Why Mac Jones playing this year is important

[1960Pats]

I’d say just go for it, he’s a better fit for our style of offense. Lombardi is big on Mac and he’s likely getting first hand info from his son on the staff.

Mike Reiss is also really excited about Mac. I think the kid is really winning people over fast.

I think this was the plan all along when they lost Brady.
Replace Brady with a Cam that nobody wanted, and at a great price.
Use Cam for a year and then draft Mac to take his place.
Then when Mac takes over he isn't Brady's replacement, he's Cam's.
The pressure is off the kid.
Brilliant!

 

[Jim Beankie]

Bill certainly leans on experience but Mac has shown to be a much better fit for this system than Cam.

My problem with Cam is

1 - I don't think he can last a full season, he gets injured at some point or just fall of a cliff as the small injuries start to pile up not to mention his previous foot and shoulder issues.

2 - He's a tragedy on 3rd downs.

That doesn't help the team at all, if the mantra is taking all decisions based on helping the team win, at some point Mac starts. Not to mention other reasons mentioned on previous posts.

I think Mac needs to improve phisically and given that idea that the first 4 games are kind of an extended pre season in terms of putting the players into peak football shape, for a rookie he's gonna double his pro football experience in that time, so I wouldnt mind him sitting on the bench for the start of the season, but I want to see him playing rather sooner than later.

I wouldn't call Cam a tragedy on 3rd downs. He had a higher completion percentage (64.7% ref footballdb) than Brady (61.2) at close to the same YPA . Well into the season we were second in avg yards per drive to the Chiefs before the wheels came. off (post Wynn/Rex injuries). The problem is that he wasn't able to finish. As Lazar said, "Newton [was] tied for 30th with nine big-time throws [last] season, according to Pro Football Focus (as of after the Miami game). Some would say it's because he sucks, others would say it's because he was throwing to Izzo and a bunch of UDFAs (and even worse, N'Keal), and others would say it's a combo.

I'll certainly agree with you there that at some point Mac will have to start due to an injury for Cam (esp if he stays unvaxxed).

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

I remember back at the end of the college season (I know you'll correct me if I'm misremembering) that one of your concerns with Mac was how he was going to handle NFL pressure after having gotten used to the relatively stout Alabama OL (I think you used specific play examples during the Championship game). I know our OL is strong, but with injuries, that can change in a hurry. I was reminded of this after watching bits of the Patriots' last season after Wynn went down.

Just curious to see what your thoughts on that are now that we've seen him in (so far doesn't count) action.

Yea I thought the biggest advantage he and recent Bama QB's have had were those OL's. Even in the SEC they just dominated. The space, time and attitude they brought was just overwhelming. Neal is another freak and will be a top 10 pick.

Yea that's a major concern. Let's say we were in the middle of some injuries to start the year. A tackle and guard for example are out for the first few weeks (4-6) , that would definitely impact my decision. Mac will have to deal with that but you don't put your new QB in that position if you don't have to. I would probably say the same thing if we didn't get Henry, Smith, Agholor, Meyers didn't look like the real deal.

It's easily the best spot to be in when you consider the young / rookie QB's. SF being next imo. Stability from the top down. Big offensive mind in the building. Top tier OL, plenty of targets, targets that fit his skill set. Everything is set up for Mac.

I'm certainly not saying start him no matter what or anything close to that. Combined with what I said above
(targets, OL, HC/OC/Owner) , Mac has performed better than Cam in several areas, some argue overall. Let's not ignore the obvious. I understand the concerns about his ability to survive a season but unless those concerns are glaring to the staff he has as good a case as you can make.

 

[Deus Irae]

I wouldn't call Cam a tragedy on 3rd downs. He had a higher completion percentage (64.7% ref footballdb) than Brady (61.2) at close to the same YPA . Well into the season we were second in avg yards per drive to the Chiefs before the wheels came. off (post Wynn/Rex injuries).

That's just misleading with stats though, isn't it? I mean, it leaves out the context needed to get to an actual assessment. For example, the Bucs were 9th in the league in 3rd down conversion percentage, while the Patriots were 17th. Additionally, in the last 3 games, the Bucs were 4th in the NFL, while the Patriots were 21st.

NFL Football Stats - NFL Team Third Down Conversion Percentage | TeamRankings.com

And, even adding that, we're still missing important context (yards needed, for example).

 

[Jim Beankie]

That's just misleading with stats though, isn't it? I mean, it leaves out the context needed to get to an actual assessment. For example, the Bucs were 9th in the league in 3rd down conversion percentage, while the Patriots were 17th. Additionally, in the last 3 games, the Bucs were 4th in the NFL, while the Patriots were 21st.

NFL Football Stats - NFL Team Third Down Conversion Percentage | TeamRankings.com

And, even adding that, we're still missing important context (yards needed, for example).

Thanks for the additional info. I'm not misleading, though - I'm just saying it's not fair to say that Cam is a tragedy on 3rd downs. The additional info you provided adds credence to my stance. Compared to what we've been used to for 20 years, I can see how it can seem tragic. For the last 3 games, if you take out Stid's 1-4 in the Bills game, then they'd be 18th and not 21st - just under average and out of the lower 3rd percentile.

I did mention that Cam's and Brady's YPA on 3rd down were not too far off (might as well add it: 6.1/7.0).

 

[DropKickFlutie]

Thanks for the additional info. I'm not misleading, though - I'm just saying it's not fair to say that Cam is a tragedy on 3rd downs. The additional info you provided adds credence to my stance. Compared to what we've been used to for 20 years, I can see how it can seem tragic. For the last 3 games, if you take out Stid's 1-4 in the Bills game, then they'd be 18th and not 21st - just under average and out of the lower 3rd percentile.

I did mention that Cam's and Brady's YPA on 3rd down were not too far off (might as well add it: 6.1/7.0).

Brady's last 10 games as a Patriot are strong evidence to not attribute last season to Cam. Even with the goat at QB the offense only averaged 17 points per game from halloween to end of season. So it was a crappy offense even before Cam got there super late. And lost key guys due to covid outs.

 

[Jim Beankie]

Brady's last 10 games as a Patriot are strong evidence to not attribute last season to Cam. Even with the goat at QB the offense only averaged 17 points per game from halloween to end of season. So it was a crappy offense even before Cam got there super late. And lost key guys due to covid outs.

I looked up the Patriots' 3rd down stats for 2019 on the site Deus brought up, and they were 18th (the 2nd half wasn't too bad at 36.7% on 3rd down), so they actually improved in 2020 by 2.5%! Brady19's Comp% was 56.2% (6.6YPA) compared to Cam's 64.7% (6.1YPA). That's pretty significant.

Holy crap - Brady had a higher percentage than Cam on 3rd down throws exactly one time in his career: 2016. 2007, he tied at 64.7%. The others he was sometimes much worse (like 52.4% in 2018).

---
I like this quote from LazUUr:

"Those who feel Newton’s accuracy is horrendous are exaggerating a bit, and once you tweet or write that every throw is off by ten yards, you lose me; it’s just not the case, so stop it.

On Sunday [during 2nd Dolphons game], Newton had an adjusted completion percentage of 80% and his best completion percentage over expected since Week 10 (0.7), but yet the narratives are he’s wildly inaccurate."

 

[Deus Irae]

Thanks for the additional info. I'm not misleading, though - I'm just saying it's not fair to say that Cam is a tragedy on 3rd downs. The additional info you provided adds credence to my stance. Compared to what we've been used to for 20 years, I can see how it can seem tragic. For the last 3 games, if you take out Stid's 1-4 in the Bills game, then they'd be 18th and not 21st - just under average and out of the lower 3rd percentile.

I did mention that Cam's and Brady's YPA on 3rd down were not too far off (might as well add it: 6.1/7.0).

I didn't mean that you were intentionally trying to mislead us. It's just that tossing out what you did was guaranteed to do it. It's not your fault. The sort of information that we'd need to have is probably mostly behind a paywall somewhere.

But the info I gave certainly did not give credence to your stance. And your mistake there was trying to pull Brady into it. You should just have argued that he was better than, say, 1/3 of the league. With just what we have now, that would have been more supportable.

 

[Jim Beankie]

I didn't mean that you were intentionally trying to mislead us. It's just that tossing out what you did was guaranteed to do it. It's not your fault. The sort of information that we'd need to have is probably mostly behind a paywall somewhere.

But the info I gave certainly did not give credence to your stance. And your mistake there was trying to pull Brady into it. You should just have argued that he was better than, say, 1/3 of the league. With just what we have now, that would have been more supportable.

I agree the data we'd need is really deep down analytics - how many of those were safe throws that didn't pick up the 1st down, etc.

I guess other people have a different definition of tragedy than I do. I'm thinking like bottom 5 or something. Cam would agree himself that last year overall he was a bottom 5 QB because Pats couldn't get TDs - PFF's Big-Time Throws stat (sounds made up) has him in the bottom 5 - that's a tragedy. On third downs in general, though, he was fine - better than Brady in 2019 in converting 3rd downs - not a tragedy. Cam was 6th overall last year in 3rd down completion percentage (footballdb.com: Minshew, Allen, Brees, Bridgewater, and Goff were higher) - again far from a tragedy (still 7-8 as a starter). Heck, like I mentioned in another post, Brady only once in his career (2016) had a higher 3rd down completion % than Cam.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

I looked up the Patriots' 3rd down stats for 2019 on the site Deus brought up, and they were 18th (the 2nd half wasn't too bad at 36.7% on 3rd down), so they actually improved in 2020 by 2.5%! Brady19's Comp% was 56.2% (6.6YPA) compared to Cam's 64.7% (6.1YPA). That's pretty significant.

Holy crap - Brady had a higher percentage than Cam on 3rd down throws exactly one time in his career: 2016. 2007, he tied at 64.7%. The others he was sometimes much worse (like 52.4% in 2018).

---
I like this quote from LazUUr:

"Those who feel Newton’s accuracy is horrendous are exaggerating a bit, and once you tweet or write that every throw is off by ten yards, you lose me; it’s just not the case, so stop it.

On Sunday [during 2nd Dolphons game], Newton had an adjusted completion percentage of 80% and his best completion percentage over expected since Week 10 (0.7), but yet the narratives are he’s wildly inaccurate."

You're using stats to people biased and see only what they want to see. See 1 bad Cam throw into the dirt that's all they remember. Forget a dozen Brady throwaway balls. The easiest thing for me was the 2019 post-AB offense was crap even with Brady so it also means a lot of 2020 woes went way beyond Cam Newton. I wish it weren't the case but the whole Cam experience in New England has played out exactly as predicted.

.

 

[Pats1971]

You're using stats to people biased and see only what they want to see. See 1 bad Cam throw into the dirt that's all they remember. Forget a dozen Brady throwaway balls. The easiest thing for me was the 2019 post-AB offense was crap even with Brady so it also means a lot of 2020 woes went way beyond Cam Newton. I wish it weren't the case but the whole Cam experience in New England has played out exactly as predicted.

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Ok, you are comparing a QB that had 8 td's and 10 ints last year to Brady. I hate to break it to you, but after 6 superbowls with the team and all the times he willed us out of **** over and over and over. not sure him throwing a ball away gets the same treatment that a guy who was here one year and put up the worst passing stats in 25 years for the team. The Crap Brady in 2019 had 24 td's and 8 ints and we went 12-4. The crap Cam had 8 td's and 10 ints and we went 7-9. Maybe comparing Cam to Brady is not the best idea to make your point.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

Ok, you are comparing a QB that had 8 td's and 10 ints last year to Brady. I hate to break it to you, but after 6 superbowls with the team and all the times he willed us out of **** over and over and over. not sure him throwing a ball away gets the same treatment that a guy who was here one year and put up the worst passing stats in 25 years for the team. The Crap Brady in 2019 had 24 td's and 8 ints and we went 12-4. The crap Cam had 8 td's and 10 ints and we went 7-9. Maybe comparing Cam to Brady is not the best idea to make your point.

Pats went 0.500 after AB was cut. And Cam never got any red zone throws by the OC. It's not as far apart as you think. After AB was cut the Pats only averaged 17 points per game and went 0.500 despite the best D in the league and an embarassing exit against the Titans....

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[Pats1971]

I looked up the Patriots' 3rd down stats for 2019 on the site Deus brought up, and they were 18th (the 2nd half wasn't too bad at 36.7% on 3rd down), so they actually improved in 2020 by 2.5%! Brady19's Comp% was 56.2% (6.6YPA) compared to Cam's 64.7% (6.1YPA). That's pretty significant.

Holy crap - Brady had a higher percentage than Cam on 3rd down throws exactly one time in his career: 2016. 2007, he tied at 64.7%. The others he was sometimes much worse (like 52.4% in 2018).

---
I like this quote from LazUUr:

"Those who feel Newton’s accuracy is horrendous are exaggerating a bit, and once you tweet or write that every throw is off by ten yards, you lose me; it’s just not the case, so stop it.

On Sunday [during 2nd Dolphons game], Newton had an adjusted completion percentage of 80% and his best completion percentage over expected since Week 10 (0.7), but yet the narratives are he’s wildly inaccurate."

Brady's completion pct in 2019 was 60%. But lets get to actual things....Cam's has had 30 td's in a season...once. Brady 8 times. Cam has had more than 25 td's in a season...once, Brady 15 times. Brady has passed for 4000 yards in a season 12 times, cam? once. Cam has been under 60% completion pct 6 times, brady? Zero. I mean I can keep going but is this really the two you want to compare?

 

[Pats1971]

Pats went 0.500 after AB was cut. And Cam never got any red zone throws by the OC. It's not as far apart as you think. After AB was cut the Pats only averaged 17 points per game and went 0.500 despite the best D in the league and an embarassing exit against the Titans....

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Cam had 8 td's and 10 ints and we had the lowest passing yards in 25 years....just stop. Brown played in one game. lol

 

[DropKickFlutie]

Cam had 8 td's and 10 ints and we had the lowest passing yards in 25 years....just stop. Brown played in one game. lol

I'm saying the offense sucked after AB was cut. Stop throwing in stats when the Pats were 8-0. The 2019 team went in a spiral from week9 till end of year, and last year's team was the same crap from the same coordinator.

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[Jim Beankie]

Brady's completion pct in 2019 was 60%. But lets get to actual things....Cam's has had 30 td's in a season...once. Brady 8 times. Cam has had more than 25 td's in a season...once, Brady 15 times. Brady has passed for 4000 yards in a season 12 times, cam? once. Cam has been under 60% completion pct 6 times, brady? Zero. I mean I can keep going but is this really the two you want to compare?

Not sure what you're trying to accomplish - appreciate the effort, though. I'm simply supporting the fact that Cam was not a tragedy on 3rd downs last year.

 

[Ring 6]

I think this was the plan all along when they lost Brady.
Replace Brady with a Cam that nobody wanted, and at a great price.
Use Cam for a year and then draft Mac to take his place.
Then when Mac takes over he isn't Brady's replacement, he's Cam's.
The pressure is off the kid.
Brilliant!

If you want to win in this league you want your QB to be exposed to and deal with pressure and adversity, not be hidden from it.

 

[Pats1971]

Not sure what you're trying to accomplish - appreciate the effort, though. I'm simply supporting the fact that Cam was not a tragedy on 3rd downs last year.

and I am just saying comparing Cam to Brady is not a great way to make any point. We obviously were bad on offense last year, that is why Bill went out and spent a ton of money on weapons and took a Qb higher than he ever has in his coaching career. I mean he can see it.

 

[Pats1971]

I'm saying the offense sucked after AB was cut. Stop throwing in stats when the Pats were 8-0. The 2019 team went in a spiral from week9 till end of year, and last year's team was the same crap from the same coordinator.

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and I am saying that we were 12-4 and Brady had 24 td's and 8 ints and passed for 4000 yards So yeah, that is a bit down for him for sure. It would be a career year if Cam did it.

 

[Ring 6]

Not sure what you're trying to accomplish - appreciate the effort, though. I'm simply supporting the fact that Cam was not a tragedy on 3rd downs last year.

29 1st downs on 85 3rd down passes with 3 Ints and 10 sacks is tragic.