WEAK SCHEDULE THEORY

[Ring 6]

I have always leaned toward a season with a tough schedule preparing a team better for a championship run than a season with a weak schedule (probably since the 2003 Patriots beat something like 10 10 win teams and I think could have continued playing til May and no one would have beaten them) but this year the story is we have played a weak schedule. How weak though? How much tougher is the playoff competition we have to be prepared for?

There are 3 other teams in the AFC better than 7-5. There are 3 7-5 teams also and we have beaten 2 and play the 3rd Monday night.

So who are these feared teams?

The 3 teams better than 7-5 each have dramatic flaws.
KC not only has Alex Smith, but its defense has been very poor outside of forcing a bunch of turnovers, and 8 of them came in the Jets game. They have allowed 27 and 28 points in their last 2 games. They have allowed over 400 yards of offense in 3 in a row, 4 of 5 and 5 of 7 games. In games where they force less than 2 turnovers (5 of them) they are allowing an average of 430 yards and 29 points. Their last 3 games have all been less than 1 takeaway. Their best run D day all season has been 96 yards.


Denver has a terrible offense. With CJ Anderson out, Booker is averaging 3.5 per carry, and since he took over for Anderson it has been a paltry 2.8. They have no one left and now are signing Justin Forsett who can't keep a job in the NFL.
Siemian hasn't exactly peed his pants, but he is one of the worst QBs in the NFL. 217 of the Broncos 408 passes have targeted Thomas or Sanders and neither is having a great season. The OL has allowed 33 sacks.
This is one of the worst offenses in the NFL. It is hard to envision a defense that is clearly declined from last year, carrying this bad of an offense very far.

Raiders. No doubt a very good offense and one with a knack for putting points on the board, but that defense is awful. They have allowed 20 or more in 10 of 12 games, and 24 or more in 8 of 12 and 30 or more in 4. They are giving up 125 yards and 4.9 ypc on the ground. They have just 21 sacks (almost half by one guy) and allow 12.3 yards per completion.

This could be the easiest path to the SB in the AFC since 2008.

 

[Bradyking12]

This could be the easiest path to the SB in the AFC since 2008.

Don't mention it

 

[Bertil]

I don't think it's an accident that the Patriots had their best years when the rest of the AFCE was good. The Dolphins, Jets and Bills were light years better in the first part of the 2000s. They Pats had many more "quality wins" during that time, beating better teams more often and strengthening themselves for more successful Playoff runs.

 

[mosslost]

I don't think it's an accident that the Patriots had their best years when the rest of the AFCE was good. The Dolphins, Jets and Bills were light years better in the first part of the 2000s. They Pats had many more "quality wins" during that time, beating better teams more often and strengthening themselves for more successful Playoff runs.

It's not all entirely accurate though. 07 and 11,12,13,14,15,16 Pats all better than the 01 team.. close to on par with the 03 and 04. (07 best of them all, just fluky end.. all 01,03,and04 could have ended the other way for us too)

 

[1960Pats]

Which teams would everyone least want the Pats to face in the playoffs.

Team - Off Rank/Def Rank
A - 19/7
B - 1/21
C - 24/1
D - 4/9
E - 20/3
F - 17/2
G - 9/12
H - 2/27
J - 3/17

 

[Nikolai]

I went through this analysis in 2010 when the Pats were steamrolling everyone. At some point late in the season, the numbers added up that it was the toughest schedule the Pats had faced in the TFB/BB era. They went 14-2. We know what happened next...

So I don't buy the weak/strong schedule crap. The games are played on the field.

 

[Soul_Survivor88]

I went through this analysis in 2010 when the Pats were steamrolling everyone. At some point late in the season, the numbers added up that it was the toughest schedule the Pats had faced in the TFB/BB era. They went 14-2. We know what happened next...

So I don't buy the weak/strong schedule crap. The games are played on the field.

Truly one of the worst losses of the Belichick/Brady era.

That 2010 team seemed Super-Bowl bound. I don't know what happened.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Truly one of the worst losses of the Belichick/Brady era.

That 2010 team seemed Super-Bowl bound. I don't know what happened.

1. Brady saw ghosts as Rex had the gameplan of his life
2. Chung back on PRs and not Jules was a death blow
3. Defense sucked on 3rd down and could not force a TO to save its life

 

[RobertWeathers]

I went through this analysis in 2010 when the Pats were steamrolling everyone. At some point late in the season, the numbers added up that it was the toughest schedule the Pats had faced in the TFB/BB era. They went 14-2. We know what happened next...

So I don't buy the weak/strong schedule crap. The games are played on the field.

Matchups, matchups, matchups.

 

[Tony2046]

I'm not sure what the Pats SOS is this year but I think the Jeff Fisher show hurt that number by about 20%.

What an offensive crap show that was.

 

[luuked]

Matchups, matchups, matchups.

That's what it boils down to. We can end the thread right here.

Matchups and execution.

 

[RobertWeathers]

That's what it boils down to. We can end the thread right here.

Matchups and execution.

Exactly. Thats why BAL is always a pain in the ass. They have good pass rushers, fast LBs and fairly decent cover guys. Thats exactly the kind of personnel needed to slow down this offense.

 

[Jlaff]

Which teams would everyone least want the Pats to face in the playoffs.

Team - Off Rank/Def Rank
A - 19/7
B - 1/21
C - 24/1
D - 4/9
E - 20/3
F - 17/2
G - 9/12
H - 2/27
J - 3/17

I pick door "G". Now for the reveal.

Edit: oops I misread the question, I picked who I wanted to face. Can I have the answer anyway?

 

[Bradyking12]

Matchups, matchups, matchups.

The little accident right before the second half really did it, we should of just punted, made no sense to fake punt especially when we were only down 7-3 before the the second half

 

[RobertWeathers]

The little accident right before the second half really did it, we should of just punted, made no sense to fake punt especially when we were only down 7-3 before the the second half

Pats had their chances in the 2nd 1/2 but that just helped the Jets confidence.

 

[Ring 6]

It's not all entirely accurate though. 07 and 11,12,13,14,15,16 Pats all better than the 01 team.. close to on par with the 03 and 04. (07 best of them all, just fluky end.. all 01,03,and04 could have ended the other way for us too)

He is talking about best playoff years I believe

 

[Ring 6]

I went through this analysis in 2010 when the Pats were steamrolling everyone. At some point late in the season, the numbers added up that it was the toughest schedule the Pats had faced in the TFB/BB era. They went 14-2. We know what happened next...

So I don't buy the weak/strong schedule crap. The games are played on the field.

One example doesn't refute something that has some level of causation.
I don't think other than who scored the most points in a game you can find anything that lead to anything else 100% of the time.

I never implied battle tested = success or untested = failure but it does seems that teams who survive difficult schedules tend to have an advantage in the post season

 

[Ring 6]

Which teams would everyone least want the Pats to face in the playoffs.

Team - Off Rank/Def Rank
A - 19/7
B - 1/21
C - 24/1
D - 4/9
E - 20/3
F - 17/2
G - 9/12
H - 2/27
J - 3/17

Ranked by what?

 

[RobertWeathers]

It's not all entirely accurate though. 07 and 11,12,13,14,15,16 Pats all better than the 01 team.. close to on par with the 03 and 04. (07 best of them all, just fluky end.. all 01,03,and04 could have ended the other way for us too)

The 01 team was a lot better than you think.

 

[sb1]

I don't think playoff runs get much more impressive than 04... almost shutting out a record breaking Colts offense then hanging a whole bunch of points against the #1 defense in the league in Pittsburgh and then knocking off a really great Eagles team... probably the best team they ever had at least in the Super Bowl era.