Why has Welker not been extended?

[Shelterdog]

Its a tough call whether you would rather have the best guy in the league, maybe ever, at his job, or someone cheaper who might be able to play the position?

I'd love to have the best guy in the league.

How sure are you that in the 2012-2014 or 2015 period that's going to be Welker?

 

[ctpatsfan77]

That's fine by me when paired with all the other weapons, and I like this strategy better than what the offense looked like when Brady simply locked onto Moss and if covered simply dumped down to Welker.

That said, I think you'll see Welker open more this year, because teams will be forced, at least in the passing game, to choose between Death by Tight Ends (especially GRONK) and Death by Smurfs.

 

[Patriot_in_NY]

I know this is going to get me in a lot of heat, but you really cannot talk about Wes Welker's production from 2007-wk 4,2010 without talking about Randy Moss. With Moss, Wes only had 8 games with fewer than 5 receptions over a 3 year and 4 wk period (I'm ignoring the wk 17 '09 Houston game - not his fault he only had one catch). That's amazing. Even more amazing when you consider Brady was gone for a year

.....

You bring up some great points. I'm as big a fan of Welker as anyone, but his ridiculous catch counts 07-10 had a lot to do with many other factors (Moss highest among them). Not just his own (significant) talent.

I think that the FO is willing to ride it out a bit longer and see what kind of production there is this year, in the current scheme (which is most likely we're gonna see going forward) now that he's 100% back from his injury, before locking him up long term for oodles of cash. BB doesn't typically like to overspend at receiver.

By all account Wes is having a stellar camp and looks to be more then 100%, which is great. He'll obviously benefit from Ocho's presence as well. Ocho will have a sorta "Moss-like" effect on many teams (certainly mores then anyone did after Moss left last year). He's not going to stretch the field as much, but he is a superior route runner and will certainly command a double-team is many situations. Likewise, having Gronk and/or Hernandaz in there is likely going to drawn some bodies away from Wes too, so I think he'll have a much better year. On the order of 90-100/900-1000....

All that said, I can't see the crazy 110-120 catch seasons returning for Wes. We just don't run the same offense or have the same personnel. I'd love to be wrong, but I just don't see it. On the up side though, I don't think we need him too either.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

You bring up some great points. I'm as big a fan of Welker as anyone, but his ridiculous catch counts 07-10 had a lot to do with many other factors (Moss highest among them). Not just his own (significant) talent.

I think that the FO is willing to ride it out a bit longer and see what kind of production there is this year, in the current scheme (which is most likely we're gonna see going forward) now that he's 100% back from his injury, before locking him up long term for oodles of cash. BB doesn't typically like to overspend at receiver.

By all account Wes is having a stellar camp and looks to be more then 100%, which is great. He'll obviously benefit from Ocho's presence as well. Ocho will have a sorta "Moss-like" effect on many teams (certainly mores then anyone did after Moss left last year). He's not going to stretch the field as much, but he is a superior route runner and will certainly command a double-team is many situations. Likewise, having Gronk and/or Hernandaz in there is likely going to drawn some bodies away from Wes too, so I think he'll have a much better year. On the order of 90-100/900-1000....

All that said, I can't see the crazy 110-120 catch seasons returning for Wes. We just don't run the same offense or have the same personnel. I'd love to be wrong, but I just don't see it. On the up side though, I don't think we need him too either.

FWIW, Welker's yards as a percentage of total passing yards for the team:

2010: 22.0%
2009: 30.4%
2008: 32.6%
2007: 24.8%

I'll say this: if WWW is accounting for ~1,000 yards and only ~20-25% of the passing yards, I think we will all be VERY happy with the results.

 

[Patriot_in_NY]

FWIW, Welker's yards as a percentage of total passing yards for the team:

2010: 22.0%
2009: 30.4%
2008: 32.6%
2007: 24.8%

I'll say this: if WWW is accounting for ~1,000 yards and only ~20-25% of the passing yards, I think we will all be VERY happy with the results.

Well, not including last year (where he was coming back from injury and we changed schemes mid-season). Welker averaged 28.4% of the passing yards in 07,08,09. If he returns to that number this year and only has ~1000 yds..... Well, you might be very happy, but the rest of us probably won't be, because we'll only have around 3500 passing ids this year, which would statistically be one of our worst years in the BB era.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Well, not including last year (where he was coming back from injury and we changed schemes mid-season). Welker averaged 28.4% of the passing yards in 07,08,09. If he returns to that number this year and only has ~1000 yds..... Well, you might be very happy, but the rest of us probably won't be, because we'll only have around 3500 passing ids this year, which would statistically be one of our worst years in the BB era.

Sorry. I meant 1,000+ (which would mean 4,000-5,000+ in the passing game).

Then again, in my dream world, the D gets so many turnovers that the Pats have the ball for about 40+ min/game, Brady gets 5 TDs by halftime, and then Hoyer and Mallett get to come in for cleanup duty and more TDs.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Welker's real value lies not in his yards and not even in his receptions, it lies in his ability to bail Brady out when he's getting pressure and to get critical first downs and keep moving the chains, so it's not surprising that those who value fantasy football over real football don't understand his real worth to the Patriots. He doesn't make their fantasy rosters therefore he should be dealt. Fantasy football may be a boon to the football economy but it has done a real disservice to the basic understanding of the actual game, as fans now value fantasy stats over the contributions of the best players to the success of their teams.

 

[livinginthe past]

Welker's real value lies not in his yards and not even in his receptions, it lies in his ability to bail Brady out when he's getting pressure and to get critical first downs and keep moving the chains, so it's not surprising that those who value fantasy football over real football don't understand his real worth to the Patriots. He doesn't make their fantasy rosters therefore he should be dealt. Fantasy football may be a boon to the football economy but it has done a real disservice to the basic understanding of the actual game, as fans now value fantasy stats over the contributions of the best players to the success of their teams.

Nailed it.

 

[satz]

I will wait till week 10 and then if he is producing go after him.He will be 32 but his skill is not out right speed so he will be effective for 2-3 yrs.
Say 3 yrs with 15 million in real dollars.

I think i will choose him over branch next year. so we will have ocho and wes for 2012-13. we are waiting for a 3rd WR an outside guy. Price /tate / someone else can be this guy.

my thoughts on tate is , till moss was traded he was a backup to Moss.With our TE`s and Moss he just did not have the reps so i will see what he has to offer this year.

 

[Huckleberry1]

I don't understand why the Cards are negotiating with Fitzgerald, he will be 30 when the 2013 season begins and they could get a draft choice for him.

 

[Shelterdog]

I don't understand why the Cards are negotiating with Fitzgerald, he will be 30 when the 2013 season begins and they could get a draft choice for him.

Yup 30 year old, just led the leauge in drops Wes Welker and 27 (28 in two weeks) unfranchiseable Fitzgerald are in the exact same situation.

 

[Snake Eyes]

I don't understand why the Cards are negotiating with Fitzgerald, he will be 30 when the 2013 season begins and they could get a draft choice for him.

Probably because he's ridiculous and the guy you draft isn't going to have a fraction of the impact Fitzgerald will.

 

[lurker1965]

Not to be callous and rain on anyone's binky (yes, mixed metaphor, but you know what I'm trying to say even though I'm clear like a stain glass window):

Welker led the league in drops last year. Maybe that was due to injury. (I think it was, btw.) Maybe it'll get better this year as he heals. (I think it will, IMO.)

However, we are not talking parenthesis. Let's see what he can still do before I pay him. If so, pay him what you would probably offer him now. If not, offer him a contract commensurate to his abilities. If he over values himself, we have Welker 2.0 in Edelman.

Yes, that is cold. We are talking contracts, and businesses have no hearts. Excuse me, good businesses have no hearts.

 

[goheels22002]

To answer the question directly, it would appear that Wes Welker is way down on the priority list until the money needed to lock in the players necessary on the defensive side of the ball is firmed up.

There's been a nice sequence to the contract work so far: sign the glamour free agents, stabilize the offensive line, get all the rookies signed within the new rules and fill up the 90 man roster. The offense is basically solid with returning starters and great depth everywhere.

Contract-wise, the defense is the huge unknown as all these veteran defensive linemen and linebackers go through auditions. If I see what is right before our noses, the Patriots are trying to build depth and greater command of the defensive line to go with the terrific young, fast, aggressive talent they've assembled at LB and DB. The work to be done in the next two weeks as they cut down to who they want to keep dominates the focus.

Welker is in a great spot. He can look for security with a cap-friendly three year deal or play this year out and go for a big payday on the open market. The Pats have youth and depth to work with as the previous posters have mentioned.

I also think this slot receiver position may be one of the easiest to fill since there is a plethora of talent in college of small guys who can catch and run after the catch. The competition that drives up salary investment is for the tall, fast talented wideout, which BB refuses to be held hostage by with TB at the controls.

My guess is Wes will get signed long-term between the last cut down day and week 3 of the regular season once the dust settles.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Yup 30 year old, just led the leauge in drops Wes Welker and 27 (28 in two weeks) unfranchiseable Fitzgerald are in the exact same situation.

They could get a draft pick for him, that would be good VALUE, it would be awesome. It's obvious that the way to improve is to get rid of your best players, especially when their fantasy production is down.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Yup 30 year old, just led the leauge in drops Wes Welker and 27 (28 in two weeks) unfranchiseable Fitzgerald are in the exact same situation.

No doubt, Welker sucks. He's completely unreliable, that's why Brady won't throw to him. And he's so old, ancient in fact. The Patriots should cut him and make Buddy Farnham the slot WR.

 

[Shelterdog]

No doubt, Welker sucks. He's completely unreliable, that's why Brady won't throw to him. And he's so old, ancient in fact. The Patriots should cut him and make Buddy Farnham the slot WR.

That's exactly what I said.

You really rebutted the core of my argument there.


GOOD JOB BRO!

 

[Huckleberry1]

That's exactly what I said.

You really rebutted the core of my argument there.


GOOD JOB BRO!

Thanks, it wasn't hard as you have no argument given that you want to get rid of Brady's favorite target and one of the most productive players in football because he will turn 30 someday. It's batsh.t crazy and if you don't believe me just trot on down to Gillette and ask Brady what he thinks, although i realize his opinion is nothing compared to the analysis of the fantasy GM's.

 

[D-Money]

I thought Fitzgerald wanted to win a superbowl.He must think his QB is gonna be good.I think the jury is still out on Kolb.

 

[TheSolderKing]

GIVE THE GUY (caps) a relatively Big signing bonus w/ cheaper annual salaries

just a thought