This years draft haul

[Toofy]

It is very possible that the Patriots traded back to 29 in the hope that Devin Lloyd would still be there. He went at 27 so it was a near miss. It is also possible that the Patriots could have traded back again and hoped that Strange was still there but could not find a trade partner.

All in all it seems that the Patriots did really well with the trade back from 21 since they got Strange, Jones, Zappe, and Carolina's 3d in 2023. You can get a really good player in the third and if Carolina keeps losing....

Great explanation. I feel pats might have wanted to be around mid 30s and possibly no trade partner .

But honestly strange is looking to be a decent pick and if he continues to grow possibly one of the bedrocks of our future. I want my first rounder to be extended beyond 5th year . That's success.

The team had so many gaps. It was near impossible to draft everyone in this draft. If Thornton pans out , we would possibly start to invest FA more in linebackers .

Next draft is equally important . The biggest problem we have is after all the offensive spending on agholor, Jonnu and Henry the returns are abysmal . That's really pulling us back. We are always playing from behind and the defense cannot always carry us.

So maybe BB and Patricia realize that . Hence handing over free reins to Mac to allow him to grow and help build out the lead. If Mac starts to perform like goff on offense , we should start seeing pats winning the closer games and possibly shootouts . Aiming at Parker has produced 4 interceptions which are possibly growing pains .

 

[FredFromDartmouth]

Aiming at Parker has produced 4 interceptions which are possibly growing pains .

Whoa, can anyone confirm this? That is terrible....

 

[JayNM]

Not good.



BTW, for those arguing that it's because Pats always pick towards the back of the rounds, I believe the Chiefs also picked in the later part of the rounds. I think we just need to face the fact that poor drafts have depleated this team of talent. It is what it is.

Always thought these arguments were weak sauce

given historic trends, picking first gives you +1 good player, on pretty good average (Top 10 picks are the most likely to succedd after all)

But one guy is not enough to build a roster. This comes from good scouting and why some teams have always been good while others fluctuate so much.

It's harder to find Elite/HoF players picking last, as it basically comes down to luck, but to BUILD A ROSTER, picking last consistently is not an excuse to find reliable members of the squad, which have been happening these past 2 years.

For us to become Contenders, we are going to need these over-the-top talents though, and this is seriously lacking in the team

 

[Stu Pidassle]

But honestly strange is looking to be a decent pick and if he continues to grow possibly one of the bedrocks of our future. I want my first rounder to be extended beyond 5th year . That's success.

Your post brings up a fundamental challenge for what positions to pick in the first round. Bacon's excellent post highlighting that only 39% of high draft choices are singed to a second contract is in contrast to Venecol's equally thought provoking post where he lists best bang for the buck positions partly based on the cost to resign them. Throw in the reality that drafting skill positions is more of a crapshoot than other positions, I am not sure that the percentage resigned is the right metric to drive the draft process. In the case of skill positions, not QB as much, it is better to have picks outperform their rookie contracts to the extent that they are not worth the $$ as a free agent. That is win win for both. Obviously best case is that the pick is a generational talent worth any amount of $$$.

 

[BTTA]

I love living in alternate places and always think about "what if" if this prospect would have been drafted by this team. One of my favorites is Randy Moss and the Rams. They could of had him Warner, Faulk and Bruce on the same team. They got Holt the next year but those 4 would have been unbelievable to watch.

Sure, but where's the fun in that?

Oh, I've no problem with "wouldn't it be cool if..." fantasies. That's literally having a good time with it.

What I wish didn't show up here is the posts that call for shared misery. There's enough real reasons to be unhappy in the world, we don't need to invent new ones. This place is one of my escapes from all that.

 

[BTTA]

played in college, coached it for years, when was the last time a guard was the MVP of the league? or the SB?

Well, now we are getting somewhere. You've identified one metric of success: awards given out to players by the press, who happen to be on winning teams and playing positions that get a lot of dramatic attention during games.

I don't share your opinion of that being a highly relevant metric. At least we can now understand the source of the difference.

 

[PScottman]

when was the last time a guard was the MVP of the league? or the SB?

Any coach worth their salt understands that a football team wins game, not just single positions. Why even field a G? They're superfluous...just get the WR and someone who sacks the QB - SEXY!

Congratulations for succumbing to the fantasy football, media driven narrative of "all you need is playmakers" and everything comes up rosy POV. Protect the QB? Overrated right? Open holes for the RB? Don't need no stinking open running lanes - we're going to throw the entire game to said WR anyway. The opposing defense will never adjust or usher your QB to the golf cart before he can deliver the ball to ANY WR because Mason was often exploited in pass pro without the once in a generation decision and quick release Brady had.

The only way you win the point here - please predict exactly which players in next years draft will succeed in their NFL career right NOW. Then maybe you'll have some actual cachet.

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

Any coach worth their salt understands that a football team wins game, not just single positions. Why even field a G? They're superfluous...just get the WR and someone who sacks the QB - SEXY!

Congratulations for succumbing to the fantasy football, media driven narrative of "all you need is playmakers" and everything comes up rosy POV. Protect the QB? Overrated right? Open holes for the RB? Don't need no stinking open running lanes - we're going to throw the entire game to said WR anyway. The opposing defense will never adjust or usher your QB to the golf cart before he can deliver the ball to ANY WR because Mason was often exploited in pass pro without the once in a generation decision and quick release Brady had.

The only way you win the point here - please predict exactly which players in next years draft will succeed in their NFL career right NOW. Then maybe you'll have some actual cachet.

the point I’m trying to make is that you can have the best guard in the world and it will barely move the meter. The Pats had the “greatest offensive lineman of all time” . Thier record was 100-91 and made his only SB appearance in his final year (Where they got smoked )

The Pats had the greatest QB of all time and thier record during that time was was 219-61 with 17 playoff appearances, 9 Superbowls and 6 SB championships.

yes you need a good guard, but whoever they are, they are not going to make the team demonstratively better.

Drafting a game changer early in the draft will.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

the point I’m trying to make is that you can have the best guard in the world and it will barely move the meter. The Pats had the “greatest offensive lineman of all time” . Thier record was 100-91 and made his only SB appearance in his final year (Where they got smoked )

The Pats had the greatest QB of all time and thier record during that time was was 219-61 with 17 playoff appearances, 9 Superbowls and 6 SB championships.

yes you need a good guard, but whoever they are, they are not going to make the team demonstratively better.

Drafting a game changer early in the draft will.

Most of the time you have no idea what you're talking about but even a broken clock is right twice a day.

The difference between a good guard and great guard isn't huge. And you don't need great to win at that spot. The other side of it is OL have a higher hit rate early on. So they're a much safer pick. Which has been one of Bill's big MO. Plus you have to look at scheme and need. Mankins, Thuney, Strong ... Bill wants someone he really likes and can depend on in that spot.

I don't @FreeTedWilliams is saying pass pro, run blocking aren't important. He's just speaking from a bang for ya buck pov and not making the most convincing argument. I'm not the most articulate either Fred.

I think it's a worthwhile discussion though when you look at team need, scheme, value and draft picks.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Last thing. If you can't produce a list. Written in crayon or some type of sheet. Your opinion doesn't matter concerning where/who we should have taken. It's 2023 let's stop playing that game. Especially draftniks. You spend years of your life talking about the draft. Researching prospects, watching games. If you can't put out a list of where you see the value is. You're useless. I have a ton of exgf I can call to give me useless.

 

[VrabelJr]

Not good.



BTW, for those arguing that it's because Pats always pick towards the back of the rounds, I believe the Chiefs also picked in the later part of the rounds. I think we just need to face the fact that poor drafts have depleated this team of talent. It is what it is.

Statistics lie. Every team at the top of that list is either in a rebuild and must keep picks or is a top heavy contender that has given out large contracts to a few teams. If you owe a lot of money to few players you have to keep drafted players because they are cheap. The Chiefs are a great example of this and their depth is pretty lackluster.

 

[upstater1]

This stat can be tweaked in a variety of ways. One team might swing for the fences with their latter picks while UDFAs have a better chance to make the roster as they take this approach. The UDFAs are solid performers, the late rounders are athletic marvels who haven't produced.

Just a couple players make a huge statistical difference.

Most people will be shocked to learn that if Tyquan pans out, the Patriots will be an average team when it comes to drafting WRs.

 

[FredFromDartmouth]

It is still early in the season, but that trade back by the Patriots (21 to 29 to picked up Strange, Jack Jones, Zappe and Carolins's 3 in 2023) is looking better and better. One of their best trade-backs in recent memory.

 

[scott99]

Thornton could make or break this draft. Pickens looked fantastic last week with a real NFL QB behind center

Why pass up on a WR who can run routes like that? Who is our chief Wr scout?

As much as I liked Pickens (a lot), Thornton gives the Pats what they desperately need, pure deep speed. I wish they had double dipped in that category. But oh well.

What Thornton also gives you, he has good height (almost 6’3”) and catch radius. Plus he seems to have good footwork to fool DBs at the line of scrimmage. If Agholor misses some time, and with Bourne stuck in the doghouse, we are gonna see a lot more of Thornton than I expected this year. That being said, I didn’t expect to see this much of Zappe this year either, expected to see him in mop up duty, when we were winning or losing big.

 

[upstater1]

Look, it's clear, the Rams and McVay should've traded up for Cole Strange.

 

[Bill Lee]

Does draft position stop us from taking Lamar Jackson over Sony Michel in 2018? How about Deebo Samuel, AJ Brown, or DK Metcalf over N'Keal Harry in 2019? Hint it doesn't because those players were all taken LATER than our own picks. It's not just about when you take the pick it's about who you choose. The Patriots have failed to make great choices over the years and the lack of talent accumulation through the draft has cost them.

BB's free agency spending spree was his biggest indictment of his own draft process. He signed not one but two tight ends at premium money showing his inability to draft tight ends over the years when it was CLEAR that Gronk was on his last legs. And how sorry would the Patriots pass rush look without Judon? It shows the Patriots have failed to draft a good pass rusher at DE. As for WR we all know the Patriots drafting in that position has been a joke.

Or how about our drought at linebacker? The Patriots were in perfect position to take rookie defensive player of the month Devin Lloyd but instead passed on him to take a guard in Cole strange. So now we have to scrape the bottom of the barrel instead and resign Jamie Collins whom we have already cut 3 or four times now? BB has done a bad job at drafting and he needs to be held accountable.

It's kind of sad to see you be so butt hurt based on results that are cherry picked.

What stopped every other NFL team that didn't draft Lamar Jackson from taking him before BAL? Same for Samuel, Brown, Metcalf.

What stopped every other NFL team from picking Brady? Or Edelman? Or Butler?

Josh Rosen just got cut, so did Andy Isabella. Trubisky and Darnold are benched. Mayfield stinks.

Do yourself a favor and look at every other team's draft history to see what one really should expect from a draft.

Here's one decent article to start with:

NFL Draft Pick Bust Rate Remains Very High

More analytics haven’t increased the success rate

www.dailynorseman.com

 

[Bill Lee]

All one has to do is gamble, just once, with their own money across multiple different game of chance to demonstrate the number of variables inherent in predicting any future outcome with the house coming out on top in all but the lowest percentage of random cases to show that there is much less science than guesswork in those outcomes.

The NFL is Draft is no different. You can put yourself in great position, but likelihood of negative rather than positive outcome remains the statistical certainty across all teams and there is no arguing that, but people will anyway.

As the old saying goes, gambling is a tax on people who are bad at math.

The NFL draft is just an extension of the same thing.

Basically the NFL is selling hope, in its many forms.

The hope that your team will get better, the hope that you'll look smarter than your friends, the hope that your wager will pay off and you'll become rich, these are all gambles.

The only sure winner is the house. The percentage they will keep ("the take") is so well understood that it's written into law in many jurisdictions.

Who do you know who has gotten rich and stayed rich via gambling? Yet we know the ones who own the house are rich, and the ones selling advice to gamblers also make a nice living too. The losers are the ones who actually gamble. The only one getting rich during a gold rush are the ones selling the shovels.

The NFL is pretty amazing in how they've capitalized on the fact that the average person is bad at math, with no one calling them out on it.

All harmless fun, right?

 

[mike_usagisan]

It is still early in the season, but that trade back by the Patriots (21 to 29 to picked up Strange, Jack Jones, Zappe and Carolins's 3 in 2023) is looking better and better. One of their best trade-backs in recent memory.

With the Carolina coach firing and the possibility of a sell-off, that trade back is looking more amazing every day.

 

[Bill Lee]

During the glory days the Pats fell into the trap of drafting for high potential vs. collecting solid talent. Dominique Easley and Rasi Dowling are the poster children from that era. The team has gotten back to fundamentals that last few drafts and the results are obvious. Some of this coincides with Caserio moving to Texas.

That's what you do when you are already a talented team and drafting late in the round, you take risks on injured players hoping there is some upside if/when they get healthy. Gronk is the poster child for that.

Overall, fans put much more faith in the draft than teams do. Teams understand that it's more of a crap shoot than fans think it is. Fans see good production in college and presume it will just translate to the NFL. Some times it does, some times it does not. Teams know we're talking about young people who may or may not make the transition from being coddled college players to dealing with full grown men in the NFL. Teams accept that it's a crap shot, whereas some fans stay butt hurt for years over it.

 

[mike_usagisan]

That's what you do when you are already a talented team and drafting late in the round, you take risks on injured players hoping there is some upside if/when they get healthy. Gronk is the poster child for that.

Overall, fans put much more faith in the draft than teams do. Teams understand that it's more of a crap shoot than fans think it is. Fans see good production in college and presume it will just translate to the NFL. Some times it does, some times it does not. Teams know we're talking about young people who may or may not make the transition from being coddled college players to dealing with full grown men in the NFL. Teams accept that it's a crap shot, whereas some fans stay butt hurt for years over it.

I think that's why you often see Bill draft a player and get a FA for the same position. Let them battle it out and end up with one who is capable,