What’s the cap situation moving forward?

[Deus Irae]

Under Bill Belichick, the Patriots have generally done the following:

1. Use the top end of the draft for adding some combination of elite talent and highest positional value
2. Use the middle of the draft for adding players at lesser valued positions, and for athletic gambles
3. Use the bottom of the draft for depth pieces and longer term projects
4. Use free agency to fill holes either seen in the previous season or inevitable due to their own FA losses
5. Use the trade route for any, and all, or the above

So, since this is mostly about the draft at this point in the thread, let's take a look at how they've done lately (Say, post Gronk/Hernandez), for about the 5 millionth time. Let's limit it to the top 2 rounds, as that's where this team has generally mined for its core youth.

First round picks:

2011 - Solder (Above average player at high end position, but not worth keeping for the money)
2012 - Hightower (Elite player at high end position, worth the re-singing though injuries may make him the next Mayo)
2012 - Jones (High end player at a high end position, but not worth it to the team to keep for his entire rookie deal)
2014 - Easley (Bust)
2015 - Brown (Disappointment and, yes, arguably a bust)
2018 - Wynn (IR, so too soon to tell)
2018 - Michel (oft-injured, so too soon to be certain, but has looked promising as at least a better than average RB1 option)

Due to a combination of NFL penalties and trades, that's been it from the first round.

Second round picks:

2011 - Vereen (Decent, but overrated by Patsfans.com, and not retained)
2011 - Dowling (Bust)
2012 - Wilson (Bust)
2013 - Dobson (Bust)
2013 - Collins (High talent, low execution and development, he was dumped on Cleveland)
2014 - JAG (Excellent prospect, who simply ran up against the G.O.A.T. in positional competition)
2015 - Richards (Bust)
2016 - Jones (Bust)
2018 - Dawson (Injured, and a rookie, but the high DNP rate for a 2nd round pick is not a good start)

Much less than a 50% hit rate, and not a single high end player at a needed position.




That is obviously not "what he needs out of the draft, and what the best franchise in the nfl needs".

 

[Ochmed Jones]

I know bb is really high on “value” picks, which is why I can not figure out why he overdrafts guys in the second round.

We have two second rounders this year and he needs to hit on both in order to restock our roster with more talent.

 

[maineman209]

I know bb is really high on “value” picks, which is why I can not figure out why he overdrafts guys in the second round.

We have two second rounders this year and he needs to hit on both in order to restock our roster with more talent.

I think BB drafts prospects who he and Caserio (et al) have highly rated when he needs to based on what they know about what other teams are after them.

If no other team is after the prospect, he waits. If they know that other teams have the same prospect rated highly, he doesn't.

There's no "overdrafting" involved.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

There's no "overdrafting" involved.

Isn’t taking a player earlier than they are rated because you are afraid a team picking after you will take him, the definition of over drafting?

Take Richards for example. A guy with a 5th round grade, we take him in the second and it blows up in our face!

If we stay true to our board, we will hit on more 2nd rounders than not.

 

[Ring 6]

In all honesty, the Pats actually did violate a league rule in the "Spygate" thing by continuing to tape games from the sideline after it was technically prohibited before the start of the 2006 season. The main reason that it turned into a big deal (and a big penalty) is that the Pats violated the rule openly (though not necessarily without reason).

And there was nothing "secret" or spy-like about it.

It also had nothing to do with "stealing defensive signals".

The rule specifically said for use in that game, which they never did.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Isn’t taking a player earlier than they are rated because you are afraid a team picking after you will take him, the definition of over drafting?

Take Richards for example. A guy with a 5th round grade, we take him in the second and it blows up in our face!

If we stay true to our board, we will hit on more 2nd rounders than not.

Bill had Richards with 2nd rd grade as they don't subscribe to other ranking Svcs.

If you want to bash how they evaluate and project college talent that is different

 

[ralmat55]

Isn’t taking a player earlier than they are rated because you are afraid a team picking after you will take him, the definition of over drafting?.

Not when Bill Belichick is doing it. If anyone else did it, yes it would be.

 

[maineman209]

If this PFF article is right that Flowers' AAV will be at least what Danielle Hunter got (14.4m), and as high as what Mack got (23.5m), he's likely as good as gone. While those numbers seem high, there are teams out there with more cap space than they can efficiently use who are looking for immediate impact players.

Trey Flowers ends contract year on high note, bound for massive pay day | NFL Analysis | Pro Football Focus

Synopsis of the PFF piece:

1) Flowers is among the best DEs at defending the run and getting pressure. Here are our numbers that "prove" that.
2) Therefore, we - in our unique prognosticative brilliance - conclude that Flowers will be paid somewhere between what Hunter is making ($14.4M AAV) and what Mack is making ($23.5M) .... or even MORE THAN MACK!!

Well, f**k. Nobody else has ever said THAT before.
(Except for a few dozen posters here for the past year or more.)

Personally, I haven't broken down the roster of the other 31 teams to know which teams (for whom Flowers is a scheme fit) may actually be able to afford and/or be willing to offer a Hunter-level contract, so I'm not sure how many bidders there are likely to be. The Pats can certainly afford a Hunter-level contract for Flowers, and may well be willing to go there. And Flowers may well be willing to take that, rather than chase big bucks elsewhere.

And, I'm not going to use Mack's contract as any kind of benchmark, mainly because the Bears have always been extremely stupid about the cap. It's almost as if Tannenbaum is running sh it over there. Seriously, if they want/need to cut Mack before June 1st 2021, they're f**ked.

 

[maineman209]

Isn’t taking a player earlier than they are rated because you are afraid a team picking after you will take him, the definition of over drafting?

Take Richards for example. A guy with a 5th round grade, we take him in the second and it blows up in our face!

If we stay true to our board, we will hit on more 2nd rounders than not.

Kiper grades prospects by round. McShay grades prospects by round. Jeremiah does. Almost all media analysts do. "This guy is only a 5th-round talent."

No team in the league does it that way. BB certainly doesn't. There's so much direct evidence of that fact that it's really surprising that anyone still thinks he does.

Also, those media analysts really have no real clue as to what teams are seriously interested in what prospects. If any of them correctly match half the prospects that are actually taken in the top 15 spots with the teams that select them, they're having a great day. After the top 15, they're just throwing sh it at the wall.

The Pats have their ratings that have virtually nothing to do with "round".

The Pats also have a better idea of what teams are seriously interested in the same prospects because they're actually in the game, not just talking about it for an audience that largely know nothing about football.

There is no "overdrafting" involved.

 

[maineman209]

Bill had Richards with 2nd rd grade as they don't subscribe to other ranking Svcs.

If you want to bash how they evaluate and project college talent that is different

I'm pretty sure that BB and Caserio have access to the reports from both scouting co-ops and that they study them, if for no other reason that to get feel for how teams that primarily rely on those reports are being mislead about certain prospects. But the Pats have their own guys they rely on.

 

[RobertWeathers]

I'm pretty sure that BB and Caserio have access to the reports from both scouting co-ops and that they study them, if for no other reason that to get feel for how teams that primarily rely on those reports are being mislead about certain prospects. But the Pats have their own guys they rely on.

I'm sure they have access to it. No question but as you said they come to their own conclusions

 

[Deus Irae]

Isn’t taking a player earlier than they are rated because you are afraid a team picking after you will take him, the definition of over drafting?

Take Richards for example. A guy with a 5th round grade, we take him in the second and it blows up in our face!

If we stay true to our board, we will hit on more 2nd rounders than not.

When people claim that the Patriots don't overdraft, you can safely dismiss their comments. The claim that the Patriots don't reach a/k/a overdraft is an absurdity. Every team overdrafts at times. The problem, as far as the Patriots go, is that they often overdraft as high as the second round, which is something that should be a rarity, not a biannual happening.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Kiper grades prospects by round. McShay grades prospects by round. Jeremiah does. Almost all media analysts do. "This guy is only a 5th-round talent."

No team in the league does it that way. BB certainly doesn't. There's so much direct evidence of that fact that it's really surprising that anyone still thinks he does.

Also, those media analysts really have no real clue as to what teams are seriously interested in what prospects. If any of them correctly match half the prospects that are actually taken in the top 15 spots with the teams that select them, they're having a great day. After the top 15, they're just throwing sh it at the wall.

The Pats have their ratings that have virtually nothing to do with "round".

The Pats also have a better idea of what teams are seriously interested in the same prospects because they're actually in the game, not just talking about it for an audience that largely know nothing about football.

There is no "overdrafting" involved.

I think you may need to read/learn what goes into putting together a team’s board in the war room. Once you understand how a board is built, then it may be easier for you to see how “projections” that bb makes is nothing more than overdrafting!

 

[PatsFan2]

When people claim that the Patriots don't overdraft, you can safely dismiss their comments. The claim that the Patriots don't reach a/k/a overdraft is an absurdity. Every team overdrafts at times. The problem, as far as the Patriots go, is that they often overdraft as high as the second round, which is something that should be a rarity, not a biannual happening.

Tavon Wilson - Geno Gruesome and *Ahem* Jordan Richards come to mind.

 

[Joker]

meh...sometimes you get the bull...sometimes you get the horns...we just made the playoffs for the 10th straight time...that means drafting near the bottom on every round for 10 straight years, minus the occasional foray up in the draft.

 

[maineman209]

I think you may need to read/learn what goes into putting together a team’s board in the war room. Once you understand how a board is built, then it may be easier for you to see how “projections” that bb makes is nothing more than overdrafting!

I have. A lot. And for other teams, too.

If you see it differently, fine. But the whole, "This guy is a first-round talent! But this other guy is only a late-round talent," is just more media BS.

 

[Biffins]

Miguel will certainly have more accurate info , but based on a projected cap of 190m and ~170m in projected commitments I'm expecting a number of restructures/cuts. Gronk, DMC, Gilmore, Brady, Allen, High, Cannon and Clayborn should all be impacted one way or another.

Pats should have enough room to make some not-quite seismic but quality moves.

New England Patriots Salary Cap Calculator | Over The Cap

Gronk better not be whining about being underpaid anymore with his underwhelming season. He needs to hit the weight room and lift some weight and stop this bands BS. I saw plenty of time him being pushed back or overwhelmed while both blocking or trying to push the receivers away. He has lost strength whether he wants to admit it or not. That or could be just age or some injury I don't know about.

 

[Biffins]

It’s easy to have cap room by dumping top players. But then you need to replace them and replacing gronk and McCourty will probably cost more than they cost.

Replacing Gronk's production for this year for less than $10m won't be hard. Question is how much less and whether Gronk accepts that number himself.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Gronk better not be whining about being underpaid anymore with his underwhelming season. He needs to hit the weight room and lift some weight and stop this bands BS. I saw plenty of time him being pushed back or overwhelmed while both blocking or trying to push the receivers away. He has lost strength whether he wants to admit it or not. That or could be just age or some injury I don't know about.

I think it's age, wear and tear, injury and pacing himself.

I'm 99% sure hes done after this season.

 

[Biffins]

Looking at the over the cap numbers, I think Gronk, Allen, and Hightower are all looking at some kind of restructuring this off season. Claybourn is likely to just be gone, imo, so I doubt their will be any restructure needed.

I doubt Brady's situation will change. He has underperformed his cap number this season, but I don't think there will be a need, since he's OUTperformed his number the previous 17 years.

I don't understand why Gilmore is on your list. If anything he deserves a raise.

Cannon, when healthy is well worth his current salary, imo. That is going to be a very good OL, and we really should keep "the band together" The price on Trent Brown, has only been going up this season. If Wynn develops to their liking, you can revisit the Cannon situation after next season.

So based on the "over the cap numbers the Pats will have 20MM to spend, and maybe another $10 in cuts, retirements, and restructures that can easily be had. Unfortunately, $30MM in cap space doesn't go very far these days, especially when you have a few guys who will need to get paid (like Brown).

That being said, the Pats will be in position to sign at least one A-list FA next season, but will likely sign a 2 or 3 B-listers instead.

Don't forget that the Pats currently have 11 draft picks. It could be that BB is going to try and start the 4th iteration of this run on the fly, much like he did in 2010. THIS upcoming draft is going to be critical, especially in rebuilding the front 7.

Brady has ABSOLUTELY not underperformed what he's being paid this season. The focus on the cap number is such bs. Brady gets signed for cheap contracts and then asked to restructure to keep his cashflow the same but push cap number to outer years to help the team. So now the cap number gets inflated from prior underpaid years and we're comparing his $22m cap number as if he's getting paid that amount every year. His last 2 year contract was close