DRAFT DAY DISCUSSION The Official Round 1 2013 NFL Draft Thread

[condon84]

Nope you brought up wonderlics of people playing different positions in different schemes on different teams in different eras. All of which has nothing to do with Patterson and the Patriots scheme.

You have fallen in love with Patterson and are ignoring the history of this team the last 13 years and the WRs that do and do not succeed in this offense. I'm done here you clearly do not understand what history has shown leads to thriving in this offense. So sorry that we did not get Patterson he would have been super awesome I'm sure.

The history of this regime's inability to draft a productive WR is precisely the reason why I think they should draft someone they don't typically target.

 

[Observer]

1. - Obviously the later you draft, the lower your probability of success
   
2. - Also consider the possibility that 60%+0%+0% < 30%+25%+15%
   
3. - As I said previously, it seems odd to rate a draft that has not yet happened
   
4. - Honey Badger? That's the answer? Seriously?

If those are the numbers that you are working with then it is a bad trade. If there is a 60% chance that a first rounder is successful and 30% that a second is etc. then the probability that AT LEAST ONE of those three is successful is actually going to be around 52%. 60%>52%, unfortunately.

 

[BTTA]

7. I'm less impressed with our trade that I was at first blush. Our 2 picks in the 2nd are a lot closer to being 3rd rounders than I would have liked. So it looks like we are going to add 7 or 8 new players, most of whom will NOT be household names. While there are still a lot of good WR's left and a few pass rushing DE's like Hunt, I'm concerned that at 53, even those guys will be gone.

This is my concern, as well. Wondering if they are looking to trade up earlier in the round.

 

[IllegalContact]

I think it was the pats plan to move down all along........there were some real reaches ahead of 29 which led to fallers.......

The charts is pretty baseless this year....this draft basically started at 15-20

Honestly, even Eric fisher may not be worth a 2,3,4, and 7

 

[Triumph]

The Patriots have some newfound flexibility with four picks for the second day of the draft, and director of player personnel Nick Caserio said there are some players still on the board who they considered selecting with the 29th pick before they shipped it to the Vikings.

"If some of those players start to come off and then we want to make a move up, we have maybe a little more flexibility to do that," Caserio said. "I think we're open to anything at this point."

The Blitz with Jeff Howe & Karen Guregian | Boston Herald

The Pats can move up assuming they can find a sucker thats wants their new found bevy of picks in a underwhelming draft.

Al Davis is dead and the other teams know that the Pats are between a rock and a hard place. They desperately need a WR.

 

[Fencer]

If those are the numbers that you are working with then it is a bad trade. If there is a 60% chance that a first rounder is successful and 30% that a second is etc. then the probability that AT LEAST ONE of those three is successful is actually going to be around 52%. 60%>52%, unfortunately.

Not terribly relevant, as long as it's an expected value of .6 players either way.

But indirectly, you point at one disadvantage of trading down -- one needs to use up more roster slots to collect on one's value. If it takes more than a rookie offseason to tell who will make it, that's significant.

Also, the proper comparison isn't 4 drafted rookies vs. 1; rather, it's 4 drafted rookies vs. 1 + 3 UDFAs.

So yes -- the expected value of success from the four picks had better EXCEED the expected value from one.

 

[Fencer]

By not criticizing now and "waiting to see what Belichick does next" -this makes you, in your own words, a bleating sheep.

At least you have pulled out this accusation numerous times when other posters have done this very thing: opted to reserve their own judgement (however lesser) and expressed that they had enough trust in Belichick that they would wait and see how things turn out.

As one sheep to another: Weeeeeeelcome to the foooooooold, brotherrrrrrr.

Now chew your cud (do sheep chew cuds?) and repeat after me: In Belichick We Trust. In Belichick We Trust.

Maybe we'll draft the next Dan Merino.

 

[Rob0729]

The history of this regime's inability to draft a productive WR is precisely the reason why I think they should draft someone they don't typically target.

I still think the Pats poor drafting of WR is a bit overstated. They haven't drafted that many very high so it is a low sample size. They haven't had a lot of success, but they have only drafted four WRs in the first three rounds in over a decade of drafting and not one in the first round (which obviously won't happen this year either).

Also, most of the WRs the Pats busted on were players who don't fit their system.

-The Pats' scouts and Brian Daboll were against Chad Jackson because in part he didn't fit the mold of what they look for in a WR and Belichick broke from their strategy because Urban Meyer talked the guy up.
-Bethel Johnson was an Al Davis type of pick. They loved his speed and didn't look to see if he fit the system. Johnson is the reason why Bob Kraft no longer goes to Pro Days with a stopwatch.

So two of the Pats' worst draft selections at WR were because they went off script and draft guys that they wouldn't typically draft. I say the Pats stay on script and draft a guy who fit their system. I trust Caserio after three very good drafts to make a good decision. He had nothing to do with most of the WR picks of the past.

 

[Rob0729]

Every WR the Pats would have taken last night is still on the board now. I wouldn't be surprised if the Pats end up picking within the first 3-4 picks tonight and still walk away with their guy.

Patterson was not a Patriots player. He has yet to show he has any capability to read defenses and run routes. He might be able to, but his limited exposure in college doesn't show he can. I doubt they would have ever taken him if they couldn't find a trade partner.

I like the Pats trading down. They now have a lot of flexibility to do a lot of things especially if they get a second for Mallett. I doubt the Pats are done moving before the weekend.

 

[shmessy]

Every WR the Pats would have taken last night is still on the board now. I wouldn't be surprised if the Pats end up picking within the first 3-4 picks tonight and still walk away with their guy.

Patterson was not a Patriots player. He has yet to show he has any capability to read defenses and run routes. He might be able to, but his limited exposure in college doesn't show he can. I doubt they would have ever taken him if they couldn't find a trade partner.

I like the Pats trading down. They now have a lot of flexibility to do a lot of things especially if they get a second for Mallett. I doubt the Pats are done moving before the weekend.

Also, note the #4 received is at #105. That's an early 4th rounder - - near the beginning of a new day of drafting on Saturday.

(Although, that's what pissed me off about the Dowling pick two years ago. They took him at #33 - - 1st pick of the new day 2nd round. That pick had HUGE value - - and they used it up on a reach whom they could have gotten lower down - - and he has yet to really come off the shelf for them. That was a BIG wasted opportunity).

 

[ALP]

If those are the numbers that you are working with then it is a bad trade. If there is a 60% chance that a first rounder is successful and 30% that a second is etc. then the probability that AT LEAST ONE of those three is successful is actually going to be around 52%. 60%>52%, unfortunately.

Ok, but what is the % that two players are successful? That 60% drops to 0% since u only draft one player, while in the second process there actually is a chance u get two good players

With the draft being more about luck than anything, it may b smarter to take the second option

 

[Onedaful]

How will teams compete with a guy that can see in another dimension constantly :shocked:

 

[Deus Irae]

By not criticizing now and "waiting to see what Belichick does next" -this makes you, in your own words, a bleating sheep.

No, it doesn't. The positions I view as important to deal with both have most of their players still on the board, and my #3 position is one I was content to wait on until the 3rd round (or even for it to go unaddressed if it was necessary to package picks to deal with the other positions). I didn't sign off on "BB rules!", since I'd already stated that I was fine with a trade down.

Now, run along little sheep.

 

[Huckleberry1]

The telling thing about most of those crying about the offseason and now the trade down is that they never will say what they would do, who they would have taken, how much it would cost etc....., they just b.tch and moan endlessly. I would have loved Hopkins, Werner, or S. Williams but when they went off the board I started having second thoughts about using a first for the remaining players I had listed, like hunter and Woods, and Allen, and although i would have been OK with them taking one I thought that trade moving them into positon to take 5 out of the next 80 or so players was a much better move, especially when you look at Mayock's top 100 remaining players, as there are many names on that list that i would love to see on the Patriots. The trade also gives them the flexibility to move back inside the 40's and get the guy they may have originally taken at 29 if they choose to do so.

I also think this enhances the likelihood that they come out of this draft with two WR's in the top 110 players, and they should be able to get two guys who can come in and really contribute this season if they wish to do, while also bolstering other needs like DL, DB, and interior OL.

It always sucks to spend 3 1/2 hours waiting for the pick only to have to do it all again the next day but to get what they got in this draft for that pick i couldn't be happier about the move. I honestly thought the big problem would be getting a trade partner who would give up anything meaningful to move back into the first and couldn't believe they got those 4 picks for it. Great job by Belichick, now let's see what he does with it?

 

[fnordcircle]

a little too light in the pants for my taste.

Paging Dr. Freud. Dr. Frued.

I didn't like the Jordan pick there either. This draft reminds me a lot of the 2005 draft when we got Mankins in that the value in the first round wasn't great at all.

When a guy like Patterson is the first WR picked I think it is really telling about what we're dealing with here.

There is still some solid CB and WR talent available and we pick in 20. I don't give a good goddamn about Bethel Johnson, Chad Jackson, Dowling, Wheatley, et al. That was then, this is now. The Patriots whiffed on a lot of TE picks too only to land on solid gold with Gronk and Hernandez.

 

[Deus Irae]

Every WR the Pats would have taken last night is still on the board now. I wouldn't be surprised if the Pats end up picking within the first 3-4 picks tonight and still walk away with their guy.

Patterson was not a Patriots player. He has yet to show he has any capability to read defenses and run routes. He might be able to, but his limited exposure in college doesn't show he can. I doubt they would have ever taken him if they couldn't find a trade partner.

I like the Pats trading down. They now have a lot of flexibility to do a lot of things especially if they get a second for Mallett. I doubt the Pats are done moving before the weekend.

I agree with you. This trade down actually allows them to move up in smaller chunks than the 1st round pick allowed. They've got the ammo to trade up twice in round 2, if needed, to get their men, and still have picks left later on.

Now, it's all about using that ammo.

 

[Observer]

Ok, but what is the % that two players are successful? That 60% drops to 0% since u only draft one player, while in the second process there actually is a chance u get two good players

With the draft being more about luck than anything, it may b smarter to take the second option

That is true, it all depends on how you weigh your options whether you would rather take just one player with a better chance of success or you would rather take the riskier option of the possibility of two good players but with a higher chance of both being busts.

But this is all a number exercise anyway. What really matters is whether they have identified a set of players that they want and how they can maximize their chances of getting those particular players. If they are looking at it as just a matter of probabilities then they have already failed. In the end it is the players that create value, not the picks.

 

[Patriot Missile]

The telling thing about most of those crying about the offseason and now the trade down is that they never will say what they would do, who they would have taken, how much it would cost etc....., they just b.tch and moan endlessly. I would have loved Hopkins, Werner, or S. Williams but when they went off the board I started having second thoughts about using a first for the remaining players I had listed, like hunter and Woods, and Allen, and although i would have been OK with them taking one I thought that trade moving them into positon to take 5 out of the next 80 or so players was a much better move, especially when you look at Mayock's top 100 remaining players, as there are many names on that list that i would love to see on the Patriots. The trade also gives them the flexibility to move back inside the 40's and get the guy they may have originally taken at 29 if they choose to do so.

I also think this enhances the likelihood that they come out of this draft with two WR's in the top 110 players, and they should be able to get two guys who can come in and really contribute this season if they wish to do, while also bolstering other needs like DL, DB, and interior OL.

It always sucks to spend 3 1/2 hours waiting for the pick only to have to do it all again the next day but to get what they got in this draft for that pick i couldn't be happier about the move. I honestly thought the big problem would be getting a trade partner who would give up anything meaningful to move back into the fist and couldn't believe they got those 4 picks for it. Great job by Belichick, now let's see what he does with it?

Let's use a trade scenario. Let's say the Patriots decide to move up tonight. They give their 2nd and one 3rd to acquire Woods or Alllen. In the grand scheme of things if they were to of picked one of these two up at 29 last night a majority would of been happy. I don't think some on this board are happy no matter what they do actually. The end result would be a really good wr that you could of picked at 29 and you also netted 4th and 7th round picks. Who possibly can't be happy with that? After their trade they still have a 2nd,3rd,4th and 3 7ths.

I think maybe part of the crying here is people think that all the good wr's will be gone if the Pats stay put at 52. I don't know, but I like having the Talib pick back. That bothered me quite a bit not having a 4th.

 

[dales804]

Responses to some of your comments on the comments in bold below.

Some comments on the comments.

1. Ian,I had trouble getting on most of the night. I'm sure I wasn't alone. I don't know if it was the volume of traffic or some technical snafu. But it was frustrating to wait 3 hours to finally have something to say and then be unable to say it.
I had trouble when the Pats pick came mostly. Ian said he was driving back and planned to look at it later today, I believe.

5. I liked the Jets pick of Richardson more than their pick of Mingo. Still they look to have the makings of a very good and young DL
The Jets did not take Mingo; he went to CLE. Milliner is the other player they took. I'm not a fan of trading Revis to bring in another CB that high.

6. The Dolphins continued to add the big names, but I'm not sold on Jordan. I love his speed and length, but a little too light in the pants for my taste. The same goes for Mingo. I would have been much more concerned if they used that pick on one of the top OLmen..
Jordan obviously needs to put on weight. I thought they'd go after a T after trading up.

7. I'm less impressed with our trade that I was at first blush. Our 2 picks in the 2nd are a lot closer to being 3rd rounders than I would have liked. So it looks like we are going to add 7 or 8 new players, most of whom will NOT be household names. While there are still a lot of good WR's left and a few pass rushing DE's like Hunt, I'm concerned that at 53, even those guys will be gone. It certainly isn't a "steal" like some would suggest.
I believe they will trade up at least once to get someone they coveted at 29. Don't know if that's WR, DL, CB or something else, though.

 

[DaBruinz]

Rounds 2-4 in 09 = Chung, Brace, Butler, Vollmer, McKenzie, Ohrnberger
I see 1 starter in those rounds.

Chung was a starter while he was here. Not sure why you think otherwise. Ohrnberger? May not have been a starter with the Pats, but that was due to injury. But guess what.. He's still in the league. As are Butler and Chung.

You choose to see only what you want.