Time to Get Brady Weapons

[SHOWTIME15]

Even worse in my opinion, was the fact that they chose to stand pat even after knowing that Gronk had just gone in for his umpteenth surgery AND Hernandez was lost for the season.

There was still plenty of time in late June to make a move, as any potential player still had the benefit of the entire training camp + a whole other month beforehand to prepare and get the system down. It really wasn't that much different than our rookies.

They obviously thought that it was plenty of time for another QB to come in and attempt to pick up enough of our system/his system, whatever the hell it was with Tim Tebow, as that move was made only a week or so beforehand.

It may have been a move made out of desperation that may have costed an extra round for any draft pick, but we've been forced to make moves out of desperation before--most recently at the past 2 trade deadlines. The fact that nothing was done at the end of June with 10+ weeks to go before the season, and that they were fine with what they had in rookies disgusts me.

I think the team was relying more on hernandez and was willing to go 3WR and 1 TE sets for most of the season or until gronk got back..the problem was that hernandez was arrested AFTER he draft. If it was before, the team would have drafted a TE.

The problem I had was that hernandez and gronk have been injured of and on for the past 3 years...whenever one of them got hurt e offense struggled greatly. Belichick should have known and gotten better depth in this area...

 

[CISGS]

I think the team was relying more on hernandez and was willing to go 3WR and 1 TE sets for most of the season or until gronk got back..the problem was that hernandez was arrested AFTER he draft. If it was before, the team would have drafted a TE.

The problem I had was that hernandez and gronk have been injured of and on for the past 3 years...whenever one of them got hurt e offense struggled greatly. Belichick should have known and gotten better depth in this area...

I agree with your points but Hernandez was questioned in June of this year. That leaves all July, August, September to learn the offense. We should have done something.

 

[The Brandon Five]

This is what I don't understand.

We could have

[*]Traded for Josh Gordon (he is a top 10, at least, wideout)

Cool story, bruh! Explains why he wasn't with the Browns when we played them...oh, wait.

[*]Traded for Hakeem Nicks (down season but with TB12, who knows)

You are dinging the team for having injury-prone guys but you wanted them to trade for a guy who was already injured? :confused4:

[*]Traded for Emmanuel Sanders (nonsensical, but possible)

They tried to get Sanders. The Steelers gave up the potential of compensatory third-round draft pick from us to keep him. Should we have offered a second? A first?

[*]Signed a free agent WR (someone tall that can run a streak)

Such as? They did draft Dobson (tall) and Boyce (fast).

[*]Tried harder to sign Lloyd (I didn't like him either but he had 1,000 yds)

Lloyd is not even in football now. Tells you how much he had left that nobody signed him.

 

[The Brandon Five]

I agree with your points but Hernandez was questioned in June of this year. That leaves all July, August, September to learn the offense. We should have done something.

Who was available at that point?

 

[Archeryaddict12]

I agree with your points but Hernandez was questioned in June of this year. That leaves all July, August, September to learn the offense. We should have done something.

No one worth a darn was available

 

[condon84]

And yet you're talking about Julian Edelman and Austin Collie as our player(s) who MAY get one opportunity each for a somewhat deeper pass of 30-35 yards in the biggest postseason game of the season, and this is the argument against it?

You honestly think that we should stay with these options to try and get behind the defense? More importantly add the necessary elements that a deeper or more physical outside threat would give our team, and take away from the opposition and their gameplanning?

Dobson looked pretty good before he got injured. I don't see the necessity to invest in a high priced receiver who can go deep when Brady has a hard time connecting on his deep throws anyways. When Moss was here, yeah he looked good throwing deep, but so did Jeff George, Daunte Culpepper and even Pennington in college. We're not gonna get another guy like Moss, unless we go all in for Larry Fitzgerald. Is Miles Austin or any of these other mid-tier receivers really that much of an upgrade over Dobson?

Again, this team ended with the 3rd most points scored this year. Do we really need to keep investing in offensive weapons? Let's say Dobson and Thomkins progress and get better and stay healthy, along with Gronk/other pass catching TE, a starting receiving core of Gronk, Dobson, Edelman, Amendola, with Ridley/Blount/Vereen in the backfield is gonna score a lot of points.

What this team needs to invest in is pass rushers. Manning was hurried 3 times out of 43 dropbacks. That is a bigger problem imo.

 

[CISGS]

Cool story, bruh! Explains why he wasn't with the Browns when we played them...oh, wait.

Gordon was widely reported as being available before the deadline. We could have traded a 1 for him. Cameron was also reported as being available for the right price.

You are dinging the team for having injury-prone guys but you wanted them to trade for a guy who was already injured? :confused4:

He started 15 games this year.

They tried to get Sanders. The Steelers gave up the potential of compensatory third-round draft pick from us to keep him. Should we have offered a second? A first?

Maybe we could have offered a little more money? We offered him basically nothing. This one is unlikely. I agree with you. I still think we should have offered a little more money but signing him in the offseason makes more sense.

Such as? They did draft Dobson (tall) and Boyce (fast).

Dobson and Boyce are rookies. We have Super Bowl aspirations and rookie wideouts rarely make big impacts (Keenan Allen is an anomaly, plus he broke down too). We could have signed Lloyd, Moss or T.O. (half-joking, we aren't desperate).

Lloyd is not even in football now. Tells you how much he had left that nobody signed him.

Lloyd was reported to have garnered interest from several teams (and even Brady himself allegedly). He chose not to play.

 

[The Brandon Five]

Gordon was widely reported as being available before the deadline. We could have traded a 1 for him. Cameron was also reported as being available for the right price.

Reported as being available and actually available might be two different things, yanno? It's a question of what is the right price?

He started 15 games this year.

The Giants started shopping him in October. He dislocated his finger in September.

Maybe we could have offered a little more money? We offered him basically nothing. This one is unlikely. I agree with you. I still think we should have offered a little more money but signing him in the offseason makes more sense.

The point is that the besides paying him we would have had to give up more than a 3rd round pick for him. We got Randy for a 4th. I'll let you do the math to figure out if they would give up a 2nd or 1st for Gordon.

Dobson and Boyce are rookies. We have Super Bowl aspirations and rookie wideouts rarely make big impacts (Keenan Allen is an anomaly, plus he broke down too). We could have signed Lloyd, Moss or T.O. (half-joking, we aren't desperate).

We weren't desperate. Still third in points. In the end too many injuries to field a team that could compete with the highest scoring offense in the Super Bowl era. Hard to score points from the sidelines. The Broncos had the ball all afternoon.

Lloyd was reported to have garnered interest from several teams (and even Brady himself allegedly). He chose not to play.

Doesn't sound like he was all that passionate about the game then. Not sure how that would help the Pats win.

 

[CISGS]

Reported as being available and actually available might be two different things, yanno? It's a question of what is the right price?

I already said the "right price". Its a #1 pick.

The point is that the besides paying him we would have had to give up more than a 3rd round pick for him. We got Randy for a 4th. I'll let you do the math to figure out if they would give up a 2nd or 1st for Gordon.

Really? An 30 year old Randy Moss that played one productive (albeit it, historic) season? Gordon is 22. Those aren't even comparable.

We weren't desperate. Still third in points. In the end too many injuries to field a team that could compete with the highest scoring offense in the Super Bowl era. Hard to score points from the sidelines. The Broncos had the ball all afternoon.

I agree 100%.The injuries were too much to overcome.

Doesn't sound like he was all that passionate about the game then. Not sure how that would help the Pats win.

Call me insane, but if we really wanted him (we are a Super Bowl contender you know), then he could be had for the right price as you say. Which for Lloyd, is probably peanuts. People like to play for a chance at a championship, they also like being paid to do it. I don't think we would have had to break the bank for Brandon Lloyd.

 

[ausbacker]

I know this is counterproductive to everything we believe in but if the Jets release Santonio Holmes, is he worth looking at provided the contract is agreeable?

 

[Snake Eyes]

I know this is counterproductive to everything we believe in but if the Jets release Santonio Holmes, is he worth looking at provided the contract is agreeable?

You'd be paying a ton to make a deal with the devil.

 

[ausbacker]

You'd be paying a ton to make a deal with the devil.

My feeling is the contract would be prohibitive but at this point, I'd be willing to consider a deal with the devil to give Brady what's needed to win a Super Bowl (outside of roster health).

Comparatively Sanders would be the guy I'd prefer to target but things fall the way they fall.

 

[Kontradiction]

I know this is counterproductive to everything we believe in but if the Jets release Santonio Holmes, is he worth looking at provided the contract is agreeable?

 

[JoeSixPat]

All this talk about needing a deep threat prompted me to look over the splits from this year for passes actually THROWN over 20 yards to see how 2013 stacked up

My gut instinct was that there was no CREDIBLE deep threat this season. And it wasn't for lack of trying - though maybe McDaniels figured if not quality and efficiency, try to stretch the field through increased volume.

Ultimately I feel Brady does best when he can confidently spread the field - including an efficient use of the deep ball. Defenses also aren't going to remain "honest" if there's no credible deep threat. They may occasionally get burned but they know that the numbers are with them after awhile and will assign coverage and double teams accordingly, making Brady's life, and that of his "go-to" receivers, that much more difficult.

In any event, here's the splits for passes actually THROWN over 20 yards (I recognize shorter passes can go deep as well but if a player is running a 10 yard route consistently the coverage won't be very deep.)

2013 - 15 catches over 20 yards/61 attempts = 24.5 CMP%;
2012 - 22 catches/68 attempts = 32.3 CMP%
2011 - 15 catches/47 attempts = 31.9 CMP%
2010 - 14 catches/36 attempts = 38.8 CMP%
2009 16 catches/50 attempts = 32.8 CMP%
2007 28 catches/69 attempts = 40.5 CMP%
2006 23 catches/63 attempts = 36.5 CMP%

So OK - 2007 is a bit of an outlier with Moss etc.

The real surprise for me was that I wasn't expecting 2006 to be as good as it was given that we, and Belichick, obviously felt he needed to bring in some deep threats and improve the offense in general.

And honestly, even these numbers are a bit skewed and don't fully show the lack of deep threat credibility from this season. Typically there's a big dropoff of efficiency from 20-30 yards to over 30 or 40 yard throws (of course)

In 2013 the piss poor 21.3 CMP% of 20-30 yard throws (which is where most of the deep passes occur) is actually HELPED by a halfway decent 31.3 CMP% of throws between 30-40 yards.

I did all of this quickly and hope I didn't make a mistake copying the stats, but I think this better illustrates that it was the lack of a credible deep threat, and overall a lack of multiple trusted receiving options that were difference makers to this team in the end.
Tom Brady Stats, Splits - New England Patriots - ESPN

You can get by lesser teams with what the Patriots had - in fact you can go 12-4 - but when you come up against better teams, that ***** catches up with you

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

Wow 2006 was high huh? Interesting

 

[SeymourTrophies]

We've had an above average offense or better for a long time, we haven't won a super bowl since we had a top defense.

Getting/keeping a top corner and improving the trenches/edge is just as attainable as creating the next offensive juggernaut.

 

[JoeSixPat]

Wow 2006 was high huh? Interesting

Yes - I think, though, that the high CMP% that year might be a bit of a stat quirk

Not that it's a bad thing, but go down the list of 2006 receivers and you'll see 7 guys (including Doug Gabriel, Ben Watson, Reche Caldwell, Dave Thomas, Laurence Maroney and Corey Dillon with long receptions over 30 yards (I'm not sure if those were the deeply thrown passes in question but it could be a quirk)

While I really like spreading the ball - noting that the Patriots have proven that's a good way to win a Super Bowl - I think Belichick still felt that none of those guys mentioned above truly forced the defenses to remain "honest" the same way a guy like Randy Moss (or even Dante Stallworth) could - and thus went out and brought them in.

This of course is part of the reason I tend not to go stat crazy as it merely points one in a direction and then you use your eyeballs and some common sense - so even though 2006 on paper didn't look like the worst deep threat year - surely none of those guys above had anyone CBs really shaking in their boots as deep threats.

 

[Snake Eyes]

We've had an above average REGULAR SEASON offense or better for a long time, we haven't won a super bowl since we had a top defense.

There, fixed it for you.

 

[upstater1]

We've had an above average offense or better for a long time, we haven't won a super bowl since we had a top defense.

Getting/keeping a top corner and improving the trenches/edge is just as attainable as creating the next offensive juggernaut.

Everyone would love a great defense.

That being said, let's compare the defense that gave up 29 points in 31 minutes to the Panthers to the defense that gave up 17 and 21 points to the Giants.

Seems to me the great 2004 defense flubbed in the Super Bowl while the flawed 2008 and 2012 defense did a pretty credible job--except in the final minute.

Another anomaly in this discussion: the 2004 offense, however you rate it, won that 2004 Super Bowl over the Panthers. Not the defense. Brady had to put up a top 5 Super Bowl performance for that victory.

 

[captain stone]

Agreed, of course about the rarity of health. Not sure that I'd see him as a "star," but he can't be any worse than bringing in guys like Levelle Hawkins, Donald Brown, or Michael Jenkins in my opinion.

FWIW--here's a bit of a more thorough list of possible cap casualties and restructuring candidates:

Santonio Holmes ($8.25 million + $1 million roster bonus + $250K workout bonus)
Sidney Rice ($8.5 million)
Steve Smith ($4 million + $3 million option bonus)
Stevie Johnson ($3.65 million + $1.75 million roster bonus + $275K workout bonus)
Miles Austin ($5.5 million)
Nate Burleson ($5.5 million)
Nate Washington ($4.8 million)
Lance Moore ($3.1 million + $500,000 roster bonus + $200K workout bonus)
Jason Avant ($2.25 million + $1 million roster bonus)
Davone Bess ($3.067 million)
Malcom Floyd ($2.75 million)
Earl Bennett ($2.35 million + $100,000 workout bonus)
Brad Smith ($1.3 million)
Matt Slater ($1.2 million + $100,000 workout bonus)
Jon Baldwin ($1,274,765)
Eric Weems ($1 million + $100,000 workout bonus)
Arrelious Benn ($1 million)

Stevie Johnson would be intriguing if released; most of the rest either aren't going anywhere
(Smith, Avant, Floyd, Bennett, Baldwin) or aren't worth the money they're making now for a reason.