Patriots Pregame Thread Week 4 discussion: Pats @ Cowboys

[PatsFan2]

FWIW, both Bedard and Chris Simms watched the Cowboys/Cards game film and feel it is more of the Cards OC exploiting some weaknesses and using the Cowboys’ aggressive defense against them. It is two guys opinions, but that is what they saw. Not saying the Pats can do the same thing.

Exactly no two games play the same too many things can happen. The Patriots need to be aggressive form the whistle and put pressure on the Cowboys nobody is expecting us to win on the Road. This should be a statement game for Mac 10 let go!!

 

[Thelonious]

I'm having a hard time figuring this game out, and I still haven't decided which team I think will win. My inclination is to pick the Pats, but I suspect that might be more of a hope than an analysis. Both teams have a road to a win, but it's hard to quantify their chances. The Cowboys have better players; the Pats have better coaches? The Pats are on the way up; the Cowboys are facing yet another (in a long line of) inexplicable fainting spells? Which Dak? Which Mac?

I started typing this in the hope that something insightful and definitive would emerge. No such luck. I've got nothing.

If I were a betting man, I'd say that line looks pretty favorable for a bet on the Pats.

 

[Uptown]

Get Dak!

 

[SlowGettingUp]

So what's the Patriot's offensive strategy going to be here with a still banged-up (or at least unsettled) OL vs. two high-end rushers?
One idea is they go heavy, running the ball with two or three TE sets punctuated with some play-action and screens and the occasional max protect and a shot downfield. That Pharaoh Brown touchdown last game means the defense can't simply assume run out of that package.

Parsons is simply incredible and getting better each game. Maybe the answer is to run at him with a FB leading (not so easy because they move him around a lot).

Top 10 pass rushers: Micah Parsons earns top marks in new Next Gen Stats Pressure Probability Model

The Next Gen Stats analytics team ranks the top pass rushers of the 2023 NFL season using the new NGS Stats Pressure Probability Model. Who earns the No. 1 spot? And which teams land multiple players?

www.nfl.com

 

[denverpatsfan]

So what's the Patriot's offensive strategy going to be here with a still banged-up (or at least unsettled) OL vs. two high-end rushers?
One idea is they go heavy, running the ball with two or three TE sets punctuated with some play-action and screens and the occasional max protect and a shot downfield. That Pharaoh Brown touchdown last game means the defense can't simply assume run out of that package.

Parsons is simply incredible and getting better each game. Maybe the answer is to run at him with a FB leading (not so easy because they move him around a lot).

Top 10 pass rushers: Micah Parsons earns top marks in new Next Gen Stats Pressure Probability Model

The Next Gen Stats analytics team ranks the top pass rushers of the 2023 NFL season using the new NGS Stats Pressure Probability Model. Who earns the No. 1 spot? And which teams land multiple players?

www.nfl.com

old school crappy 90's Pats strategy: keep the extra TE on the field to chip/block him. And yes run AT him.

 

[Patsfan1958]

Pretty good 5 minute video:

NFL Week 4 bold predictions: Ezekiel Elliott has two TDs in return to Dallas; FIVE sacks for Myles Garrett

 

[captain stone]

Get Dak!

Man I hate seeing Jalopy Tavai on the field at the same time as Bentley and at the expense of Mack truck Wilson & Yo Adrian Phillips.

 

[mgteich]

Can the Defense hold DAL to 20 points?

Can we score 21 points?
==========================

 

[Uptown]

 

[Patsfan1958]

 

[Kontradiction]

I'm headed down to Jerry's world to catch the game live this Sunday. Last minute flight.

Any tips?

Don’t get shot.

 

[Uptown]

 

[jimnance]

Cowbums with Prescott under center have performed much better at home than they have on the road, their week 1 win at the Vagiants

Vagiants. Love it. You're in mid-season form

 

[SlowGettingUp]

Snap the damn ball and run it.

 

[Sciz]

Snap the damn ball and run it.

Might have worked, but not many play callers are bold enough to run on 3rd and 11 regardless of the defensive look.

 

[SlowGettingUp]

Might have worked, but not many play callers are bold enough to run on 3rd and 11 regardless of the defensive look.

And I guess that likely wasn't one of the QB's options.

 

[Patsfan1958]

 

[slash83]

If Zach Martin can’t go that gives NE a big advantage

 

[SVN]

The recent history of our games show that we will play these games tough . unfortunately we arent yet accustomed to them pulling off a win. So i fear it will be one of those "missed opportunity" games. until the team pulls one out , its hard to trust them and even for the team , they dont have any reference for a winning feeling in these games. They need it for their confidence as much as the fans need it.

 

[VJCPatriot]

With our pathetic offense, I can't see the Patriots beating the Cowpokes on the road.

I'm sensing something like a 27-17 loss. And that's assuming our offense can produce more than the 13 points it got against the tepid Jets.

The Cowboys on paper are much more talented than the Patriots and have an actual good QB in charge of their offense.

That being said, we should praise the Patriots defensive performance so far.

Patriots defense is ranked 5th in the NFL in total yards per game. Just behind the Cowboys who are ranked 4th.
Patriots defense 9th in rushing yards allowed per game at 93.3.
Patriots defense 5th in passing yards allowed per game at 177. Behind the Cowboys stingy 2nd ranked pass defense (130.7) per game.
Patriots defense 3rd in 3rd down percentage allowed at 27%. Ahead of the Cowboys 4th ranked 3rd down percentage allowed of 30.6%.
Patriots defense 9th in points allowed per game at 19.7. But behind the Cowboys stingy 3rd ranked 12.7 points per game.

So to conclude - it's clear by the numbers that the Patriots have a very good defense that is top 10 in many defensive categories and even top 5 in a few but the bad news is that the Cowboys defense looks just as good if not better in a couple of categories.

And as far as the offense goes, it's not even close. The Cowboys have the 6th scoring offense in the NFL with 28.7 ppg and the Patriots own the 26th ranked scoring offense at 17.3 ppg.

I'm afraid that the game isn't even going to be as close as the 7 point spread the oddsmakers gave. I expect the defense to put up a valiant effort to keep the score down but eventually the constant failures of the offense will lead to the Patriots loss and us falling to 1-3 to start the season.

Stats source:

NFL Team Defense Stats 2023-2024 - Points Against, Sacks & More

NFL team defense stats for 2023-2024 including points against, QBR against, sacks allowed, as well as rushing and passing yards per game allowed.

www.covers.com

NFL Team Offense Stats 2023-2024 - Points Per Game, QBR & More

NFL team offense stats for 2023-2024 including points per game (PPG), QBR, sacks allowed, yards per game (YPG), 3rd down percentage, and more.

www.covers.com