The Value Of A First Round Draft Choice

[mgteich]

We often talk about the value of a 1st round draft choice as a constant instead of realizing that a 1st rounder could be worth anything from 3 firsts to a high second rounder.
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When a playoff quality team trades a first, it is expected to be in the bottom 12, after the top 20 where the likely 1st round quality players will be drafted. This year we understood that we would be lucky to get any of the top 7 RT's or any of the top EDGE rushers. Our first was very unlikely to get a player with 1st round ratings.
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Going into the draft, we talked about the value of a veteran and whether he is worth a 2nd or 1st. It matters a lot which first we are discussing. If staff thought that RT was not likely to be there and we could get an EDGE rusher in the 2nd (with a trade up, I could see us trading that 1st for a top veteran. We tried and now will likely need to trade a much, much, much lower value 2028 pick.

 

[BennyBledsoe]

The value of draft picks are in two factors.... you're getting first crack at molding guys you like into serviceable players. That's not insignificant.

And the second, which becomes slightly more valuable the more successful you become, is the cost control. If you're a successful team, you probably will have a few players who absolutely eat up your salary cap. Hitting on draft picks becomes a huge deal because now you need to find a way to keep the talent flowing when you don't have the money to get the big free agent names or to keep complementary pieces.

The guys who are worth trading first round picks for are not usually available. And will also usually cost a lot since the team trading that player likely has guys eating up their cap. AND there's the same worry that the guy won't work out with your team.