WEAK SCHEDULE THEORY

[Nikolai]

I enjoy seeing these kind of posts. I'm kind of in the same place.

I've been going back and forth on how to get an accurate SOS, using the records or rating at the time they play or by adjusting the teams entire season as teams change. My thinking on adjusting the entire season is that in the long run it could be closer to all teams' true strength if I use the latest rankings for all weeks.

I think if you're going to do a quick and dirty analysis, that's the best way. In the end, you'd just have to accept the criticism that the final rankings don't account for momentum swings, and since that's a very subjective measure, it's a criticism I could live with I think.

I tried fiddling with assigning weights to games played versus games to come and over the course of the entire season, and I got close to a formula but nothing that works in all scenarios. It's definitely a tough one and one that would occupy quite a bit of time in trying to figure out. It's possible, though.

Some of the differences are large. Using one method the Browns are tied for 21st and the other they're tied for 1st.
Minny goes from 2nd to 10th.

Yeah, I'm almost not surprised because of how subjective and fickle those rankings can be. The achilles heel might just be those qualitative numbers which, as we know, don't always make much sense.

Good post.

 

[Ring 6]

false actually

Well if you do not understand the difference between an opinion and a fact this is pointless.

 

[PatsDeb]

I went to the game. No seriously, hear me out. Here is a list of the games I have attended at Gillette.

Denver in 2006 (L)
Miami in 2008 (L) Wildcat game
Ravens in 2009 Playoffs (L) No explanation needed...Hey there goes Ray.
Jets in 2010 Playoffs (L) Yup I was there
Miami in 2011 (W) only win and we were down by 17 at the half.
Eagles in 2015 (L) most embarrassing loss in a while.

See what I mean. As a matter of fact the Eagles game was a last minute thing. Was sitting eating lunch at the CBS Sportsscene and texted my brother a picture of the tickets. His response? "What make you think this is a good idea".....we know how that turned out.

I have a self imposed attendance ban on Home playoff games. And I try to limit my home game attendance during the regular season game. Figured the Eagles was a sure thing.

Now my road record is impressive though. 8-1 in road games.

Why didn't you go to Denver last year, d%#*!@t!

 

[Nikolai]

I went to the game. No seriously, hear me out. Here is a list of the games I have attended at Gillette.

Denver in 2006 (L)
Miami in 2008 (L) Wildcat game
Ravens in 2009 Playoffs (L) No explanation needed...Hey there goes Ray.
Jets in 2010 Playoffs (L) Yup I was there
Miami in 2011 (W) only win and we were down by 17 at the half.
Eagles in 2015 (L) most embarrassing loss in a while.

See what I mean. As a matter of fact the Eagles game was a last minute thing. Was sitting eating lunch at the CBS Sportsscene and texted my brother a picture of the tickets. His response? "What make you think this is a good idea".....we know how that turned out.

I have a self imposed attendance ban on Home playoff games. And I try to limit my home game attendance during the regular season game. Figured the Eagles was a sure thing.

Now my road record is impressive though. 8-1 in road games.

I have had a similar experience in that the Pats either lose or barely hang on to win whenever I go.

The only exception was the Texans playoff game in January 2013. That went very swimmingly.

 

[Soul_Survivor88]

The 2016 schedule is weak, no one can deny that.

But, this team is performing the way a Super Bowl contender ought to







As of week 14, the Patriots have the highest point differential in the League

 

[borg]

Cannot it be argued that bad ass regular season opponents tackle fiercer/harder/more punishing...and too often over the years key Patriot cogs get broken during these punishing outings...ie....Gronk (this year and about every other year for him).
Seattle breaking Gronk, Denver breaking Welker, etc.
Give me regular season ****y cats and have the healthiest roster ready for January. (if it was only this simple)

 

[Uptown]

 

[Soul_Survivor88]

Patriots not being battle-tested is a myth, team most prepared out of entire AFC

While the Patriots haven't faced the most teams above .500 of the other AFC playoff teams, they have by far the best record against them. New England will have faced seven winning teams after Sunday and it is currently 5-1 against them, which could move to 6-1 if the team can beat Miami.

The Patriots have fared the best out of any of the other AFC teams, as they are 3-1 entering Sunday's game with the Dolphins against playoff teams this season. No other AFC playoff team is above .500 against other playoff teams besides the Chiefs, who are 3-2.

 

[Jangles]

I'm not sure what the Pats SOS is this year but I think the Jeff Fisher show hurt that number by about 20%.

What an offensive crap show that was.

We had the easiest schedule in the league

 

[Tony2046]

We had the easiest schedule in the league

OK first that was a semi joke or shot at Jeff Fisher and the Rams. That was an absolute joke of a performance from the Rams.

But in reality SOS is simply an average win% of all the teams played on the schedule so playing the worst two teams in the league may skew your SOS a bit.

Win Percentage of all teams played: .439

Win Percentage minus Rams, Cle and SF: .506

Yes it was an easy schedule but it wasn't as easy as the SOS would dictate.

 

[brdmaverick]

I may be wrong but I believe the Pats despite being 13-3 ended the 2011 regular season without a victory against a winning team.

They still reached the Super Bowl and came a Welker catch away from winning it.