4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here [merged 10x]

[Deus Irae]

Re: 4th and 2 on your own 30 yard line... and you go for it?

Do you trust them? I sure as hell don't. But, then again, I wouldn't trust the 85 bears D to stop him in that building, in the 2 minute drill. It's just not going to happen. You either (a) have to blow them out (which ain't going to happen) or (b) manage the clock so that you have the ball last. He tried to make (b) happen but Faulk ran a crappy route and Brady made a crappy decision (and we got a bad spot, but you can't cut the route that close).

1.) They know the challenge rules, and they knew that the entire game could come down to a measurement. Once Brady had to burn that timeout, any thought of going for it on 4th down should have been ignored.

2.) If they were going to go for it on 4th down at that point, they should have run the ball on 3rd down. That incompletion, instead of something as simple as a Brady sneak, changed everything.

 

[luisrha]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

I wrote an article about this call. Right now it's only in Spanish and I'm too tired to translate it (if somebody does it thanks in advance), but I'll try to do it tomorrow.

Belichick lost being Belichick

In a league in which most head coaches are too conservative and avoid any big risk, the coach with the hoodie always play for the victory, even if it doesn't always work as he expects. Belichick lost being Belichick.

 

[JoeShmoe]

Re: 4th and 2 on your own 30 yard line... and you go for it?

1.) If they were going to go for it on 4th down at that point, they should have run the ball on 3rd down. That incompletion, instead of something as simple as a Brady sneak, changed everything.

This is the worst mistake IMO. You are where you are with timeouts but 3rd and 2 defending a lead and a tired defense, you pound it. Get Faulk in there or two Brady sneaks

We really, really missed Taylor and Morris tonight

 

[SeauOUCH]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

I haven't read any posts in this thread but I cant sleep & feel ill so I just wanted to say WHY THE **** DIDN'T THEY RUN THE BALL on 3rd down????

QB sneak on 3rd down should of been the call if you knew you were going to go for it on 4th down regardless.

I still say we got robbed, Faulk was over the 30 when he had possession, ugh.

I have zero problem with BB going for it on 4th down, I had way more faith in the offence picking up 2 then the D that had been getting shredded in the 4th Q making a stop.

 

[MrNathanDrake]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

I agree with going for it- I just don't agree with the calls on 3rd and 2 and 4th and 2. If you can't move the ball 2 yards in 2 downs, pack up and go home for the season. Run the ball FFS

Agree 100%

Although it looked like a terrible spot the Ref gave Faulk on that last catch. He was BEHIND him, how would he know when he actually had possession of the ball. *shaking my head*

The pass interference on the Colts 2nd last drive looked terrible too. I need to see a replay of that but it seems like Colts always get gift PI calls in crucial times in games.

 

[JoeShmoe]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

I haven't read any posts in this thread but I cant sleep & feel ill so I just wanted to say WHY THE **** DIDN'T THEY RUN THE BALL on 3rd down????

If nothing else, its also eating clock

If Taylor/Morris is there we run that ball. Despite what me might say BB has no confidence in Maroney when it matters. Also 3rd and two why not use one of the TE's if youre going to throw?

 

[italian pat patriot]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

personally i would have not playied it - i admit i would have made a punt

 

[letekro]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

If nothing else, its also eating clock

Despite what me might say BB has no confidence in Maroney when it matters.

Hard to argue with this. With Taylor and Morris out it seems the only short yardage running play we'll use is the sneak.

 

[Deus Irae]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

Hard to argue with this. With Taylor and Morris out it seems the only short yardage running play we'll use is the sneak.

Maroney picked up a 2nd and 1 and a 3rd and 1.

 

[letekro]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

Maroney picked up a 2nd and 1 and a 3rd and 1.

That's great. The point is, in the most critical of moments, they're just as happy to be in 5 wide than give him the ball to get a yard.

 

[Satchboogie3]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

If nothing else, its also eating clock

If Taylor/Morris is there we run that ball. Despite what me might say BB has no confidence in Maroney when it matters. Also 3rd and two why not use one of the TE's if youre going to throw?

I still think part of Maroney's lack of success comes from his use. 90% of the time he is out there in the shotgun and it's either going to be run or a play fake. Have him on the field more often, in different formations (more power formations would be great...) and utilize him better in the offense. It seems like half the time he gets handed the ball, the defense is already collapsing in on him and he has no where to go.

Not having Morris and Taylor hurts. If we had either of them today, I think we win this game easy.

 

[Deus Irae]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

That's great. The point is, in the most critical of moments, they're just as happy to be in 5 wide than give him the ball to get a yard.

They'd rather be in 5 wide than give a Jim Brown in his prime the ball at this point. It's a sad commentary on how much of a neglected stepchild this team's running game has become.

 

[vyrago]

Re: 4th and 2 on your own 30 yard line... and you go for it?

No doubt in my mind he got it, he hadn't been pushed back when he made the oh so brief bobble. I guess there's a reason (Butler says HI too) that home teams win almost every time with that reffing crew.

If the situation had been reversed and it was the Colts going for it on 4th and 2, where do you think forward progress would have been marked?
First down. In fact had the game been played in Fxbro, it probably would have been a first down.

 

[vyrago]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

I completely agree. We have one of the greatest offenses ever. If we can't get two yards we just have to tip our hats to them. And say we'll see you back here in January!!!

When, Hopefully, we have Taylor and Morris back.

This was one of those coulda, woulda, shoulda games that kept me awake for a while. I keep seeing Faulk's forward progress past the first down marker--because it was.

 

[DarrylS]

Defending Belichick...

From a NYT story...

Defending Belichick’s Fourth-Down Decision - The Fifth Down Blog - NYTimes.com

With 2:08 left and the Colts with only one timeout, a successful 4th-and-2 conversion wins the game for all practical purposes. A conversion on 4th-and-2 would be successful 60 percent of the time. Historically, in a situation with 2:00 left and needing a TD to either win or tie, teams get the TD 53 percent of the time from that field position. The total win probability for the 4th-down conversion attempt would therefore be:

(0.60 * 1) + (0.40 * (1-0.53)) = 0.79 WP (WP stands for win probability)

A punt from the 28 typically nets 38 yards, starting the Colts at their 34. Teams historically get the TD 30 percent of the time in that situation. So the punt gives the Pats about a 0.70 WP.

 

[ivanvamp]

Re: 4th and 2 on your own 30 yard line... and you go for it?

If the situation had been reversed and it was the Colts going for it on 4th and 2, where do you think forward progress would have been marked?
First down. In fact had the game been played in Fxbro, it probably would have been a first down.

I know we've discussed the time out situation ad nauseum already, but think about it. If that play (which came at 2:08) happened nine seconds later, there's *no* question that it gets overruled and the Pats have a first down. That's because it would have happened under the 2-minute warning, making it an automatic review.

You could look at it this way: the Colts were 9 seconds lucky last night.

 

[ivanvamp]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

Hard to argue with this. With Taylor and Morris out it seems the only short yardage running play we'll use is the sneak.

That's fine. Sometimes Brady gets 2 yards on a sneak. Run it on 3rd down, and at the very least, make *Indy* use a time-out there. It allows you to still talk the 4th down play over, on their dime, so to speak, and it reserves you a time-out just in case, oh, you know, you might need it to challenge a spot or a turnover or something.

I think Brady probably picks up one yard, the Colts call a time-out, and the Pats have 4th and 1 with about 2:03 left on the clock, with 1 time-out still available. Changes the situation somewhat dramatically, b/c 4th and 1 is a running down, so it keeps more options in play for the Colts' defense to worry about, but with this offense, 4th and 2 is definitely a passing down.

The Pats botched this on 3rd down, not on 4th down (when they actually converted, of course, despite what the ref, who couldn't actually see the play, said).

 

[PatsFanInVa]

Re: Defending Belichick...

Then we should really see a lot more 4th and 2 "go for it" calls in similar circumstances unless -- here's the tricky part -- something's wrong with the mathmatical monitoring. Ow, my head hurts this a.m., and my heart's not much better off.

 

[Satchboogie3]

Re: Defending Belichick...

Honestly, as some other have pointed out, this was just one of many "iffy" calls in the last 5 minutes of the game. I still consider Belichick a genius, but he HAS to do a better job with closing out teams. He needs to change his defensive and offensive philosophy because it isn't work right now. We need more pressure and aggressiveness on defense while using more "high-percentage" plays on offense and run the ball/milk the clock more effectively. If we can do that, this team will be complete.

 

[Patters]

Re: Defending Belichick...

I thought that call was strange and risky, but my bigger complaint was that the Pats completely failed to adjust their D when the Colts went on the attack. We kept playing bend but don't break, even though kept on breaking.