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Words on things I watched, read & heard II

2021 Patriots Season:
Upcoming Opponent:
Next Up: at Jets
Pick Results: NE: 98.3% at NYJ: 1.7%

Sun
Sep 19th

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BaconGrundleCandy

#1 Mac Jones fan
PatsFans.com Supporter
Hello. Let's football everybody! Go Pats!!!

I'm going to use this thread to talk about all things Pats, NFL. I'll definitely be looking at and making OL/DL clips every week since that's my favorite. Pretty much the same as last year. Talk about upcoming games, players, coaching decisions as well as what's going on around the league. I wanted to include more clips but GamePass is absolutely positively horrible. They've been down for over a week and just announced they're down for a few months. Hopefully the start of the season. A lot of jobs depend on it. A lot of people in different countries depend on it to watch the games. Its fun for losers like me. It sux hopefully it's up by Sept.

The day after we drafted Mac I said he was a "Josh" pick and he would beat out Cam in camp. Draft thread I believe, one of them. Everything that has happened since only reinforces those thoughts for me.

I have no idea how much power Josh really has outside of the obvious but it's clear to me Bill signed off on Jones but it was Josh that picked which QB to go after and had the most influence over this pick. We could have gone after Fields. Waited for Mills, Riess suggested we liked him as QB2 but we stayed put and landed Mac. Between the time on road, the time Josh spends in-season with a QB. Bill being closer to the end than beginning. A QB at 15. This was more Josh than Bill in terms of who we went after.

From the jump Mac was being prepped for right after the draft. At mini-camp, looking at different coverages trying to make him think twice where to throw but Jones didn't panic or flinch. He didn't look lost, he took the safe stuff but was calm and collected. Sometimes that's a good thing or the best answer. Fast forward he's communicating between/after plays, controlling tempo/energy. Accurate, putting the ball in the best spot for the WR. Getting the ball out quick, decisive in his actions. Knowing where to go. I've heard he looks the part from a command sense. Doing everything fast isn't easy but is a huge part of mastering any position. Physically and mentally. Being vocal, communicating. He's handling it and looking the part. It was mentioned to me twice by two different people up there that if Mac had a stronger arm this might not be much of a competition at all. That's probably the thing that separates them the most. Mac is quicker, more decisive & accurate along with passing with better placement & more touch. Cam just has him beat with velocity but that can be improved.

Mac shines at practice. The above mentioned combined with consistency matters a lot rn. Right away he looks the part on the field.

While Cam is a leader himself he's also streaky and inconsistent in several areas. Trying to hang onto his last best shot at a starting job. Bill obviously likes Cam, especially at this price. We'll see if he loves Cam and how far his allegiance goes. Cam is full of life, takes responsibility, is a team first guy but his mechanics and inconsistent nature will stand out next to Mac and obviously not in a good way. We haven't seen much but I didn't notice any big changes From what I've seen and heard with that stuff and let's be honest. Cam has been working on his mechanics or something else now for a decade. I love Cam fwiw. I really do. I got behind bully ball last year. One of my favorites ever in college, had a 1st round grade on him but his better days are behind him now imo. And so far I've heard he looks almost exactly the same. It's day two but I've been watching Cam for over a decade and trust the two people that are nice enough to share what they see with me.

His best chance is truly taking control of the offense since its year two. Being in command, start directing and being more aware pre-snap - rec blitz, rec what's in front of him & moving our guys etc .. Limit the errant/TO worthy passes. Show off his arm in a good way. Displaying he can touch any area of the field with proper velocity. It's also year two so he should be head & shoulders above Mac. Should be.

We'll see what happens but I really believe Mac will stand out, pull away very late and be the BEST QB on the team in a few weeks, in almost everyone's eyes to win the job. We'll see what happens and how Bill decides.

If Cam puts it together in year two I'll be a happy but there's nothing wrong with pulling for the 15th overall pick. He's supposed to be the future. Either way I'll be pulling for both to play their best. Nothing but good things can come of that.

It looks like both had a good day yesterday but Mac made some passes that stood out. Was more accurate, had better placement. Put the ball in front of his targets. Cam was up & down. Both had a few drops but Mac looked a little better all things considering. Quicker, more decisive. From everything I've read and heard today it was pretty even for the most part but Cam had a better day overall. I heard both days Mac looks like he's doing things we've done before. A lot faster from snap to pass, knows where he's going and even if he makes a mistake he's confident and quick in his actions but demonstrative in showing displeasure.

Last year around this time I & others were concerned about the RT spot. Bill went out and brought Trent Brown back! We lose Thuney. Onwenu steps up in a huge way and is a perfect fit to slide in at guard. Shaq is an absolute beast and Andrews is a very good C. I won't speak to the depth rn but our starting 5 is nasty! We have mauling potential, serious potential with a little luck in the health department. Both Wynn, Brown & Andrews have missed time recently. Stay healthy and we're killing teams on the ground, simple as that. I'm not even sure most know how good this group could be but in case you didn't know we have 3 top 10-12 run blockers in Wynn, Onwenu and Shaq coming back.

Some clips of Wynn facing an array of rushers. Finesse, speed, crafty, power rushers in ... Robert Quinn (HOF), Yannick Ngnkoue, Michael Bennett, Frank Clark, Carl Lawson ... His hands and strikes are very quick, accurate and effective. His feints are effective and improved. Great feel on his drag hand (3rd eye). Plus grip strength. His footwork might be better. His positioning is almost always balanced and ready to strike/move, dangerous from different sets letting him handle a variety of different rushers. Great anchor / hop and core strength to handle power.
Hes a great run blocker as well. So far better than pass pro. Top 10 by PFF last year even though they suck. Tape backs it up though. Look at some of the movement he gets himself with Thuney. Shoulder to shoulder, hip to hip, step for step. Now imagine him and Onwenu on the left side moving people down the field. Yeah that's why Onwenu is there. That side is going to be nasty. They're going to swamp guys on combos. Wynn is also very good and getting better in space. His quicks and footwork stand out climbing to the 2nd level. Efficient angles.






If Meyers, Bourne and Agholor continue to hit their trajectory, back to back good years and keep progressing we have a pretty complete group. A few tough WR's that get open, catch and block. Slot, outside, they have a little versatility. No world beaters. Sure we could use a little more help but this ain't a bad group at all. I'm curious about the slot. Typically we've had a reliable, known option. I wouldn't be surprised to see a bit of a revolving door and that could be a very good thing in terms of matchups. White, Bourne, Meyers, Smith, Henry can all contribute right away and can be effective from the slot. Could be a game by game basis depending on personnel. I'm sure Bourne & Meyers get the majority but remember Agholor can contribute as well. Remember even though we'll feature our TE a lot the position gained almost 3k in two years while we were running it with Welker in there. I would think Agholor would mainly be X/Z. Bourne & Meyers bounce from X/Slot.

The TE group might be the most improved group in the league. We go from about 7 rec from the entire position to having two top 10 guys in our room that can do a lot. Asiasi & Keene can breathe a little and don't have as much pressure on them. I'm still excited for both, mainly Asiasi. He came into the league more complete. Last year was an absolute sh¡tshow all-around. Judging rookie TE's, a position that almost never makes an impact as a rookie under those conditions isn't smart or fair.

Potentially we have a very deep RB group. Been watching a lot of Harris and his game is exactly like his scouting report reads. Excellent vision. His ability to press the line/set up a hole, set up 2nd level defenders. Lateral ability. Stand out when compared to Michel. Both are physically capable when it comes to setting the tone, carrying the load but Harris's vision, patience and ability to bounce outside is something we haven't had from a feature in a while. I'm hoping we keep Sony unless its for a 3rd, maybe 4th but his worth here as a RB2, potential RB1 with injury is too valuable imo. Both are solid in pass pro. I want to keep him. Give me the best possible groups. Add in White, JJ and this could be a nice group. One thing to watch for is if Stevenson can really crave out a role on ST. Show he can handle 150 carries. If he can it'll make things more interesting regarding cuts. Not a good start so we'll see there. He needs to really make an impact with the bodies in front of him bc we know how Bill feels about rookies and ST.

Are Bill/Josh zigging while the rest of the league still zags?

So it's pretty obvious we're going to be running a ton of 12 personnel (1 RB, 2TE) - little tip when looking at "personnel" just count the RB & TE's. So this particular grouping hasn't been that popular and has been dwindling down in terms of usage - teams aren't prepared to counter it, esp not all game. It can also be somewhat predictable bc of who's on the field and a lack of creativity. Think about it, a heavy run blocking grouping usually won't have many options to pass out of (Hou led the league last year I believe?). You need guys that can do more than one thing and do them really well. Despite the emergence and influx of athletes at the position it's tough to stay on the field and handle all responsibilities. You can block but can you get open and catch? Again it's a tough position to learn and master.

From Warren Sharp ...
"Instead of teams embracing heavy personnel packages to run the ball, they should start to use those heavier personnel packages to gain an advantage through the air, especially with 12 personnel (one running back, two tight ends, and two wide receivers).

12 personnel usage dropped drastically league-wide in 2018. Teams used that package on 24 percent of plays in 2016, then on 25 percent of plays in 2017 but that dropped to just 16 percent last year. As most teams have embraced the pass, 12 personnel has fallen slightly out of favor. Because of the use of multiple tight ends, 12 personnel has always been a run-heavy package.

In 2016, teams passed just 47 percent of the time from 12, a rate that went down to 45 percent in 2017. Passing rose to 48 percent in 2018, but it’s still a far cry from 66 percent pass rate from 11 personnel.

This matters because passing from 12 can be incredibly efficient. Last season, teams averaged 8.08 yards per attempt, 0.15 Expected Points Added per attempt, and had a positive play rate (the percentage of plays with positive EPA) of 54 percent from 12 personnel, per Sports Info Solutions.

From 11, those averages were 7.16 yards per attempt, 0.03 EPA per attempt, and a positive play rate of 49.5 percent. There is a sample size discrepancy there because there were significantly more pass attempts from 11, but that’s kind of the point. Teams really should throw more from 12."

Luckily we have a really, really good group and Josh who has plenty of experience with these types of groupings. Most teams don't have the versatility or coaching we have. The ability to flex Smith or Henry out while keeping one in to block, put them in the slot, motion/reverse. The freedom and ability to stay on the field is what it's all about. Teams are just not ready to defend a full fledged attack from that package bc they'll mostly likely be in base to combat the run threat.

Like everything else it depends on QB play and health but the pieces are there on this side of the ball to make a play for the division. Here's to good health and good QB play. Go Pats!!!
 

Sicilian

Pro Bowl Player
Always appreciate the time you put into these breakdowns, thank you. On this:

From Warren Sharp ...
"Instead of teams embracing heavy personnel packages to run the ball, they should start to use those heavier personnel packages to gain an advantage through the air, especially with 12 personnel (one running back, two tight ends, and two wide receivers).

It's interesting, because I feel like that's similar to what the Pats did at the end of Super Bowl 53. The one TD drive in the game I think they came out in a heavy formation for every play (can't remember if it was 12, 21, or 22), forced the Rams into a bigger defensive look, then threw to Edelman and Gronk. It worked because A) they had a TE like Gronk who had to be respected both as a blocker and receiver. B) Edelman was uncoverable that game. And C) Brady knows how to recognize and take advantage of those mismatches.

I think we have the tight end talent to use similar tactics at times. Neither Henry nor Smith are Gronk, but they provide the same style of conundrum for defenses: Do we go light and let them run over us, or do we go heavy knowing either of those guys can beat a linebacker 1 on 1? The big question is going to the QBs. Can Cam improve enough in year 2, or Mac be confident enough as a rookie, to recognize those opportunities? It will be fascinating to watch.
 

BaconGrundleCandy

#1 Mac Jones fan
PatsFans.com Supporter
We all want to see Uche unleashed. Even if it's strictly passing downs. His ability to move - edge, over guard, drop on coverage/spy should make him a valuable asset no matter which look we're in.


I'm loving the idea of him & Judon on the same side. Judon wide nine, Uche 6 or 7. Both are fluent in pressure packages - can look and move and both can run the loop. Lots of speed and change of direction between those two.



Judon is going to ball here. Absolutely out type. Versatile rusher you can move almost anywhere on there line. Mainly lining up 6, 7, 9 Tech but you can move him inside - 4i/5T. He's got a great jump, killer anticipation. Plus snap jumper that applies pressure asap. He's also got some real ankle & hip flexibility. He's a threat to run the arc every passing play. He's got plenty of power as well though. He's so good rushing 1/2 man he can turn around and bully someone's chest 5 feet off the line. Crafty, savvy rusher with active hands. His stride length and steps stick out and really make it difficult for tackles. Who are already at a disadvantage athletically, Judon can really mess with there eyes. Variety of moves but he clearly absorbed what Robert Quinn was teaching. Quinn is a sack master who taught Aaron Donald a thing or two. His cross-chop / euro step is stuff of legends and Judon is making him proud!

This Giants rush is just nasty. The jump, subtle fake inside, switching up strides. Euro with the chop. Amazing. You xan also see how his speed kills tackles. Onwenu comes out of the gate in trouble. Gains no depth on his first step. Maybe he was worried about a counter inside but Judon is fast and flexibility. Always remember a tackles butt is always supposed to be pointed at the QB. If it's not he's out of position. Pause his step and look where his butt is at. It's lost there.

Judon can stand his man up, set the edge & keep his outside shoulder clean. Plenty of strength to stack & shed. Good run defender/good run fits. Shows colors, crosses face to fit gaps. Sniffs out screens. Smart player with natural instincts.

He helps with playing 43 principles out of a 34 which looks like our base. I'd imagine we're going to see a lot of Judon & KVN standing with 2 down. Hopefully Guy & Barmore by the end of the year.

Another thing that jumps out is the fact that hes so good standing, moving pre-snap. I could see a lot more amoeba / zombie looks with all the guys we have capable of moving and doing damage standing.




Lots of speed in this front seven. Barmore & Perkins come from a slanting, aggressive system. Speed for days between Wino, Judon, Uche, KVN, HT. I really can see us making life hell for QB'S. Too much talent, speed and versatility up front.
 

BaconGrundleCandy

#1 Mac Jones fan
PatsFans.com Supporter
Nobody knows how to come up with apply pressure like Bill. Excellent at making linemen move, turn to open up space for his guys. Lots of time in the film room looking at who to attack and when. Looking for "turners" who open up lanes. Lots of patience from his guys, remember everyone wants to do everything fast so patience can really effect players. We should be terrorizing QB's this year.

IMG_20210730_084443.jpgIMG_20210730_084413.jpg



 

BaconGrundleCandy

#1 Mac Jones fan
PatsFans.com Supporter
Always appreciate the time you put into these breakdowns, thank you. On this:



It's interesting, because I feel like that's similar to what the Pats did at the end of Super Bowl 53. The one TD drive in the game I think they came out in a heavy formation for every play (can't remember if it was 12, 21, or 22), forced the Rams into a bigger defensive look, then threw to Edelman and Gronk. It worked because A) they had a TE like Gronk who had to be respected both as a blocker and receiver. B) Edelman was uncoverable that game. And C) Brady knows how to recognize and take advantage of those mismatches.

I think we have the tight end talent to use similar tactics at times. Neither Henry nor Smith are Gronk, but they provide the same style of conundrum for defenses: Do we go light and let them run over us, or do we go heavy knowing either of those guys can beat a linebacker 1 on 1? The big question is going to the QBs. Can Cam improve enough in year 2, or Mac be confident enough as a rookie, to recognize those opportunities? It will be fascinating to watch.
We really have a unique group that could be pretty deadly with top 10-15 QB play. Most teams just aren't equipped or ready to go that route for a full game. It's a commitment to stop the run and there's about 6 linebackers in the league that can really cover. Very excited to see how we utilize them. I've heard Smith has been in motion the past few days. Really hoping we let them loose, Asiasi included. He'll be very important if we're going to really do this.
 

sean10mm

Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job
In absolute terms I don't think Mac Jones has just blown Newton out of the building in 2 days of camp. Jones has had errors and Newton has had good plays. But I find it incredibly alarming for Newton that he's not the one who looks quick and decisive mentally when he's the veteran and Jones is the newbie. As the veteran Newton should be moon walking through the drills to the point where the biggest danger is him getting too bored with them, but that's not how it's playing out. He's the one holding the ball too long and thinking too much.

And last I checked more of Newton's snaps were with the first team offense, which makes the disparity there even worse.
 

BaconGrundleCandy

#1 Mac Jones fan
PatsFans.com Supporter
In absolute terms I don't think Mac Jones has just blown Newton out of the building in 2 days of camp. Jones has had errors and Newton has had good plays. But I find it incredibly alarming for Newton that he's not the one who looks quick and decisive mentally when he's the veteran and Jones is the newbie. As the veteran Newton should be moon walking through the drills to the point where the biggest danger is him getting too bored with them, but that's not how it's playing out. He's the one holding the ball too long and thinking too much.

And last I checked more of Newton's snaps were with the first team offense, which makes the disparity there even worse.
Yea definitely not and I hope no one got that from my post. We can count the hours so it's a tiny sample size but from everything I've read & was told. Jones has a better feel & command for this offense. Mainly just being decisive, balls out quicker and he looks like he's gaining confidence.

It'll be a long battle. Again like I mentioned before. A little more arm strength/arm talent and this might be over a lot quicker than most think.
 

oldrover

"You're gonna have to serve somebody..."
Thanks very much, BCG. Your presentations are thorough and very clear, even easy enough for this feeble old man to understand and appreciate.
I appreciate these threads too, for the knowledge they impart to PatsFans.

But inside, I'm kinda like...

 

BaconGrundleCandy

#1 Mac Jones fan
PatsFans.com Supporter
Thanks very much, BCG. Your presentations are thorough and very clear, even easy enough for this feeble old man to understand and appreciate. I look forward to visiting this thread often.
Absolutely my pleasure
I appreciate these threads too, for the knowledge they impart to PatsFans.

But inside, I'm kinda like...

Definitely, let me know, specifically what you have a question about.
 

BaconGrundleCandy

#1 Mac Jones fan
PatsFans.com Supporter
BCG-

What about Gunner in the slot?
I'd love it bc I love underdogs but truthfully I think he's a year away from really making noise there. I could definitely see him contributing this year at that spot but think he'll be mostly on ST bc of all the bodies in front of him. Meyers, Bourne, Agholor, TE', even White? All have done it so I think it's an uphill climb with all the guys we have. Definitely rooting for him even though I get nervous when the ball is in his hands.
 

sean10mm

Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job
I really feel like Jones's "lesser" arm strength has been overblown by some to the point where it's not really connected to reality anymore.

I mean this guy was actually a really good deep ball passer in college. That's not the pros but he's not playing with a dead arm like mid career Chad Pennington or something, at worst it's middle of the road for an NFL starter. And Newton might have absolute arm strength in theory, but he was also alternating between dirt darts and wild overthrows last year because of some mix of accumulated injuries and bad mechanics. How many times did him trying to push the ball hard just on an out route look like a shot put?

It got depressing to watch, and I wasn't a guy who hated him from the jump.
 

DaBruinz

Pats, B's, Sox
PatsFans.com Supporter
I'd love it bc I love underdogs but truthfully I think he's a year away from really making noise there. I could definitely see him contributing this year at that spot but think he'll be mostly on ST bc of all the bodies in front of him. Meyers, Bourne, Agholor, TE', even White? All have done it so I think it's an uphill climb with all the guys we have. Definitely rooting for him even though I get nervous when the ball is in his hands.
I've ben a Gunner fanboi since he signed. It's going to be interesting to see where he's at in terms of this. Like you, I believe he's likely a year away. I think that he'll be more successful if JONES is the QB than Cam. Cam seemed to overlook him many of the times that Gunner was on the field. There were a few times he went to Gunner and Gunner made the play last year.

Gunner seems to be taking the same track that Edelman took. And I think it's working out for him the way it worked out for Edelman.
 

BaconGrundleCandy

#1 Mac Jones fan
PatsFans.com Supporter
I really feel like Jones's "lesser" arm strength has been overblown by some to the point where it's not really connected to reality anymore.

I mean this guy was actually a really good deep ball passer in college. That's not the pros but he's not playing with a dead arm like mid career Chad Pennington or something, at worst it's middle of the road for an NFL starter. And Newton might have absolute arm strength in theory, but he was also alternating between dirt darts and wild overthrows last year because of some mix of accumulated injuries and bad mechanics. How many times did him trying to push the ball hard just on an out route look like a shot put?

It got depressing to watch, and I wasn't a guy who hated him from the jump.
We'll see in the pros. It wasn't an obstacle in college bc of the scheme, talent and his anticipation/accuracy (that's how he won deep not with arm strength) but it was noticeable all the through his pro day. It's very real but not a deal breaker and the easiest thing you can fix through conditioning/training, mechanics.

I honestly haven't seen anyone make too much of it.
 

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