The Value Of A First Round Draft Choice

[mgteich]

We often talk about the value of a 1st round draft choice as a constant instead of realizing that a 1st rounder could be worth anything from 3 firsts to a high second rounder.
==========
When a playoff quality team trades a first, it is expected to be in the bottom 12, after the top 20 where the likely 1st round quality players will be drafted. This year we understood that we would be lucky to get any of the top 7 RT's or any of the top EDGE rushers. Our first was very unlikely to get a player with 1st round ratings.
=========
Going into the draft, we talked about the value of a veteran and whether he is worth a 2nd or 1st. It matters a lot which first we are discussing. If staff thought that RT was not likely to be there and we could get an EDGE rusher in the 2nd (with a trade up, I could see us trading that 1st for a top veteran. We tried and now will likely need to trade a much, much, much lower value 2028 pick.

 

[BennyBledsoe]

The value of draft picks are in two factors.... you're getting first crack at molding guys you like into serviceable players. That's not insignificant.

And the second, which becomes slightly more valuable the more successful you become, is the cost control. If you're a successful team, you probably will have a few players who absolutely eat up your salary cap. Hitting on draft picks becomes a huge deal because now you need to find a way to keep the talent flowing when you don't have the money to get the big free agent names or to keep complementary pieces.

The guys who are worth trading first round picks for are not usually available. And will also usually cost a lot since the team trading that player likely has guys eating up their cap. AND there's the same worry that the guy won't work out with your team.

 

[mgteich]

. AND there's the same worry that the guy won't work out with your team.

If this is even close to true, you should never trade more than a 6th for a player.

To some, it is far, far, far more likely that an established top veteran will work out well with your team than a rookie.

 

[Wozzy]

Trading draft picks for players is always, at least for smart teams, player and contract dependent.

A vet player with a few years left on his existing deal is worth more in return than the same exact vet with no years left who wants a new contract.

Why? Because you not only have to trade for said player, but you have to pay him as well... you just paid twice for the same player. You could have just drafted his replacement with that pick and had a player for the next four years on a cost controlled contract.

Trading picks for picks is pretty straightforward, there's a chart and people usually stick to it... unless they're willing to slightly overpay to get a specific player.

I argued with multiple posters before the draft they would take an offensive tackle in the first, even though on paper they didn't necessarily need a starter. Posters looked at "need" more than best player available and the scarcity of quality tackles. I didn't expect the trade up in the first, but also didn't expect Lomu to still be on the board. If they overpaid a little but Lomu becomes a stud it won't matter, fans put too much value on draft picks and not enough on team building. The goal is build the best team, not win ESPN's draft grades.

Not for nothing, but one the people arguing with me edge was the biggest need on day one asked at 9am on day two who I thought they'd take at edge. I said there were only two guys worth it in that round who I gave a first round grade, one was Gabe Jacas, I even predicted they might trade up again to grab one of these guys... otherwise they should probably take another position.

I'll take my flowers now...

 

[Real fan 02]

Trading draft picks for players is always, at least for smart teams, player and contract dependent.

A vet player with a few years left on his existing deal is worth more in return than the same exact vet with no years left who wants a new contract.

Why? Because you not only have to trade for said player, but you have to pay him as well... you just paid twice for the same player. You could have just drafted his replacement with that pick and had a player for the next four years on a cost controlled contract.

Trading picks for picks is pretty straightforward, there's a chart and people usually stick to it... unless they're willing to slightly overpay to get a specific player.

I argued with multiple posters before the draft they would take an offensive tackle in the first, even though on paper they didn't necessarily need a starter. Posters looked at "need" more than best player available and the scarcity of quality tackles. I didn't expect the trade up in the first, but also didn't expect Lomu to still be on the board. If they overpaid a little but Lomu becomes a stud it won't matter, fans put too much value on draft picks and not enough on team building. The goal is build the best team, not win ESPN's draft grades.

Not for nothing, but one the people arguing with me edge was the biggest need on day one asked at 9am on day two who I thought they'd take at edge. I said there were only two guys worth it in that round who I gave a first round grade, one was Gabe Jacas, I even predicted they might trade up again to grab one of these guys... otherwise they should probably take another position.

I'll take my flowers now...

According to Wolf they saw Lomu as one of the 7 best OTs and didn't want to lose out on him.. so they look him first.. I'm fine with it.. OT and edge were Needs addressed in the first 2 rounds.

 

[Real fan 02]

We often talk about the value of a 1st round draft choice as a constant instead of realizing that a 1st rounder could be worth anything from 3 firsts to a high second rounder.
==========
When a playoff quality team trades a first, it is expected to be in the bottom 12, after the top 20 where the likely 1st round quality players will be drafted. This year we understood that we would be lucky to get any of the top 7 RT's or any of the top EDGE rushers. Our first was very unlikely to get a player with 1st round ratings.
=========
Going into the draft, we talked about the value of a veteran and whether he is worth a 2nd or 1st. It matters a lot which first we are discussing. If staff thought that RT was not likely to be there and we could get an EDGE rusher in the 2nd (with a trade up, I could see us trading that 1st for a top veteran. We tried and now will likely need to trade a much, much, much lower value 2028 pick.

Don't you love this first round draft pick...

 

[mgteich]

According to Wolf they saw Lomu as one of the 7 best OTs and didn't want to lose out on him.. so they look him first.. I'm fine with it.. OT and edge were Needs addressed in the first 2 rounds.

I agree.

We drafted the very best OT that we could. Staff will work this year and next to complete the OL of Maye's future.

And yes, I do want Lomu to be the 2026 backup at RT. This allows a lot of flexibility. We will have Lomu and Brown as our GameDay backups plus whichever player the staff want to add at the time. (The 8th OL is an "extra" active player as is the 3rd QB).

This allows us to develop an OG and an OT without expecting them to be getting any reps, except perhaps on ST's.

 

[rkarp1]

I believe the trade up in the first round and the second round told us that the Pats believed after 7 OT's, which many of us had said prior to the draft, there was a significant drop off. With Jacas as well...we should assume after him, the Pats had a drafstic drop off at edge

they can boast that they "got their guy" with both picks, and perhaps they did, but given where they were situated at the back of each round, they got the guys that were left on their board, not the guys at the top of their board.

I like both players, both players, but if they were not still there, I could easily see the Pats trading back, or out into next years draft

 

[JoeSixPat]

There's a few ways of looking at this question and you kindof need to separate the first 3 rounds from the last 4

Obviously the higher one drafts the higher the likelihood of getting a starter

There's also a "hit rate" per position, per draft seelcton, which is higher for things like OL and much worse for other positions - though certain teams have to factor in "need" for those positions as well.

The draft value chart does factor this in of course, but one has to overlay the position one is drafting, and whether you are drafting for need or depth, as after pick 100 things REALLY drop off in terms of finding starters.

I get the sense that after a certain point in the draft (3rd round?) Belichick would draft for quantity rather than quality as he seemed to know that really, it's a complete crap shoot

Then if you are looking at the draft value chart comparing say, #16 (worth 1000) to drafting at the end of the 3rd (100 pts) are you better off taking one player in the middle of the first round or 10 players at the end of the 3rd/start of the 4th?

Obviously drafting in the 1st and 3rd/4th are VERY different but is it worth taking a chance on 10 players where you think there's a 30% chance of finding a starter or major contributor? Then that comes down to whether you want/need 1 starter or 3 depending on position if you are estimating value.

Personally I think there's a LOT of value in drafting in quantity in the 3rd and 4th depending on positional need.

With the Dynasty Patriot teams we had nearly all our starters set, so I tended to feel that trading back was often a good way to go to find backups and starters a year or two down the line - great for a strong team, and it makes sense to trade back. But for a rebuilding team, where you can't afford to take 1st and 2nd rounders who are busts, you have to go with more of a sure thing, trade up if anything.

NFL Draft 2026 By Position: Hit Rates And Draft Value

NFL Draft 2026 guide breaking down historical hit rates and positional value by round, from quarterbacks to Day 2 sleepers.

rg.org

2026 NFL Trade Value Chart | Drafttek

 

[40yrpatsfan]

We often talk about the value of a 1st round draft choice as a constant instead of realizing that a 1st rounder could be worth anything from 3 firsts to a high second rounder.
==========
When a playoff quality team trades a first, it is expected to be in the bottom 12, after the top 20 where the likely 1st round quality players will be drafted. This year we understood that we would be lucky to get any of the top 7 RT's or any of the top EDGE rushers. Our first was very unlikely to get a player with 1st round ratings.
=========
Going into the draft, we talked about the value of a veteran and whether he is worth a 2nd or 1st. It matters a lot which first we are discussing. If staff thought that RT was not likely to be there and we could get an EDGE rusher in the 2nd (with a trade up, I could see us trading that 1st for a top veteran. We tried and now will likely need to trade a much, much, much lower value 2028 pick.

The trade value charts take this into account. It's a valuable tool even for figuring out trade value for an AJ Brown. When looking at other past deals where a 1st or 2nd was used for a receiver, you can look at where that pick was to occur if known at the time of the trade, or where it was likely to occur if way into the future. But you're right that people talk about "a first" like they're all equal, you really have to gauge it by where in the 1st round.