What’s the cap situation moving forward?

[Brewskies]

There's nothing Kraft could have done. He could -- and should -- have acted with a lot more indignation and saber-rattling and less Goodell azz-kissing, but in the end there was nothing he could have done.

If he did what you suggested the team might not have lost 2 top draft choices.

 

[Deus Irae]

excellent point made on mobile QBs. the league trend will only go up from here and the Pats struggle defending that type of offense. They need to infuse a lot of speed on the defensive side of the ball but i am not sure BB is willing to do that.

Mobile quarterbacks are fine, right up until the moment they become non-mobile QBs due to injury. Meanwhile, history continues to show that the likeliest way to win Super Bowls is not via the highly mobile QB, but via the elite (or on a hot streak) pocket guy.

 

[maineman209]

If he did what you suggested the team might not have lost 2 top draft choices.

In all honesty, the Pats actually did violate a league rule in the "Spygate" thing by continuing to tape games from the sideline after it was technically prohibited before the start of the 2006 season. The main reason that it turned into a big deal (and a big penalty) is that the Pats violated the rule openly (though not necessarily without reason).

And there was nothing "secret" or spy-like about it.

It also had nothing to do with "stealing defensive signals".

 

[203Pat]

there can be no discussion if you think that White is just a "solid player".

Analyses of drafting by those NOT posting here do NOT agree with your analysis. We pick at the end of every draft. Belichick does just fine. Expecting a stud a year when picking in the 30's is simply unrealistic. Thuney was a fine pick. The idea is to get player capable of holding their own on a championship team after year of development.

The goal is 2 players a year who are capable of starting in their second year. You ignore players like Michel and Wynn (and Bentley). All are starter quality.
===========
IMHO, Belichick finds it difficult to find value from 30-100 (1st 3 rounds) at WR and CB. It takes time to fit in to our system. These positions are best filled (by us) by late flyers, UDFA's, free agents and trades.
======
So, it is a matter of perspective. For Belichick, there is a role for the draft in the acquisition process. It is but one way of securing players. He makes mistakes. He has wins. Curiously, if Belichick were to do worse, we might agains get to pick up high and get players like McGinist, Seymour and Wilfork.
======

White is a solid role player. He is a great receiving back but not an average runner. He does what the team needs him to do very well but he is not a superstar.

Bill has done fine recently? Picking late in the first round and the second round should warrant solid starters to Pro Bowlers /borderline Pro Bowlers.

First 2 picks in 2017: Rivers and Garcia, busts.

First 2 rounds in 2016: Cyrus, complete bust. Thuney solid starter and Jacoby who was an odd pick and lasted only one year before being shipped out of town.

2015 our first 3 picks were busts (Brown, Richards, Grissom)

2014 one of the biggest busts Bill ever picked in Easley followed up with Jimmy who we never maximized value on and then Stork in the 4th who was solid till injury.

So in 4 years of early(ish) round draft picks we ended up with 1 consistent starter in Thuney, 1 short time starter in Stork and one rotational under achieving D-tackle. That is not great drafting.

Like I stated earlier I am not going to judge the 2018 class as they could very well end up to be studs and end Bill's drafting drought. I think as a whole Bill is a good drafter but since he has such a large sample size there will be some lean years. It just so happened that the lean years have been strung together.

 

[203Pat]

David Andrews?
Malcolm Brown?
Malcom Butler?
JC Jackson?
Jonathan Jones?
Sony Michel?
Trey Flowers?
Adam Butler?

Even Stork did well until he got his head banged up. Cardona and Garrapolo filled needs on the team very well.

Deatrich Wise hasn't sucked.

And don't begin to discount the 2018 draft class. Michel is a very very good runner. Wynn was going to win LT before he got hurt. Don't know about Dawson yet, of course, but Bentley looked pretty good, and Jackson is a steal. I wouldn't even count out Crossen yet. If Christian Sam can become anything good, that's a helluva draft class.

Sure, you can go and pull the "Richard Sherman" or "Tyreek Hill" cards - there are some big hits in the later rounds. But drafting at the bottom every year, having picks stolen, having to try to hold FA's after they've performed on the big stage (SB teams have their FA values increased), I think they've done pretty well.

Easley was a gamble, and not a good one, IMO. Tuitt was on the board...aargghhhhh.

Jordan Richards busted.

Cyrus Jones melted.

So they've made a few mistakes, which is pretty much standard fare in NFL drafting.

Malcolm Brown is a bust. If he was a mid-rounder? Yes solid pick but for a first rounder he hasn't done much. I think the team declining the 5th year option speaks to what they think of Brown.

Butler wasn't technically a draft pick but still a good job by Bill to bring him in so I will give him credit for that one. As for JC Jackson he looks like he could end up even better than Butler but it is still way too early to put him in any category.

Trey Flowers I already mentioned as a stud in my previous post and as for Michel he looks like a good RB but nothing that warrants a first rounder. It is still early and he could continue to develop but I don't see any burst or explosion or anything that makes him elite and if you're a first round RB I think you should be close to elite.

The other guys you mentioned are decent starters or role players but not difference makers. If you want to hang your hat on David Andrews or Johnathan Jones then by all means they're decent players who would be in the mix to be starting or see significant playing time on most teams. But if you're saying that these guys have made any of these recent drafts then that is another story. I am sorry but I hold Bill and this team to a higher standard than the recent drafts. Four years of drafts (once again not counting this years yet) and ending up with two guys that are Pro Bowl potential? That is not good drafting.

 

[Zuma]

White is a solid role player. He is a great receiving back but not an average runner. He does what the team needs him to do very well but he is not a superstar.

Bill has done fine recently? Picking late in the first round and the second round should warrant solid starters to Pro Bowlers /borderline Pro Bowlers.

First 2 picks in 2017: Rivers and Garcia, busts.

First 2 rounds in 2016: Cyrus, complete bust. Thuney solid starter and Jacoby who was an odd pick and lasted only one year before being shipped out of town.

2015 our first 3 picks were busts (Brown, Richards, Grissom)

2014 one of the biggest busts Bill ever picked in Easley followed up with Jimmy who we never maximized value on and then Stork in the 4th who was solid till injury.

So in 4 years of early(ish) round draft picks we ended up with 1 consistent starter in Thuney, 1 short time starter in Stork and one rotational under achieving D-tackle. That is not great drafting.

Like I stated earlier I am not going to judge the 2018 class as they could very well end up to be studs and end Bill's drafting drought. I think as a whole Bill is a good drafter but since he has such a large sample size there will be some lean years. It just so happened that the lean years have been strung together.

 

[203Pat]

Ahh yes not thinking this team is perfect in every way = negative.

 

[50-yard-line]

Malcolm Brown is a bust. If he was a mid-rounder? Yes solid pick but for a first rounder he hasn't done much. I think the team declining the 5th year option speaks to what they think of Brown.

Brown's been up and down, but he's been an affordable contributor on the team for 4 years. He's started 50 games for the Pats in four years. That's not a bust.

Go through the top-rated DL in the league and note their draft position. Guys like Aaron Donald and Leonard Williams and Ndamukong Suh and Sheldon Richardson don't last past the middle of the 1st round.

Look at the draft with Brown - he was the third-ranked DT coming out (and 2 of the top 4 were NTs). Leonard Williams was grabbed early by the Jets, then the #2 ranked DT was grabbed at #12...his name was Danny Shelton.

The Pats took Brown at 32. I didn't hear anyone complaining about that pick at the time - all I heard were shouts of joy that the Colts had screwed up and grabbed a receiver at #29!

Of the three behind Brown, only Eddie Goldman's still with the team who drafted him. The Pats will end with between 50-60 games STARTED out of their DT for a total cost of under $8 million. And in the four years he's been holding that spot, they've been to 3 Superbowls.

(By the way, that Colts receiver was Phillip Dorsett.)

 

[maineman209]

Brown's been up and down, but he's been an affordable contributor on the team for 4 years. He's started 50 games for the Pats in four years. That's not a bust.

Go through the top-rated DL in the league and note their draft position. Guys like Aaron Donald and Leonard Williams and Ndamukong Suh and Sheldon Richardson don't last past the middle of the 1st round.

Look at the draft with Brown - he was the third-ranked DT coming out (and 2 of the top 4 were NTs). Leonard Williams was grabbed early by the Jets, then the #2 ranked DT was grabbed at #12...his name was Danny Shelton.

The Pats took Brown at 32. I didn't hear anyone complaining about that pick at the time - all I heard were shouts of joy that the Colts had screwed up and grabbed a receiver at #29!

Of the three behind Brown, only Eddie Goldman's still with the team who drafted him. The Pats will end with between 50-60 games STARTED out of their DT for a total cost of under $8 million. And in the four years he's been holding that spot, they've been to 3 Superbowls.

(By the way, that Colts receiver was Phillip Dorsett.)

Grady Jarrett?

 

[mgteich]

this

Belichick has gotten what he needs out of the draft, and what the best franchise in the nfl needs.

That's just not good enough for some posters.

Some here think that the team is terrible and in need of a major overhaul, sending away all our top players other than Brady and Gilmore. The rest of world thinks that we have a team capable of winning the SB, this year and next. The bettors have us a the 4th most likely to win this year. If I check for the early line on next year, I'm suspect that the patriots are in the top 5.

So, it a matter of perspective. Some folks have standards that Belichick simply doesn't meet in securing players in free agency, in the draft or in any other way.

For me, I'm thankful for having the best franchise ever to root for, and the best owner, and the best coach, and the best QB. I'm OK being in the AFC championship every year for a decade. Kraft will always keep this franchise competitive. For some, that isn't enough. But then, most of those fans will be gone after the first losing season, or when Brady retires.

Brown's been up and down, but he's been an affordable contributor on the team for 4 years. He's started 50 games for the Pats in four years. That's not a bust.

 

[50-yard-line]

Butler wasn't technically a draft pick but still a good job by Bill to bring him in so I will give him credit for that one. As for JC Jackson he looks like he could end up even better than Butler but it is still way too early to put him in any category.

Trey Flowers I already mentioned as a stud in my previous post and as for Michel he looks like a good RB but nothing that warrants a first rounder. It is still early and he could continue to develop but I don't see any burst or explosion or anything that makes him elite and if you're a first round RB I think you should be close to elite.

The other guys you mentioned are decent starters or role players but not difference makers. If you want to hang your hat on David Andrews or Johnathan Jones then by all means they're decent players who would be in the mix to be starting or see significant playing time on most teams. But if you're saying that these guys have made any of these recent drafts then that is another story. I am sorry but I hold Bill and this team to a higher standard than the recent drafts. Four years of drafts (once again not counting this years yet) and ending up with two guys that are Pro Bowl potential? That is not good drafting.

UFA's brought in ARE part of the draft. Would you rank BB higher if he had grabbed Butler or Jackson in the 2nd instead of Cyrus Jones or Jordan Richards? What's the difference (except that the 2nd rounders cost more $$$$)?

And look again - Michel is in rare air for YA and yards as a rookie. He's going to be a great NFL player for years to come. He's got 1 more carry than Alvin Kamara and 2 less yards. He's a rookie - he's going to improve. He's 14th in the league in rushing, and that's splitting time with two other backs, and with 3 games missed to injury, and two other games where he left in the first quarter...and 4.5YA isn't exactly terrible.

You could do a lot worse than J Jones as your 3rd corner (or 4th now, as Jackson ascends), and a lot worse than David Andrews as your center - Brady loves him for a reason. In fact, almost entirely through the draft, the Patriots have quietly built one of the youngest and best OLs in the league, and that's not even counting Wynn, who looks like he's going to be a really good tackle with the speed and leverage to neuter those outside speed rushers. If they lose Brown, their tackle-to-tackle line next year will be entirely made up of draft picks, with the oldest being 30. That ain't bad.

 

[203Pat]

Brown's been up and down, but he's been an affordable contributor on the team for 4 years. He's started 50 games for the Pats in four years. That's not a bust.

Go through the top-rated DL in the league and note their draft position. Guys like Aaron Donald and Leonard Williams and Ndamukong Suh and Sheldon Richardson don't last past the middle of the 1st round.

Look at the draft with Brown - he was the third-ranked DT coming out (and 2 of the top 4 were NTs). Leonard Williams was grabbed early by the Jets, then the #2 ranked DT was grabbed at #12...his name was Danny Shelton.

The Pats took Brown at 32. I didn't hear anyone complaining about that pick at the time - all I heard were shouts of joy that the Colts had screwed up and grabbed a receiver at #29!

Of the three behind Brown, only Eddie Goldman's still with the team who drafted him. The Pats will end with between 50-60 games STARTED out of their DT for a total cost of under $8 million. And in the four years he's been holding that spot, they've been to 3 Superbowls.

(By the way, that Colts receiver was Phillip Dorsett.)

If they were dead set on drafting a DT then I guess they got the best DT they could get there. Obviously hindsight is 20/20 but I wouldn't think Bill would ever go into a draft saying "we need to draft X position at 32. He hasn't been terrible as he has started many games but he hasn't been good. They seem to try and replace him as a starter (or at least get someone to take some snaps from him) quite a bit by signing Branch and trading for Shelton. He was billed coming in as someone who could play both nose and traditional D-tackle and maybe he can just not too well.

 

[50-yard-line]

Grady Jarrett?

Seventh one picked, 7th rated, too - he's had a career very similar to Brown's.

 

[maineman209]

Seventh one picked, 7th rated, too - he's had a career very similar to Brown's.

It's worth noting that Goldman signed a 4-year extension with the Bears on Sept. 7th this year, worth up to $42M, with about $17M guaranteed.

I'm guessing that Jarrett gets a hefty chunk of change on his second contract, too.

 

[50-yard-line]

If they were dead set on drafting a DT then I guess they got the best DT they could get there. Obviously hindsight is 20/20 but I wouldn't think Bill would ever go into a draft saying "we need to draft X position at 32. He hasn't been terrible as he has started many games but he hasn't been good. They seem to try and replace him as a starter (or at least get someone to take some snaps from him) quite a bit by signing Branch and trading for Shelton. He was billed coming in as someone who could play both nose and traditional D-tackle and maybe he can just not too well.

Their position of greatest need at that time was DT, particularly after the Easley bust. When you've got such a solid and good roster - one that gets you deep into the playoffs each year, well...BB's philosophy seems to be "who can make the team?" whether it's through special teams, like Cardona, or to serve as the backup - Brisset and Jimmy G - he's filling very few holes in his roster by draft time, and very few he wants to fill with a rookie.

The problem right now is that all of the Pats leaders - Hightower, Chung, McCourty(s) on D, Brady, Jules and Gronk on O - are getting old. A healthy Bentley (and hopefully Sam) will help at LB, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the Pats go there again in the draft. Van Noy, traded for a mid-round pick, has become pretty damned good, too.

Obviously, and particularly if they lose Flowers, they're going heavy changes on the D-line this year. They'll probably need to find two.

They need a #1 WR. Maybe it's a guy on the PS now, maybe someone they bring in through FA (doubt it'll be a draft pick). Still, Brady's had a bad year and Gronk had has a really bad year, and yet, look, they're 8th in the league in scoring.

If I had to guess why they look so vulnerable this year, I'd put it mostly on Brady - the eye test tells me he's bailing early on plays, missing wide open receivers (Hogan, repeatedly) and throwing off his back foot a lot. A few times, it's looked to me like he's trying to not get hurt, which makes me believe that he is (knee). He really turned downward after that knee brace incident in Miami.

Still, except for 7 seconds in that Miami game, they'd be playing as huge favorites for the #1 seed, and if Pitt and the Titans don't make the playoffs (and I don't think they will), they've beaten every playoff team they've faced.

 

[50-yard-line]

It's worth noting that Goldman signed a 4-year extension with the Bears on Sept. 7th this year, worth up to $42M, with about $17M guaranteed.

I'm guessing that Jarrett gets a hefty chunk of change on his second contract, too.

I was surprised the Pats didn't pick up Brown's extension, but then, he's not having a great year, whereas Goldman seems to be coming on (playing next to Hicks isn't hurting him).

 

[maineman209]

I was surprised the Pats didn't pick up Brown's extension, but then, he's not having a great year, whereas Goldman seems to be coming on (playing next to Hicks isn't hurting him).

Yeah, I wondered about the Brown 5th-year-option thing, too. At the time it had to be done, way back in the spring, I wondered if they might not pick up Shelton's. Glad now that they didn't. Anyway, the option-year salaries for each of them would've been around $7.9M, IIRC.

Anyway, it seems to me that Brown's role in the Pats' DL schemes is substantially different (far less "dynamic") from what Goldman is asked to do in Chicago, and from what Jarrett is asked to do in Atlanta. And, based on what Brown did in college, I'm pretty sure that he wouldn't have fit those schemes well.

Brown's been solid in his Pats role, IMHO, though not exceptional. I think that the Pats could offer him a Lawrence Guy type contract - 3 years at $3.25M-$3.5M AAV (~$10M total) - if they intend to stick with their current DL scheme. I don't think Brown will get any more than that on the open market.

It's difficult to know, though, what the Pats may be looking for this season in terms of DL personnel. Before the 2018 draft, they had contact with just as many prospects in the 6035-6050/~295lb range (Guy, Butler, Kamalu) as they did with prospects in the 6020-6040/260lb-280lb range (Flowers, et al) - about 9 from each group. And then they didn't draft any of either type.

They really only looked at a couple players in the 6010-6030/310lb+ range (Brown, Shelton), and ended up with only the two UDFAs - John Atkins (6027/321), and Frank Herron (6033/305, currently on the Psquad).

 

[AlexB]

If this PFF article is right that Flowers' AAV will be at least what Danielle Hunter got (14.4m), and as high as what Mack got (23.5m), he's likely as good as gone. While those numbers seem high, there are teams out there with more cap space than they can efficiently use who are looking for immediate impact players.

Trey Flowers ends contract year on high note, bound for massive pay day | NFL Analysis | Pro Football Focus

 

[Deus Irae]

Belichick has gotten what he needs out of the draft, and what the best franchise in the nfl needs.

What utter nonsense. What the hell has happened to your posting? You used to have mostly solid takes. Lately, you've been as bad as someone who's never watched football.

 

[PatsFan2]

What utter nonsense. What the hell has happened to your posting? You used to have mostly solid takes. Lately, you've been as bad as someone who's never watched football.

It's the Jim Jones/BB Kool-Aid he's been on it for a while now.