There Is Very Little Discussion of the Draft

[JoeSixPat]

There Is Very Little Discussion of the Draft

Not true. 5,000 of NEM's 10,000 posts reference the Draft.

Of course, they're all in the Political Forum.

 

[mgteich]

Yup, we haven't a clue. So what! We never have a clue compared to the staff. We still discuss and argue. Isn't that what we're here for?

I think it was very useful for us to have the draft discussion last year, discussing at length needs at various positions, and find out that bb felt the need at OL more than most here. But make no mistake, several here begged for help at OL.

For me, it is much more about position than particular players. It is not even possible for us to really understand the abilities of individual players. We don't have the opportunity to view the tapes and the interviews, and so much more. The scouting reports that other teams use are somewhat helpful.

So for me, the question of whether we need a Day One TE, or ILB are more crucial that whether Lawson is better than Carpenter. I understand that these discussions are fun, but even so, they are usually only about the first round. We have few heated discussions about the which center is heads above the other in the 5th, and who would be a huge reach with first third.

It is also interesting to discuss philosophy (e.g. value grouping) and whether we have need for a 220 linebacker, a corner with an injury history or a backup Day One NT.

So, with a week to go, I still thaink we will have much to discuss (including transactions and their effect). Also, I don't think that I have seen no 3rd/4th round value boards, even though we have FOUR picks in that range.

Rook has given an excellent start for anyone for our 1st/2nd round boards. But even there, there has been little consensus building. I think that we had a pretty good board last year that we all had available for draft day, based on rook's value groupings.

 

[Brownfan80]

I've personally given up draft talk entirely this season. The past few years have shown that we fans know absolutely jack about the real gameplan in that front office, so what's the point? I'm just taking the 'wait and see what they'll actually do and then talk about THAT' stance.

 

[DarMan]

It's true, we know absolutely nothing but as free thinking people, we have opinions and mine have certainly changed over the past couple of weeks.

Here's my 2 cents on the Patriots draft:

1st round - I have been in the linebacker camp; be it Manny Lawson, Bobby Carpenter, Greenway or Wimberly but after thinking about it some more, I don;t think that is the direction we will go in for a couple of reasons.

I think that you should be looking for a first round pick to make a signifcant contribution in the first year and given the complexity of our defense and the role the linebacker is expected to play, it is difficult for a rookie to make an impact. It's even difficult for FA veterans coming in to play(i.e. Biesel and Brown)

I also think there is enough depth at linebacker that we can get an lb with the skills BB looks for in either the 2nd or 3rd round.

I also am not sold on any conerbacks being a value at 21 so we would need to move up and/or down to get the appropriate value for the pick.

Having said all that, I believe the best value at the 1 will be a RB and I think the pick will be L. Mauroney. He combines the size, skills and production that BB would look for. In many ways, reminds me of Curtis Martin.

As far as the 2nd pick, I think (if we don't swing a draft day deal for Stallworth) will be Maurice Stoval.

The 3rd round is where we will look for linebackers and I think we'll go to the well twice:

3a - Mark Anderson for depth at olb
3b - Oliver Hoyle or Gerris Wilkerson to groom as an inside backer.

Second day picks will be useed for depth at TE, NT and G/C.

 

[Aldogg]

I've personally given up draft talk entirely this season. The past few years have shown that we fans know absolutely jack about the real gameplan in that front office, so what's the point? I'm just taking the 'wait and see what they'll actually do and then talk about THAT' stance.

That my sentiments exactly. I have many friends who are asking me "Who are you guys taking?" and I tell them flat out "Belichick and Pioli make me look stupid with the picks they make." I am going to not even watch the draft, too busy working, I will find out when I get home who we picked and see what the reaction is here.

 

[chunkypony]

That stupid mock draft ruined the Draft Board. I'm kind of talked out anyway, though, about the draft - I think I'm just repeating myself now when I talk about it.

I agree. This is the worst part of the NFL year, I believe. The week before the draft (perhaps it ties with that extra week between the Championship games and the Super Bowl). I am just sick of the speculation, and I want to see the picks happen.

 

[shakadave]

It's true, we know absolutely nothing but as free thinking people, we have opinions and mine have certainly changed over the past couple of weeks.

Here's my 2 cents on the Patriots draft:

1st round - I have been in the linebacker camp; be it Manny Lawson, Bobby Carpenter, Greenway or Wimberly but after thinking about it some more, I don;t think that is the direction we will go in for a couple of reasons.

I think that you should be looking for a first round pick to make a signifcant contribution in the first year and given the complexity of our defense and the role the linebacker is expected to play, it is difficult for a rookie to make an impact. It's even difficult for FA veterans coming in to play(i.e. Biesel and Brown)

I also think there is enough depth at linebacker that we can get an lb with the skills BB looks for in either the 2nd or 3rd round.

I also am not sold on any conerbacks being a value at 21 so we would need to move up and/or down to get the appropriate value for the pick.

Having said all that, I believe the best value at the 1 will be a RB and I think the pick will be L. Mauroney. He combines the size, skills and production that BB would look for. In many ways, reminds me of Curtis Martin.

As far as the 2nd pick, I think (if we don't swing a draft day deal for Stallworth) will be Maurice Stoval.

The 3rd round is where we will look for linebackers and I think we'll go to the well twice:

3a - Mark Anderson for depth at olb
3b - Oliver Hoyle or Gerris Wilkerson to groom as an inside backer.

Second day picks will be useed for depth at TE, NT and G/C.

Well said, Dar. I've been in the Round 1 LB camp, but I'm starting to wake up in the night thinking about very talented RB's at 21. Someone to play Steven Jackson to Corey Dillon's Marshall Faulk.

 

[flutie2phelan]

Although i'm not in it, i think the mock is fine ... and appropriate.

Last time i scoped out that forum, though, it seemed to have metastasized threads.
A mock would seem to require only a picks thread, an administrative thread, and a trade-interest thread.

Draft chat can, and sould, co-exist with mock drafts.

 

[patchick]

Yup, we haven't a clue. So what! We never have a clue compared to the staff. We still discuss and argue. Isn't that what we're here for?

Amen. And I'll add something else...obsessing about the draft beforehand is what lets you analyze and appreciate it after the fact. Logan Mankins makes a whole lot more sense if you've already spent weeks futilely hunting for a CB, LB etc. worth the pick. (And the draft is so much more fun when you're able to dance around with glee saying "I can't believe we got XX in the 6th! What a steal!")

 

[shirtsleeve]

Although i'm not in it, i think the mock is fine ... and appropriate.

Last time i scoped out that forum, though, it seemed to have metastasized threads.
A mock would seem to require only a picks thread, an administrative thread, and a trade-interest thread.

Draft chat can, and sould, co-exist with mock drafts.

Well said f2p! I am all for the mock going on over there. Just would have been nice to sticky about 3 or 4 threads to the top for it, and let the other discussions flow.

 

[gomezcat]

Well said f2p! I am all for the mock going on over there. Just would have been nice to sticky about 3 or 4 threads to the top for it, and let the other discussions flow.

Threads should only be an issue where they are offensive or inappropriate in some way. I have never been guilty of that (nervous cough and splutter, avoidance of eye of contact, red face). I don't see what is wrong with the mock. It isn't killing bandwidth or offending anyone, so what's the problem? If I'm not interested in something, I ignore it. People should be thankful that we all live in countries where we can talk (pretty much) about what we want without fear of secret police.

 

[Pats726]

Yup, we haven't a clue. So what! We never have a clue compared to the staff. We still discuss and argue. Isn't that what we're here for?

So for me, the question of whether we need a Day One TE, or ILB are more crucial that whether Lawson is better than Carpenter. I understand that these discussions are fun, but even so, they are usually only about the first round. We have few heated discussions about the which center is heads above the other in the 5th, and who would be a huge reach with first third.

It is also interesting to discuss philosophy (e.g. value grouping) and whether we have need for a 220 linebacker, a corner with an injury history or a backup Day One NT.

So, with a week to go, I still thaink we will have much to discuss (including transactions and their effect). Also, I don't think that I have seen no 3rd/4th round value boards, even though we have FOUR picks in that range.

I do agree...we are way in the dark...just with a flashlight with batteries that work from time to time and a failing bulb. When one looks at how many teams miss on picks, it really makes one think of what a dartboard it all is. The Pats do seem to have a bit closer to throw the darts..through some incredible research and a real philosophy...but nonetheless..the fans are just so far behind. There is much to talk about..not just individual players but positions..as mentioned. Team needs..and value grouping...with so many picks in 4 rounds..they could come up with a ton of great players!!! Much to talk about...totally agree!!

 

[arrellbee]

Unlike most teams, my feeling is that the Pats' draft is nearly prediction-proof.

We have a number of insightful, diligent draft posters here, yet few have even come close to getting our drafts right the past few years (no offense Big Mike and PatChick).

I'm all for draft discussion, but honestly, when it comes to a Pats draft, none of us really has any f-ing idea.

Well said.

To make a point of emphasis: The MOST critical and important requirement for 1st thru 3rd round picks is that they WILL stay on the roster and contribute. 1st thru 3rd picks CANNOT be wasted on potential or gambles. Teams that are trying to hit the jackpot with superstars end up with totally wasted picks. You can bet that the Patriots have this as their fundamental approach. It's not a secret. Drafting the 'best player available' translates for the Pats to mean 'drafting the strongest player available who is as close to a sure thing as they can determine". Bill Belichick has explicitly stated this and refers to the Giants' draft where they had an exceptional line backing corps anchored by Taylor and still took another linebacker with their draft pick - AND he refers to it as possibly the best pick they made with the Giants.

So can we really have ANY chance to 'guess' which player the Patriots will take ? The answer is simply - no. Other than tossing out every name in the top 50 - and even then, you have to be sure and mention all of them - example, Mankins.

There is obviously one main reason we can't figure it out. And that is, as has been mentioned a number of times, we don't have access to the nitty gritty film that the Patriots have access to. And we don't spend the hours and hours looking at hours and hours of video. And even if we did, we don't have the expertise to be looking for the minutiae that are the clues as to whether a player will be a solid contributer at the NFL level.

Teams that use the professional scouting services for their 1st thru 3rd round picks are pretty dumb and clueless. It doesn't take much to figure that out - look at ALL of the total busts that have been ranked in the top 10, 15, 30 over the last years by the scouting services. It boggles my mind that teams keep taking these gambles on players who had flashy careers in college.

How do the Patriots do? Pretty doggoned well. I'm not going to include 2000, because they were just getting started with their picking. But 2001 thru 2005 show that they have nailed it for rounds 1 thru 3.

!st round: ALL 6 on the team and ALL starters: Seymour, Warren, Graham, Wilfork, Watson, Graham.

2nd round: ALL 5 on the team and 3 starters: Wilson, Branch, Light and Bethel Johnson and Marquise Hill.

3rd round: Only 3 picks but all 3 still on the team. Potentially two starters in the future: Hobbs, Kaczur, and Gus Scott. Obviously Hobbs and Kaczur were important contributors with the injuries last year.

4th round: Gets MUCH more problematic. That's why I say rounds 1 thru 3 are so crucial. Only 4 out of 9 still on the roster - less than 50%. But, 4th round is still important. Jarvis Green and Asante Samuel are important players. Klecko and Sanders are perhaps borderline - but there have been any number of borderline players who became really important contributors later. Players who didn't work out: Davey, Cobb, Haloway, Kenyatta Jones

5th round: Not too bad. 2 out of 4: 1 starter - Koppen !! and Claridge still an unknown.

6th round: A bust. 0 of 3: Leonard Myers, Kingsbury, Arthur Love

7th round: 2 out of 9 left: Banta-Cain and Cassel.

The 2000 draft was interesting: It was a bust except for 6th and 7th round.
2nd - Klemm, 3rd - Redmon, 4th - Greg Robinson, 5th - Marriott, Stachelski, 6th - Nugent, Harris, Brady, 7th - Tisdale, Pass. The Patriots have obviously gotten better at getting players with the top round picks.

So when you are 'shopping' for which players the Patriots should draft in round 1 and 2 - look for the sure bets rather than players with even the slightest question marks. And don't even think about 'needs'.

And when you are picking, keep in mind which positions are the most 'iffy' as far as predicting whether they can start in the NFL, much less be top players. Iffy are QB, RB, CB, WR, and LB. Apparently regarded as less iffy for BB/SP are DL, OL, TE (cousins of OL), and general purpose DBs or S. WR appear to be a possibility in round 2 but then not until you get to garbage time - but don't hold your breath this year.

So if there is a solid lineman or TE at 21, look for that. If not, then look for a light college DE that was a VERY good run stopper AND quick (maybe a couple of these in 1st and 2nd). After that, look for an all purpose DB (eg a Jimmy Williams) or all purpose safety.

Isn't this fun - and, as has been pointed out, ultimately frustrating and useless.

 

[PatsSteve1]

I'll be happy when it's after the draft and the talk will be about who the Patriots drafted rather than who they might draft. Who the Patriots might draft is futile. I admit it. I have no idea who they'll draft. I know what positions I'd like taken, but who those players are, I have no idea who they'll take.

 

[Feep_FLA]

Arrellbee, Wow! That was an awesome post....... Brilliant! Just brilliant. I have been saying for weeks now they will draft the highest rated players, regardless of position, in the first 3 rounds..... Then they seem to target need somewhat... If Mangold is they're highest rated player they like at 21 he'll be picked. I like that philosophy and looking at rounds 1 and 2 for the last 5 years its tough to argue against it. Great post, Arrellbee.....:rocker:

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Threads should only be an issue where they are offensive or inappropriate in some way. I have never been guilty of that (nervous cough and splutter, avoidance of eye of contact, red face).

How are those symptoms different from your baesline?

 

[gomezcat]

How are those symptoms different from your baesline?

. Ah, you mean my baseline Brad Pitt good looks, my Pythonesque genius comedy, my rocket scientist IQ, my mastery of the ENGLISH language and my 3.9 40 time?

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

. Ah, you mean my baseline Brad Pitt good looks, my Pythonesque genius comedy, my rocket scientist IQ, my mastery of the ENGLISH language and my 3.9 40 time?

I never did understand snake humor and 3.9 hours for 40 mm or cm? Also, for someone so snobbish about their English, how come you keep writing in American? I'll grant you the Brad Pitt resemblance, though in Brad's case he is lucky to have nature to rely on, I guess someone with your IQ can afford to let things develop in new directions.

 

[gomezcat]

I never did understand snake humor and 3.9 hours for 40 mm or cm? Also, for someone so snobbish about their English, how come you keep writing in American? I'll grant you the Brad Pitt resemblance, though in Brad's case he is lucky to have nature to rely on, I guess someone with your IQ can afford to let things develop in new directions.

My 40 time refers to micrometres and the 3.9 is days. I ain't speaking no American, bud. American sucks anyways and right now I have a limey sense of humor, already.
As for my IQ, it is that of a kid playing with fireworks, which is technically a rocket scientist.

Time to get back on topic before the thread police stitch me up for attempted thread murder in the first degree.

I'd love the Pats to draft a good edge rusher and outside run sealer, someone to learn from Tedy, a couple of nasty O linemen, a psychopath at safety (if you can't stick to 'em like glue, knock the snot out of them when you catch up!), a kicker, a long term Corey prospect and depth at receiver (like a deep threat who understands that going deep is also about catching the ball).

 

[nickw308810]

The 2000 draft was interesting: It was a bust except for 6th and 7th round.
2nd - Klemm, 3rd - Redmon, 4th - Greg Robinson, 5th - Marriott, Stachelski, 6th - Nugent, Harris, Brady, 7th - Tisdale, Pass. The Patriots have obviously gotten better at getting players with the top round picks.

JR Redmon maybe didn't become what we would have hoped, but he sure had a great drive against the Rams and we wouldn't have won the Super Bowl without him. I would take him off the bust list just because of that series. Antwan Harris also took the pitch from Brown and scored a crucial TD against the Steelers. Sure, that is all he did for us, but it definitely was enough. Especially for a 6th rounder.

I also wanted to say that just because last year didn't go as we planned draft wise, doesn't mean people should give up learning about it and discussing it. Most people liked Mankins and wanted to draft him, but there is no way we could know that other teams valued him that high and if we didn't draft him in the 1st we would have missed on him. Through everyone's knowledge on this site I don't expect many picks that will surprise us anymore. And we keep discussing the draft until it happens, in case there is anything we missed. Belichick values players just as we do, and we cant know his exact rankings, but we can figure out our needs, and which players fit our system best.