Pats are just beginning to build up to the 90-man roster that they'll have for most of that time, and from which that final 53 will be selected. A lot of things will shake out over the course of the coming seven months, a lot of questions will be answered. There will be some surprises and some disappointments.

It is what it is. It would be nice if folks stopped getting ahead of themselves and chose, instead, to just roll with it.

In terms of WRs, the team typically carries at least a dozen through the end of September. Some of them are mere Camp bodies, the rest may be legit competitors for spots on the 53-man or the PS. As with most positions, the larger the off-season selection is, the more likely the final selection is to be very good.

My guess is that most, if not all, of the 9 WRs currently under contract will be in that off-season mix. It's probably 50-50 that Amendola joins them. Given that two of the contracted WRs are coming off IR (knees) and that four (including Amendola) are, or will soon be, in the 30+ club, it seems at least a little more likely than not that the 90-man roster includes maybe 13-14 WRs (at times) in order to scope out some younger candidates.

Again, this is all just "out-of-town" tryouts and rehearsals. The 2018 Show won't settle on a final cast until just before it opens on Broadway in early September.

 

[maineman209]

At this money, I see no way that Allen gets cut. There isn't a suitable replacement available in free agency who can receive and block.

Also, count me in the minority that thinks that CB will NOT be a free agent priority. Jonathan Jones is Butler's replacement, and he had a better season than Butler before he went on IR.

I think fans and media have overblown the defensive backs role in the defense getting gashed. There were far too many short to intermediate passes in which the linebackers let Philly receivers get by them. Roberts and Harrison were both exploited throughout the game. The solution to this problem (outside of a healthy Hightower) is to find a 3 down linebacker to replace the hole left by Collins.

Jon Jones showed unexpectedly well (to me anyway) this season in both the slot and on the boundaries. Bademosi is a top special-teamer (important considering the possibility that Slater, at age 33, may choose to retire), and was more than adequate as an emergency replacement CB for a couple consecutive games in mid-season (regardless how he performed at safety, briefly, in the SB). For all his failings as a punt returner, Cy Jones really wasn't bad in coverage when he played (and was a pretty decent tackler).

With Gilmore and Rowe, that's a pretty solid base to begin with at CB. The Pats will certainly add a couple other candidates to compete on the 90-man roster, but (I agree) I don't think they'll be chasing any notable (expensive) UFA corners. Now, if Sherman gets cut and shows up at BB's door begging to play for $5M or so, that's a whole 'nother story.

I think the roster emphasis for the secondary this offseason is more likely to be safety than corner - and maybe the semi-mythical "coverage LB". With the "RPO craze" seeming poised now to expand considerably across the "copycat" league, it seems to me that being able to stop the run and (selectively) remove that option, while maintaining decent coverage over the middle, will become more important than ever.

 

[maineman209]

Boy, that has the potential to be a difficult call for a guy like Belichick, who would normally turn down such demands. In my opinion, If we can get to the lower end of that 3/15 projection, it could be done.

In APY terms, $5M really isn't very much, and a $5M cap hit for 2018 would still be outside the top-10.

Of course, even with a 3/$18M contract, it would be back-loaded so that the 2018 cap hit would probably be more like $3M - more like the bottom of the top-20. I think BB could live with that.

 

[patriot1136]

What was J. Jones injury? Will he be back at full strength?
Would like to see them keep Bademosi, he seems like a solid role player.

 

[mgteich]

We're building a 90 man roster, with lots of competition for camp, lots of protection in case the injured don't come back at 100% and lots of protection against future injuries.

STEP ONE
getting rid of folks who have no possible future with the patriots at any price (we're moving on)

STEP TWO
renegotiating with or cutting those who have bonuses that make the player to expensive before their bonuses are due

STEP THREE
renegotiating or restructuring with players to free up cap room

STEP FOUR
negotiating with our own free agents and signing those who can be signed before the deadline

STEP FIVE
negotiations in the few days before and after the start of free agency, with initial signings (if any)

STEP FIVE
signings after the first wave of free agent signings

STEP SIX
the draft, including trades the week before and during the draft

STEP SEVEN
fill in signings after the draft

 

[maineman209]

What was J. Jones injury? Will he be back at full strength?
Would like to see them keep Bademosi, he seems like a solid role player.

Originally reported as a "left leg" injury for Jone Jones, apparently it was officially a foot injury.

 

[Deus Irae]

At this money, I see no way that Allen gets cut. There isn't a suitable replacement available in free agency who can receive and block.

I don't think he'll be back at those numbers, but time will tell the tale.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Jon Jones showed unexpectedly well (to me anyway) this season in both the slot and on the boundaries. Bademosi is a top special-teamer (important considering the possibility that Slater, at age 33, may choose to retire), and was more than adequate as an emergency replacement CB for a couple consecutive games in mid-season (regardless how he performed at safety, briefly, in the SB). For all his failings as a punt returner, Cy Jones really wasn't bad in coverage when he played (and was a pretty decent tackler).

With Gilmore and Rowe, that's a pretty solid base to begin with at CB. The Pats will certainly add a couple other candidates to compete on the 90-man roster, but (I agree) I don't think they'll be chasing any notable (expensive) UFA corners. Now, if Sherman gets cut and shows up at BB's door begging to play for $5M or so, that's a whole 'nother story.

I think the roster emphasis for the secondary this offseason is more likely to be safety than corner - and maybe the semi-mythical "coverage LB". With the "RPO craze" seeming poised now to expand considerably across the "copycat" league, it seems to me that being able to stop the run and (selectively) remove that option, while maintaining decent coverage over the middle, will become more important than ever.

What was J. Jones injury? Will he be back at full strength?
Would like to see them keep Bademosi, he seems like a solid role player.

Jones was great this year, and I'd feel pretty okay about him stepping into Butler's role, but the knee injury does worry me quite a bit. I don't think the team ever did disclose exactly what it was, just that it was a leg injury. That could mean basically anything: pessimistically, could be an ACL--which looked like a real possibility but who can really say without confirmation--then he probably won't be available to start 2018. Just gotta hope it's one of those 4-6 week type injuries, which would explain the Pats immediately IRing him after the Tennessee game but also shouldn't really affect his ability to get ready for next season.