Free agent signings - losing our touch?

[salty]

I hope the Patriots don't abandon free agency and rely exclusively

on the draft. Most draft choices need a couple of years to develop.

Some never develop into good players.

This current team has some glaring weaknesses. They need a couple

of good linebackers for immediate use in their linebacker rotation, a

good cornerback (especially if the Samuel situation turns out badly)

and a good wide receiver. Due to the complexity of the Pats offensive

and defensive systems, I don't think rookies can fill these roles.

I disagree with you when it comes to CB...I think they could (and probably should) draft a CB relatively high this year and expect that he will be able to contribute in nickel or at least dime packages this year.

However, I do agree that our concerns at linebacker and wide receiver cannot be addressed exclusively through the draft. High quality veteran free agent acquisitions are necessary at both those positions, IMO.

 

[Ring 6]

First, you have to accept Reiss' rating as gospel to draw the conclusion that was drawn.
I dont. My top 10- bottom 10 would be very different.
Secondly, of course guys brought in 6 years ago are more likely to be on the the top list than the bottom list, because most of them have already completed their career, or come close, while guys signed in 05-06 still have more to contribute.
Example, David Patten top FA, Reche Caldwell not. Pattens Pat career is over and can be judged. Caldwell has been here 1 year.
Secondly, recent failures are more memorable than older ones. The simple fact that David Terrell can make a bottom 10 list, after being signed for NOTHING and not making the team says there really arent even 10 bad decisions. Every team signs dozens of guys every year for that price range (ulitmately zero) that don't make the team. How is Terrell a worse signing than Kyle Ecker, or Patrick Cobbs, for example? Because the name sticks out?

Where is the Eric Bjornson fiasco? Or Torrance Small, Bert Emanuel.
This is based on newer guys not yet finsihing proving the value of their addition, and recent guys who didnt cut it being closer in the memory.

There is absolutely nothing that stands out in this, with the possible exception of when BB got here the roster was so bad he signed tons of FAs, and since he has built a champion there isnt much room on the roster.

i wont even begin to go into how the lack of cap room has affected this.

 

[PromisedLand]

We should also consider the idea that BB and Co. may not have felt an overwhelming imperative to "fix" the team or take risks on free agents over the past couple of seasons, owing to the Super Bowl victories and such.

Going into 2006-7 season, they targetted a few players but were outplayed by other more aggressive teams. They lost a few players such as David Givens and Adam V at the last minute when they might have felt they had further time to renegotiate to greater advantage. They felt they had Deshea Townsend but he was yanked back to the Steelers in a last minute deal. The teams patience when it came to pursuing free agents proved to be a good strategy in the past, but hurt them greatly when they came up virtually empty handed going into the 2006-7 season. In a way then, the team was a victim of their own success in free agency.

Prior to going into this last season, the team was coming off two consecutive Super Bowl victories--hardly a recipe to toss big $ around in free agency.

Based on these ideas, we might see the Pats come out more aggressively this offseason. They haven't been to the Super Bowl in two years, and they were clearly outmaneuvered in free agency last year.

Can't wait to see how BB and Pioli respond.

Very good hypothesis. In the 2005 free agency signing period we were coming off our 3rd Super Bowl in 4 years and they may have felt the team was pretty well set at that point. Too, things like TJ suddenly retiring on the eve of training camp messed up their plans a bit.

However, I also think that in 2006-07, BB and SP underestimated how much the suddenly and dramatically expanded salary cap would inflate the market prices of free agents. I hope they will have it gauged right this year.

 

[mcsully]

A thought popped in my head while grabbing dinner... Law of diminishing return.. This could explain why the pats tend not to over spend or spend to the cap.

Pats went 12-4 and were a few plays from going to the superbowl and being favorites in it.

How much better could they be if they brought in high priced free agents? Would the get an extra win? Would that push them into another Super Bowl?
But what are the effects? Not allowing them to be flexilble in the future?

I think at some point the pats look at the law of diminishing return. Bringing in free agents that don't work out could cause issues in the locker room because of the poor performances..

Look at TO. Eagles thought he would push them over the top.. And he sure did.. A couple of ways.. But at the end of the day, that team was beaten down for over a year..

 

[PatsFanInVa]

A thought popped in my head while grabbing dinner... Law of diminishing return.. This could explain why the pats tend not to over spend or spend to the cap.

Given the broad subject of Free Agency, "Law" and "return" in the same phrase kind of tickles me

By the way... the Pats do spend to the cap, but do not overspend. It's explained by the Pats' idea of how to do business in the NFL, in which, indeed, the law of diminishing return could be said to figure prominently.

PFnV

 

[NoCal Patriot]

You're very astute PromisedLand. Many of the arguments I have had

on this forum are on this very subject. I have been called a few choice

names for pointing out that our free agency aquisitions in 2005 and 2006

weren't as good as earlier ones.

Jimke,I don't disagree with your point but I think the Patriot's Situation has altered drastically over the past 6 years. In those "Early Days" Bill had the carrot of "Significant Playing Time" to offer.This Team in the past couple of years has much better talent than in 2000 and 2001 and many of those opportunities that developed (ie Mike Vrabel) are now not even looking at The Patriots.I'm sure if You gave Belichick and Paoli truth serum they never in their wildest dreams anticipated that Mike Vrabel to develop into what He became.

 

[PromisedLand]

Jimke,I don't disagree with your point but I think the Patriot's Situation has altered drastically over the past 6 years. In those "Early Days" Bill had the carrot of "Significant Playing Time" to offer.This Team in the past couple of years has much better talent than in 2000 and 2001 and many of those opportunities that developed (ie Mike Vrabel) are now not even looking at The Patriots.I'm sure if You gave Belichick and Paoli truth serum they never in their wildest dreams anticipated that Mike Vrabel to develop into what He became.

True, but now he has the carrot of "Chance to Win a Super Bowl" to offer.

 

[signbabybrady]

Given the broad subject of Free Agency, "Law" and "return" in the same phrase kind of tickles me


PFnV

but it also includes the word diminishing which is true of law.

 

[brdmaverick]

Maybe I am missing the point, but what about Artrell Hawkins, Reche Caldwell, Jabar Gafney, Ray Mickens, Heath Evans, Josh Miller, Todd Sauerbrun, Chad Scott???

Ok we have not won the SB yet with these guys, but that does not lessen their value.

good point, if we had won the Super Bowl this year we would probably see Jabar Gafney on this list due to his significance in the post season

 

[mcsully]

By the way... the Pats do spend to the cap, but do not overspend. It's explained by the Pats' idea of how to do business in the NFL, in which, indeed, the law of diminishing return could be said to figure prominently.

PFnV

I'm confused. As i recall in all the articles I read, the pats were one of the teams with the most cap space this past year.

And isn't what you said basically what I said in your last sentence?

 

[Deus Irae]

First of all, to those who are hijacking this thread with personal attacks on each other, please go elsewhere.

Now to respond to Rob - you brought up some interesting names. Caldwell, Hawkins, Gaffney and Seau certainly were good pickups. You might even add Randall Gay to that list. But remember, I didn't make up the top ten lists, I just analyzed the timing factor regarding the lists that Mike Reiss wrote. He presumably wrote them without an agenda regarding timing, since he didn't mention it.

Still, you may have touched on something - if a free agent is an unmitigated disaster (Beisel), you don't have to wait very long before putting him on the bottom ten list, but if he is a good pickup you might not want to put him on the top ten until he has contributed for at least a couple of years.

So that might be part of it. But my sense is that it is not a big factor.

http://www.patriots.com/history/index.cfm?ac=freeagents

There was not a single bust in the 2006 signings. Mitchell and Jones got injured, so there's nothing to judge. Gramatica was brought in to compete for a job, and did well enough that he was picked up by another team later in the season. Caldwell, Gaffney, Sauerbrun, Scott and Seau all contributed.

If you want to see a truly bad season, check out 2002.

 

[RayClay]

I really don't think there's good value in free agency unless the perfect player is available to fit your need,

There used to be a big June cut too and that is pretty much gone. Pats have gotten great value by staying away from the big names.

Of course when you're waiting for bargains, your going to go through a lot of misfits. 10 bargains won't cost what 1 big name FA bust will, though.

 

[PATRIOTS-80]

Of course when you're waiting for bargains, your going to go through a lot of misfits. 10 bargains won't cost what 1 big name FA bust will, though.

I agree. Its the risk/reward thing.

 

[RayClay]

I agree. Its the risk/reward thing.

Having said that, the right LB might fall into the high dollar value category this year.

Their LB situation scares me, quite frankly. They need to restock in the draft and FA and hope Tully, Woods and Mays can be adequate depth.

Davis and Izzo's time will be up soon also.

 

[PATRIOTS-80]

Having said that, the right LB might fall into the high dollar value category this year.

Their LB situation scares me, quite frankly. They need to restock in the draft and FA and hope Tully, Woods and Mays can be adequate depth.

Davis and Izzo's time will be up soon also.

I like Polk or Jarrett Johnson from the Ravens.

I think Bradley (256 lbs) could play ILB or OLB, same with Zak Deossie (250). Those are my two favorites in the draft.

Of course, I got no problem having Tully as a pass-rush specialist, depth guy.

Imagine if our young corp looked like this:

Woods, Alexander, Stewart Bradley, TBC

And our starters:

Colvin, Bruschi, Vrabel, Polk

 

[RayClay]

I like Polk or Jarrett Johnson from the Ravens.

I think Bradley (256 lbs) could play ILB or OLB, same with Zak Deossie (250). Those are my two favorites in the draft.

Of course, I got no problem having Tully as a pass-rush specialist, depth guy.

Imagine if our young corp looked like this:

Woods, Alexander, Stewart Bradley, TBC

And our starters:

Colvin, Bruschi, Vrabel, Polk

There was a thread about TBC wanting to come back. LOL. What choice does he have? He was exposed in the crucial part of the season.

But, a reasonable contract turns an inadequate starter into experienced depth.

Davis might be gone already from what i read, (can't find the article), says as a speed player if he doesn't regain that after his rehab, he'll retire. There are vaccuums at OLB, ILB and special teams LB coming up.

Hopefully Woods, Mays and TBC can cover the ST/backup roles and some talent will be brought in.

 

[PromisedLand]

I like Polk or Jarrett Johnson from the Ravens.

I think Bradley (256 lbs) could play ILB or OLB, same with Zak Deossie (250). Those are my two favorites in the draft.

Of course, I got no problem having Tully as a pass-rush specialist, depth guy.

Imagine if our young corp looked like this:

Woods, Alexander, Stewart Bradley, TBC

And our starters:

Colvin, Bruschi, Vrabel, Polk

We might draft a LB in the first round but don't expect him to be a starter (not that you said he would be):

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/showpost.php?p=351621&postcount=28

 

[PatsFanInVa]

I'm confused. As i recall in all the articles I read, the pats were one of the teams with the most cap space this past year.

And isn't what you said basically what I said in your last sentence?

McS, yes, we are up in the top 3rd or so of the league (or were before franchising Samuel.) They will undoubtedly still spend to the cap. They were something like an extra-value meal's worth under the cap when the smoke cleared from last season. This season's balance sheet will almost certainly look the same, when all is said and done.

And yes, I was agreeing with you in my last sentence, including the law of diminishing returns in the Pats' business model. That is the significance of the use of "indeed" there.

PFnV

 

[captain stone]

Having said that, the right LB might fall into the high dollar value category this year.

Their LB situation scares me, quite frankly. They need to restock in the draft and FA and hope Tully, Woods and Mays can be adequate depth.

Davis and Izzo's time will be up soon also.

I agree completely, except:
Mays needs to be replaced by someone with talent.
Davis and Izzo's time is already up.

 

[IcyPatriot]

I really don't think there's good value in free agency unless the perfect player is available to fit your need,

There used to be a big June cut too and that is pretty much gone. Pats have gotten great value by staying away from the big names.

Of course when you're waiting for bargains, your going to go through a lot of misfits. 10 bargains won't cost what 1 big name FA bust will, though.

Yup ... RayClay makes alot of sense ... I thought it was a good rehash thread for those having panic attacks.

In Bill & Scott I trust.