Statistical Look at Hernandez' Impact

[ivanvamp]

Looking at all three years' worth of data, regular season only. Here's what the Patriots have done:

TOTAL (52 games)
PPG: 33.1
YPG: 406.5

With Hernandez (42 games)
PPG: 31.6
YPG: 396.7

Without Hernandez (10 games)
PPG: 38.8
YPG: 444.0

I think they can replace him effectively, as good as he is.

 

[PATS16N0]

Dumb and Dumber- So you're telling me there's a chance - YouTube

 

[Ring 6]

Looking at all three years' worth of data, regular season only. Here's what the Patriots have done:

TOTAL (52 games)
PPG: 33.1
YPG: 406.5

With Hernandez (42 games)
PPG: 31.6
YPG: 396.7

Without Hernandez (10 games)
PPG: 38.8
YPG: 444.0

I think they can replace him effectively, as good as he is.

The real loss is that we created such mismatches with the TEs.
Hernandez' best attribute was agility to get open and run after the catch.
I'm not extremely worried that Tom Brady won't be able to find anyone open.
But right now there is a lot of work to figure out who is in those roles.

 

[ivanvamp]

The real loss is that we created such mismatches with the TEs.
Hernandez' best attribute was agility to get open and run after the catch.
I'm not extremely worried that Tom Brady won't be able to find anyone open.
But right now there is a lot of work to figure out who is in those roles.

Agreed. Lots of things are up in the air at this point, but the data over Hernandez' entire pro career suggests that the Patriots will be able to be very productive without him. There is no data (that I know of) that suggests that they will not be productive without him.

He's a terrific player, but they've actually been significantly more productive - both in points and yards - without him in the lineup. And that's over his entire career, not just a single season.

I actually found those numbers very surprising, but they are what they are.

 

[Ring 6]

Agreed. Lots of things are up in the air at this point, but the data over Hernandez' entire pro career suggests that the Patriots will be able to be very productive without him. There is no data (that I know of) that suggests that they will not be productive without him.

He's a terrific player, but they've actually been significantly more productive - both in points and yards - without him in the lineup. And that's over his entire career, not just a single season.

I actually found those numbers very surprising, but they are what they are.

But its not the same team (pass offense) minus Hernandez. Is minus Hernandez, Welker, Lloyd/Branch and Gronk is a question.

My thinking all along has been that the passing game will take a new focus without Welker. Now it must adjust to either not having a 2 TE base or having one that lacks the TE who has a good amount of WR skills.

 

[ivanvamp]

But its not the same team (pass offense) minus Hernandez. Is minus Hernandez, Welker, Lloyd/Branch and Gronk is a question.

Absolutely right. So I'm not comparing the 2013 Patriots' offense to the 2012 Patriots' offense, because your point here is spot-on. I'm just saying that over his 3-year career, the Patriots have been *more* productive without Hernandez than they were *with* him. Surprising to me, but true nonetheless. And I think that it suggests that a 2013 Patriots' offense minus Hernandez probably won't be far off what it would have been with him, despite him being a premier talent. I don't really know how that all works, because logic would suggest that they'd suffer a big drop off without him, but the numbers just don't bear that out.

My thinking all along has been that the passing game will take a new focus without Welker. Now it must adjust to either not having a 2 TE base or having one that lacks the TE who has a good amount of WR skills.

I agree. I think we'll likely see an emphasis on running, play-action, dink-and-dunk (think back to the 2001-2004 type offense), and throwing to the backs.

It would help immensely if (a) the defense really stepped up, and (b) one or two of these rookie WRs emerges as a potential star.

And for goodness' sake, let's hope Gronk comes back soon and is healthy all season long!

 

[Jangles]

The real loss is that we created such mismatches with the TEs.
Hernandez' best attribute was agility to get open and run after the catch.
I'm not extremely worried that Tom Brady won't be able to find anyone open.
But right now there is a lot of work to figure out who is in those roles.

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but you clearly haven't seen the roster yet.

 

[supafly]

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but you clearly haven't seen the roster yet.

The committment to the running game will definitely still be there, if not even heightened, so we're not losing anything in that aspect.

The passes out of the backfield shouldn't change much, so that's another area that is just fine.

The 2 TE sets should still be dominant in my opinion, but we will be more limited without the aspect of a very effective joker/move TE--unless that can somehow be replicated at a certain percentage of production. To me, that is my biggest concern.

The slot receiving and quick pass bread and butter shouldn't be changed too much with Amemdola and possibly even Edelman to take those snaps.

The outside game actually has the potential to be better, but now we're getting into an area that we need to rely on young unproven rookies to do so. That would be my next concern at #2, after the question of losing AH.

It will be up to Belichick to decide how/when/what schemes to use and the specifics that go into that call, but the prospect of losing the ability to keep defenses on their toes for fear of both pass/run with our past 2 TE sets, along with the loss of the versatility and ability to keep the same personnel on the field is what bothers me.

I'd still have to imagine a scoring average in the high 20's at worst, but that's my personal opinion. I definitely understand the concern, especially after the recent loss of AH.

 

[ausbacker]

The committment to the running game will definitely still be there, if not even heightened, so we're not losing anything in that aspect.

The passes out of the backfield shouldn't change much, so that's another area that is just fine.

The 2 TE sets should still be dominant in my opinion, but we will be more limited without the aspect of a very effective joker/move TE--unless that can somehow be replicated at a certain percentage of production. To me, that is my biggest concern.

The slot receiving and quick pass bread and butter shouldn't be changed too much with Amemdola and possibly even Edelman to take those snaps.

The outside game actually has the potential to be better, but now we're getting into an area that we need to rely on young unproven rookies to do so. That would be my next concern at #2, after the question of losing AH.

It will be up to Belichick to decide how/when/what schemes to use and the specifics that go into that call, but the prospect of losing the ability to keep defenses on their toes for fear of both pass/run with our past 2 TE sets, along with the loss of the versatility and ability to keep the same personnel on the field is what bothers me.

I'd still have to imagine a scoring average in the high 20's at worst, but that's my personal opinion. I definitely understand the concern, especially after the recent loss of AH.

I'd be at ease with a scoring average in the high 20's if it means the scoring average against regresses into the teens. Go Defense go!

I must admit, as fun as it's been to watch this high octane O operate, I miss the days where the Patriots D would choke the life out of the opposition with that necessary big play.

 

[Sicilian]

But right now there is a lot of work to figure out who is in those roles.

This is the most important point to me. It's not that Hernandez's production or talent can't be replaced if a few guys step up. It's that it adds yet another unknown element to the offense that will take time to sort out.

Added to that is the fact the Pats defense always seems to take 4-6 weeks to really start to show improvement lately. Perhaps with a little more continuity this year they'll start faster, but if the offense is out of sync during the same stretch where the defense is finding its legs, AND we're in the Tampa/Atlanta/Cincinnati/New Orleans part of the schedule... it's going to be a challenge.

In an odd way, I'm kind of looking forward to it. I want to see these guys rise to this kind of fight.

 

[NYCPatsFan]

...

In an odd way, I'm kind of looking forward to it. I want to see these guys rise to this kind of fight.

Exactly my feelings too.

 

[hovis]

Looking at all three years' worth of data, regular season only. Here's what the Patriots have done:

TOTAL (52 games)
PPG: 33.1
YPG: 406.5

With Hernandez (42 games)
PPG: 31.6
YPG: 396.7

Without Hernandez (10 games)
PPG: 38.8
YPG: 444.0

I think they can replace hIM effectively, as good as he is.

Losing AHern is a huge blow. They'll adjust, but a setback for a few games wouldnt be a huge surprise.

That may be an insufficient sample size minus Hernandez. Plus, what was the competition? IIRC, AHern sat out some vs weaker competition during his ankle injury, which could skew numbers.


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[JFK]

Did you account for quality of opponent, other injuries and home/away games. The Pats paid him $$$ for a reason.

 

[patsfan-1982]

he was a good player but he's stats were not amazing and he was hurt a lot the guy the pats are going to miss the most is Wes Welker, Hernandez's 3 year average was 60 rec 650 yards and 6 TD's a season I think one of the rookies can get that easy

 

[Bella*chick]

Well, according to his attorneys yesterday he has a back problem that appears chronic so chances are he would have been injured at some point this year anyway.

 

[RoughingthePasser]

Aaron was a strong, quick, versatile receiver that won't be replaced.

We will make the passing game happen without him.

Tom Brady has played with some awesome TE's...some drafted (Graham,Watson)...some FA's etc.
He knows how to use all his weapons.

Tom will find what works through practicing with the team.

TE's:
Rob Gronkowski-the Best TE in the league
Jake Ballard
Michael Hooamanui
Zac Sudfeld
Dan Fells...


WR's:
Julian Edelman (exc in slot as well...filled in well for Welker during his IR-can return)
Danny Amendola (versatile...potential to snatch some bombs with TB)
Jenkins, Boyce, Dobson......(we shall see)

Backs:
Leon Washington (exc returner)
Stevan Ridley (1200yds)
Blount
Vereen (receiver too)
Bolden

we may see double back sets...maybe even wildcat with Tebow playing Back,QB, TE....we have some versatile players...even Edelman could play QB if he had to.

I'm more excited for our defense and hope all patfans can move on from this whole ahern mess....we've been through enough over the last decade
we have to go all the way and finish....on top (like the NYG did)

TB will make his crew happen-he's the best.

I want a suffocating, shut-down defense that just ruins teams.

 

[Claremonster]

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but you clearly haven't seen the roster yet.

None of us have Bozone...

 

[Deus Irae]

None of us have Bozone...

Official Website of the New England Patriots | Team - Players

 

[Bruins29]

None of us have Bozone...

Yep! Everyone can mark down September 1 in their calendar. That is the day you will see the 53 roster. Complain then.

 

[pherein]

I really dont think it will have much of an impact, and the Pats are a better team that hes gone. Their are plenty of guys out there, known and unknown, that are as good as AH. Its a good thing that he didnt have a chance to impact the locker room with his immaturity.
Their are way to many guys playing football for money and the wrong reasons these days, and AH is obviously one of those.
You have a coach, QB, and alot of other guys that love the game, and desurve his spot. Players and coaches that respect the fans, just love to play, and try their hearts out… and maybe they wont be as good as AH might have been, but Id take those players every time over the AH, Vicks, plaxico and Gw's.
Patriots fans have been been threw a lot of bad and amazing times, and always comeback to loving their boys, keeping their humility, level head, and representing the patriots well to other fans.
This is just an messed up person who was honestly drafted for his talent, doesnt effect our view of the patriots, all they continue to build, and the fans.
Their will be better guys and new welkers that show for the patriots, because they continue to do the right thing.
Statistically AH would have eventual hurt the team in the end, so its good he was found out early. We have a personal bond with our boys , and you have the same. So something like this really hurts, we know. Its a form of betrial hurting our belief, and taken personally, because they are more family than personalities to us.
But AH will soon, if not already ,disapear for the fans and the team as they move forward and find better players and fall in love with the team all over again.
No imapct at all, I think.

The strongest player, fastest player, most amazing physical specimen, is not what makes a great player, its their heart. It might be time to heal from this AH stuff and move on for patriots fans. Not trying to be to bold, please excuse me if I am. He is not worth your forum space. Plenty of great pats players to talk about that appreciate you as a fans. We still hold you in the highest regard. Hope im not intruding on this personal issue.