Content Post Words on things I watched, read & heard II

[Kasmir]

Football Outsiders now have the Patriots as a 33% favorite to win the Super Bowl and by far the best team in weighted DVOA.

This quote is also very surprising:

Unfortunately, it's not easy for me to go back and look at every 10-game stretch dating all the way back to 1983. But I can look at the first 10 games of each season. Since 1983, only 16 teams have put up DVOA over 40% over their first 10 games of the season. That's what the Patriots have done over their most recent 10 games. You probably already knew how good the Patriots have been on defense and special teams over the past two months. But notice that the Patriots come out third on offense behind the Buccaneers and Chargers. That includes ranking sixth rushing the ball since Week 4 and -- I swear I am not making this up out of some sense of homer obligation -- first passing the ball since Week 4. With a rookie quarterback! The Patriots have 37.9% passing DVOA since Week 4. Tampa Bay is at 37.6% passing DVOA since Week 4. This will stun you, but the two leaders in net yards per pass since Week 4 are the San Francisco 49ers at 7.7 yards and the Patriots at 7.6 yards. Dallas is third at 7.2 yards.

Just to remind folks, DVOA is purely analytic, i.e. there is zero subjectivity in its assessment. Of course that doesn't mean it's right, but it's an impressive additional endorsement of how well the team is playing.

Patriots Dominate in Weighted DVOA

Tampa Bay has a slight lead overall but the Patriots have taken a dominating lead in our weighted ratings that lower the importance of early-season games. Plus: Houston's very, very bad running game.

www.footballoutsiders.com

 

[Kasmir]

A great pro-Pats riff by (Jets fan) Rich Eisen:

 

[PF_SU]

This quote is also very surprising:

Seeing a comment below providing some context to the high pass DVOA (Patriots being among the leaders in pass plays gaining > 20 yards since week 4) I've used the play finder of Pro Football Reference to check:

Since (and including) week 4, the Patriots rank 31 in total pass plays. They had 309 pass plays during that span in total (so including sacks / interceptions etc). But in terms of yards gained per play they are second behind the 49ers at 7.2 yards per play (the 49ers are 32 in total pass plays, at 293 although they have one game less). Additionally, the Patriots rank #1 in relative 1st downs gained at 40.1%. Furthermore, the Patriots are #4 in total pass plays resulting in again of 20+ yards with 37 (the Rams have had the most in that span - with 39).

Reiterating a bit what you said, one needs to be careful how to interpret those stats and not just take them at face value without any context and run with it, but the Patriots after the slow start have been on an absolute tear pairing a stingy defense with an efficient offense. If it were Brady quarterbacking this team, they'd probably be favoured to win it all. As it stands, the main question going forward for the post-bye stretch run for the #1 seed and a playoff run is whether they can really do it with a rookie QB.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

A great pro-Pats riff by (Jets fan) Rich Eisen:

Great point by Eisen on be coachable. It's so underrated and always goes unsaid. Being coachable, personable, putting your opinion and ego to the side is huge.

What can I do for you as opposed to hey look at everything I can do. Big difference.

 

[The Brandon Five]

Yea I saw some of media and fanboys on Twitter saying all games should be played in a dome. They're so trendy and annoying it's not funny.

Seriously though, many would prefer climate controlled games with Oprah handing out orange slices on the sidelines. Can't wait for the first team to lose but "identify" as a winner.

Pats shut out the Falcons in their home dome. Same team scored 17 against Tampa in the same place.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

McDermott should be embarrassed. Beat up & down off a high school play (G lead) but his defensive run fits were awful. I keeping hearing people say they defended the run and didn't play that bad. We refused to throw the ball and you gave up 5 + per clip. If he doesn't turn this around I'm not sure you can keep this up. It doesn't take 5-10 to build up a team and prove your worth as a coach. LOL back to back QB sneaks.

He's been so terrible.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Frank Wilson is a dog when it comes to recruiting. Kelly is a weirdo for pretending to talk with a southern accent but these are home run hires. Esp Wilson, big get.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Let's run nickel ...

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Let's run nickel ...
View attachment 38492

Dude…wtf

Was this a 3rd and long?

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

I don't believe in playing football in a dome, its meant to be played outdoors in the elements. i'd rather watch it on tv than sit in the stands. Ive been to a couple of games in the old Shaffer stadium and to Fenway park to see the redsox. IMO baseball is more exciting watching it in person, were as football is more of a tv game. Watching baseball in person you can get a real feel for how fast the pitcher throws and the bang bang of a double play. Although when i did go to see the pats in person i was quite aways from the field and it looked like a bunch of tiny figures running around. Maybe if i seats closer to the action, i'd have a different viewpoint. But then again i'd rather sit in my living room and be comfortable than freeze my azz off in the stands. The thing thats attractive to me about watching the game live is the tailgating, that looks like it would be a lot of fun.

Preach!

Growing up, the weather variety is what attracted me so much to the game. Seeing all these different places on television with snow, rain, sun, wind, was the greatest thing. I went to that 1996/97 fog game against the Steelers, and it was awesome.

Really anything that causes variety improves the sport. I used to love basketball, but the 3 point brigade has changed it from a sport where each team has specific strengths to a sport where every team looks the same.

For football, I love great QB play, but I miss those days when teams had real identities. Smash mouth teams playing for field position, teams that could win consistently with their defense, teams built around a star running back, etc. And then all these weather varieties and field conditions.

Last night’s game was the Game of the Year in my book. Awesome to watch.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Let's run nickel ...
View attachment 38492

Not sure. Probably not the best way to attack 9 OL'm though when you absolutely know what's coming. I haven't seen any splits to confirm if it worked or not just jumped out and taking shots at the Bills lol.

Preach!

Growing up, the weather variety is what attracted me so much to the game. Seeing all these different places on television with snow, rain, sun, wind, was the greatest thing. I went to that 1996/97 fog game against the Steelers, and it was awesome.

Really anything that causes variety improves the sport. I used to love basketball, but the 3 point brigade has changed it from a sport where each team has specific strengths to a sport where every team looks the same.

For football, I love great QB play, but I miss those days when teams had real identities. Smash mouth teams playing for field position, teams that could win consistently with their defense, teams built around a star running back, etc. And then all these weather varieties and field conditions.

Last night’s game was the Game of the Year in my book. Awesome to watch.

I don't believe in playing football in a dome, its meant to be played outdoors in the elements. i'd rather watch it on tv than sit in the stands. Ive been to a couple of games in the old Shaffer stadium and to Fenway park to see the redsox. IMO baseball is more exciting watching it in person, were as football is more of a tv game. Watching baseball in person you can get a real feel for how fast the pitcher throws and the bang bang of a double play. Although when i did go to see the pats in person i was quite aways from the field and it looked like a bunch of tiny figures running around. Maybe if i seats closer to the action, i'd have a different viewpoint. But then again i'd rather sit in my living room and be comfortable than freeze my azz off in the stands. The thing thats attractive to me about watching the game live is the tailgating, that looks like it would be a lot of fun.

Weather games are the best and the ones you remember the most imo

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

 

[captain stone]

How can something like that be accurately measured?

 

[SlowGettingUp]

How can something like that be accurately measured?

They have these computerized trackers (maybe with a person assisting them) that can reduce each player to a moving dot on the screen - we see those in action in those replays of big plays showing the paths of the ball and the players. Once you have the player as a dot you can measure acceleration and top speed easily.

 

[n6249c]

How can something like that be accurately measured?

Frame by frame video analysis

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Frame by frame video analysis

Not sure if you're joking but there are people online that do insane **** like this for college prospects.

They have these computerized trackers (maybe with a person assisting them) that can reduce each player to a moving dot on the screen - we see those in action in those replays of big plays showing the paths of the ball and the players. Once you have the player as a dot you can measure acceleration and top speed easily.

I believe it's something like this @captain stone. I know this will take over for 40 times very soon. In game speed, non-manufactured speed > 40.

 

[Mike the Brit]

How can something like that be accurately measured?

Here is a really good article about the company Prozone, which developed a player tracking system for soccer using 8 cameras around the field.

As the article explains, it has been going now for a long time in soccer -- all the big clubs use it (and you find it on the TV analysis). And there is also other tracking software. But, so far as I know, it would be illegal for teams to film NFL games that way (even their own games in their home stadium) and the NFL itself just produces its from-the-endzone and from-above lo-fi All-22. It is really surprising that the U.S. should be so far behind when it comes to IT and it's surely just a matter of time before the NFL catches up.

How data analytics killed the Premier League's long ball game

The story behind the rise of Prozone how it inspired modern football philosophies like gegenpressing and tiki taka

www.wired.co.uk

 

[n6249c]

Frame by frame video analysis

Not sure if you're joking but there are people online that do insane **** like this for college prospects.

not joking, in my high tech world that sort of stuff is trivial and commonplace. People who do not live in the high technology bubbles have no concept of what’s routinely possible these days. DNA sequencing for example. It took three days to sequence the Covid virus. Three days after it was isolated we (the cooperating parts of the human race) had the entire genome! It would be just as easy to automate the frame by frame video analysis of football games to do stuff like measure the acceleration of every player on every play, if somebody wanted to do. Throw enough money at me and tell me when you want it. No joke.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

not joking, in my high tech world that sort of stuff is trivial and commonplace. People who do not live in the high technology bubbles have no concept of what’s routinely possible these days. DNA sequencing for example. It took three days to sequence the Covid virus. Three days after it was isolated we (the cooperating parts of the human race) had the entire genome! It would be just as easy to automate the frame by frame video analysis of football games to do stuff like measure the acceleration of every player on every play, if somebody wanted to do. Throw enough money at me and tell me when you want it. No joke.

I believe you. I barely go on Twitter anymore but there were people on there a few years ago that were just way off on 40 times by a good deal. I'd bet they didn't have a tech background though.

Measuring game speed, peak speed will be the norm very soon over the 40 though. I watched all that stuff and as funny as it sounds some players get too prepared for the combine. Prospects go to camps specifically for that and it messes with them more than it helps in a lot of cases.

Anyway I'm surprised we don't see more of this online by people that know what they're doing. And have a background in this stuff. Nerds love getting in on football nowadays. I'm surprised we haven't seen anyone make a little niche of this. It would be very very cool and useful.