To be fair to AJ, there wasn't exactly an army of posters high on JE. AJ and a 1000 others were low-ish on JE except for his return skills.
Fyi, I'm not sticking up for AJ (he is a capable poster who doesn't need my assistance). I'm just saying there will be JE humble pie being served at 1000 PatsFan member's Thanksgiving tables this year. Fortunately I was in the minority and can look forward to pumpkin and blueberry
To be fair though, Edelman's actual skills at the position of receiver were far from being considered "good," and he is still currently working on his progress in that area. As we've seen several times or more this year, he has made some bad mistakes too in terms of not reading the defense properly and running the wrong route. Coming into this year he had posted receiving numbers of 37, 7, 4, and 21---and he had been injured pretty significantly. In terms of being considered "good" as an actual receiver, he hadn't shown too much prior to this season aside from flashes here and there, and even that was mainly in the slot role.
The great news is that Belichick, JMcD, and Chad O'Shea have continued to give him the proper time to try and develop and progress in that role, and I think that we've seen some significant development in that area and will continue to in the future if he stays here. I honestly believe that if he stays for another 2-3 yrs, he can have the potential to see a bigger deal of 5-6 million AAV if he continues to polish his skills as more of an actual receiver.
He's got great moves, is one of the most shiftiest players in the entire league, has a ton of heart and guts, and his special teams play is on par with some of the best in the entire NFL. I hope that they pay a little extra on his next pact to keep him here and allow him to continue to develop in polishing his skills in the transformation from a college QB. He is very talented for sure.
JE has worked his way toward what might be a 2.5-3 million a year salary
I find your guesstimate to be directly in line with my own. I think that a nice raise from 700k to 2.5/3 million AAV is in order, and I hope he stays and continues to develop for the next couple/few years here as our WR3-4 (which could allow him to climb up that ladder even more in the next year or two).
Just his ST presence, versatility, and raw talent alone are likely worth double his 700k salary. The concern will be whether he's looking for a bigger payday or how much Belichick will come up a bit on what he sees his value at to at least make things "reasonable" enough to keep him. As we know, Belichick coming up in his value doesn't happen very often, but I'm hoping that he is pleased with Edelman's progress and that he sees a future with him here.