Pats favored by 9.5 over Jets... how can this be?

[NinjaZX6R]

Jets just announced LB Brian Thomas out for the season.

Heard that. He is their best run defending pass covering 34OLB. Huge loss. Maybin sucks at the run and covering anyone.

 

[Sean Pa Patriot]

if i was betting.. i would be the jets... it probably will be down to 7 by game time...

 

[JetsfaninPeace]

Pats have opened as 9.5 point favorites at-home against the Jets next Sunday. This has to be one of the most surprising point spreads I have seen; this is basically the same spread as the playoff game last year. I would have thought this spread would be around 4-6 before Mayo went down, and likely 2.5-3.5 after.

The Jets have beaten us 3 out of the last 5, including at Foxboro last year, and they are certainly the more desperate team here. I think the Pats will eke one out, but a spread of 9.5 is Vegas saying they don't expect the game to be competitive.

I guess we can never use the "disrespect card" to our advantage for as long as Brady is still here.

You deserve to be 9.5 favorites as far as I'm concerned. Have you seen our offense play?

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

Yeah favored a bit too much..they are going to win by 13 on sunday however

 

[Ring 6]

I would take those points TODAY

The line by gametime might be low as 3 1/2

There is no chance of that

 

[BradyFTW!]

if i was betting.. i would be the jets... it probably will be down to 7 by game time...

Why would you take this bet? I'll make that bet with you, and I'll even give you odds...

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

I would take those points TODAY

The line by gametime might be low as 3 1/2

Yeah it's going to drop nowhere near 3....


MAYBE 7..but that's a big maybe

 

[BradyFTW!]

Yeah it's going to drop nowhere near 3....


MAYBE 7..but that's a big maybe

7 is pretty much the maximum possible, agreed- that's around where I'd expect it to go if reports come out that Mangold will play. No more though, lines don't move past key points without a very good reason.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

7 is pretty much the maximum possible, agreed- that's around where I'd expect it to go if reports come out that Mangold will play. No more though, lines don't move past key points without a very good reason.

A line won't move from 9 to 3 unless a guy puts 25 mill on the game


Mangold will play. Almost did last night..but that O still blows

 

[Luke Skywelker]

The piece of this game that has me wondering how it will play out - Jets biggest issue thus far - offensive line. Thing there - Pats are probably the last team in the NFL to be able to take advantage of it. Wash.

 

[BradyFTW!]

A line won't move from 9 to 3 unless a guy puts 25 mill on the game


Mangold will play. Almost did last night..but that O still blows

Even then it wouldn't. Put the line down at 3 and everyone who took the Jets at +9 will go and take the Pats at -3. They'd have a very high chance of winning both bets (possibly over 30%, if I remember my point percentages), and virtually no risk. The guy who drove the line to -3 would immediately go and put another $25 million on the Pats at the new line, and he'd be risking only the $5 million vig on his total bet for a high-percentage chance to make $45 million (assuming -110 on both bets). Statistically, middling becomes a good bet pretty much the moment that a key point gets introduced. If all that it took was a lot of capital to create a middle with multiple key points, then pretty much every sports book out there would be out of business.

Sports books almost never expose themselves to a middle across multiple key points; it just doesn't happen. Even a single key point on a middle is rare, and it's usually a shift from 2.5 to 3.5 points or something like that. That's why you see games get removed from the board entirely when something happens that would impact the spread to such a degree. That's also why, to get a great middle, you usually have to exploit different lines across multiple books.

On a kinda-related side note, for week 3 Bodog had the Pats at -9 over the Bills, and 5Dimes had them at -5.5. Lotsa people laid tons of money on the Pats at -5.5 and the Bills at +9, hoping for a 6 or 7 point Pats victory. Didn't happen, obviously, but that was incredibly rare, and only happened because it was across multiple books, so neither was abnormally exposed.

 

[juny]

You deserve to be 9.5 favorites as far as I'm concerned. Have you seen our offense play?

Have you seen our defense? 9.5 seems a little high. Of course, i would love to see another 45-3 beating.

 

[Wolfpack]

Did you guys watch the game last night? Aside from some flukey plays (return TD and INT-return TD), the Jets were flat-out manhandled.

If you take away the flukey plays from last night the final score would probably have been 10-3.

 

[Wolfpack]

A line won't move from 9 to 3 unless a guy puts 25 mill on the game


Mangold will play. Almost did last night..but that O still blows

The only reason a line would move so significantly would be if a significant injury to a key player came in from out of nowhere. The status of Mangold will not significantly impact the line. If he was considered a key player, they wouldn't have open betting on the game yet.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

The only reason a line would move so significantly would be if a significant injury to a key player came in from out of nowhere. The status of Mangold will not significantly impact the line. If he was considered a key player, they wouldn't have open betting on the game yet.

correct me if ia m wrong..but lines only are made due to what bets are being placed..which is why that one guy on that 60 min special can move a football line .5 just due to how much money he bets

 

[BradyFTW!]

correct me if ia m wrong..but lines only are made due to what bets are being placed..which is why that one guy on that 60 min special can move a football line .5 just due to how much money he bets

That's one factor, but it's definitely not the only one.

 

[Betterthanmost]

This is so tempting. Can be a win win situation for a Pats fan here. Bet heavy on the jets.
In this case, you can enjoy a bit regardless of the results.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

This is so tempting. Can be a win win situation for a Pats fan here. Bet heavy on the jets.
In this case, you can enjoy a bit regardless of the results.

I bet this past weekend on the Pats-Raiders..won


Won't bet this week. I always take the pats..but nervous at them giving 9 even though i think they will win by more than that

 

[Patjew]

Line should be 95.0.

Jets ******* suck.

 

[harrylime70]

This is going to be a dogfight in my opinion. Remember, it's never as good as it looks and never as bad as it looks, that's the situation right now with the Jets. From week to week you can look like a completely different football team. They'll also be getting arguably the MVP of their offense Nick Mangold back.

A lot of it has to do with matchups. The Jets match up well with NE just in the fact that the Pats are a passing team and the Jets have the best CB in the league that shuts down a large portion of the field. NE will have to run the ball very effectively like how they did in Oakland, play a ball possession game, and stay fundamentally sound. NE's weak vs the pass, and unfortunately the Jets have a plethora of talented receiving options. I'm expecting a tough, entertaining game. This is a good early season measuring stick game, I believe.

A sensible post that is realistic.. They match up well to us and we are going to have to bring our A game. We all thought we would beat them in the playoffs after our 45-3 demolition but this is football and it is never predictable. We deserve to be favorites, but this will not be easy. Hope I'm wrong and we destroy them and put another dent in their "Superbowl" season