This years draft haul

[Stu Pidassle]

That's what you do when you are already a talented team and drafting late in the round, you take risks on injured players hoping there is some upside if/when they get healthy. Gronk is the poster child for that.

Overall, fans put much more faith in the draft than teams do. Teams understand that it's more of a crap shoot than fans think it is. Fans see good production in college and presume it will just translate to the NFL. Some times it does, some times it does not. Teams know we're talking about young people who may or may not make the transition from being coddled college players to dealing with full grown men in the NFL. Teams accept that it's a crap shot, whereas some fans stay butt hurt for years over it.

I agree with the points you raise, I should not have used the word trap It is hard to add draft choices to stacked rosters, especially when enforcing the merit system.

 

[Bill Lee]

Ok, eh I don’t think we can really count zappe there. He earned this start by our first 2 qb getting injured. It isn’t a reflection of the draft success.

What would you be saying if he got into the game and sucked eggs?

Bottom line is the kid showed he could run the offense at the same level as an experienced veteran backup (e.g. Hoyer) could. That's a lot of value to get out of a late fourth round draft pick, especially when you consider what veteran backup QBs get paid.

 

[Bill Lee]

Yup agreed, if you are a loyal defender of BB the last thing you want to know is the guys we should have picked instead. Because the N'Keal Harry pick looks downright awful in hindsight. NEVER criticize BB for FAILING at the draft, message received loud and clear! Let us never criticize BB for making mistakes in the draft, because remember he's infallible and has never made mistakes there!! LMAO

This is the perfect example of logical fallacy. Let's give an every day example.

Boss: Shouldn't you have done X instead of Z? We're losing money here.
Employee: Never tell me what I should have done instead. I never make mistakes!

What is logical fallacy?



A logical fallacy is a statement that seems to be true until you apply the rules of logic. Then, you realize that it's not. Logical fallacies can often be used to mislead people – to trick them into believing something they otherwise wouldn't.

This is not about protecting BB.

This is just pointing out that if you use hindsight to cherry pick results, you can make any GM look bad.

Just go to google and type in "(Team X) draft busts" and you get a list of draft busts for each and every Team X.

Then you go find all the decent players picked after said busts with the benefit of hindsight, and you make that GM look bad.

The logical fallacy comes from using hindsight to suggest someone is a failure who doesn't have the benefit of hindsight.

If you could consistently pick better than BB without hindsight, you'd be making a lot of money as an NFL GM or running a draft web site.

Instead, you're here posting for free on patsfans.com.

 

[Calhoun44]

the point I’m trying to make is that you can have the best guard in the world and it will barely move the meter. The Pats had the “greatest offensive lineman of all time” . Thier record was 100-91 and made his only SB appearance in his final year (Where they got smoked )

The Pats had the greatest QB of all time and thier record during that time was was 219-61 with 17 playoff appearances, 9 Superbowls and 6 SB championships.

yes you need a good guard, but whoever they are, they are not going to make the team demonstratively better.

Drafting a game changer early in the draft will.

John Hannah was not the reason the patriots had some rough years during his time playing. I don't know if you put the "greatest lineman of all-time" in quotes because you don't believe it or if you are quoting someone, but I think HOF'er John Hannah is good enough for me if you want to be respectful. Although if it were me i would say The GREATEST LINEMAN OF ALL TIME!!! But I am a self-proclaimed homer, so take it wioth a grain of salt.

Regarding Brady, your point about him leading the team to an amazing record and clearly being the GOAT QB is further evidence that the draft is a crapshoot, the guy was pick #199!! 198 picks before him were deemed better at the time of drafting. So to your final sentence from above, the game changer they drafted was drafted very, very, very late in the draft.

Good discussion, which makes me so glad the Pats have had such competent coaching and a front office for so long.

 

[Kasmir]

Most fans are so bad at math that they choose numerology over probability. The "Belichick can't draft 2nd round DB's" is an example of that, especially coupled with "but he can pick FA CB's" claim. The number of 2nd round DB's drafted by BB is far too few to draw to draw statistically interesting conclusions, i.e. it's dominated by luck. That BB can pick and develop late round DB's strongly supports the bad luck argument. The meme is numerological nonsense.

 

[cupofjoe1962]

I will gladly admit, I like the draft results in mid October much better than I liked it in late April.

We desperately needed a good draft, and the jury is still out, but we are trending in the right direction

 

[Bill Lee]

I think that's why you often see Bill draft a player and get a FA for the same position. Let them battle it out and end up with one who is capable,

Or if there's no clear choice at a position, trade down and pick two at the position and see if either can produce at the NFL level.

 

[cupofjoe1962]

Most fans are so bad at math that they choose numerology over probability. The "Belichick can't draft 2nd round DB's" is an example of that, especially coupled with "but he can pick FA CB's" claim. The number of 2nd round DB's drafted by BB is far too few to draw to draw statistically interesting conclusions, i.e. it's dominated by luck. That BB can pick and develop late round DB's strongly supports the bad luck argument. The meme is numerological nonsense.

We have a terrible record under Belichick at drafting DB’s in round#2

Which one do you think was a good pick in the second round of the draft?

2008 - Terrence Wheatley
2009 - Patrick Chung
2009 - Darius Butler
2011 - Rasi Dowling
2012 - Tavon Wilson
2015 - Jordan Richards
2016 - Cyrus Jones
2018 - Duke Dawson
2019 - JoeJuan Williams

Chung was a bust as a #2 pick, but he did
Become a solid player after returning as a FA.

Just because we struck gold on a couple UDFA in Butler & JC Jackson, but that does
Not negate all the 2nd round DB busts

We also drafted Duggar in the 2nd round of
The 2020 draft. The jury is still out on Duggar who is great against the run & terrible against the pass.

 

[ivanvamp]

So far, the returns on the 2022 draft....

1. Strong - Looks fantastic. High quality player already.
2. Thornton - looked great in camp, then got hurt. We shall see, but I'm very optimistic on him.
3. M Jones - great punt returner, looks like he's got good ability at corner too.
4. J Jones - dude is already a legit NFL ballhawk.
5. Strong - Hasn't seen the field much, but I suspect he will now that D Harris is hurt.
6. Zappe - dude just won his first NFL start.
7. K Harris - loved his work in camp, think he's going to be legit. But who knows, really.
8. Roberts - looks like he can play.
9. Hines - PS guy right now.
10. Stueber - didn't make the team.

But 9 out of 10 guys made the team, several of them are already contributing in major ways, and there's clear potential for three others. That's a pretty damned good draft already.

 

[PScottman]

We have a terrible record under Belichick at drafting DB’s in round#2

Which one do you think was a good pick in the second round of the draft?

2008 - Terrence Wheatley
2009 - Patrick Chung
2009 - Darius Butler
2011 - Rasi Dowling
2012 - Tavon Wilson
2015 - Jordan Richards
2016 - Cyrus Jones
2018 - Duke Dawson
2019 - JoeJuan Williams

Chung was a bust as a #2 pick, but he did
Become a solid player after returning as a FA.

Just because we struck gold on a couple UDFA in Butler & JC Jackson, but that does
Not negate all the 2nd round DB busts

We also drafted Duggar in the 2nd round of
The 2020 draft. The jury is still out on Duggar who is great against the run & terrible against the pass.

Define the expectations of a 2d round pick. What are the career statistics? What should they average per year statistically? Do they start for ANY team? How many years is their career?

Chung, Butler, Wilson and even Richards all exceeded the typical single contract of the wide majority of draft picks (any round). The draft remains ONE of the ways to build a team, and is the more risk-based when you have almost zero control over the majority of the variables. And this has nothing to do with "Belichick" or homerism - it's about predicting the future based on data that is not like elements against the same like elements in developing a methodology.

Kudos that to those that spend the time researching (the time necessary is just crazy), but even they will admit that at the end of the day - there's picks that pan out and a vast majority that don't - some for reasons having nothing to do with football.

The measure is "did those that did the picking of the team - through all means - field a competitive team year in and year out?". I've said this in multiple other threads - if Belichick has three straight years of declining records - Kraft should have a conversation about the future.

 

[Patsgofor4]

So far, the returns on the 2022 draft....

1. Strong - Looks fantastic. High quality player already.
2. Thornton - looked great in camp, then got hurt. We shall see, but I'm very optimistic on him.
3. M Jones - great punt returner, looks like he's got good ability at corner too.
4. J Jones - dude is already a legit NFL ballhawk.
5. Strong - Hasn't seen the field much, but I suspect he will now that D Harris is hurt.
6. Zappe - dude just won his first NFL start.
7. K Harris - loved his work in camp, think he's going to be legit. But who knows, really.
8. Roberts - looks like he can play.
9. Hines - PS guy right now.
10. Stueber - didn't make the team.

But 9 out of 10 guys made the team, several of them are already contributing in major ways, and there's clear potential for three others. That's a pretty damned good draft already.

You’ve got a lot of balls bringing that type of optimism here.

 

[cupofjoe1962]

Define the expectations of a 2d round pick. What are the career statistics? What should they average per year statistically? Do they start for ANY team? How many years is their career?

Chung, Butler, Wilson and even Richards all exceeded the typical single contract of the wide majority of draft picks (any round). The draft remains ONE of the ways to build a team, and is the more risk-based when you have almost zero control over the majority of the variables. And this has nothing to do with "Belichick" or homerism - it's about predicting the future based on data that is not like elements against the same like elements in developing a methodology.

Kudos that to those that spend the time researching (the time necessary is just crazy), but even they will admit that at the end of the day - there's picks that pan out and a vast majority that don't - some for reasons having nothing to do with football.

The measure is "did those that did the picking of the team - through all means - field a competitive team year in and year out?". I've said this in multiple other threads - if Belichick has three straight years of declining records - Kraft should have a conversation about the future.

You lost me saying Richards exceeded his contract. That guy was a complete bum, who was a major contributor to our Eagles Super Bowl loss after Butler was benched.

You may think those were good picks, but your in the minority.

I cannot think of a Patriots player from the past more hated than Jordan Richards

A 2nd round pick needs to be more than a special team contributor.

 

[PScottman]

You lost me saying Richards exceeded his contract.

Exceeded his contract was not a statement of performance but of contracts signed beyond a rookie deal.

He was re-signed by BAL then by ATL beyond his rookie deal. I also never said "good picks". It should've been pretty clear that my point was judgement of picks is a fools game on its own as a measure of a team and its staff. Worse when done by laymen after the fact using NFL data collected post-draft as a bludgeon.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

The jury is still out on Duggar who is great against the run & terrible against the pass.

The jury is not still out. Duggar is not terrible against the pass. You didn't watch the game against Detroit? You are in over your head.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

So far, the returns on the 2022 draft....

1. Strong - Looks fantastic. High quality player already.
2. Thornton - looked great in camp, then got hurt. We shall see, but I'm very optimistic on him.
3. M Jones - great punt returner, looks like he's got good ability at corner too.
4. J Jones - dude is already a legit NFL ballhawk.
5. Strong - Hasn't seen the field much, but I suspect he will now that D Harris is hurt.
6. Zappe - dude just won his first NFL start.
7. K Harris - loved his work in camp, think he's going to be legit. But who knows, really.
8. Roberts - looks like he can play.
9. Hines - PS guy right now.
10. Stueber - didn't make the team.

But 9 out of 10 guys made the team, several of them are already contributing in major ways, and there's clear potential for three others. That's a pretty damned good draft already.

I think you meant 1. Strange. I think Hines is on the 53. You don't mention Mitchell who I think also is on the 53 man roster. You forgot Schooler who starts on Special Teams. UDFA count too.

 

[TommyD4207]

The 2020 draft. The jury is still out on Duggar who is great against the run & terrible against the pass.

TJ Hockenson had 1 catch last week, Kyle Dugger drew primary coverage.
Mark Andrews had 100 catches against the Patriots, coincidentally Dugger didn't play.

 

[40yrpatsfan]

So far, the returns on the 2022 draft....

1. Strong - Looks fantastic. High quality player already.
2. Thornton - looked great in camp, then got hurt. We shall see, but I'm very optimistic on him.
3. M Jones - great punt returner, looks like he's got good ability at corner too.
4. J Jones - dude is already a legit NFL ballhawk.
5. Strong - Hasn't seen the field much, but I suspect he will now that D Harris is hurt.
6. Zappe - dude just won his first NFL start.
7. K Harris - loved his work in camp, think he's going to be legit. But who knows, really.
8. Roberts - looks like he can play.
9. Hines - PS guy right now.
10. Stueber - didn't make the team.

But 9 out of 10 guys made the team, several of them are already contributing in major ways, and there's clear potential for three others. That's a pretty damned good draft already.

I think Stueber is still with the team on a reserve list.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

At what point in the season does m jones replace Bryant at slot corner?

 

[Ras-IR Dowling]

At what point in the season does m jones replace Bryant at slot corner?

As long as Bryant has possession of those compromising photos of Bill his job is safe.

 

[TheRazorsEdge]

Depending on who you indulge for information....

We drafted the next GOAT, in Zappe.

I'd say A+ based on that, but what do I know.