The optimistic case for Mac Jones

[crawhammer]

And Brady went to a Tampa team that was mega talented outside of the QB position in 2020, so what?

I thought it's all about "team"? Now you're saying a "mega team" is only worth 7 wins without an elite quarterback. Good point actually, Brady took a 7-win mega team and turned them into a Super Bowl champion in one season. You're finally catching on.

 

[crawhammer]

Lamar Jackson hasn't improved as a passer at all, he has won a single playoff game in his entire career and his team doesn't want to pay him.

Baltimore knows they suck without Lamar. They offered him a massive contract, but because they didn't guarantee every penny, Lamar told them to take a walk. I hope he gets tagged and traded but Baltimore will probably cave in first and give him what he wants (unless he's dead set on never playing another down in a Ravens uniform).

 

[crawhammer]

you are there arguing about his magic powers

Yeah, pretty much, when in 21 seasons a quarterback plays in 10 Super Bowls, wins 7 (6 with game-winning drives), and is named MVP 5x... that's uniquely extraordinary.

 

[Kasmir]

I thought it's all about "team"? Now you're saying a "mega team" is only worth 7 wins without an elite quarterback. Good point actually, Brady took a 7-win mega team and turned them into a Super Bowl champion in one season. You're finally catching on.

Evans and Godwin were probably the best pair of receivers Brady ever played with, but Brady also recruited Gronkowski, Antonio Brown and Fournette to Tampa. Gronkowski's departure from the Pats after 2018 was a huge loss for the Pats, and Kraft's jettisoning of Antonio Brown finished off the 2019 Pats offense. The 2019 Tampa passing offense was comparable to the 2019 Pats passing offense with Brady (18th by DVOA vs 15th). So adding Brady + Gronk + Antonio Brown + Fournette to Tampa made a decent offense great. If Gronk and Antonio Brown had played in 2019 there would very likely had been another NE Superbowl win given how good the defense and special teams were.

Tampa's success was hardly all about Brady -- other than his recruiting cachet that brought the GOAT TE out of retirement. And the 2019 Tampa defense was almost as good as the 2019 Pats defense (6th vs 1st by DVOA). Hence the Superbowl campaign.

 

[RIpats88]

He made a point about Brady making offensive lines better throughout his career. Hard to argue that one. Manning did. Marino did. Quick read/release QBs who can diagnose plays and have quick footwork will do that.

You then brought up an extreme example of a game where the o-line was so bad (due to injuries, tipped play calls, elite pass rush.). This is MAC10 level stuff. Of course he wasn’t arguing that Brady can go out there with five obese working dads against the 85 Bears and make it work. It doesn’t take away from the overall point.

Similar argument to:

Michael Jordan made the Bulls into champions.

BUT ONE TIME I SAW HIM AND HE WAS TERRIBLE AND MISSED A FOUL SHOT TO LOSE! YOU’RE WRONG!

It's also on the play designs and coaching to have quick hitters if your OL is trash. If there's no plays in the playbook. What you gonna do?

Per Curran and many of the other media reviewing the film, the receivers were still running their routes when the DL got to Mac. But when you have coaches who just "call plays" rather than coaching the flow of the game that's what you get.

Our offense last year was basically Madden "here's the plays we are gonna run. Be damned if there are any adjustments to what the defense is doing/flow of the game"

 

[RIpats88]

His arm was absolutely better this year compared to year one, but he's not ever going to be Josh Allen or Justin Herbert. It's just not who he is.

And two of those three in Week 17 weren't exactly his fault. He threw to the endzone on a 3rd-and-19 play where they needed a touchdown, not a field goal. He made a decent throw to Henry where he kept it high where only Henry could get it, but it sailed a little high and went off Henry's fingertips.



The other just went off Damien Harris' hands:



The first one to Agholor was supposed to go like the one he threw in Pittsburgh, that one he didn't get enough arc on, so I guess you could make the argument there on that one being on him. Although looking at it now, he sort of slowed up and was interfered with...which I had forgotten about.



But that game, in retrospect - especially the first half - was a really good one for him and a reason to be somewhat optimistic on him heading into next year. Sort of crazy to think if you take away the 14 special teams TD points, he played well enough that it might have turned out differently.

Mac was fine that buffalo game. Actually really good in the first half when they decided to introduce play action for the first time with him.

I feel like it gets ignored and discounted that Mac improved vastly after the bears game he wasn't horrible all year. His last 10 games or so in 2022 had better stats than his last 10 games or so of 2021. He had more tds, less picks and a good passing percentage. People are just looking at his horrible first half. He made it work in the horrible constructs of that offense. Can he build on that second half and actually improve with a real OC and QB coach is the question that needs to be answered.

If you take out the horrible last play against the raiders, Stevenson's fumble on the goal line and the special teams giving buffalo 14 points and defense being a sieve we probably win 10 games and make the playoffs with NOW knowing how bad the offense was and dysfunction in the coaching staff. That's something to be optimistic about.

 

[RIpats88]

Evans and Godwin were probably the best pair of receivers Brady ever played with, but Brady also recruited Gronkowski, Antonio Brown and Fournette to Tampa. Gronkowski's departure from the Pats after 2018 was a huge loss for the Pats, and Kraft's jettisoning of Antonio Brown finished off the 2019 Pats offense. The 2019 Tampa passing offense was comparable to the 2019 Pats passing offense with Brady (18th by DVOA vs 15th). So adding Brady + Gronk + Antonio Brown + Fournette to Tampa made a decent offense great. If Gronk and Antonio Brown had played in 2019 there would very likely had been another NE Superbowl win given how good the defense and special teams were.

Tampa's success was hardly all about Brady -- other than his recruiting cachet that brought the GOAT TE out of retirement. And the 2019 Tampa defense was almost as good as the 2019 Pats defense (6th vs 1st by DVOA). Hence the Superbowl campaign.

look, Brady is my favorite player of all time.

but for some reason the argument here is that them winning the superbowl in 2020 was all brady and he dragged the team kicking and screaming to the superbowl. yet brady/bucs struggling in 2022 is explained by the same people as being due to poor coaching and talent on the roster compared to 2020.

seems very contradictory? so which is it? i'm not sure the obsession some posters have of pushing the narrative that some of these teams had no talent and brady dragged them to the superbowl. its still a team game even the GOAT has his limits of how far he can drag a team as we saw in 2006 and 2019 as well when he was gifted with poor offenses.

facts are that the Bucs had a pretty good roster in 2020 that brady went to. and he brought in Gronk/AB and a bunch of veterans signed up to add to that talent. Now, it is impressive that he was able to get that team to gel and win a superbowl in the first year. Alot of that is on brady, because sometimes talent doesnt = wins if there is no buy in, especially with brady going to a new offense. But lets not pretend the Bucs didnt have a very good roster in 2020

 

[sb1]

I’m looking forward to BB’s book after he retires where he’ll hopefully explain his thinking behind the Patricia and Judge fiasco last season. I still can’t figure that out.

 

[Triumph]

His arm was absolutely better this year compared to year one, but he's not ever going to be Josh Allen or Justin Herbert. It's just not who he is.

And two of those three in Week 17 weren't exactly his fault. He threw to the endzone on a 3rd-and-19 play where they needed a touchdown, not a field goal. He made a decent throw to Henry where he kept it high where only Henry could get it, but it sailed a little high and went off Henry's fingertips.



The other just went off Damien Harris' hands:



The first one to Agholor was supposed to go like the one he threw in Pittsburgh, that one he didn't get enough arc on, so I guess you could make the argument there on that one being on him. Although looking at it now, he sort of slowed up and was interfered with...which I had forgotten about.



But that game, in retrospect - especially the first half - was a really good one for him and a reason to be somewhat optimistic on him heading into next year. Sort of crazy to think if you take away the 14 special teams TD points, he played well enough that it might have turned out differently.

OMG

The pass to Harris was off target and Harris could only get 1 hand on it. Look at the arch on the ball on the Henry INT. That pass needs to have VELOCITY on it if you're going to tempt fate and try a big boy throw into that coverage. Jones tried to beat coverage with his pop gun arm. Corky threw the ball out of Parkers reach. It had the distance only to the wrong color jersey.

Corkys arm is not OK. He is a back up QB at best and has no business starting in the Pros.

 

[sb1]

OMG

The pass to Harris was off target and Harris could only get 1 hand on it. Look at the arch on the ball on the Henry INT. That pass needs to have VELOCITY on it if you're going to tempt fate and try a big boy throw into that coverage. Jones tried to beat coverage with his pop gun arm. Corky threw the ball out of Parkers reach. It had the distance only to the wrong color jersey.

Corkys arm is not OK. He is a back up QB at best and has no business starting in the Pros.

If that's true then the Patriots need to find the next guy before Bill runs out of time because that would mean they do not have a starting caliber QB on the roster.

 

[Steve102]

I’m looking forward to BB’s book after he retires where he’ll hopefully explain his thinking behind the Patricia and Judge fiasco last season. I still can’t figure that out.

There's (hopefully) a lot of info in there about the Corner That Must Not Be Named, the varies gates, FM/JJ, details on Brady that he's just now starting to talk about, like how he saw the field. Can't wait.

 

[Triumph]

If that's true then the Patriots need to find the next guy before Bill runs out of time because that would mean they do not have a starting caliber QB on the roster.

Zappe needs another chance.

The offense responded to him and he has acted like a Pro through all of this.

 

[sb1]

Zappe needs another chance.

The offense responded to him and he has acted like a Pro through all of this.

Any backup caliber QB could have done what Zappe did in that 4 game stretch. Even Mike White had a game where he threw for over 400 yards and looked a lot better than Zappe did at any time. That's what backup caliber QB's do. They're good in small doses but that's it. Don't really care to see a little backup caliber QB with no arm get a dozen balls batted down a game for 17 games. Once was enough.

If Mac isn't the guy then the Patriots are back to 2020 and on the QB purgatory merry go round.

 

[Sicilian]

Any backup caliber QB could have done what Zappe did in that 4 game stretch. Even Mike White had a game where he threw for over 400 yards and looked a lot better than Zappe did at any time. That's what backup caliber QB's do. They're good in small doses but that's it. Don't really care to see a little backup caliber QB with no arm get a dozen balls batted down a game. Once was enough.

If Mac isn't the guy then the Patriots are back to 2020 and on the QB purgatory merry go round.

And this is the year to find that out. I believe they have to make a decision on a 5th year option for Mac after this coming season. It's also usually after the third season that teams who have found their guy give them big extensions. Either way, it's important for them to find out what they have in Mac in 2023, which is why the O'Brien hire was a really important one. He's going to bring a level of professional stability to the operation so that you know - if Mac fails to prove himself - it won't be because of dysfunction around him (assuming they also shore up the OL to a reasonable level).

If they find out Mac isn't the guy this year, then you're right. It's back to the well. Barring a great vet suddenly being available via trade, you draft a kid and let Zappe compete for the job with a rookie in 2024. Sucks that we'd be in that mode, but that's reality for most NFL teams I guess.

 

[sb1]

And this is the year to find that out. I believe they have to make a decision on a 5th year option for Mac after this coming season. It's also usually after the third season that teams who have found their guy give them big extensions. Either way, it's important for them to find out what they have in Mac in 2023, which is why the O'Brien hire was a really important one. He's going to bring a level of professional stability to the operation so that you know - if Mac fails to prove himself - it won't be because of dysfunction around him (assuming they also shore up the OL to a reasonable level).

If they find out Mac isn't the guy this year, then you're right. It's back to the well. Barring a great vet suddenly being available via trade, you draft a kid and let Zappe compete for the job with a rookie in 2024. Sucks that we'd be in that mode, but that's reality for most NFL teams I guess.

Yup. If he can't do well with O'Brien then his seat gets really warm and some hard questions will need to be asked.

QB purgatory sucks. The division went through it for the last 2 decades while Brady was here and that's why there was no prolonged division threat to the Patriots during that time.

 

[Triumph]

Any backup caliber QB could have done what Zappe did in that 4 game stretch. Even Mike White had a game where he threw for over 400 yards and looked a lot better than Zappe did at any time. That's what backup caliber QB's do. They're good in small doses but that's it. Don't really care to see a little backup caliber QB with no arm get a dozen balls batted down a game for 17 games. Once was enough.

If Mac isn't the guy then the Patriots are back to 2020 and on the QB purgatory merry go round.

Any backup could have beat the string of bum teams that Jones won against in 2021.

A few games is not enough to evaluate Zappe but 2 seasons is enough to know what Jones is.

 

[Ollie]

OMG

The pass to Harris was off target and Harris could only get 1 hand on it. Look at the arch on the ball on the Henry INT. That pass needs to have VELOCITY on it if you're going to tempt fate and try a big boy throw into that coverage. Jones tried to beat coverage with his pop gun arm. Corky threw the ball out of Parkers reach. It had the distance only to the wrong color jersey.

Corkys arm is not OK. He is a back up QB at best and has no business starting in the Pros.

Why do you think Bill disagrees with you?

 

[Ian]

Zappe needs another chance.

The offense responded to him and he has acted like a Pro through all of this.

He's got a worse arm than Mac - so if you're hoping for better there, he's not there yet. Maybe that'll change, but that wasn't the case this past season.

 

[sb1]

Any backup could have beat the string of bum teams that Jones won against in 2021.

A few games is not enough to evaluate Zappe but 2 seasons is enough to know what Jones is.

Sure. Jones was a ROTY candidate in his first season. That's a meaningful sample size and it's also superior to a 4 game stretch where another guy was good (barely) in one game out of 4.

Last season Mac had no coaching and he was still getting better toward the end of the season. Maybe Zappe had an impact there and Mac was hearing footsteps who knows. But he did look like a QB that can compete with the Bills for the first time in his career against that team.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Any backup could have beat the string of bum teams that Jones won against in 2021.

Wrong

2 seasons is enough to know what Jones is.

No it isn't. Last year the scheming, gameplanning, playcalling and coaching on offense was a complete joke.

If Tom was here he would have lost his ****.