What's Edelman worth?

[supafly]

What you are seem to be saying is that the market is set by one team overpaying, and not even in the same year.

Where else would we get the idea that Mallett is worth a high second round pick?

 

[Brady6]

What you are seem to be saying is that the market is set by one team overpaying, and not even in the same year.

The 1 team that overpaid is the same team that will be trying to sign Edelman. When did Amendola become overpaid in your opinion? I could be mistaken but haven’t you stated several times in other threads that you see no issue with Amendola’s contract?

 

[Brady6]

I state that ALL of Cruz, Amendola, and Welker were overpaid at the slot position last year and that many GMs may be more inclined to think twice before doling out another higher priced deal, and you come back with some measurables from the scouting combine?

We all know that Edelman is a fine athletic talent, however his lack of blocking skills along with his very raw and unpolished route running still have a lot of work to be done. These are admissions from Julian himself.

I am not saying Edelman is Hines Ward but I disagree with your assessment that he is not a good run blocker, he has been used in favor of Welker and Amendola over the past 2 seasons in running situations and has been recognized for his solid play in the running game.

Another layer on Welker v. Edelman - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston
Patriots | Like Julian Edelman as a blocker? - NFL Hot off the Wire
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4YDJ5VP1EEQ

I think any player who came out of college as a QB is likely still polishing his WR game but that would imply that if he continues to work he could become even more effective which is a positive.

I don't mean this to be offensive, but you seem to have a very odd way of approaching contracts in their entirety, judging by the way that you constantly bring up Amendola's "5.7" million dollars (that he'll most likely never, ever see).

I suspect that you were one who was very surprised when Donovan McNabb signed his "100 million dollar" contract several years ago?

Most GMs aren't going to go by potential AAV in future years of what has basically become a backloaded deal that has an out, especially when it's more than obvious that this pact will never come to fruition. N.England obviously tries its best to restrain itself from these kinds of deals, but there have been more than plenty of examples where they've had no choice, and Amendola's pact would appear to be that way....unless of course, they envision him as their replacement in the slot as they did going into week #1 prior to his injury. If that's the case, it's a whole different ballgame again, and even then, they may still ask him to restructure.

Do you think that Amendola and Edelman go into negotiations looking for the highest cap figure they can get or the highest amount of physical money transferred from the team to them?

• 2013 Cash Received - $8,500,000
• 2014 Cash Received - $3,375,000

That totals $11,875,000 in cash received for Amendola so if he is cut after 2014 he earned an average of $5,937,500 per season over his 2 years with the Patriots. I do not think he or his agent give a rats ass how it shows up on the cap worksheet.

Are we talking about players worth or what players cap numbers should be?

 

[MassPats38]

Teams and agents like all other corporations look at comps in order to determine value, if you have a house that you want to sell the realtor will determine a list price by looking recent sales in the and around your neighborhood, in that same manner Edelman’s agent will look at recent signings for similar players to determine the contract he will be seeking. If you think Amendola at the same age, playing the same position and with the same number of season as pro at the time (Amendola in 2013 and Edelman in 2014) will not be taken into consideration you’re wrong and with all due respect you’re looking at things simplistically.

In negotiations, what you want/demand and what you will receive are very different concerns. By your real estate example, if the housing market tanks then what your neighbor's house may have been worth in a stronger market is of little value in determining what that same house sells for under the weaker market. One may have sold for $1 million, but if the market says $400k, then the seller can weep for the sunnier times but he will not see $1 million. The market rules. If you believe that is incorrect, then you can plainly find an occasion when the Pats paid more than the market would bear based on a prior contract. I suspect you will not.

Combine numbers are useless here. JE is not a pure receiver (ie., he is not comparable), while Amendola is. JE may get better, or he may not. While many talk about Amendola's injury history, JE has an equally bad track record with injuries (first full season in 5 years). JE historically has suffered from the dropsies. JE has the added benefit of excellent punt return abilities. What is that worth in the market? No clue. Is it worth $6 million per year. I seriously doubt it, at least for the Pats.

Make no mistake, JE had a great year. His production pretty much doubled what he did in total over his prior 4 years. But BB says he puts the best roster on the field on game day. If that is true, then why has JE been riding the pine prior to this year - spite? If Welker was deemed better on game day, then why would the Pats offer JE a comparable deal to him? IF JE got more action out of a sense of desperation rather than preference, that will not prompt the Pats to pay more. Brandon Lloyd got 130 targets to JE's 151 - how did that help Lloyd in his return to the Pats?

The Pats notoriously pay what they believe a player is worth and do not overpay. With veteran/returning Pats, they tend to do okay on those reads in terms of contract rates (with the exception of AH and possibly WW, depending on what he does next year). With non-Pats, they have had misses (Adalius Thomas, Ocho, maybe Amendola if he remains unhealthy, etc.). Unless JE is deemed worth a high contract, I expect he will be invited to test the market and return with a better deal, at which points the Pats will consider paying more. Given what happened post-2012, the fact he was the best of a weak group likely will not prompt a different approach. The fact JE took a one year deal suggests he is looking for more in his next deal. I fear he will get a team to offer more, at which point he may be gone.

 

[RIpats88]

I just dont see teams lining up to throw 5-6million$ at an injury prone slot WR who had his FIRST productive/healthy season.

maybe looking back at it, welker/amendola were overpaid compared to their production(so far amendola has not lived up to his contract, and welker may be cut by the broncos in the offseason)

so what makes that think anyone is going to go out there and throw 6million at edelman?? unless they are a desperate cr*ppy team

i think he'll go out to the market looking for that kind of money, but ultimately find teams wont pay him more than 2-3million$

 

[Brady6]

In negotiations, what you want/demand and what you will receive are very different concerns. By your real estate example, if the housing market tanks then what your neighbor's house may have been worth in a stronger market is of little value in determining what that same house sells for under the weaker market. One may have sold for $1 million, but if the market says $400k, then the seller can weep for the sunnier times but he will not see $1 million. The market rules. If you believe that is incorrect, then you can plainly find an occasion when the Pats paid more than the market would bear based on a prior contract. I suspect you will not.

Combine numbers are useless here. JE is not a pure receiver (ie., he is not comparable), while Amendola is. JE may get better, or he may not. While many talk about Amendola's injury history, JE has an equally bad track record with injuries (first full season in 5 years). JE historically has suffered from the dropsies. JE has the added benefit of excellent punt return abilities. What is that worth in the market? No clue. Is it worth $6 million per year. I seriously doubt it, at least for the Pats.

Make no mistake, JE had a great year. His production pretty much doubled what he did in total over his prior 4 years. But BB says he puts the best roster on the field on game day. If that is true, then why has JE been riding the pine prior to this year - spite? If Welker was deemed better on game day, then why would the Pats offer JE a comparable deal to him? IF JE got more action out of a sense of desperation rather than preference, that will not prompt the Pats to pay more. Brandon Lloyd got 130 targets to JE's 151 - how did that help Lloyd in his return to the Pats?

The Pats notoriously pay what they believe a player is worth and do not overpay. With veteran/returning Pats, they tend to do okay on those reads in terms of contract rates (with the exception of AH and possibly WW, depending on what he does next year). With non-Pats, they have had misses (Adalius Thomas, Ocho, maybe Amendola if he remains unhealthy, etc.). Unless JE is deemed worth a high contract, I expect he will be invited to test the market and return with a better deal, at which points the Pats will consider paying more. Given what happened post-2012, the fact he was the best of a weak group likely will not prompt a different approach. The fact JE took a one year deal suggests he is looking for more in his next deal. I fear he will get a team to offer more, at which point he may be gone.

I don’t think him and his agent will resign here for less than what Amendola is being paid. I could be wrong but NFL players are humans too, they’re competitive as hell and they have ego’s so I don’t think Edelman wants to be paid less than a player he is better than on the same team and honestly I cannot blame him. The Amendola contract screwed us over 2 fold because we’re stuck with it at least through 2014 and it is the last contract signed by a slot WR who shares many similarities to Edelman.

We have made some very poor contract decisions in the last few years and they’re catching up to us.

2013 Cap Hits ($100,000+)
Aaron Hernandez-$3,776,800
Brandon Lloyd-$3,500,000
Jonathan Fanene-$2,566,667
Chad Johnson-$1,583,334
Adrian Wilson-$1,333,333
Ras-I Dowling-$1,065,759
Leon Washington-$360,000
Jermaine Cunningham-$346,434
Daniel Fells-$333,333
Tyronne Green-$318,000
T.J. Moe-$290,666
Elvis Fisher-$290,500
Cory Grissom-$289,333
Quentin Hines-$288,333
Brice Schwab-$288,000
Luke Patterson-$288,000
Jabar Gaffney-$125,000
Spencer Larsen-$125,000
Brandon Ford-$102,647
Lavelle Hawkins-$100,000
Total-$17,371,139

14% of the salary cap was spent on players we got no contributions from and we’re unlikely to ever get contributions from in the future with the exception of maybe 1-2 (Moe, Grissom).

2014 Cap Hits ($100,000+)
Aaron Hernandez-$7,500,000
Ras-I Dowling-$589,382
Daniel Fells-$333,334
Total-$8,422,716

Right out the gate we’re in the hole almost $8.5 million and that isn’t even accounting for what I would deem as excessive cap hits:

Logan Mankins-$10,500,000
Danny Amendola-$4,575,000
Dan Connolly-$4,083,334
Stephen Gostkowski-$3,800,000
Kyle Arrington-$3,625,000
Isaac Sopoaga-$3,500,000
Adrian Wilson-$1,833,333
Tavon Wilson-$1,150,335
Jake Bequette-$709,950
Total-$45,376,952

Personally I don’t think this team has done the great job managing the cap that many believe, I think for years we’ve been restructuring Brady to clear space and that is likely no longer an option and all the robbing Peter to pay Paul moves are starting to catch up with us, and coupled with horrible decisions like the signings of Hernandez, Amendola, Arrington and the drafting of players like Wilson and Bequette who will actually cost us more to cut in 2014 we’re not in a great position especially with basically all our top players set to enter free agency in the next 1-3 years.

 

[Brady6]

I just dont see teams lining up to throw 5-6million$ at an injury prone slot WR who had his FIRST productive/healthy season.

maybe looking back at it, welker/amendola were overpaid compared to their production(so far amendola has not lived up to his contract, and welker may be cut by the broncos in the offseason)

so what makes that think anyone is going to go out there and throw 6million at edelman?? unless they are a desperate cr*ppy team

i think he'll go out to the market looking for that kind of money, but ultimately find teams wont pay him more than 2-3million$

We signed an injury prone slot receiver with no really good seasons last year to a 5 year $28.5 million contract so I would have to assume that there was a market for that type and we didn’t just give that contract to Amendola out of the goodness of our hearts.

Edelman played 12 games as a rookie he had – 43 catches, 403 yards, and 3 touchdowns. In the 4 games he played in place of Welker during Welker’s tenure Edelman had – 27 catches, 265 yards, and 2 touchdowns, if you project that over 16 games it equates to – 108 catches, 1060 yards, and 8 touchdowns. The case could easily be made that all Edelman needed was the opportunity and when Welker and Amendola failed he got it and did his thing.

 

[RIpats88]

We signed an injury prone slot receiver with no really good seasons last year to a 5 year $28.5 million contract so I would have to assume that there was a market for that type and we didn’t just give that contract to Amendola out of the goodness of our hearts.

Edelman played 12 games as a rookie he had – 43 catches, 403 yards, and 3 touchdowns. In the 4 games he played in place of Welker during Welker’s tenure Edelman had – 27 catches, 265 yards, and 2 touchdowns, if you project that over 16 games it equates to – 108 catches, 1060 yards, and 8 touchdowns. The case could easily be made that all Edelman needed was the opportunity and when Welker and Amendola failed he got it and did his thing.

i'm not saying he isnt worth what we paid amendola. in a perfect world we just switch the contracts.

but, i'm talking about THIS offseason. 2011 the pats offered welker 2years 16million. clearly that was the market for a slot receiver at that time. they franchised him for 11million. last year that went down to 6million$.

unless the market for Slot WR's stays the same. I dont see Edelman getting that money. Slot receivers are easier to come by in the NFL than outside receivers.

I think you are confusing what edelman is WOrth/WANTS with what he will GET. welker wanted/thought he was worth 10million$ ended up signing for 6million$

 

[Brady6]

i'm not saying he isnt worth what we paid amendola. in a perfect world we just switch the contracts.

but, i'm talking about THIS offseason. 2011 the pats offered welker 2years 16million. clearly that was the market for a slot receiver at that time. they franchised him for 11million. last year that went down to 6million$.

unless the market for Slot WR's stays the same. I dont see Edelman getting that money. Slot receivers are easier to come by in the NFL than outside receivers.

I think you are confusing what edelman is WOrth/WANTS with what he will GET. welker wanted/thought he was worth 10million$ ended up signing for 6million$

I don’t think either is worth $6 million a year but that is a monster we created unfortunately.

 

[SalemPats]

Edelman is in the drivers seat and he's earned it. Gronk is coming off a bad injury, hernandez is in jail, Amendola is a bust and our rookie WRs didn't show the promise that we wanted. Edelman had a great year finishing 4th in receptions in the NFL.

He knows we can't afford to lose him and some team will make a play for him. I would be happy to resign him for 5 million with a cap friendly number this year and more guaranteed money next year after we cut Amendola.

 

[Huckleberry1]

There's only one thing that we truly know for certain, and that is if they do sign Edelman the same people trashing Amendola now will be trashing Edelman if he gets hurt next season, and despite their support for such a deal now they will sh.t all over the Patriots for signing him if he does get hurt.

 

[Elijah T.]

Based on what the FO paid for Amendola, I just don't see them paying the same for Edelman....which is what somebody will offer Edelman, or pretty close to it.

Edelman was the face of our year this year, he epitomized the mentally tough attitude and approach of this team...but so did Amendola, albeit without the production. Amendola played through a torn groin which obviously, obviously, obviously limited his athleticism. But prior to the injury he was a beast in training camp...I remember the catch he made in the pre-season against the Buccaneers starters on the first drive. He released from the slot and ran a deep post catching a 40 yard TD pass-- he split the coverage and made a diving catch. Great burst and acceleration. It was in that game that he got injured initially, because he didn't play the rest of the pre-season. He came back in week one to have a monster game with the groin injury.

Without question Amendola is worth his weight as long as he can STAY HEALTHY.

But it's my belief that this team NEEDS to add a veteran outside receiver that has shown to be a proven player in the NFL for our 37 year old hamstrung Hall of Fame quarterback... Lord have mercy already...we can't keep getting by at the "X" position on spare parts and wet behind the ears 1st or 2nd year players. We all know that Belichick doesn't value the receiver position much, based on his history and some of the statements he's made in the past. Getting Moss was a gift from Oakland, it never would've happened normally. Before Thomas Dimitroff drafted Julio Jones he asked BB what he should do, BB told him that he should just wait and get Jonathan Baldwin later because he could "do the same things"...uhhh, no, not so much. Jabar Gaffney and Reche Caldwell can't do the same things as Hakeem Nicks...just can't.

So Edelman is worth what were paying Amendola. But we're paying Amendola already and I'm ok with that. All things being equal of course you take Edelman, but people need to realize it took Edelman a couple years with Brady to get where he's at....Amendola will get there as long as he's on the field.

 

[supafly]

That totals $11,875,000 in cash received for Amendola so if he is cut after 2014 he earned an average of $5,937,500 per season over his 2 years with the Patriots. I do not think he or his agent give a rats ass how it shows up on the cap worksheet.

Are we talking about players worth or what players cap numbers should be?

You seem to be stuck on this cash paid aspect, and like I said--unless you're actually Bob Kraft or his accountant posing as Brady6, I'm not sure why you'd remotely care?

Amendola cost 3.5m against the cap this year, and made a salary of 2m dollars, with another 1 million guaranteed when he was on the week #1 roster. I couldn't possibly care less what Bob Kraft had to subtract from his profit ledger to reel in Amendola in terms of cash.

For our perspective as fans, we should care about Amendola's cost as it pertains to the salary cap, which was less than 2.5% of the 2013 cap.

We'll have a much better perspective as to how much Amendola was a bust vs a decent signing when his contract is either restructured, he finishes it out here, or he's cut and moves onto another team. In the meantime, I agree that he underperformed in 2013 with his 4.5 catches per game over 12 games, but he also was our 2nd best receiver just the same.

It's not too heartbreaking to me that we paid our 2nd best receiver on the year, 3.5 million dollars in terms of the salary cap, but it is disappointing that he missed 4 games nonetheless. All we can do is hope that doesn't happen again, and if it does, his 4.5 catch average will go up to about 5.5 or a full 6.

We had these same exact conversations about Edelman the past several years, and how he couldn't stay healthy. Be careful how down you are on Amendola, as he may end up being our slot guy who receives 175 targets next year like Edelman did this year; especially if Edelman walks.

 

[Brady6]

You seem to be stuck on this cash paid aspect, and like I said--unless you're actually Bob Kraft or his accountant posing as Brady6, I'm not sure why you'd remotely care?



Amendola cost 3.5m against the cap this year, and made a salary of 2m dollars, with another 1 million guaranteed when he was on the week #1 roster.



For our perspective as fans, we should care about Amendola's cost as it pertains to the salary cap, not what kind of total money Bob Kraft had to subtract from his millions of dollars in profit for 2013.



We'll have a much better perspective as to how much Amendola was a bust vs a decent signing when his contract is either restructured, he finishes it out here, or he's cut and moves onto another team. In the meantime, I agree that he underperformed in 2013 with his 4.5 catches per game over 12 games, but he also was our 2nd best receiver just the same.



It's not too heartbreaking to me that we paid our 2nd best receiver on the year, 3.5 million dollars in terms of the salary cap, but it is disappointing that he missed 4 games nonetheless. All we can do is hope that doesn't happen again, and if it does, his 4.5 catch average will go up to about 5.5 or a full 6.

Sup were talking about what Edelman is worth here, not cap hits. I don't think Edelman's agent is going to say my client wants a $3.5 million cap figure to resign. I think he is going to ask for the cash.

 

[supafly]

Sup were talking about what Edelman is worth here, not cap hits. I don't think Edelman's agent is going to say my client wants a $3.5 million cap figure to resign. I think he is going to ask for the cash.

With that I definitely (obviously) agree, but how we got started with this conversation was your bringing up Amendola's value and how it relates to Edelman. We also need to remember that even though Edelman + his agent will not be taking the cap into effect, the 32 NFL GMs surely will.

I understand going by AAV to some degree, but I still doubt that Edelman sees the money that Amendola did. Danny Amendola lucked out in some regard, due to the fact that Belichick reportedly realized that the chances of coming to terms with Welker were low going into the legal tampering period that weekend.

The reports are that he did not want to gamble and miss out on both of them, which is likely why he appeared to have overpaid on him. The reality is that he did not overpay nearly as much as you are suggesting when you take the cap hits into play, which is my overall point.

If we're going just by AAV in a comparison of Edelman vs Amendola, I can obviously respect and agree with that, I just don't personally see Edelman commanding that kind of money. We'll have to see though, it's always possible that one of those teams with 30-40 million in cap space swoops in and overpays.

Common sense leads me to believe that Edelman knows that he is set up much better to succeed here than anywhere else, and that he also has to realize that he isn't on the same level as Welker/Amendola's contractual values after only one good season. There has to be a middle ground between that 700k and 6m AAV, which is very important on top of anything else. Welker saw that middle ground when he came here over his deal and had to earn that kind of money that he was paid last year, so the comparison of Edelman vs Amendola, should actually be Edelman vs Welker--since they were paid the same 6m AAV average.

Just because someone overpaid a bit for Amendola (or so it would appear at this moment), doesn't mean that it's going to happen again. That situation last offseason had some very odd circumstances where Belichick was forced to either have to take a risk on DA, or change up the offensive scheme altogether--particularly in a year knowing that he'd be rebuilding the WR corps with rookies. I don't think we're going to see another situation like that this season with any other NFL team.

 

[Brady6]

With that I definitely (obviously) agree, but how we got started with this conversation was your bringing up Amendola's value and how it relates to Edelman. We also need to remember that even though Edelman + his agent will not be taking the cap into effect, the 32 NFL GMs surely will.

I understand going by AAV to some degree, but I still doubt that Edelman sees the money that Amendola did. Danny Amendola lucked out in some regard, due to the fact that Belichick reportedly realized that the chances of coming to terms with Welker were low going into the legal tampering period that weekend.

The reports are that he did not want to gamble and miss out on both of them, which is likely why he appeared to have overpaid on him. The reality is that he did not overpay nearly as much as you are suggesting when you take the cap hits into play, which is my overall point.

If we're going just by AAV in a comparison of Edelman vs Amendola, I can obviously respect and agree with that, I just don't personally see Edelman commanding that kind of money. We'll have to see though, it's always possible that one of those teams with 30-40 million in cap space swoops in and overpays.

Common sense leads me to believe that Edelman knows that he is set up much better to succeed here than anywhere else, and that he also has to realize that he isn't on the same level as Welker/Amendola's contractual values after only one good season. There has to be a middle ground between that 700k and 6m AAV, which is very important on top of anything else. Welker saw that middle ground when he came here over his deal and had to earn that kind of money that he was paid last year, so the comparison of Edelman vs Amendola, should actually be Edelman vs Welker--since they were paid the same 6m AAV average.

Just because someone overpaid a bit for Amendola (or so it would appear at this moment), doesn't mean that it's going to happen again. That situation last offseason had some very odd circumstances where Belichick was forced to either have to take a risk on DA, or change up the offensive scheme altogether--particularly in a year knowing that he'd be rebuilding the WR corps with rookies. I don't think we're going to see another situation like that this season with any other NFL team.

I don’t disagree with the evaluation for Edelman I just don’t know what type of market he will have, Amendola was part of a much weaker UFA for WRs than we have this season but the problem is that Edelman likely offers more value to the Patriots than he does anyone else in the NFL at this time. I am sure they can structure Edelman in a manner in which he has a low cap # for year 1 and then it jumps in 2015 once we can either cut Amendola or restructure him. The combination of Amendola, Arrington and of course Hernandez is burdening our salary cap though and we need to make wiser decisions moving forward.

 

[Brady6]

But prior to the injury he was a beast in training camp...I remember the catch he made in the pre-season against the Buccaneers starters on the first drive. He released from the slot and ran a deep post catching a 40 yard TD pass-- he split the coverage and made a diving catch. Great burst and acceleration. It was in that game that he got injured initially, because he didn't play the rest of the pre-season. He came back in week one to have a monster game with the groin injury.

Are you referring to this play?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ndEbAKvBvhM

That was a 26 yard touchdown pass and Amendola basically ran untouched and uncovered down the middle of the field. Personally I didn’t find it to be too impressive against a 4-12 team in the preseason, if you remember Zach Sudfeld looked like Rob Gronkowski in that game.

 

[Huckleberry1]

This is really getting obnoxious. This was supposed to be a thread about re-signing Edelman but now it has been hijacked and turned into yet another Amendola thread. It's frigging ridiculous.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

This is really getting obnoxious. This was supposed to be a thread about re-signing Edelman but now it has been hijacked and turned into yet another Amendola thread. It's frigging ridiculous.

amendola has his own thread (many)...i don't get it

 

[Huckleberry1]

amendola has his own thread (many)...i don't get it

he has multiple threads but a certain poster simply cannot shut his piehole about Amendola and has to repeat himself over and over and over and over and over and over and over......................... and is now migrating from thread to thread because the actual Amendola threads have run their course and those with any sense of reality have realized that there is zero chance that Amendola is going anywhere.