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Would like to use this thread to specifically talk QB's. What they bring to table, how they would fit here. What type of things would need to happen to help them achieve success/their full potential.
Every scouting report is a little different bc every prospect is a different. Playing with different players, against different players, with different coaches. So theres not really a uniform way for me. I just try to focus on what I see in high leverage situations and work from there to be honest.
Jonathan James McCarthy
21 yo / 1 - 20 - 03 from La Grange, IL
Mom was a figure skater which probably had something to do with him playing hockey as well. Supposedly he was a very good young prospect. Very tight with his family and faith. 5* recruit. Has dated his gf, Katya Kuropas, since hs. I believe they are still engaged.
High School and College records
26 - 3 Nazareth
8 - 0 IMG AC (big jump in development)
27 - 1 UM
61/3
One of the few clear leaders on that team. If he was eligible he would have been team captain from almost day one. Loves the game, competition. Isn't afraid of hard work, seems comes natural. Not as a chore.
If you're drafting a QB this high, any round really, with the intention of "franchise guy." You want them to be the hardest worker in the room.
McCarthy took a big step in terms of his progressions, timing, anticipation and field vision this past year/off-season. Occasional plays where he'll look like a 20 yo (pocket presence or accountability can be a little messy) but he's been nothing but steady, more than solid and poised in some of the biggest games/situations in his young career. IQ has to improve but it's solid in context. Again mostly deciphering coverage and variations it'll spill into post/snap. He's displayed the smarts, subtleties and nuances you want to see at this stage but does have a long way to go in certain areas.
There's a decent difference in his dropbacks however. Short, intermediate vs deep stuff. He was compact, decisive with clean mechanics with stuff about 30 yards in (mesh, the deep in off Yankee, dagger, sail, slants. Things came out very quickly. On time with accuracy anticipation and velocity. We've see so many of the throws and take a look at a few below. The deep shots arent quite as clean in terms of marrying those drop backs with his mechanics. Occasionally you'll see his upper half/release become inconsistent but his footwork is also lacking at times on deep stuff. He does a very good job keeping his feet firing but base can be little inconsistent when moved off his spot and firing deep or quick. Or climbing up the pocket. The experience/attempts aren't there so it's not a huge surprise.
*First play is something UM ran a lot. Motion to flat with a (#1)sail route. Motion/flat to pull a defender but it doesn't quite work to full effect so McCarthy uses a pump fake to draw a defender down. Far hash throw with plenty of gas to where only his man can really make a play. You see this a lot throughout his film. Quick little fakes to move defenders.
Second play same as the first. Motion with sail. Far hash to sideline with plenty of gas and anticipation. JJM likely knows where this going and is committed but he throws this while his guy isn't out of break/even looking yet. Again plenty of gas.
Third play might look routine enough but it's quite impressive imo. Disguised pressure looks like delayed creeper blitz from the second level. Lineman dropping in coverage. Looks off 18 moves a LB to hit 1.
Fourth play is big boy stuff too imo. You know pressure is coming even though you're well prepared to counter it. Still rush is in his face. Impressive ability to manipulate this pocket by shuffling. Eyes down field whole time, running a dagger concept.
Fifth play is yankee concept. Just throws a rope to his man. Balls out extremely quick with no hesitation or hitch.
Last play is something you need in today's game. Ability to move, extend or create and make a play. His head is up you can see his eyes move from target to target.*
One of, if not the best anticipatory MOF passer in the class along with Maye (big names) Passes with plus anticipation and confidence there. Manipulates mof defenders to buy some room or time. Whether he's on the move outside the pocket, in the pocket, someone in his face. He's very comfortable with these routes/concepts. Lets it rip whether its an underneath crosser off mesh variations, slants, seam or others
like we saw above. He's thrown some beauties between, over defenders.Very aggressive here, attacks and does have the ability to layer a ball between defenders to where only his guy can get it. Doesnt have a ton of picthes but hes more than a one speed passer (Baker, Murray) Excellent in PA, RPO/selling something to the defense.
Occasionally will stare down his first read or target. Usually the ball is coming out hot with great placement but it's something he has to clean up. Especially against guys that have been doing this a lot longer than him.
Arm isn't going to be confused with Mahomes or Allen but he generates easy gas off quick releases from various angles and release slots. Above average velocity and touch. Strength could improve some but well pass the threshold. Placement and accuracy need to improve as well on the deep stuff. Displayed some top tier qualities (accuracy, ability to layer passes) under real pressure or on the move. Both physical (250-300+ athletes chasing him) and mental (big games multiple OSU, UG etc) Has completed 70% 1700 + yards 7 TD/3 INT when blitzed over the last two years.
Very good "on the move" very agile, mobile and athletic. 6'3 205 plenty of room for his big boy weight that'll be arriving in the next few years. He's able to scramble and shake off arm tackles or weak attempts. He'll run sub 4.6 and with some added muscle and the right calls. Hell be a threat on a few designed runs a game. Nothing major but i wouldn't hesitate to call 2-3 specific ones for him. His pocket presence is a bright spot imo. Not sure what others see there but he's very heady, eyes are always down field. Footwork can definitely improve but hes usually moving, shuffling, trying to create. I've seen him ID, alert pressure. He does try to do too much at times back there but there's not many negatives in this area. His comp% when scrambling is quite impressive compared to the rest of the class. JMM 71.4 Nix 58.6 Daniels 46.7 Williams 41.8 Maye 36.8 Penix 23.3 That's quite that gap.
The volume isn't there but there's no doubting his ability to step up in big games against big schools. The game, moment, never looked "too big" he's the definition of a "gamer." Went toe to toe and outplayed a lot of very good QB's like CJ Stroud. Big games and moments aren't really a thing anymore when you've lost 3 times in like 6-7 years.
Deciphering 3rd level coverage rotations, peelbacks and at times second level disguise can give him trouble. So much of this is experience, real time reps.
Don't see many "hospital" balls knows how to lead and where to steer his targets. Whether it's simply leading away from coverage or throwing low to avoid a head shot. Kind of speaks to and falls in the anticipation department but worth noting after the last few years.
Good possibility he won't have a top 50 target drafted this year despite Wilson being a player. Easily the worst group of targets among the big names ...
LSU - Nabers, Thomas, Lacy, Aiyuk (briefly at ASU)
WASH - Odunze, Polk, McMillan
USC - Addison, Washington, Marvin Mims
UNC - Walker, Green, Downs
*Early Declare QBs who started multiple years ranked by Career EPA per play*
1. Tua Tagovailoa - 0.463
2. CJ Stroud - 0.373
3. Justin Fields - 0.298
4. CALEB WILLIAMS - 0.240
5. Patrick Mahomes - 0.223
6. JJ MCCARTHY - 0.223
7. DRAKE MAYE - 0.159
8. Lamar Jackson - 0.079
From PFF 5th Wins above replacement
90 + % under pressure 90 + % 3rd & 4th down
Outside the pocket 76% Positively grade throws 86%
How was he on "money downs" , "high leverage", "pressure" plays. 3rd & long, 3rd & 4th, pressure, top defenses ...
vs 7 top 20 defenses (SP +)
70% 7 TD 1 INT 1RUSH TD
vs 10 top 50 defenses
70% 8.2 YA 1733 yards 12 TD 1 INT 3 RUSH TD
From Fanduel/Jim Sannes
Avg Opp. Def Rank PA ATT V Top 50 D
JJ McCarthy 38.8 63.3%
Jayden Daniels 46.7 56.3%
Michael Penix 57.3 55.9%
Drake Maye. 61.0 44.7%
Caleb Williams 64.6 53.4%
Bo Nix 79.2 41.1%
"That average defensive ranking will be the seventh-toughest for any FBS quarterback drafted since 2010 once McCarthy gets the call."
On 3rd and 6+
% of att AY/A Sack Rate
JJ McCarthy 17.8% 13.1 9.7%
Bo Nix. 11.5% 11.9 1.8%
Jayden Daniels 10.7% 10.7 12.5%
Drake Maye 14.1% 8.8 11.8%
Caleb Williams 13.1% 8.2 15.0%
Michael Penix. 12.1% 6.4 6.2%
That 13.1 AY/A easily led this class and is the third-best mark for any quarterback prospect since 2010, trailing just Tua Tagovailoa and Kyler Murray. McCarthy's (relatively) lower AY/A is also excusable given 17.8% of his pass attempts came in these obvious passing situations."
Scramble rate on non-pressured dropbacks (college career)
Jayden Daniels: 9.4%
Justin Fields: 8.0%
Drake Maye: 7.0%
Will Levis: 4.4%
Bryce Young: 4.0%
Brock Purdy: 3.8%
Bo Nix: 3.5%
JJ McCarthy: 3.0%
Caleb Williams: 3.0%
CJ Stroud: 2.1%
ADot compared to last year's class and this one
Young: 10.0
CJ Stroud: 10.7
Anthony Richardson: 11.5
Will Levis: 8.6
Hendon Hooker 11.7
Caleb Williams: 9.2
Drake Maye: 11.0
Jayden Daniels: 10.5
JJ McCarthy: 9.8
Michael Penix: 10.7
Great doc for QB's
docs.google.com
View attachment 56583
Well ahead the pack here
View attachment 56581
This one is interesting bc when you filter this info down to "dropback passes only" McCarthy comes out ahead 30.1% on target percentage followed by Michael Penix Jr (29.3%) and Caleb Williams (28.9%). Daniels’ percentage is only 23.4% and Nix’s is even lower (19.4%).
(first one below is 5 + yards to go)
View attachment 56584
I think he would be a great fit here. Just by going off initial opinions of AVP and watching some of his offenses. I think McCarthy is someone who he could really utilize to get the most out of his system.
A) AVP loved generating explosive plays from the run game.
B)Big-time PA, Browns were top 7 I believe in PA %.
C)Browns used a lot of bootlegs to play off their OZ rush attack. You can really hurt teams on the backside here.
D)save critical passes, traditional drop backs for 3rd down. Max protect if need be.
E)A lot of Dagger of PA, Mesh, hi/lows (motion to flat / sail)
F)someone who can create when things breakdown
I could go on but the similarities are there all over the place. In today's game you need to be able to throw on the run, handle and adapt to pressure, come through on 3rd down, create when pressure is highest.
Per PFF Big Time Throws Off PA
Michael Penix Jr (#2 in football) - 18
Drake Maye - 7
J.J. McCarthy - 7
Caleb Williams - 6
Jayden Daniels - 5
Bo Nix - 5
Spencer Rattler - 3
Simply put McCarthy is a killer in so many areas that AVP values. Off-script, 3rd down, bootlegs, PA. The only thing that doesn't quite come together is the fact that AVP really needs a big arm QB to attack vertically selectively. McCarthy's low volume, inconsistencies reading the 3rd level could lead to some hesitancy but he checks every other box on & off the field. Teams that dig into analytics will love McCarthy.
Every scouting report is a little different bc every prospect is a different. Playing with different players, against different players, with different coaches. So theres not really a uniform way for me. I just try to focus on what I see in high leverage situations and work from there to be honest.
Jonathan James McCarthy
21 yo / 1 - 20 - 03 from La Grange, IL
Mom was a figure skater which probably had something to do with him playing hockey as well. Supposedly he was a very good young prospect. Very tight with his family and faith. 5* recruit. Has dated his gf, Katya Kuropas, since hs. I believe they are still engaged.
High School and College records
26 - 3 Nazareth
8 - 0 IMG AC (big jump in development)
27 - 1 UM
61/3
One of the few clear leaders on that team. If he was eligible he would have been team captain from almost day one. Loves the game, competition. Isn't afraid of hard work, seems comes natural. Not as a chore.
If you're drafting a QB this high, any round really, with the intention of "franchise guy." You want them to be the hardest worker in the room.
McCarthy took a big step in terms of his progressions, timing, anticipation and field vision this past year/off-season. Occasional plays where he'll look like a 20 yo (pocket presence or accountability can be a little messy) but he's been nothing but steady, more than solid and poised in some of the biggest games/situations in his young career. IQ has to improve but it's solid in context. Again mostly deciphering coverage and variations it'll spill into post/snap. He's displayed the smarts, subtleties and nuances you want to see at this stage but does have a long way to go in certain areas.
There's a decent difference in his dropbacks however. Short, intermediate vs deep stuff. He was compact, decisive with clean mechanics with stuff about 30 yards in (mesh, the deep in off Yankee, dagger, sail, slants. Things came out very quickly. On time with accuracy anticipation and velocity. We've see so many of the throws and take a look at a few below. The deep shots arent quite as clean in terms of marrying those drop backs with his mechanics. Occasionally you'll see his upper half/release become inconsistent but his footwork is also lacking at times on deep stuff. He does a very good job keeping his feet firing but base can be little inconsistent when moved off his spot and firing deep or quick. Or climbing up the pocket. The experience/attempts aren't there so it's not a huge surprise.
*First play is something UM ran a lot. Motion to flat with a (#1)sail route. Motion/flat to pull a defender but it doesn't quite work to full effect so McCarthy uses a pump fake to draw a defender down. Far hash throw with plenty of gas to where only his man can really make a play. You see this a lot throughout his film. Quick little fakes to move defenders.
Second play same as the first. Motion with sail. Far hash to sideline with plenty of gas and anticipation. JJM likely knows where this going and is committed but he throws this while his guy isn't out of break/even looking yet. Again plenty of gas.
Third play might look routine enough but it's quite impressive imo. Disguised pressure looks like delayed creeper blitz from the second level. Lineman dropping in coverage. Looks off 18 moves a LB to hit 1.
Fourth play is big boy stuff too imo. You know pressure is coming even though you're well prepared to counter it. Still rush is in his face. Impressive ability to manipulate this pocket by shuffling. Eyes down field whole time, running a dagger concept.
Fifth play is yankee concept. Just throws a rope to his man. Balls out extremely quick with no hesitation or hitch.
Last play is something you need in today's game. Ability to move, extend or create and make a play. His head is up you can see his eyes move from target to target.*
One of, if not the best anticipatory MOF passer in the class along with Maye (big names) Passes with plus anticipation and confidence there. Manipulates mof defenders to buy some room or time. Whether he's on the move outside the pocket, in the pocket, someone in his face. He's very comfortable with these routes/concepts. Lets it rip whether its an underneath crosser off mesh variations, slants, seam or others
like we saw above. He's thrown some beauties between, over defenders.Very aggressive here, attacks and does have the ability to layer a ball between defenders to where only his guy can get it. Doesnt have a ton of picthes but hes more than a one speed passer (Baker, Murray) Excellent in PA, RPO/selling something to the defense.
Occasionally will stare down his first read or target. Usually the ball is coming out hot with great placement but it's something he has to clean up. Especially against guys that have been doing this a lot longer than him.
Arm isn't going to be confused with Mahomes or Allen but he generates easy gas off quick releases from various angles and release slots. Above average velocity and touch. Strength could improve some but well pass the threshold. Placement and accuracy need to improve as well on the deep stuff. Displayed some top tier qualities (accuracy, ability to layer passes) under real pressure or on the move. Both physical (250-300+ athletes chasing him) and mental (big games multiple OSU, UG etc) Has completed 70% 1700 + yards 7 TD/3 INT when blitzed over the last two years.
Very good "on the move" very agile, mobile and athletic. 6'3 205 plenty of room for his big boy weight that'll be arriving in the next few years. He's able to scramble and shake off arm tackles or weak attempts. He'll run sub 4.6 and with some added muscle and the right calls. Hell be a threat on a few designed runs a game. Nothing major but i wouldn't hesitate to call 2-3 specific ones for him. His pocket presence is a bright spot imo. Not sure what others see there but he's very heady, eyes are always down field. Footwork can definitely improve but hes usually moving, shuffling, trying to create. I've seen him ID, alert pressure. He does try to do too much at times back there but there's not many negatives in this area. His comp% when scrambling is quite impressive compared to the rest of the class. JMM 71.4 Nix 58.6 Daniels 46.7 Williams 41.8 Maye 36.8 Penix 23.3 That's quite that gap.
The volume isn't there but there's no doubting his ability to step up in big games against big schools. The game, moment, never looked "too big" he's the definition of a "gamer." Went toe to toe and outplayed a lot of very good QB's like CJ Stroud. Big games and moments aren't really a thing anymore when you've lost 3 times in like 6-7 years.
Deciphering 3rd level coverage rotations, peelbacks and at times second level disguise can give him trouble. So much of this is experience, real time reps.
Don't see many "hospital" balls knows how to lead and where to steer his targets. Whether it's simply leading away from coverage or throwing low to avoid a head shot. Kind of speaks to and falls in the anticipation department but worth noting after the last few years.
Good possibility he won't have a top 50 target drafted this year despite Wilson being a player. Easily the worst group of targets among the big names ...
LSU - Nabers, Thomas, Lacy, Aiyuk (briefly at ASU)
WASH - Odunze, Polk, McMillan
USC - Addison, Washington, Marvin Mims
UNC - Walker, Green, Downs
*Early Declare QBs who started multiple years ranked by Career EPA per play*
1. Tua Tagovailoa - 0.463
2. CJ Stroud - 0.373
3. Justin Fields - 0.298
4. CALEB WILLIAMS - 0.240
5. Patrick Mahomes - 0.223
6. JJ MCCARTHY - 0.223
7. DRAKE MAYE - 0.159
8. Lamar Jackson - 0.079
From PFF 5th Wins above replacement
90 + % under pressure 90 + % 3rd & 4th down
Outside the pocket 76% Positively grade throws 86%
How was he on "money downs" , "high leverage", "pressure" plays. 3rd & long, 3rd & 4th, pressure, top defenses ...
vs 7 top 20 defenses (SP +)
70% 7 TD 1 INT 1RUSH TD
vs 10 top 50 defenses
70% 8.2 YA 1733 yards 12 TD 1 INT 3 RUSH TD
From Fanduel/Jim Sannes
Avg Opp. Def Rank PA ATT V Top 50 D
JJ McCarthy 38.8 63.3%
Jayden Daniels 46.7 56.3%
Michael Penix 57.3 55.9%
Drake Maye. 61.0 44.7%
Caleb Williams 64.6 53.4%
Bo Nix 79.2 41.1%
"That average defensive ranking will be the seventh-toughest for any FBS quarterback drafted since 2010 once McCarthy gets the call."
On 3rd and 6+
% of att AY/A Sack Rate
JJ McCarthy 17.8% 13.1 9.7%
Bo Nix. 11.5% 11.9 1.8%
Jayden Daniels 10.7% 10.7 12.5%
Drake Maye 14.1% 8.8 11.8%
Caleb Williams 13.1% 8.2 15.0%
Michael Penix. 12.1% 6.4 6.2%
That 13.1 AY/A easily led this class and is the third-best mark for any quarterback prospect since 2010, trailing just Tua Tagovailoa and Kyler Murray. McCarthy's (relatively) lower AY/A is also excusable given 17.8% of his pass attempts came in these obvious passing situations."
Scramble rate on non-pressured dropbacks (college career)
Jayden Daniels: 9.4%
Justin Fields: 8.0%
Drake Maye: 7.0%
Will Levis: 4.4%
Bryce Young: 4.0%
Brock Purdy: 3.8%
Bo Nix: 3.5%
JJ McCarthy: 3.0%
Caleb Williams: 3.0%
CJ Stroud: 2.1%
ADot compared to last year's class and this one
Young: 10.0
CJ Stroud: 10.7
Anthony Richardson: 11.5
Will Levis: 8.6
Hendon Hooker 11.7
Caleb Williams: 9.2
Drake Maye: 11.0
Jayden Daniels: 10.5
JJ McCarthy: 9.8
Michael Penix: 10.7
Great doc for QB's
2024 Draft QBs
Broad Data QB ,Current Age (January),Career Starts,Record,PFF OFF,PFF Pass,PFF Run,NFL PR,QBR Caleb Williams,22.1,33,23-10,90.3,84.6,82.6,117.4,82.3 Drake Maye,21.4,26,17-9,90.6,89.1,73.8,100.2,78.8 Jayden Daniels,23.1,55,37-18,94.7,92,92.4,143.7,95.7 J.J. McCarthy,21,28,27-1,90.6,87.9,78,116.6,...
Well ahead the pack here
View attachment 56581
This one is interesting bc when you filter this info down to "dropback passes only" McCarthy comes out ahead 30.1% on target percentage followed by Michael Penix Jr (29.3%) and Caleb Williams (28.9%). Daniels’ percentage is only 23.4% and Nix’s is even lower (19.4%).
(first one below is 5 + yards to go)
View attachment 56584
I think he would be a great fit here. Just by going off initial opinions of AVP and watching some of his offenses. I think McCarthy is someone who he could really utilize to get the most out of his system.
A) AVP loved generating explosive plays from the run game.
B)Big-time PA, Browns were top 7 I believe in PA %.
C)Browns used a lot of bootlegs to play off their OZ rush attack. You can really hurt teams on the backside here.
D)save critical passes, traditional drop backs for 3rd down. Max protect if need be.
E)A lot of Dagger of PA, Mesh, hi/lows (motion to flat / sail)
F)someone who can create when things breakdown
I could go on but the similarities are there all over the place. In today's game you need to be able to throw on the run, handle and adapt to pressure, come through on 3rd down, create when pressure is highest.
Per PFF Big Time Throws Off PA
Michael Penix Jr (#2 in football) - 18
Drake Maye - 7
J.J. McCarthy - 7
Caleb Williams - 6
Jayden Daniels - 5
Bo Nix - 5
Spencer Rattler - 3
Simply put McCarthy is a killer in so many areas that AVP values. Off-script, 3rd down, bootlegs, PA. The only thing that doesn't quite come together is the fact that AVP really needs a big arm QB to attack vertically selectively. McCarthy's low volume, inconsistencies reading the 3rd level could lead to some hesitancy but he checks every other box on & off the field. Teams that dig into analytics will love McCarthy.
