NFL Stat - 37% of 2012 UFA rookies got jobs

[JoeSixPat]

Undrafted rookies continue to have impact | ProFootballTalk

Seemed to me this mention was worth further exploration. At the very least it's a good reminder that any lack of actual draft picks is not worth worrying about, as it wouldn't surprise me if Belichick does better with UFAs than the NFL norm.

That being said, I can't help but wonder what Belichick's draft vs. UFA record actually is - in terms of players who actually made the active roster, rather than just the practice squad (as that's the bulk of the NFL majority within the 37%)

All I know is that Belichick has proven time and again that once you're on his team, where you were drafted or what your cap hit is doesn't mean much for your chances of making the team - and a hard working UFA has as much a chance as anyone taken high in the draft.

Any with any time want to delve further into this intriguing stat and see what Belichick's true success rate with UFAs making it onto his active roster in their careers is?

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

"a hard working UFA has as much a chance as anyone taken high in the draft."

I'd amend this to "a hard working UFA has as much an opportunity as anyone taken high in the draft.

 

[Claremonster]

Fletch and Ron Brace come to my mind as a good comp for this thread.

 

[Deus Irae]

Fletch and Ron Brace come to my mind as a good comp for this thread.

Ron Brace got four years. If he'd been a UDFA, he'd have been lucky to get two. Despite the OP's claim, that "a hard working UFA has as much a chance as anyone taken high in the draft.", time has shown us, again and again, that the real world of the NE Patriots doesn't work like that. Picks in the 3rd round and up get more chances than lower round draftees and UDFAs, and that makes sense from an investment standpoint.

 

[Ring 6]

Ron Brace got four years. If he'd been a UDFA, he'd have been lucky to get two. Despite the OP's claim, that "a hard working UFA has as much a chance as anyone taken high in the draft.", time has shown us, again and again, that the real world of the NE Patriots doesn't work like that. Picks in the 3rd round and up get more chances than lower round draftees and UDFAs, and that makes sense from an investment standpoint.

Next on the "Didn't sign Welker so we must revise history to make them look bad" parade.

Your conclusion is totally inconsistent with facts.

 

[JoeSixPat]

Ron Brace got four years. If he'd been a UDFA, he'd have been lucky to get two. Despite the OP's claim, that "a hard working UFA has as much a chance as anyone taken high in the draft.", time has shown us, again and again, that the real world of the NE Patriots doesn't work like that. Picks in the 3rd round and up get more chances than lower round draftees and UDFAs, and that makes sense from an investment standpoint.

Kindof seems like sometimes a few board members go out of their way to pick apart the posts of others to show "they're wrong" for some reason

The point here is that Belichick gives roster spots to the guys who deserve it most - through hard work, production, and yes, sometimes based on potential as well.

As I said I don't have time for deep analysis and numbers crunching -

I'm openly looking for anyone willing to see whether Belichick exceeds or falls short of the NFL average of a 37% "success" rate for UFAs (though again, the 37% includes practice squad players - many of whom will never amount to anything in the NFL)

 

[Deus Irae]

Kindof seems like sometimes a few board members go out of their way to pick apart the posts of others to show "they're wrong" for some reason

That's an interesting theory, but it doesn't apply in this case. I'm with you on BB working with a lot of UDFA players. I just was noting that it's not quite the "everyone's even" situation you were making it seem to be, because it's important to the discussion at hand. It makes it even more impressive when UDFAs make the cuts as significant contributors.

The point here is that Belichick gives roster spots to the guys who deserve it most - through hard work, production, and yes, sometimes based on potential as well.

That's a significant point that you left out earlier, as is the level of investment. It makes a huge difference in the discussion. Guys like O'Connell, Jackson and Brace get chances that UDFAs don't, which runs completely contrary to what you had stated: "and a hard working UFA has as much a chance as anyone taken high in the draft". While BB rewards UDFAs who show him something, and many of them have gone on to show BB was justified in keeping them, he does still treat his top picks differently, and history shows it.

I didn't even say that it was wrong to do. Investment-wise, it makes sense, most of the time. Historically, it's only going to be in relatively rare cases that teams are going to give up on those top picks in that first year or two.

 

[JoeSixPat]

That's an interesting theory, but it doesn't apply in this case. I'm with you on BB working with a lot of UDFA players. I just was noting that it's not quite the "everyone's even" situation you were making it seem to be, because it's important to the discussion at hand. It makes it even more impressive when UDFAs make the cuts as significant contributors.



That's a significant point that you left out earlier, as is the level of investment. It makes a huge difference in the discussion. Guys like O'Connell, Jackson and Brace get chances that UDFAs don't, which runs completely contrary to what you had stated: "and a hard working UFA has as much a chance as anyone taken high in the draft". While BB rewards UDFAs who show him something, and many of them have gone on to show BB was justified in keeping them, he does still treat his top picks differently, and history shows it.

I didn't even say that it was wrong to do. Investment-wise, it makes sense, most of the time. Historically, it's only going been in relatively rare cases that teams are going to give up on those top picks in that first year or two.

Seems to me other coaches/GMs are far less willing to admit their draft and FA mistakes than Belichick - keeping unproductive guys on the roster rather than admit they screwed up.

We've seen him cut guys to whom he's made big investments - be it high in the draft or as well paid heralded free agents with big dead money cap hits - while keeping UFAs on the roster.

Some high draft picks with high potential and upside have certainly found roster spots - though even then most rookies aren't going to cost a lot of money even when drafted late in the first or early in the second -so it doesn't hurt to give a developing player a little extra time if indeed he does have potential.

But the key here is potential and productivity - I don't think where one was drafted or what their guaranteed money is counts for as much in Belichick's eyes.

I think that's a good part of why he's such a success.

 

[Deus Irae]

Seems to me other coaches/GMs are far less willing to admit their draft and FA mistakes than Belichick - keeping unproductive guys on the roster rather than admit they screwed up.

We've seen him cut guys to whom he's made big investments - be it high in the draft or as well paid heralded free agents with big dead money cap hits - while keeping UFAs on the roster.

Some high draft picks with high potential and upside have certainly found roster spots - though even then most rookies aren't going to cost a lot of money even when drafted late in the first or early in the second -so it doesn't hurt to give a developing player a little extra time if indeed he does have potential.

But the key here is potential and productivity - I don't think where one was drafted or what their guaranteed money is counts for as much in Belichick's eyes.

I think that's a good part of why he's such a success.

Go take a look at all the 1st-3rd rounders of the Patriots, and see how many have been cut before year one, after year one, before year two and after year two. I think that will explain my point.

The hook is slower to come for those high round picks.

 

[mcmurtry86]

I'd say that the time (years) Belichick gives a prospect is relative to whether or not he feels that player has maxed out his NFL potential (or maxed out his ability to hit his potential in New England).

Presumably, guys he drafts early are guys he feels have higher ceilings and thus get a bit more time to hit that ceiling. If it's clear that the guy's ceiling was misjudged or isn't going to be attained in New England for whatever reason, that guy is gone pretty quickly.

UDFA's generally aren't high ceiling players and even those who have a "hidden" value are often easy to sneak onto the practice squad. So that they are cut more easily compared to a high pick is a no-brainer.

 

[Nehalem]

I'd say that the time (years) Belichick gives a prospect is relative to whether or not he feels that player has maxed out his NFL potential (or maxed out his ability to hit his potential in New England).

Presumably, guys he drafts early are guys he feels have higher ceilings and thus get a bit more time to hit that ceiling. If it's clear that the guy's ceiling was misjudged or isn't going to be attained in New England for whatever reason, that guy is gone pretty quickly.

UDFA's generally aren't high ceiling players and even those who have a "hidden" value are often easy to sneak onto the practice squad. So that they are cut more easily compared to a high pick is a no-brainer.

I think its pretty simple.

A UFDA is a normally a guy who is not highly regarded. If he comes in and shows nothing there is little reason to keep him around because he is who you thought he was.

An early round draft pick is normally a guy who is highly regarded. If he doesn't show much right away it is natural to keep him around longer and see if he becomes what you thought he would be.

 

[VJCPatriot]

Ron Brace got four years. If he'd been a UDFA, he'd have been lucky to get two. Despite the OP's claim, that "a hard working UFA has as much a chance as anyone taken high in the draft.", time has shown us, again and again, that the real world of the NE Patriots doesn't work like that. Picks in the 3rd round and up get more chances than lower round draftees and UDFAs, and that makes sense from an investment standpoint.

I don't think it's just from an investment standpoint. The guys the Pats drafted in the top 3 rounds are graded higher by the scouts. IE the Pats brass believe these guys have the upside to become starters or standout players. That's why they stick with them longer. Not because of draft position, but because of projection of skills/abilities/talent.

But BB has shown he is more than willing to move past a player once he has proven he can't get it done, will never amount to what was expected of him at the time the pick was made.

I think the Pats have been quite diligent in mining the UDFA prospects after the draft and will continue to do so in the future. Whether those guys ever make it out of the practice squad to make the 53 man roster, well that's up to them.

 

[Jimke]

I don't think it's just from an investment standpoint. The guys the Pats drafted in the top 3 rounds are graded higher by the scouts. IE the Pats brass believe these guys have the upside to become starters or standout players. That's why they stick with them longer. Not because of draft position, but because of projection of skills/abilities/talent.

But BB has shown he is more than willing to move past a player once he has proven he can't get it done, will never amount to what was expected of him at the time the pick was made.

I think the Pats have been quite diligent in mining the UDFA prospects after the draft and will continue to do so in the future. Whether those guys ever make it out of the practice squad to make the 53 man roster, well that's up to them.

The Patriots did a real good job signing UDFAs last year. Bolden, Forston, Francis, and Zusevics were all picked by the draft gurus to be drafted in the mid to final rounds. They were not picked due to medical or other concerns
in college. I hope the Patriots are equally agressive in pursuing UDFAs
this year.

 

[manxman2601]

The Patriots did a real good job signing UDFAs last year. Bolden, Forston, Francis, and Zusevics were all picked by the draft gurus to be drafted in the mid to final rounds. They were not picked due to medical or other concerns
in college. I hope the Patriots are equally agressive in pursuing UDFAs
this year.

due to medical

John Boyett
Kapron Lewis-Moore
Jake Knott


Yes please!