Trey Flowers: “We’ve got six, we want seven.”

[Ring 6]

ALL that matter is the gtd money.

Let's say they give him a 5 year deal 35m sign bonus.

His APY could be: 9/10/16/19/21 (15m APY). That leaves 12m for other FA.

They already have 55 players signed and 12 more draft picks, so they will cut players and extend others and this number will increase.

If Flowers leave i repeat it is not about the APY, it will be because Bill don't see him as a 15m player.

Or 16 or 17 or whatever he gets. No telling 15 is the number.

We have a lot of spots to fill and 12 draft picks aren’t filling 12 spots.
Just from last year without considering upgrades we need (conservative 1st year cap hit of similar replacement)
LT. (10 mill)
Te2. (3 mill)
Wr2. (7 mill)
Wr3. (5 mill)
Wr4. (3 mil)
De1. (10 mill)
Dt1 (8 mill)
Dt3. (4 mill)
Cb3. (5 mill)
K. (4 mill)
P. (1 mill)

That’s 60 million. We have 21.
Giving 40% of the money we have to fill 11 spots with to 1 guy is definitely a reason to not pay him even if he is “worth it”.

 

[Ring 6]

I love Trey and he is a monster but don't push it:

Chandler Jones
2018 stats - Avg stats

Sacks: 13
Tackles: 49
PD: 4
FF: 3
QB Hits: 18
FR: 1

Trey Flowers

2018 stats - Avg stats

Sacks: 7.5
Tackles: 57
PD: 2
FF: 3
QB Hits: 20
FR: 0

CJ best Season with NE:

Sacks: 11.5
Tackles: 82
TD: 1
FF: 1
QB Hits: 23
FR: 1

But you just cannot judge defensive players with statistics.
On that note jones was a better player over his patriot career than flowers has been (partly due to injury) but if healthy going forward I would much rather have flowers.

 

[FirstAndGoal]

Flowers will get a high market deal either way. I know some have disagreed with his worth but I know the Lions were ecstatic when he couldn't play against them. "Unblockable" was the word used by a member of the staff. He was a huge concern for their offense.

 

[everlong]

Playoffs

Jones: 9 games, 1 forced fumbles, 0 pass defended,2 sacks, 18 combined tackles, 2 tackles for loss, 8 QB hits

Flowers: 9 games, 0 forced fumbles, 1 pass defended, 5.5 sacks, 39 combined tackles, 8 tackles for loss, 22 QB hits

 

[50-yard-line]

Or 16 or 17 or whatever he gets. No telling 15 is the number.

We have a lot of spots to fill and 12 draft picks aren’t filling 12 spots.
Just from last year without considering upgrades we need (conservative 1st year cap hit of similar replacement)
LT. (10 mill)
Te2. (3 mill)
Wr2. (7 mill)
Wr3. (5 mill)
Wr4. (3 mil)
De1. (10 mill)
Dt1 (8 mill)
Dt3. (4 mill)
Cb3. (5 mill)
K. (4 mill)
P. (1 mill)

That’s 60 million. We have 21.
Giving 40% of the money we have to fill 11 spots with to 1 guy is definitely a reason to not pay him even if he is “worth it”.

Many of those are ? - CB3? JJones for just over 2 on the tender.

Dt 1&3? Draft is pretty thick and they've got Guy and Wise already. Also could get Shelton or Brown back cheap. They won a Superbowl with an outstanding defensive performance with those guys.

WRs? Edelman will probably be their top paid WR. Dorsett, Hogan, or Patterson are all possible returns. Amendola wouldn't cost much if he's cut. They'll draft one or two, and Flash will likely be back (also still pretty cheap).

TE2: I'd love them to grab ASJ - I think he could be a breakout player. The draft will likely be the way here, maybe Izzo

LT: Isaiah Wynn
3rd Tackle: Waddle (1.5-2m)

 

[Ring 6]

Many of those are ? - CB3? JJones for just over 2 on the tender.

Dt 1&3? Draft is pretty thick and they've got Guy and Wise already. Also could get Shelton or Brown back cheap. They won a Superbowl with an outstanding defensive performance with those guys.

WRs? Edelman will probably be their top paid WR. Dorsett, Hogan, or Patterson are all possible returns. Amendola wouldn't cost much if he's cut. They'll draft one or two, and Flash will likely be back (also still pretty cheap).

TE2: I'd love them to grab ASJ - I think he could be a breakout player. The draft will likely be the way here, maybe Izzo

LT: Isaiah Wynn
3rd Tackle: Waddle (1.5-2m)

To make it easy I compared to what we lost. It’s not like it adds up to 25 mill and we have 21.
I think the numbers I used are pretty fair for an equivalent replacement

Not to say we sign all those guys because we can’t. But to say we have 21 so it’s easy to assign 9 to flowers ignores a lot of holes.

 

[patsbrasilpatriotas]

Or 16 or 17 or whatever he gets. No telling 15 is the number.

We have a lot of spots to fill and 12 draft picks aren’t filling 12 spots.
Just from last year without considering upgrades we need (conservative 1st year cap hit of similar replacement)
LT. (10 mill)
Te2. (3 mill)
Wr2. (7 mill)
Wr3. (5 mill)
Wr4. (3 mil)
De1. (10 mill)
Dt1 (8 mill)
Dt3. (4 mill)
Cb3. (5 mill)
K. (4 mill)
P. (1 mill)

That’s 60 million. We have 21.
Giving 40% of the money we have to fill 11 spots with to 1 guy is definitely a reason to not pay him even if he is “worth it”.

We have 7 premium picks (i really don't know if they are gonna be pro blowlers or not but i know they will make the team) So cross at least 5 needs from this list.

LT we already have (Wynn). We need a backup ST, that could be Waddle or a late pick 1.5 - 2.5m

TE probably a draft pick.
WR probably a draft pick or 2 + vet let's say 7.5m
CB probably a draft pick.
DE probably a draft pick.
DT probably a draft pick OR 2
K i agree 4m or late pick
P will cost a lot more than 1m probably 2 - 3m

That's 12m or 16m but that is the AVERAGE of the contract not the cap hit THIS year. And extending guys will increase the cap space.

Quarterbacks (2/3)

12 Tom Brady
2 Brian Hoyer
10

Running backs (3/4)

34 Rex Burkhead
26 Sony Michel
28 James White
33

Fullback (1/1)

46 James Develin FB

Wide receivers (1/4)

13
14
11 Julian Edelman
15

Tight ends (2/3)

83
87 Rob Gronkowski
85 Ryan Izzo

Offensive linemen (7/8)

60 David Andrews C
61 Marcus Cannon T
62 Joe Thuney G
66 James Ferentz C
75 Ted Karras C/G
69 Shaq Mason G
68 T
76 Isaiah Wynn T

Offense = 16/23

Defensive linemen (4/8)

70 Adam Butler DT
94 Adrian Clayborn DE
58 DE
93 Lawrence Guy DT
90 DT
55 DE
91 Deatrich Wise Jr. DE
98 DT

Linebackers (4/5)

51 Ja'Whaun Bentley MLB
54 Dont'a Hightower OLB
52 Elandon Roberts MLB
44 OLB
53 Kyle Van Noy OLB

Defensive backs (8/10)

23 Patrick Chung SS
29 Duke Dawson CB
24 Stephon Gilmore CB
21 Duron Harmon SS
27 J. C. Jackson CB
32 Devin McCourty FS
22 Obi Melifonwu CB/S
31 Jonathan Jones CB*
30 S
35 CB

Defense = 16/23

Special teams (4/7)

49 Joe Cardona LS
3 K
6 P
18 Matthew Slater WR
36 Brandon King OLB
43 Nate Ebner FS
59

 

[patsbrasilpatriotas]

But you just cannot judge defensive players with statistics.
On that note jones was a better player over his patriot career than flowers has been (partly due to injury) but if healthy going forward I would much rather have flowers.

I agree 100%. But CJ is not half of the player Flowers is. He is a monster and have a skillset that would help Flowers a lot. And i know is not a popular take but scheme helped Flowers a lot, don't get me wrong i would love to have him back even at 17m per, but Flores >>>>>>>> Patricia.

 

[patsbrasilpatriotas]

Playoffs

Jones: 9 games, 1 forced fumbles, 0 pass defended,2 sacks, 18 combined tackles, 2 tackles for loss, 8 QB hits

Flowers: 9 games, 0 forced fumbles, 1 pass defended, 5.5 sacks, 39 combined tackles, 8 tackles for loss, 22 QB hits

Last 3 years

X: 48 games, 9 forced fumbles(0.1875 per game), 10 pass defended(0.2083 per game), 41 sacks (0.8541 per game), 127 combined tackles(2,64 per game), 56 tackles for loss (1,16 per game), 72 QB hits (1,5 per game) Started all games

Y: 37 games, 5 forced fumbles (0.1351 per game), 6 pass defended(0.1621 per game), 21 sacks(0.5675 per game), 164 combined tackles(4,4 per game), 27 tackles for loss (0.7227 per game), 59 QB hits (1,5945 per game) Missed 23% of the games

 

[SBLIII]

Reiss is usually plugged in and has maintained his stance that the NEP are keeping Flowers for weeks. Thought he would be a bit more conservative like he usually is but he seems pretty confident in his prediction.

 

[jimnance]

I love Trey and he is a monster but don't push it:

Chandler Jones
2018 stats - Avg stats

Sacks: 13
Tackles: 49
PD: 4
FF: 3
QB Hits: 18
FR: 1

Trey Flowers

2018 stats - Avg stats

Sacks: 7.5
Tackles: 57
PD: 2
FF: 3
QB Hits: 20
FR: 0

CJ best Season with NE:

Sacks: 11.5
Tackles: 82
TD: 1
FF: 1
QB Hits: 23
FR: 1

Not pushing anything. Flowers is better than Jones.
You can't quantify everything he does.
He does much more than Jones. Hes better vs. run, better setting edge and yes even s better passrusher when that is what he's supposed to do. Most importantly. he's much more consistently good game in game out and MUCH better in the CLUTCH in big games.
He plays inside and out not just on the edge. He physically overpowers ol that outweigh him by 50 lbs with one of the best bullrushes in the NFL.
I like Jones, but he can't hold Flowers' jock.

 

[SBLIII]

Not pushing anything. Flowers is better than Jones.
You can't quantify everything he does.
He does much more than Jones. Hes better vs. run, better setting edge and yes even s better passrusher when that is what he's supposed to do. Most importantly. he's much more consistently good game in game out and MUCH better in the CLUTCH in big games.
He plays inside and out not just on the edge. He physically overpowers ol that outweigh him by 50 lbs with one of the best bullrushes in the NFL.
I like Jones, but he can't hold Flowers' jock.

all this what you are saying is pretty much subjective you can't quantify it though. If BB pays him, that would be certainly eye opening though.

 

[jimnance]

Not pushing anything. Flowers is better than Jones.
You can't quantify everything he does.
He does much more than Jones. Hes better vs. run, better setting edge and yes even s better passrusher when that is what he's supposed to do. Most importantly. he's much more consistently good game in game out and MUCH better in the CLUTCH in big games.
He plays inside and out not just on the edge. He physically overpowers ol that outweigh him by 50 lbs with one of the best bullrushes in the NFL.
I like Jones, but he can't hold Flowers' jock.

But I do agree Flores > Patricia.

 

[Drewski]

I love Trey and he is a monster but don't push it:

Chandler Jones
2018 stats - Avg stats

Sacks: 13
Tackles: 49
PD: 4
FF: 3
QB Hits: 18
FR: 1

Trey Flowers

2018 stats - Avg stats

Sacks: 7.5
Tackles: 57
PD: 2
FF: 3
QB Hits: 20
FR: 0

CJ best Season with NE:

Sacks: 11.5
Tackles: 82
TD: 1
FF: 1
QB Hits: 23
FR: 1

My non expert knock on Chandler was always "for a guy who seems supremely talented, he seems to disappear when the games matter most (playoffs)"

Chandler Jones - Playoff stats
9 Games - 8 Started
13 Tackles
5 Assists
2 TFL
1 FF
2 Sacks

Trey Flowers - Playoff stats
9 Games - 9 Started
21 Tackles
18 Assists
8 TFL
0 FF
5.5 Sacks

I can't compare 16 Game regular seasons all that well because what AZ does on Defense and what they ask CJ to do (and not do) might not translate to what the Pats do on Defense and what they ask Trey to do (and not do).

I do know, in the sample that exists (Patriots Playoff games) Flowers shined brighter (and brightest for his sack on Matty Ice that put the Falcons out of game ending FG range).

Maybe unfair to put a premium on playoff performance, but this is New England, to me that's what matters.

 

[jimnance]

all this what you are saying is pretty much subjective you can't quantify it though. If BB pays him, that would be certainly eye opening though.

Not really. Pretty much any serious NFL analyst who's studied a lot of film and knows how to interpret it, would tell you flowers is now a better player than jones.
He's does much much more than Jones who is primarily a passrusher only.
One of the traits of elite players is consistency.
Flowers is consistently great.
Jones has disappeared on the field for long stretches of games throughout his career. He's also got a much easier job than flowers. He's basically a onetrick pony, albeit very good at what he does.
Flowers is more like High a few years ago and Seymour before that, in that they all did multiple things on D and did them all well.

 

[captain stone]

As noted in the Sopranos that Indian is Italian.

You mean just like Chief Jay Strongbow?

 

[patsbrasilpatriotas]

My non expert knock on Chandler was always "for a guy who seems supremely talented, he seems to disappear when the games matter most (playoffs)"

Chandler Jones - Playoff stats
9 Games - 8 Started
13 Tackles
5 Assists
2 TFL
1 FF
2 Sacks

Trey Flowers - Playoff stats
9 Games - 9 Started
21 Tackles
18 Assists
8 TFL
0 FF
5.5 Sacks

I can't compare 16 Game regular seasons all that well because what AZ does on Defense and what they ask CJ to do (and not do) might not translate to what the Pats do on Defense and what they ask Trey to do (and not do).

I do know, in the sample that exists (Patriots Playoff games) Flowers shined brighter (and brightest for his sack on Matty Ice that put the Falcons out of game ending FG range).

Maybe unfair to put a premium on playoff performance, but this is New England, to me that's what matters.

Our D was pretty bad in 2012-2013

I rather have Trey but context matters:

CJ stats in 2013: 12/48 - 25% sacks | QB Hits 23/96 - 24% | TFL 14/68 - 20.5%

vs.

Trey Flowers 2017 season (his best IMO)

TF stats: 6,5/42 - 15% sacks | QB Hits 25/104 - 24% | TFL 8/72 - 11%

Pats D in 2013, he was 2 teamed ALL the time. There was NO rotation on ED.

Ninko Joe Vellano Chris Jones CJ

HT + Jamie Collins (8 games only)/ Spikes

Arrington/Dmac/Steve Gregory/ Ryan/ Talib

Wilfork HURT
Sopoaga HURT
Tommy Kelly HURT
Mayo HURT

 

[everlong]

Last 3 years

X: 48 games, 9 forced fumbles(0.1875 per game), 10 pass defended(0.2083 per game), 41 sacks (0.8541 per game), 127 combined tackles(2,64 per game), 56 tackles for loss (1,16 per game), 72 QB hits (1,5 per game) Started all games

Y: 37 games, 5 forced fumbles (0.1351 per game), 6 pass defended(0.1621 per game), 21 sacks(0.5675 per game), 164 combined tackles(4,4 per game), 27 tackles for loss (0.7227 per game), 59 QB hits (1,5945 per game) Missed 23% of the games

Different system. If you watch any Cardinals games Jones makes lots of splash plays. He also leaves the door open for lots of huge plays for the other team. He has almost no edge responsibilities and zero lane discipline. If you turn Flowers lose he would have accelerated stats in that system as well.

The playoff games were all in this system.

 

[patsbrasilpatriotas]

Different system. If you watch any Cardinals games Jones makes lots of splash plays. He also leaves the door open for lots of huge plays for the other team. He has almost no edge responsibilities and zero lane discipline. If you turn Flowers lose he would have accelerated stats in that system as well.

The playoff games were all in this system.

Maybe because he a better pass rusher and Flowers is a improved Ninkovich. Again i rather have Flowers but it is not like picking Brady against Sam Darnold.

 

[signbabybrady]

Reiss is usually plugged in and has maintained his stance that the NEP are keeping Flowers for weeks. Thought he would be a bit more conservative like he usually is but he seems pretty confident in his prediction.

I don't go to ESPN much what's he been saying? Adament? Or just repeating the same opinion? I only ask because he doesn't come off as the adament type I feel like he usually rides the fence.