cubedoggy said:
Unlike most teams, my feeling is that the Pats' draft is nearly prediction-proof.
We have a number of insightful, diligent draft posters here, yet few have even come close to getting our drafts right the past few years (no offense Big Mike and PatChick).
I'm all for draft discussion, but honestly, when it comes to a Pats draft, none of us really has any f-ing idea.
Well said.
To make a point of emphasis: The MOST critical and important requirement for 1st thru 3rd round picks is that they WILL stay on the roster and contribute. 1st thru 3rd picks CANNOT be wasted on potential or gambles. Teams that are trying to hit the jackpot with superstars end up with totally wasted picks. You can bet that the Patriots have this as their fundamental approach. It's not a secret. Drafting the 'best player available' translates for the Pats to mean 'drafting the strongest player available who is as close to a sure thing as they can determine". Bill Belichick has explicitly stated this and refers to the Giants' draft where they had an exceptional line backing corps anchored by Taylor and still took another linebacker with their draft pick - AND he refers to it as possibly the best pick they made with the Giants.
So can we really have ANY chance to 'guess' which player the Patriots will take ? The answer is simply - no. Other than tossing out every name in the top 50 - and even then, you have to be sure and mention all of them - example, Mankins.
There is obviously one main reason we can't figure it out. And that is, as has been mentioned a number of times, we don't have access to the nitty gritty film that the Patriots have access to. And we don't spend the hours and hours looking at hours and hours of video. And even if we did, we don't have the expertise to be looking for the minutiae that are the clues as to whether a player will be a solid contributer at the NFL level.
Teams that use the professional scouting services for their 1st thru 3rd round picks are pretty dumb and clueless. It doesn't take much to figure that out - look at ALL of the total busts that have been ranked in the top 10, 15, 30 over the last years by the scouting services. It boggles my mind that teams keep taking these gambles on players who had flashy careers in college.
How do the Patriots do? Pretty doggoned well. I'm not going to include 2000, because they were just getting started with their picking. But 2001 thru 2005 show that they have nailed it for rounds 1 thru 3.
!st round: ALL 6 on the team and ALL starters: Seymour, Warren, Graham, Wilfork, Watson, Graham.
2nd round: ALL 5 on the team and 3 starters: Wilson, Branch, Light and Bethel Johnson and Marquise Hill.
3rd round: Only 3 picks but all 3 still on the team. Potentially two starters in the future: Hobbs, Kaczur, and Gus Scott. Obviously Hobbs and Kaczur were important contributors with the injuries last year.
4th round: Gets MUCH more problematic. That's why I say rounds 1 thru 3 are so crucial. Only 4 out of 9 still on the roster - less than 50%. But, 4th round is still important. Jarvis Green and Asante Samuel are important players. Klecko and Sanders are perhaps borderline - but there have been any number of borderline players who became really important contributors later. Players who didn't work out: Davey, Cobb, Haloway, Kenyatta Jones
5th round: Not too bad. 2 out of 4: 1 starter - Koppen !! and Claridge still an unknown.
6th round: A bust. 0 of 3: Leonard Myers, Kingsbury, Arthur Love
7th round: 2 out of 9 left: Banta-Cain and Cassel.
The 2000 draft was interesting: It was a bust except for 6th and 7th round.
2nd - Klemm, 3rd - Redmon, 4th - Greg Robinson, 5th - Marriott, Stachelski, 6th - Nugent, Harris, Brady, 7th - Tisdale, Pass. The Patriots have obviously gotten better at getting players with the top round picks.
So when you are 'shopping' for which players the Patriots should draft in round 1 and 2 - look for the sure bets rather than players with even the slightest question marks. And don't even think about 'needs'.
And when you are picking, keep in mind which positions are the most 'iffy' as far as predicting whether they can start in the NFL, much less be top players. Iffy are QB, RB, CB, WR, and LB. Apparently regarded as less iffy for BB/SP are DL, OL, TE (cousins of OL), and general purpose DBs or S. WR appear to be a possibility in round 2 but then not until you get to garbage time - but don't hold your breath this year.
So if there is a solid lineman or TE at 21, look for that. If not, then look for a light college DE that was a VERY good run stopper AND quick (maybe a couple of these in 1st and 2nd). After that, look for an all purpose DB (eg a Jimmy Williams) or all purpose safety.
Isn't this fun - and, as has been pointed out, ultimately frustrating and useless.