4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here [merged 10x]

[PatsFan24]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

only one thing the blame this loss on



the curse of the yankees

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

Most coaches would of punted the ball. I still feel the Pats got cheated by the Colts refs again. Faulk caught the ball and got enough for the 1st down. I know what I saw.

That the flag on the PI came in late was disturbing. I also though Faulk slearly had the ball in hand further than the spot. But guess what? Lousy PI calls happen to everyone. And Brady/Faulk should have been 2 yards beyond the first down marker. If you make it that close, you leave it up to the refs. If you leave it to the refs, they might make a bad call. Because of how fast that play happened, a bad spot of a foot or so was not unreasonable. It was up to TB/Faulk to leave no doubt!!! End of friggin story!

 

[maverick4]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

Ultimately, most media (especially local media) doesn't have enough intelligence or imagination to adequately assess risktaking that goes against the common practice.

This last line is bullsh*t.

I've read the papers advocating 4th down. Some are valid, others are ridiculous when you read their assumptions and conclusions.


There is not payoff tree one can make that can make a strong case for going for it on 4th down, from your own 30 or less yard line. There is certainly less of a case to do this against a QB like Manning, who would almost certainly make the penalty 7 points, with that short field.

 

[letekro]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

the NBC people and the local media hated the move, but many of the players I've seen interviewed plus NFL Network (Deon Sanders) agreed with it and respected Belichick for it.

Ultimately, most media (especially local media) doesn't have enough intelligence or imagination to adequately assess risktaking that goes against the common practice.

They don't hate the move, they hate the man that made it. Did you see Bob Costas relishing the moment as he asked Tony Dungy about the call, knowing that Mr. Conservative was going to shoot it down? Did you hear Al Michaels shouting with glee "there it is!!! Bobble Bobble!!!"? Now they will come out of the woodwork to take their shots at him, regardless of whether the call was objectively bad or not. Sad, but this is the price that successful people have to pay.

 

[cmasspatsfan]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

There is not payoff tree one can make that can make a strong case for going for it on 4th down, from your own 30 or less yard line.

There is, did you read this?

Advanced NFL Stats: Belichick's 4th Down Decision vs the Colts

 

[letekro]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

This last line is bullsh*t.

Some are valid, others are ridiculous when you read their assumptions and conclusions.

If some are valid, doesn't mean that there is mathematical justification?

 

[letekro]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

There is, did you read this?

Advanced NFL Stats: Belichick's 4th Down Decision vs the Colts

I don't think he can read.

 

[PatsFan24]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

They don't hate the move, they hate the man that made it. Did you see Bob Costas relishing the moment as he asked Tony Dungy about the call, knowing that Mr. Conservative was going to shoot it down? Did you hear Al Michaels shouting with glee "there it is!!! Bobble Bobble!!!"? Now they will come out of the woodwork to take their shots at him, regardless of whether the call was objectively bad or not. Sad, but this is the price that successful people have to pay.

i usually have the radio broadcast on for the snf games and now i will always have it on. al michaels was cheering for indy the whole game. i thought collinsworth was decent outside of that insane PI call that he somehow agreed with.

 

[maverick4]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

There is, did you read this?

Advanced NFL Stats: Belichick's 4th Down Decision vs the Colts

Your "brilliant" article assumes Manning would score a TD from our 30, only 53% of the time... which no one would agree with.

Their formula claims that the better one thinks Manning is, that you should definitely go for it more... which is also completely bogus. One would feel better about going for it the more you think a QB sucks.

 

[Deus Irae]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

The decision to go for it on 4th down after the play selected on 3rd down and the loss of the timeout, coupled with the time of the game, was, quite possibly, the stupidest on-the-field decision Belichick has made as coach of the Patriots, IMO.

 

[letekro]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

Your "brilliant" article assumes Manning would score a TD from our 30, only 53% of the time... which no one would agree with.

Their formula claims that the better one thinks Manning is, that you should definitely go for it more... which is also completely bogus. One would feel better about going for it the more you think a QB sucks.

You have it completely backwards, but otherwise you're right on! Obviously, if Rex Grossman is across the way, you just punt it and feel confident that he will screw it up somewhere along the 70 yd journey. When you have a great QB on the other side, the going for it option becomes MORE attractive because you have less to gain by punting.

 

[BradyFTW!]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

That the flag on the PI came in late was disturbing. I also though Faulk slearly had the ball in hand further than the spot. But guess what? Lousy PI calls happen to everyone. And Brady/Faulk should have been 2 yards beyond the first down marker. If you make it that close, you leave it up to the refs. If you leave it to the refs, they might make a bad call. Because of how fast that play happened, a bad spot of a foot or so was not unreasonable. It was up to TB/Faulk to leave no doubt!!! End of friggin story!

Not to mention that we should have had a timeout so that we could challenge the spot, but we didn't (for no good reason, wtf is up with calling timeouts at the start of a drive?)

 

[AllstonPatsFan]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

The decision to go for it on 4th down after the play selected on 3rd down and the loss of the timeout, coupled with the time of the game, was, quite possibly, the stupidest on-the-field decision Belichick has made as coach of the Patriots, IMO.

Not sending Gostkowski out there for a 38 yarder in the Giants Super Bowl is worse IMO. Mostly because of the magnitude of the game.

Let's face it. We probably weren't going to catch them for home field with their schedule. This game is very likely to mean very little down the stretch.

 

[BradyFTW!]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

You have it completely backwards, but otherwise you're right on! Obviously, if Rex Grossman is across the way, you just punt it and feel confident that he will screw it up somewhere along the 70 yd journey. When you have a great QB on the other side, the going for it option becomes MORE attractive because you have less to gain by punting.

Exactly. You go for it precisely *because* giving the Colts the ball back is a likely loss whether they have 60 or 30 yards to go. The more likely it is that a QB will get the TD even if you punt, the less desirable a punt is. Is this really that hard to understand?

 

[letekro]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

Not sending Gostkowski out there for a 38 yarder in the Giants Super Bowl is worse IMO. Mostly because of the magnitude of the game.

Let's face it. We probably weren't going to catch them for home field with their schedule. This game is very likely to mean very little down the stretch.

If it was a 38 yarder I would agree with you, but it was a 48 yarder, so I don't.

 

[jcrack]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

yYea peyton was moving the ball very easily towards the end so i know where belichick was coming from..He knows hes gonna get criticized for it but it was quite ballsy. He basically went all in & lost. Looked like faulk has the first down but you aint gonna get that call on the road most of the time.

 

[BradyFTW!]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

Not sending Gostkowski out there for a 38 yarder in the Giants Super Bowl is worse IMO. Mostly because of the magnitude of the game.

Let's face it. We probably weren't going to catch them for home field with their schedule. This game is very likely to mean very little down the stretch.

Our chances of catching a first round bye would be much, much better if we had beaten Indy. As it stands, Cincy now has a better record and Pittsburgh has the conference record tiebreaker

 

[patsfan55]

Re: 4th and 2 on your own 30 yard line... and you go for it?

Mind-boggling, couldn't believe he made that call.

Rodney Harrison in post-game "That was the worst Bill Belichick decision I've ever seen". He (Harrison) looked like he was going to cry.

I got the same feeling watching Harrison, that he was about to cry I mean. Could seriously see him holding back the tears, it was interesting to say the least.

Honestly, it's tough, the colts have made BB act a little different in years past. He never really trusts his d to stop them when we need to.

 

[letekro]

Re: 4th and 2 on your own 30 yard line... and you go for it?

I got the same feeling watching Harrison, that he was about to cry I mean. Could seriously see him holding back the tears, it was interesting to say the least.

Honestly, it's tough, the colts have made BB act a little different in years past. He never really trusts his d to stop them when we need to.

Do you trust them? I sure as hell don't. But, then again, I wouldn't trust the 85 bears D to stop him in that building, in the 2 minute drill. It's just not going to happen. You either (a) have to blow them out (which ain't going to happen) or (b) manage the clock so that you have the ball last. He tried to make (b) happen but Faulk ran a crappy route and Brady made a crappy decision (and we got a bad spot, but you can't cut the route that close).

 

[patsfan55]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

Honestly, I initially hated the decision to go for it, but after giving it a little thought, I actually agree with it 100%.

It comes down to which of the two scenarios you find to be more likely....

A.) Stop the Colts on 4 plays to win the game.

or

B.) Get two yards on one play


I actually like that Belicheck decided to go for it EVEN KNOWING THE FAILED OUTCOME.

I fully believe that punting the ball would still have led to a Manning score.

It just completely sucks that we didn't get the two yards.

Just because it did not work doesn't make it a bad decision though.

I completely agree. We have one of the greatest offenses ever. If we can't get two yards we just have to tip our hats to them. And say we'll see you back here in January!!!