Picking college is way easier than picking the pros. The problem with the pros is that they are too consistent. The point spreads are too accurate.
For college, just pick the bullies to win and win big. Top 10 teams were 5-0-1 against the spread today in games not played against other top 10 teams. Top-25 teams were 9-2-1 against the spread against non top-25 teams. Easy money.
I can't blame the coach when the players failed to execute fundamentals. You're using 20/20 hindsight to criticize the coach for doing the smart thing. If they let the QB run around a bit and then MSU wins on a Hail Mary, Harbaugh would be crucified for not punting. And I have never, ever, once in my life seen a guy line up behind the punter to protect against a bad snap. With one less blocker, that invites a blocked punt.
Unfortunately, it isn't quite as easy as you're making it sound in terms of the "bullies" covering the spread vs. unranked talent. What was
Ohio State's record vs the spread this year prior to pulling away tonight? They were 1-5.
Alabama vs the spread going into yesterday's game? 2-4.
LSU vs the spread going into yesterday's game? 2-3.
How about
Michigan State's failure to cover this year?
And we haven't even gotten out of the top 10 yet.
-------------------------------------------------------
If there was a clear cut method to picking top 25 teams to cover vs. unranked opponents (giving 40 and 50 points), everyone would do it. The secret would've gotten out. Trust me on that. It's good to know that the method would've paid off today, though. As a whole, most people tend to shy away from laying -44 points, and for good reason. Who wants to be up 52-7 and sweating a game if the opposition scores a meaningless TD in garbage time?
As far as blaming Harbaugh, Scott Zolak claimed that they always practiced the 7 step drop/run around and heave it play, since it was much safer than taking risk of bobbling the snap on a punt. I do agree that hindsight is 20/20. There's risk no matter what, but yes--Im pretty sure that teams have put someone back deep in situations where it's the
only way you'd get beat.
Either way, we'll be hearing plenty about the decision in the coming days.