The Official 'Trade Brady' Debate Thread - Do Not Start Another One

[Synovia]

LOL. OK, so for dollar for dollar, you'd rather have Matt Cassel than Tom Brady? I think you've made my point.

If Tom Brady isn't going to come back to Pre-Injury levels, Hell yes, I would rather waste a couple million dollars on the cap this year to save significant amounts over the next 5, and guarantee that we have a starting QB.

 

[Synovia]

Right, yup the overall would be 5 million. My bad. Still, its $10 million of dead money. That's stupid.

Keeping a player because of sunk cost is stupid. The money is already gone, whether Tom Brady can play or not.

 

[JSn]

If Tom Brady isn't going to come back to Pre-Injury levels, Hell yes, I would rather waste a couple million dollars on the cap this year to save significant amounts over the next 5, and guarantee that we have a starting QB.

My concern is Brady being gun-shy now. I don't question that he'll be healed up, probably by camp.

But if there's a realistic assumption his playing will level down, a solid QB, versed in the system with high mobility, low wear-and-tear, and 5 years younger seems like a steal.

 

[Deus Irae]

Exactly my point. Thanks for making it. Financial repurcussions are non existant. Brady is slated to make $15M this year. You trade him and theres $10M of dead cap. Thats a $5M savings.

You sign cassel to a deal similar to Shaub's: 6 years, 50M. You give him $20m guaranteed. Cap hits are as follows:

2009: $1M+5M = $6M
2010: $2M+5M = $7M
2011: $4M+5M = $9M
2012: $6M+5M = $11M
2013: $8M =$8M
2014: $9M =$9M
------------------------
$50M


Costs you $1M over Brady this year, saves you $5M next year, probably $10M over brady in '11, etc. The numbers could be massaged and moved around, they could use roster bonuses to make it more friendly. But the idea that they can't afford it is ridiculous.

I do believe that you are trying to circumvent the 30% rule with your numbers.

 

[BradyManny]

If Tom Brady isn't going to come back to Pre-Injury levels, Hell yes, I would rather waste a couple million dollars on the cap this year to save significant amounts over the next 5, and guarantee that we have a starting QB.

Significant amounts over the next 5 years? Brady is under contract for 2 years.

And name me a QB who had an ACL injury that didn't return to form. As documented in this thread, Palmer, McNabb and Rivers all came back to have equal or better seasons after their ACL injuries, which by the way, all occurred well after Brady's did in the timeline of the season.

 

[BradyManny]

My concern is Brady being gun-shy now. I don't question that he'll be healed up, probably by camp.

He's played through a sports hernia, has played through a shoulder injury on his throwing arm (which, to a QB, is probably scarier than a knee injury) amongst other injuries. Again, QBs have come back strong from ACL injuries.

This panic is unjustified.

Let's wait a few months and everything will be A-OK.

 

[Synovia]

Significant amounts over the next 5 years? Brady is under contract for 2 years.

And name me a QB who had an ACL injury that didn't return to form. As documented in this thread, Palmer, McNabb and Rivers all came back to have equal or better seasons after their ACL injuries, which by the way, all occurred well after Brady's did in the timeline of the season.

Palmer, and Rivers are impossible to say that with though. They were both still young, and both still improving. We have no idea what Palmer or River's peaks would have been if they hadn't been hurt. Plus, both were younger than Brady, and younger people heal better. Lewin's projection has Rivers at about the same projection as Peyton Manning. Rivers is good, but hes not Peyton. Now, theres no way to say he was going to hit that projection in the first place, but theres also no way to say whether or not the injury effected that.



As to the 5 years, Brady has 2 years left, but if he's extending his deal, its going to be at a raise. He's going to want Manning-Money, $20M a year range. So yes, I stand by a savings of $10M a year over the next 5 years.

 

[Deus Irae]

Palmer, and Rivers are impossible to say that with though. They were both still young, and both still improving. We have no idea what Palmer or River's peaks would have been if they hadn't been hurt. Plus, both were younger than Brady, and younger people heal better.



As to the 5 years, Brady has 2 years left, but if he's extending his deal, its going to be at a raise. He's going to want Manning-Money, $20M a year range. So yes, I stand by a savings of $10M a year over the next 5 years.

You are making numbers up, nothing more. Furthermore, you are using numbers that aren't allowed under the terms of the CBA.

 

[Miguel]

FWIW - Brady's 3 million roster bonus is due on the 1st day of free agency (February 27th) making his 2009 dead money hit even larger ($13,340,000) if any trade of Brady takes place after that day.

Please note that I do not think that Brady will be traded. Nor I do think that he should be traded.

I now think that the Patriots will be responsible for the $3 million roster bonus even if Brady is traded on the 27th. From reading what happened with Shaun Rogers last year it appears that the player is due the roster bonus if he is on the roster at the beginning of the day. If my take is correct trading Brady would be a dead money hit of $13,340,000.

 

[Synovia]

You are making numbers up, nothing more. Furthermore, you are using numbers that aren't allowed under the terms of the CBA.

Roster Bonus's don't count under the 30% rule. There are plenty of ways to get those same cap numbers with Roster Bonuses instead of salary increases.

 

[BradyManny]

As to the 5 years, Brady has 2 years left, but if he's extending his deal, its going to be at a raise. He's going to want Manning-Money, $20M a year range. So yes, I stand by a savings of $10M a year over the next 5 years.

If he comes back healthy, he's more than worthy of whatever contract he gets on his extension, and we wouldn't want to trade him.

If he doesn't come back healthy, he won't yield anything in trade, so its a moot point.

Matt Cassel is healthy, his perceived value will never be higher and is likely higher than his actual value, and he will receive something in trade.

Please put 2 and 2 together. I'm done with this thread.

 

[Miguel]

Roster Bonus's don't count under the 30% rule. There are plenty of ways to get those same cap numbers with Roster Bonuses instead of salary increases.

Yes, they do.

 

[Deus Irae]

Roster Bonus's don't count under the 30% rule. There are plenty of ways to get those same cap numbers with Roster Bonuses instead of salary increases.

Nevrmind: Miguel beat me to it.

 

[Synovia]

Yes, they do.

Ok, I'm sure theres a way to get a $6-7M hit in the first year of a 6 year $50M deal.


Actually, just did the math out. If he started at 2.36M and had a 30% raise each year (just under 30), he'd have a 7.36M cap hit this year and 8.05 cap hit next year, max out at 10.2M cap hit in 2012, and have a 8.8M cap hit in 2014. (bonus prorated over 4)


50M, 20M bonus, 6 years.


COsting us (using Miguel's 13M number on Brady) about 6M over Brady this year, saving $2.5M next year, and then having a good QB under contract for the 4 years after that at 9M AAV, which is about half of what Brady is going to get for that time period, whether hes 100% or not.

 

[Deus Irae]

Ok, I'm sure theres a way to get a $6-7M hit in the first year of a 6 year $50M deal.


Actually, just did the math out. If he started at 2.36M and had a 30% raise each year (just under 30), he'd have a 7.36M cap hit this year and 8.05 cap hit next year, max out at 10.2M cap hit in 2012, and have a 8.8M cap hit in 2014. (bonus prorated over 4)


50M, 20M bonus, 6 years.


COsting us (using Miguel's 13M number on Brady) about 6M over Brady this year, saving $2.5M next year, and then having a good QB under contract for the 4 years after that at 9M AAV, which is about half of what Brady is going to get for that time period, whether hes 100% or not.

Again, you're just making up numbers.

 

[Miguel]

Ok, I'm sure theres a way to get a $6-7M hit in the first year of a 6 year $50M deal.


Actually, just did the math out. If he started at 2.36M and had a 30% raise each year

It is not a 30% raise each year. A raise each year is limited to 30% of the total of the 2009 salary and roster bonus. If we use your 2.36 million number that would mean that every salary raise is limited to $708,000 or 30% of the $2.36 million.

BTW, signing bonuses can be prorated over 5 years this year.

 

[scout]

If he comes back healthy, he's more than worthy of whatever contract he gets on his extension, and we wouldn't want to trade him.

If he doesn't come back healthy, he won't yield anything in trade, so its a moot point.

Matt Cassel is healthy, his perceived value will never be higher and is likely higher than his actual value, and he will receive something in trade.

Please put 2 and 2 together. I'm done with this thread.

How come Matt Cassel's value will never be higher? If Brady cannot start the year, then Cassel begins the season. I see Cassel improving over last year in that scenario. Thus, his trade value does increase.

 

[Synovia]

It is not a 30% raise each year. A raise each year is limited to 30% of the total of the 2009 salary and roster bonus. If we use your 2.36 million number that would mean that every salary raise is limited to $708,000 or 30% of the $2.36 million.

BTW, signing bonuses can be prorated over 5 years this year.

Ah,, OK, so its X+1.3X+1.6X+1.9X, not X+1.3X+(1.3^2)X, make sense. Makes the math much easier too.

That makes the number 2.85M.

So with the 5 year proration, and 2.85M salary the first year, it looks like this:

2.85+4 = 6.85
3.71+4 = 7.71
4.56+4 = 8.56
5.42+4 = 9.49
6.27+4 = 10.27
7.13 = 7.13
------------------
50M



That brings it to 5M over brady this year (13+7 vs 15... about the same as P.Manning), 3M saved next year. Assuming they sign Brady to an extension, probably 10M saved in '11

 

[ScottieC]

Ok, I'm sure theres a way to get a $6-7M hit in the first year of a 6 year $50M deal.


Actually, just did the math out. If he started at 2.36M and had a 30% raise each year (just under 30), he'd have a 7.36M cap hit this year and 8.05 cap hit next year, max out at 10.2M cap hit in 2012, and have a 8.8M cap hit in 2014. (bonus prorated over 4)


50M, 20M bonus, 6 years.


COsting us (using Miguel's 13M number on Brady) about 6M over Brady this year, saving $2.5M next year, and then having a good QB under contract for the 4 years after that at 9M AAV, which is about half of what Brady is going to get for that time period, whether hes 100% or not.

Dude, You arguing with Miguel and Deus about Salary Cap is like me telling Tiger Woods how to hit a 6 Iron. Seriously.

 

[Synovia]

Dude, You arguing with Miguel and Deus about Salary Cap is like me telling Tiger Woods how to hit a 6 Iron. Seriously.

Miguel, is there anything wrong with my last set of contract numbers?


I'm not arguing with Miguel here. My numbers were wrong.. he told me how to fix them.


I'm arguing with the idea that the patriots, from a financial standpoint, "Can't afford to trade brady".

Not only can they financially afford to, they can afford to give Cassel a market deal, trade brady, and have plenty of cap room left.