Time to Get Brady Weapons

[supafly]

or they could bring in a steadying veteran presence like a Jerricho Cotchery.

I could honestly see a guy like Jerricho Cotchery coming here and acting as a decent possession receiver in the Givens kind of mold. He'd at least be worth keeping on as a depth guy in the 4-5-6 spots, without even thinking twice. I think that would be a fine signing.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Seems to me that Slater catching that ball would have made a hell of a difference...

Not to mention the fact that the presence of a real deep threat completely changes the gameplan for both teams. Would have opened up a lot of things that weren't there.

 

[DocHoliday]

I think every player needs to be individually assessed in terms of value and cap hit.

Would I want Miles Austin for anything more than 1 million dollars or so? No.

Would I want to bring him in with others to compete for a cheaper kind of deal like the Michael Jenkins' and Donald Jones' of the world? Maybe. He can't honestly be that much worse than a lot of the castoffs we've seen lately who are competing for the WR4/5/6 spots.

Would I want him having to be relied upon to produce with a lot of snaps? Hell, no. We may as well scratch him off the list if anyone is looking at it that way.

I'm all for bringing in veteran castoffs though, in terms of cheap deals who can compete against each other for the bottom of the depth chart, unless of course--Belichick actually goes out and makes a move, which would pretty much solidify our depth chart aside from maybe one more spot.

I think Austin is much better than Jenkins and Jones though. When healthy he's a star. Of course, he's rarely completely healthy.

 

[mgteich]

Is Adrian Peterson a downfield threat because he has plays over 20 yards? No, of course not.

If you believe that we don't need to run patterns more than 20 yards won the field, then say so. Obviously, Brady and Josh prefer short and intermediate routes. That's fine. But, we must be able to have downfield threats to spread the field. It is a lot harder to be successful short if there is no downfield threats. We see the effect of this short field in the red zones where we have greatly missed Gronk.

So, YACs are critical in making short passes into great plays. However, this does not substitute for downfield threats. In 2012, we had Gronk, LLoyd, Hernandez and Branch.

On Sunday, we needed to use Slater.

The need is there. Perhaps, players on the team can meet that need, perhaps not.

What you seem to be suggesting is that a top, pro-bowl downfield threat isn't really critical to the patriots. With that I agree.

According to Ian's database:

The top 3 players who made plays of over 20 yards this year (not necessarily balls traveling "in the air") :

Gronk--10

Edelman--9

Amendola--8

That shows an obvious lack of downfield threat.


I don't think it really matters how many actual targets Dobson (or anyone) received that were in the air past 20 yards, nor do I know from looking at the database, although I could be just missing it.

The bottom line is that we really were quite limited in how often we could even attempt such a play, and that could use an upgrade in my opinion.

It's possible that Belichick may feel comfortable enough in hoping that Dobson pans out in that role, but I can certainly understand those who would like another year of him being blended into the passing game again. Just because we took him as a 2nd round pick doesn't mean that we're forced to use him anymore than we were with T.Wilson, D.Butler, or Jermaine Cunningham. I want to see the best players receiving the most reps who put us in the best position to win every week. More importantly, I want to see someone who can really make a difference there on the outside.

I'm not coming close to suggesting to "give up" on Dobson. That would be ridiculous. I can however, imagine him receiving 30 or so snaps per game, having another year to flourish, and having some specific plays drawn up to get him the ball, while we use a more talented and experienced player on the outside for various reasons.

 

[supafly]

I think Austin is much better than Jenkins and Jones though. When healthy he's a star. Of course, he's rarely completely healthy.

Agreed, of course about the rarity of health. Not sure that I'd see him as a "star," but he can't be any worse than bringing in guys like Levelle Hawkins, Donald Brown, or Michael Jenkins in my opinion.

FWIW--here's a bit of a more thorough list of possible cap casualties and restructuring candidates:

Santonio Holmes ($8.25 million + $1 million roster bonus + $250K workout bonus)
Sidney Rice ($8.5 million)
Steve Smith ($4 million + $3 million option bonus)
Stevie Johnson ($3.65 million + $1.75 million roster bonus + $275K workout bonus)
Miles Austin ($5.5 million)
Nate Burleson ($5.5 million)
Nate Washington ($4.8 million)
Lance Moore ($3.1 million + $500,000 roster bonus + $200K workout bonus)
Jason Avant ($2.25 million + $1 million roster bonus)
Davone Bess ($3.067 million)
Malcom Floyd ($2.75 million)
Earl Bennett ($2.35 million + $100,000 workout bonus)
Brad Smith ($1.3 million)
Matt Slater ($1.2 million + $100,000 workout bonus)
Jon Baldwin ($1,274,765)
Eric Weems ($1 million + $100,000 workout bonus)
Arrelious Benn ($1 million)

 

[supafly]

On Sunday, we needed to use Slater.

The need is there. Perhaps, players on the team can meet that need, perhaps not.

What you seem to be suggesting is that a top, pro-bowl downfield threat isn't really critical to the patriots. With that I agree.

I am suggesting to the poster whom I responded to that the actual number of targets that Dobson received past 20 yds doesn't really matter, due to the fact that we couldn't really run that kind of play with anyone. I think pointing out the fact that Gronk, Edelman, and Amendola were the top 3 players at that position proves that thinking. The fact remains that Dobson (our "downfield threat" is so many minds) only caught a total of 3 passes over 20 yds or more throughout the entire season. That is unacceptable once again.

No, I don't think that we need a top, pro-bowl downfield threat, but I don't necessarily want to have to depend on Dobson either. I certainly think it can be improved upon, and I think it should be.

The odds of getting to 3 straight AFCCG's were rather low to begin with and yet we came away with nothing. The odds of going to a 4th consecutive have to be pretty low just due to the law of averages alone, so it's certainly nothing even close to be any kind of certainty. In order to really showcase the skills of Brady, our slot/short passing game, Gronk, and others--we could definitely use an upgrade at the outside receiving position. That would make us much more dangerous in the months of Jan/Feb, not to mention extremely difficult to defend, much like we just saw with DEN.

 

[patsinthesnow]

Agreed, of course about the rarity of health. Not sure that I'd see him as a "star," but he can't be any worse than bringing in guys like Levelle Hawkins, Donald Brown, or Michael Jenkins in my opinion.

FWIW--here's a bit of a more thorough list of possible cap casualties and restructuring candidates:

Santonio Holmes ($8.25 million + $1 million roster bonus + $250K workout bonus)
Sidney Rice ($8.5 million)
Steve Smith ($4 million + $3 million option bonus)
Stevie Johnson ($3.65 million + $1.75 million roster bonus + $275K workout bonus)
Miles Austin ($5.5 million)
Nate Burleson ($5.5 million)
Nate Washington ($4.8 million)
Lance Moore ($3.1 million + $500,000 roster bonus + $200K workout bonus)
Jason Avant ($2.25 million + $1 million roster bonus)
Davone Bess ($3.067 million)
Malcom Floyd ($2.75 million)
Earl Bennett ($2.35 million + $100,000 workout bonus)
Brad Smith ($1.3 million)
Matt Slater ($1.2 million + $100,000 workout bonus)
Jon Baldwin ($1,274,765)
Eric Weems ($1 million + $100,000 workout bonus)
Arrelious Benn ($1 million)

Big Outside Receiver + Glass + Potentially Cheap = we have a winner!

 

[supafly]

Not to mention the fact that the presence of a real deep threat completely changes the gameplan for both teams. Would have opened up a lot of things that weren't there.

And that's pretty much why it's definitely needed in my opinion.

It helps out with much more than "just" catching passes. I could be way off, but I just don't imagine Dobson striking that much fear in the opposition this year.

Maybe he makes a tremendous leap and becomes an elite player, but I don't like the thought of depending upon it, and that's not even bringing up the fact that the depth needs to be improved for when the inevitable happens and he, or someone else becomes injured.

 

[mgteich]

Thank you for clarifying.

To be clear, how much of our free agent resources are you suggesting be allocated to wide receivers?

Are you suggesting re-signing Edelman, the #4 available receiver?

Are you suggesting another of the other top 10 receivers like Sanders?

Obviously, how much we spend on receiver affects how much we spend on other positions on offense: TE, OL and RB.

I am suggesting to the poster whom I responded to that the actual number of targets that Dobson received past 20 yds doesn't really matter, due to the fact that we couldn't really run that kind of play with anyone. I think pointing out the fact that Gronk, Edelman, and Amendola were the top 3 players at that position proves that thinking. The fact remains that Dobson (our "downfield threat" is so many minds) only caught a total of 3 passes over 20 yds or more throughout the entire season. That is unacceptable once again.

No, I don't think that we need a top, pro-bowl downfield threat, but I don't necessarily want to have to depend on Dobson either. I certainly think it can be improved upon, and I think it should be.

The odds of getting to 3 straight AFCCG's were rather low to begin with and yet we came away with nothing. The odds of going to a 4th consecutive have to be pretty low just due to the law of averages alone, so it's certainly nothing even close to be any kind of certainty. In order to really showcase the skills of Brady, our slot/short passing game, Gronk, and others--we could definitely use an upgrade at the outside receiving position. That would make us much more dangerous in the months of Jan/Feb, not to mention extremely difficult to defend, much like we just saw with DEN.

 

[supafly]

Thank you for clarifying.

To be clear, how much of our free agent resources are you suggesting be allocated to wide receivers?

Are you suggesting re-signing Edelman, the #4 available receiver?

Are you suggesting another of the other top 10 receivers like Sanders?

Obviously, how much we spend on receiver affects how much we spend on other positions on offense: TE, OL and RB.

I am wondering if it wouldn't be possible to spend a bit more this year than recently, due to the fact that we could approach Amendola for a restructure at the beginning of 2015? If he doesn't take it, we could move on. I have a hard time imagining Belichick paying both he and Edelman into the future beyond this year.

As far as Edelman vs Sanders (or Amendola in the slot)---whatever Belichick feels is best, although I'd hope that a decent effort be made to attempt to retain Edelman, and I imagine that it will be.

Paying a bit more for 2014 may improve the situation not only now, but also for the future.

Keep in mind that we also spent, what? 13-14-15 million or so at the position in 2012 with Welker, Llyod, Branch, Edelman, and Slater. So, it's quite possible that we could afford to spend a little more than some are suggesting. It's even possible that Edelman may be retained for 4.5m AAV, but only cost 2.5 against the cap this season, thus leaving another couple/few million in cap hits available after he, Amendola, and the rookies. Even then we wouldn't be approaching anything near 2012.

As always, tough cuts, restructures, and money converted into bonuses to lessen the cap hit will be made---and that's if they choose to continue with the exact same 100% business model as always. We don't know if any of the new TV money that kicks in for 2016 will come into play or not with any decisions.

 

[condon84]

If Brady both hit Edelman and Collie deep, we're not talking about any of this crap.

 

[Deus Irae]

If Brady both hit Edelman and Collie deep, we're not talking about any of this crap.

We've been talking about it all year, because it's been an obvious issue. Why would it have stopped just because Edelman and Collie made catches?

 

[CISGS]

This is what I don't understand.

All I hear are people saying

1. We could have never predicted Gronk getting hurt
2. We could have never predicted Hernandez going to jail
3. We could have never predicted our rookie receivers getting banged up

When this is all true too

1. Gronkowski/Amendola were HUGE injury risks to begin with
2. Hernandez went to jail before the season even began
3. All rookie WRS get banged up (they aren't used to playing that long/hard)

We could have

• Traded for Josh Gordon (he is a top 10, at least, wideout)
• Traded for Hakeem Nicks (down season but with TB12, who knows)
• Traded for Emmanuel Sanders (nonsensical, but possible)
• Signed a free agent WR (someone tall that can run a streak)
• Tried harder to sign Lloyd (I didn't like him either but he had 1,000 yds)

We chose to stand pat. We should have pulled the trigger before the deadline when the offense struggled as much as it did in the beginning of the season. We played weak teams and were not impressive. Gronkowski doesn't fix all problems and even if you do point to the spike in production with him in the lineup, its unrealistic to rely on him to be there when we need him.

 

[Avenger]

Austin Seferian-Jenkins is what this team needs.

 

[Claremonster]

Big Outside Receiver + Glass + Potentially Cheap = we have a winner!

We don't want potential glass. We want the real glass!

 

[pork3]

I've noticed across a few threads mention that Brady needs a deep threat.
While I agree with this in principle, isn't there also the question of whether Brady's questionable accuracy at the deep ball, as of late, is the rationale behind a system that heavily favors short and intermediate passes, and hence the team devaluing the deep ball threat?

-Jamman

 

[supafly]

If Brady both hit Edelman and Collie deep, we're not talking about any of this crap.

And yet you're talking about Julian Edelman and Austin Collie as our player(s) who MAY get one opportunity each for a somewhat deeper pass of 30-35 yards in the biggest postseason game of the season, and this is the argument against it?

You honestly think that we should stay with these options to try and get behind the defense? More importantly add the necessary elements that a deeper or more physical outside threat would give our team, and take away from the opposition and their gameplanning?

 

[Deus Irae]

This is what I don't understand.

All I hear are people saying

1. We could have never predicted Gronk getting hurt
2. We could have never predicted Hernandez going to jail
3. We could have never predicted our rookie receivers getting banged up

When this is all true too

1. Gronkowski/Amendola were HUGE injury risks to begin with
2. Hernandez went to jail before the season even began
3. All rookie WRS get banged up (they aren't used to playing that long/hard)

We could have

• Traded for Josh Gordon (he is a top 10, at least, wideout)
• Traded for Hakeem Nicks (down season but with TB12, who knows)
• Traded for Emmanuel Sanders (nonsensical, but possible)
• Signed a free agent WR (someone tall that can run a streak)
• Tried harder to sign Lloyd (I didn't like him either but he had 1,000 yds)

We chose to stand pat. We should have pulled the trigger before the deadline when the offense struggled as much as it did in the beginning of the season. We played weak teams and were not impressive. Gronkowski doesn't fix all problems and even if you do point to the spike in production with him in the lineup, its unrealistic to rely on him to be there when we need him.

Homers on this site consistently ignore/forget/excuse any negatives about players/coaches/owners, until those people move on to other teams or end up in jail.

Chicken Littles on this site consistently ignore/forget/excuse any positives about players/coaches/owners, until those people move on to other teams.

 

[Kontradiction]

We were #3 in scoring this year. All of our new wide receivers were injured for most of the year: Amendola, Dobson, Thompkins and Boyce). Our running game was much improved.

I guess we need a major overhaul.

Needs...

1. WR that can threaten outside the numbers and downfield.

2. TE2

3. C

4. RG

That's not a major overhaul. That's sealing up a few areas of obvious weakness. IMO, the team can seal two areas with moves that could be made with personnel already on the roster. They could move Cannon to RG and move Connolly to C, where he has been the best fit here. They can then sign guys like Hakeem Nicks or Emmanuel Sanders and Scott Chandler. That's just looking at it from an FA perspective and not even including what they could do in the draft.

 

[supafly]

This is what I don't understand.

All I hear are people saying

1. We could have never predicted Gronk getting hurt
2. We could have never predicted Hernandez going to jail
3. We could have never predicted our rookie receivers getting banged up

When this is all true too

1. Gronkowski/Amendola were HUGE injury risks to begin with
2. Hernandez went to jail before the season even began
3. All rookie WRS get banged up (they aren't used to playing that long/hard)

We could have

• Traded for Josh Gordon (he is a top 10, at least, wideout)
• Traded for Hakeem Nicks (down season but with TB12, who knows)
• Traded for Emmanuel Sanders (nonsensical, but possible)
• Signed a free agent WR (someone tall that can run a streak)
• Tried harder to sign Lloyd (I didn't like him either but he had 1,000 yds)

We chose to stand pat. We should have pulled the trigger before the deadline when the offense struggled as much as it did in the beginning of the season. We played weak teams and were not impressive. Gronkowski doesn't fix all problems and even if you do point to the spike in production with him in the lineup, its unrealistic to rely on him to be there when we need him.

Even worse in my opinion, was the fact that they chose to stand pat even after knowing that Gronk had just gone in for his umpteenth surgery AND Hernandez was lost for the season.

There was still plenty of time in late June to make a move, as any potential player still had the benefit of the entire training camp + a whole other month beforehand to prepare and get the system down. It really wasn't that much different than our rookies.

They obviously thought that it was plenty of time for another QB to come in and attempt to pick up enough of our system/his system, whatever the hell it was with Tim Tebow, as that move was made only a week or so beforehand.

It may have been a move made out of desperation that may have costed an extra round for any draft pick, but we've been forced to make moves out of desperation before--most recently at the past 2 trade deadlines. The fact that nothing was done at the end of June with 10+ weeks to go before the season, and that they were fine with what they had in rookies disgusts me.