If the Pats win the turnover battle and can force a few punts, they'll win the game. If not, it'll be a very frustrating game to watch because Baltimore will constantly convert third downs on this defense. I no longer hope for three and outs from this Pats defense, I hope for mistakes by the opposing offense. I think Flacco can be baited, but if Baltimore's gashing the Pats for 125 yards in the first half baiting the QB won't matter.
Baltimore's giving up 101 yards a game on the ground. If the Pats can get to that number they have a fantastic shot at winning. I remember back in 03, the Pats rush offense wasn't that great, but Weis or Belichick, can't remember which one, said sometimes a good running game isn't solely based on yards, but on ATTEMPTS.
If they can pick up positive yards running the ball on first down then the THREAT of the run will be there. If we see Green Ellis, Taylor, Morris, or whoever constantly getting negative yardage or no gain and leaving the Pats in 2nd and 10 or 3rd and 9 (because we know how the Pats have always LOVED to run after and incomplete pass on first down) it'll be a long, long game.