Why don't Pats make a play for big time receiver?

[supafly]

First of all I mentioned Ed Reed, meaning the Ed Reed of yester year, not the current Ed Reed. Secondly, I bring up Thomas because in that draft, we dealt the rights to Thomas to Denver and in turn for that deal, we ended up with DMac and Taylor Price. I am pretty sure if you polled the NFL fans across the Nation, the vast majority would say that we **** the bed with that decision.

I think sometimes the front office out thinks itself by attempting to take WRs who are more intelligent, even if they lack some of the talent that a guy like D.Thomas had. Either that, or they target a specific group of WRs who they hope will work out and that group is much smaller than we may realize. The truth may be a combination of both to try and raise the odds of having them understand the system. Unfortunately, that hasn't paid off very well.

It seemed that this year they may have made some changes to help these kids along, especially under the circumstances. There was no room for failure this season. Either that, or they really hit home runs, but I'm guessing it was a bit more of the former.

 

[ripatsfan91]

If there was one receiver that the pats had a realistic shot at getting it would have been vincent jackson. When he held out for a new contract after his DUI charge in San Diego, I was praying Bill would trade for him on the cheap

 

[patsfan-1982]

Brady's #6 opt from last year is on pace for 100 rec and 1000 yards so we cant say they that BB is killing Brady's golden years his averaged like 4600 yards over the last 4 years you cant do that without someone to throw the ball to,

they need big stops on defense come playoff time and if they don't get them they wont win I don't care who they have at WR

 

[SVN]

If there was one receiver that the pats had a realistic shot at getting it would have been vincent jackson. When he held out for a new contract after his DUI charge in San Diego, I was praying Bill would trade for him on the cheap

After watching him take plays off with the bucs this year ? No thanks.

 

[TruthSeeker]

After watching him take plays off with the bucs this year ? No thanks.

Sounds like Randy Moss with the Raiders.

 

[TruthSeeker]

Why should DMac have a lot more picks? QBs don't throw anywhere near him.

Also not really getting the Demaryius Thomas comparison, either. He was taken 5 picks before McCourty. And McCourty is better than Reed, and almost as good as Thomas.

Denver traded up with us to #22 to take Thomas. BUT, they gave us extra picks to move up to draft Gronk. The bonehead mistake came in the third when we took Price instead of Decker or Jimmy Graham.

 

[varjao]

Vjax is a great name but I remember he went to Tampa for a lot of money.

 

[borg]

I think the OP should back up a step here. The question really shouldn't be why we don't get a big time receiver so much as it should be what is the value of a big time receiver? Considering 5 of the top 10 receivers this season (including the top 4) are on teams without winning records, what exactly is the value of a big-time receiver when it comes to winning football games?

Calvin Johnson has had 1 winning season so far in 7 seasons. Larry Fitzgerald has been on 3 winning teams (including this year) out of 10 seasons. Andre Johnson has been on 3 winning teams out of 11 seasons.

Dez Bryant has yet to play for a winning team, and when he performs well, his team loses (4-12 in games he gains over 100 yards or scores 2 TDs). Josh Gordon just completed perhaps the greatest 4-game stretch for a wide receiver ever (36 catches for 774 yards, 21.5 YPC and 5 TDs, plus a 34-yard run) yet Cleveland lost all 4 games. In fact, Cleveland is 1-6 in games where Gordon gets 100 yards, and 3-2 in games he plays in but doesn't hit 100 yards.

There are also lots of good wide receivers on teams with winning records as well, don't get me wrong. But most of those guys don't come with massive contracts that destroy the team's cap. Here are the numbers for the other 5 receivers in the top 10 on winning teams:

5. DeSean Jackson: 5 years, $47M, $15M guaranteed
6. A.J. Green: rookie contract 4 years, $19.7M fully guaranteed
7. Alshon Jeffrey: rookie contract 4 years, $4.4M, $2.7 guaranteed
8. Demaryius Thomas: rookie contract 5 years, $12.2M, $9.4 guaranteed
9. Brandon Marshall: 5 years, $50M, $24M guaranteed

3 rookie deals for great value, 2 solid vets that are market value (in the top 20 deals based on average per year) but not at the very top like the top 5 below:

- Calvin Johnson: 7 years, $132M, $60M guaranteed
- Larry Fitzgerald: 8 years, $120M, $50M guaranteed

These next ones came during a DOWN year for contracts, yet teams still overspent and so far, haven't gotten great returns:

- Percy Harvin: 6 years, $67M, $25M guaranteed
- Mike Wallace: 5 years, $60M, $25M guaranteed
- Dwayne Bowe: 5 years, $56M, $26M guaranteed

This season, 4 of those 5 top contracts are contending for a potential play-off spot, but I don't know if any of them are really offering value. Fitzgerald leads the team in receptions but is second in yards. Harvin hasn't played much at all. Wallace is second on the team in receptions and yards to Brian Hartline, who also signed a 5-year deal for $31M, or basically half of what Wallace did. Dwayne Bowe isn't in the top 50 receivers in receptions or yards, and is second on the team in receptions to a running back.

In fact, if you look at the top 20 WR average salaries, only 9 are on winning teams (including Harvin, Wallace, and Bowe, who haven't really contributed near the levels thought when signed).

This is all just a long-winded way of saying that teams can win without big time receivers, especially if they don't have to carry the big-time contracts that often come with them. There just isn't a lot of value in spending $10M+ on a WR, and I don't know why the OP is so eager to see us do so. When you're trying to imitate the ******* Detroit Lions or Arizona Cardinals, well, I really don't know what to say...

Nice work CPF.
Extrapolating your fine WR research, I draw several conclusions:
1) Teams pay up to compensate for weak QB play. In other words...this WR will make our crappy QB better
2) Buying the face of the franchise. Get a star....sell more tickets
3) Desperation. The Day 1 FA signings

Teams that don't need to overcompensate....Teams with a secure fan base...Teams that have options: They operate in a macro world of the Big Picture. And from an economic reality, dropping 10% of cap space on a WR that touches the ball an average of 6 times per game is an inefficient use of resources.

 

[Brady6]

Just for the record, my biggest defense of Sterling Moore came after his rookie season, as I thought that he deserved another chance at a longer look.

Unfortunately, it seemed that he was pretty mediocre at best, although he did know the system, had some experience here, and could have possibly been groomed to succeed a bit more, with potential improvement. That is why he was likely put on the practice squad (or one of the reasons).

I'm certainly not claiming him to be some great gem of a player, and I was definitely proven wrong when he came back for his 2nd season--aside from the nice job that he did helping to limit L.Fitzgerald with safety help. My only real defense in him was wanting to see him stay on for a longer look, and unfortunately he wasn't able to take advantage of that properly due to his limitations in talent.

I'd still be interested in seeing him as an end of roster guy, but that will likely never happen. If he ever expects to make a name for himself, he'll have to rise to the challenges. That said, he has done some nice things from time to time w/ Dallas.

I agree with you I thought he deserved a longer look and I actually liked Moore and was a fan of him. He reminded me a bit of Cortland Finnegan a player that lacked exceptional size or athletic ability but had very good ball skills and was a tough competitor. I do not think they wanted to lose Moore it was more of a numbers game at the time, I think he would have been a nice player to have here and if they had known that Dowling was going to give them nothing again this year and be cut they might have played that differently.

 

[Brady6]

Denver traded up with us to #22 to take Thomas. BUT, they gave us extra picks to move up to draft Gronk. The bonehead mistake came in the third when we took Price instead of Decker or Jimmy Graham.

Price had issues with ADHD and the ability to comprehend an NFL offense. That was his issue, overall the guy was extremely talented with solid size at 6’1 205 lbs. and ran between a 4.3-4.4 forty with a 37 vertical jump. Price had back to back 50 reception seasons on a run first Ohio team. Looking at the pick it was a good one in logic they even worked him out predraft unfortunately it just went the wrong way.

I will say this to this day I question if Taylor Price was a poor pick or if he was poorly developed by the coaches, he came in at a time as a rookie and was in camp with Moss, Welker, Gronkowski, Hernandez and others the team also thought they had something in Brandon Tate and were developing him at that time to, a part of me believes Price got caught in the shuffle and was overlooked. Then his second season he did not have an offseason because of the NFL strike and came in and had a hard time finding the field because they were trying to work Chad Johnson into the mix and they also had a prolific passing attack with their current mix of receivers. Edelman was nonexistent as a wide receiver during those same 2 years and Brandon Tate also failed to turn into the player most expected.

What I will say for Price is during his time here he played in 1 game in that game he was targeted 4 times had 3 receptions for 41 receiving yards and 3 first downs. He went on to Jacksonville and played in 2 games where he was targeted 3 times had 2 receptions for 39 receiving yards and 2 first downs; for his career Price played in 3 games was targeted 7 times had 5 receptions for 80 receiving yards, a 16.0 YPC average and 5 first downs. Neither of the 2 incompletions on his targets were drops either; honestly I do not have a good enough memory to know if Price’s issue was getting open but when he was open he made plays 100% of his receptions resulted in a new set of downs in my opinion he was a player that should have been developed and this team failed in doing that. I was a big Bill O’Brien fan but I am curious if his focus was so entrenched in building a 2 tight end offense that he lost sight of developing the wide receivers. Johnson, Tate, Price and Edelman all struggled during the 2 years he was the OC.

 

[BradyFTW!]

First of all I mentioned Ed Reed, meaning the Ed Reed of yester year, not the current Ed Reed. Secondly, I bring up Thomas because in that draft, we dealt the rights to Thomas to Denver and in turn for that deal, we ended up with DMac and Taylor Price. I am pretty sure if you polled the NFL fans across the Nation, the vast majority would say that we **** the bed with that decision.

The majority of NFL fans are pretty dumb, fantasy-obsessed, and have no idea how to evaluate safety play, so I really don't care what they'd say about Thomas vs. McCourty.

 

[VJCPatriot]

Of course it's luck but generally the Pats D isn't always as banged up as this. As for getting a receiver like Calvin, it really isn't that hard is it? You tell him how about playing under Tom and Bill and he tells Detroit i wanna go. At that point it's elementary because all three parties sides want the deal done so what the Pats give up is easily negotiable for a player of that calibre.

You're kidding right? If BB picks up the phone and asks for Megatron, Detroit laughs in his face and hangs up. And rightfully so. Megatron is their franchise, not Stafford or Bush.

I think sometimes the front office out thinks itself by attempting to take WRs who are more intelligent, even if they lack some of the talent that a guy like D.Thomas had. Either that, or they target a specific group of WRs who they hope will work out and that group is much smaller than we may realize. The truth may be a combination of both to try and raise the odds of having them understand the system. Unfortunately, that hasn't paid off very well.

It seemed that this year they may have made some changes to help these kids along, especially under the circumstances. There was no room for failure this season. Either that, or they really hit home runs, but I'm guessing it was a bit more of the former.

I think that this year's WR class is due to the Josh McDaniels effect. He also picked Thomas and Decker who are lighting it up for Denver. So the lesson is - let McDaniels help pick the receivers during the draft, but keep him the hell AWAY from any QB drafting input!! LOL

 

[BradyFTW!]

I think sometimes the front office out thinks itself by attempting to take WRs who are more intelligent, even if they lack some of the talent that a guy like D.Thomas had. Either that, or they target a specific group of WRs who they hope will work out and that group is much smaller than we may realize. The truth may be a combination of both to try and raise the odds of having them understand the system. Unfortunately, that hasn't paid off very well.

It seemed that this year they may have made some changes to help these kids along, especially under the circumstances. There was no room for failure this season. Either that, or they really hit home runs, but I'm guessing it was a bit more of the former.

To build on some of the other posts here, I think we can all agree that the best way to get a gamebreaking receiver without breaking your cap in the process is through the draft. But guess what? Drafting receivers is really hard. This isn't unique to Belichick. The Packers are probably the only team that can consistently nail it, and who even knows how much of that is just the Rodgers effect.

The following guys were first round picks between 2003 and 2012:

Charles Rogers (2)
Bryant Johnson (17)
Larry Fitzgerald (3)
Roy Williams (7)
Reggie Williams (9)
Lee Evans (13)
Michael Clayton (15)
Michael Jenkins (29)
Rashaun Woods (31)
Braylon Edwards (3)
Troy Williamson (7)
Mike Williams (10)
Matt Jones (21)
Mark Clayton (22)
Roddy White (27)
Santonio Holmes (25)
Calvin Johnson (2)
Ted Ginn (9)
Dwayne Bowe (23)
Robert Meacham (27)
Craig Davis (30)
Anthony Gonzalez (32)
Darrius Heyward-Bey (7)
Michael Crabtree (10)
Jeremy Maclin (19)
Percy Harvin (22)
Hakeem Nicks (29)
Kenny Britt (30)
Demaryius Thomas (22)
Dez Bryant (24)
AJ Green (4)
Julio Jones (6)
Jonathan Baldwin (26)
Justin Blackmon (5)
Michael Floyd (13)
Kendall Wright (20)
AJ Jenkins (30)

Of that group, I'd say it's too early to make a call on three guys -- Blackmon, Floyd, and Wright. Of the remaining 34 players, I'd say that Fitzgerald, White, Holmes, CJ, Nicks, Thomas, Bryant, Green, and Jones have been definite good picks. That's 9.

Of the 25 that are still left, I'd say that Braylon, Crabtree, Maclin, Bowe, Harvin, and maybe even Britt have become genuine assets, even if they were drafted too high in hindsight. That's another 6.

Which means 19 of the 34 have just been general failures as draft picks. That's over half, although it does seem that there was just a ton of misses from 2003-2005 (only 2 of 15 really earned their draft spots), and that since then the percentages have been a fair amount better. But still, to have that high of a percentage whiffing, compounded with the fact that even when you hit it doesn't necessary correlate all that strongly with winning, and it is a lot of risk without a ton of comparative reward. At least QBs justify being high-risk picks by rewarding the hell out of you if they hit.

So I think we can all agree that, over the last decade, picking a WR in the first round has been a 50/50 proposition at best for getting a real asset. Now let's look at the second round over the same time frame.

Taylor Jacobs (44)
Bethel Johnson (45)
Anquan Boldin (54)
Tyrone Calico (60)
Devery Henderson (50)
Darius Watts (54)
Keary Colbert (62)
Reggie Brown (35)
Mark Bradley (39)
Roscoe Parrish (55)
Terence Murphy (58)
Vincent Jackson (61)
Chad Jackson (36)
Sinorice Moss (44)
Greg Jennings (52)
Sidney Rice (44)
Dwayne Jarrett (45)
Steve Smith (51)
Donnie Avery (33)
Devin Thomas (34)
Jordy Nelson (36)
James Hardy (41)
Eddie Royal (42)
Jerome Simpson (46)
DeSean Jackson (49)
Malcolm Kelly (51)
Limas Sweed (53)
Dexter Jackson (58)
Brian Robiskie (36)
Mohamed Massaquoi (50)
Arrelious Benn (39)
Golden Tate (60)
Titus Young (44)
Torrey Smith (58)
Greg Little (59)
Randall Cobb (64)
Brian Quick (33)
Stephen Hill (43)
Alshon Jeffery (45)
Ryan Broyles (54)
Rueben Randle (63)

That's 41 guys, and of them I think you can only definitively call the following hits: Boldin, VJax, Jennings, Avery, Nelson, DeSean, Rice, Tate, Torrey Smith, Cobb, and Jeffery. That already feels pretty generous, but if I'm being exceptionally generous I'll call Randle and Broyles close enough to a hit given how short their careers have been, then call Simpson, Henderson, Royal, and Steve Smith hits because they are (or were) better-than-league-average receivers.

Even the most generous of all interpretations only gets me to 17 out of 41, or ~40% hit rate.

So, long story short, drafting WRs in the first 2 rounds is really hard, and only one team does it particularly well. If the Pats end up hitting on Dobson, then having Branch and Dobson to show for 4 second round WR picks. That's actually better than the league average over roughly the same time frame. If you're getting a good WR for one out of every 2 picks, you're doing better than the league average.

Now look at third rounders:

Kelley Washington (65)
Nate Burleson (71)
Kevin Curtis (74)
Billy McMullen (95)
Derrick Hamilton (77)
Bernard Berrian (78)
Devard Darling (82)
Courtney Roby (68)
Chris Henry (83)
Brandon Jones (96)
Travis Wilson (78)
Derek Hagan (82)
Brandon Williams (84)
Maurice Stovall (90)
Willie Reid (95)
Jacoby Jones (73)
Yamon Figurs (74)
Laurent Robinson (75)
Jason Hill (76)
James Jones (77)
Mike Sims-Walker (78)
Paul Williams (80, and yes, that was a run 7 WRs in 8 picks)
Johnnie Lee Higgins (99)
Earl Bennett (70)
Early Doucet (81)
Harry Douglas (84)
Mario Manningham (94)
Andre Caldwell (97)
Derrick Williams (82)
Brandon Tate (83)
Mike Wallace (84)
Ramses Barden (85)
Patrick Turner (87)
Deon Butler (91)
Juaquin Iglesias (99)
Damian Williams (77)
Brandon LaFell (78)
Emmanuel Sanders (82)
Jordan Shipley (84)
Eric Decker (87)
Andre Roberts (88)
Armanti Edwards (89)
Taylor Price (90)
Austin Pettis (78)
Leonard Hankerson (79)
Vincent Brown (82)
Jerrel Jernigan (83)
DeVier Posey (68)
TJ Graham (69)
Mohamed Sanu (83)
TY Hilton (92)

Just look at that list. 51 players selected, and Mike Wallace is the only one that's ever played in a Pro Bowl. If I'm willing to stretch the definition of "good" to its breaking point, I can maybe come up with 17 guys on that list who aren't bad. But those are the odds that you're up against if you want to draft a WR.

Anyways, in short, I really wish fans would stop going nuts about the Pats' inability to draft WRs in rounds 2-3. Unless you're the Packers, shotgun approach with these guys is pretty much the only way to do it.

 

[Deus Irae]

To build on some of the other posts here, I think we can all agree that the best way to get a gamebreaking receiver without breaking your cap in the process is through the draft. But guess what? Drafting receivers is really hard. This isn't unique to Belichick. The Packers are probably the only team that can consistently nail it, and who even knows how much of that is just the Rodgers effect.

The following guys were first round picks between 2003 and 2012:

Charles Rogers (2)
Bryant Johnson (17)
Larry Fitzgerald (3)
Roy Williams (7)
Reggie Williams (9)
Lee Evans (13)
Michael Clayton (15)
Michael Jenkins (29)
Rashaun Woods (31)
Braylon Edwards (3)
Troy Williamson (7)
Mike Williams (10)
Matt Jones (21)
Mark Clayton (22)
Roddy White (27)
Santonio Holmes (25)
Calvin Johnson (2)
Ted Ginn (9)
Dwayne Bowe (23)
Robert Meacham (27)
Craig Davis (30)
Anthony Gonzalez (32)
Darrius Heyward-Bey (7)
Michael Crabtree (10)
Jeremy Maclin (19)
Percy Harvin (22)
Hakeem Nicks (29)
Kenny Britt (30)
Demaryius Thomas (22)
Dez Bryant (24)
AJ Green (4)
Julio Jones (6)
Jonathan Baldwin (26)
Justin Blackmon (5)
Michael Floyd (13)
Kendall Wright (20)
AJ Jenkins (30)

Of that group, I'd say it's too early to make a call on three guys -- Blackmon, Floyd, and Wright. Of the remaining 34 players, I'd say that Fitzgerald, White, Holmes, CJ, Nicks, Thomas, Bryant, Green, and Jones have been definite good picks. That's 9.

Of the 25 that are still left, I'd say that Braylon, Crabtree, Maclin, Bowe, Harvin, and maybe even Britt have become genuine assets, even if they were drafted too high in hindsight. That's another 6.

The bolded players from your list have all had some measure of NFL success. Also, Matt Jones had a cocaine issue more than a talent issue, Gonzalez started off strong before injuries derailed his career, and Meachem has been at least good enough to stick as a WR4. Also, I left off Michael Clayton because he was a rookie wonder, but he was a 30+ receptions guy in 4 of his first 5 seasons, which isn't great, but it's not a complete washout.

Also, some of these picks were jokes to start with, and obviously never deserving of their status as first round picks. DHB and Ginn are two excellent examples of this.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

Randy....Moss

 

[BradyFTW!]

The bolded players from your list have all had some measure of NFL success. Also, Matt Jones had a cocaine issue more than a talent issue, Gonzalez started off strong before injuries derailed his career, and Meachem has been at least good enough to stick as a WR4. Also, I left off Michael Clayton because he was a rookie wonder, but he was a 30+ receptions guy in 4 of his first 5 seasons, which isn't great, but it's not a complete washout.

Also, some of these picks were jokes to start with, and obviously never deserving of their status as first round picks. DHB and Ginn are two excellent examples of this.

If the Pats used a first round pick and got someone like Michael Clayton or Robert Meachem, let alone using a top 10 pick on Braylon or Roy Williams, pretty much everyone here would consider that guy a bust.

If the argument is that a first-round WR will probably have some measure of NFL success, then that's definitely true. After all, in the last few years that's been true of 12 out of 15 picks. But that's not how anyone really evaluates first round picks, and for good reason. If we're living in a world where Braylon Edwards was a good #3 overall pick, then it's not going to be easy to find bad picks.

For example, look at first-round QBs from 2003-2012:

Carson Palmer (1)
Byron Leftwich (7)
Kyle Boller (19)
Rex Grossman (22)
Eli Manning (1)
Philip Rivers (4)
Ben Roethlisberger (11)
JP Losman (22)
Alex Smith (1)
Aaron Rodgers (24)
Vince Young (3)
Matt Leinart (10)
Jay Cutler (11)
JaMarcus Russell (1)
Brady Quinn (22)
Matt Ryan (3)
Joe Flacco (18)
Matt Stafford (1)
Mark Sanchez (5)
Josh Freeman (17)
Sam Bradford (1)
Tim Tebow (25)
Cam Newton (1)
Jake Locker (8)
Blaine Gabbert (10)
Christian Ponder (12)
Andrew Luck (1)
Robert Griffin III (2)
Ryan Tannehill (8)
Brandon Weeden (22)

That's 30 picks, and Palmer, Manning, Rivers, Roethlisberger, Rodgers, Cutler, Ryan, Flacco, Stafford, Newton, Luck, and RG3 have all been definite hits, with the Jury still being out on Tannehill. That's over under half, which fits the narrative that QBs have an unusually high first round bust rate. But once you move the goalpost to "has achieved some measure of NFL success", the following guys make it as well: Grossman, Smith, Freeman, Bradford, Tebow, Tannehill, and Locker. Suddenly, about two thirds of first round QBs are hits.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

I agree that the team needs at least one stud WR that is 6'2 and can go up and get jump balls...gronk is great but is never on the field. Dobson is just a rookie and is just scratching the surface, but the WR issue should have been dealt with a few seasons ago after Moss was traded. I'm just talking big physical WRs, not the smaller slot receiver types or the purely sideline guys like lloyd.

 

[primetime]

Andre Johnson isn't on that list for some reason (he was picked right after Charles Rogers), but it doesn't really change the fact that the draft is largely a crapshoot, albeit one certain teams seem to do slightly better than others at. Receivers are difficult to draft.

 

[Deus Irae]

If the Pats used a first round pick and got someone like Michael Clayton or Robert Meachem, let alone using a top 10 pick on Braylon or Roy Williams, pretty much everyone here would consider that guy a bust.

I'm not going to break down every player, so I'll just take th last one on your list. Roy Williams had 1000+ yards in his only full season as a WR. His first four seasons were

817
687
1310
838

With Joey Harrington and Jon Kitna as his QBs.

Is that greatness? Hell no. But it's not a total bust, either.

As for Meachem and Clayton, you may note that I didn't list them in bold as having NFL success.