The 2020 Super Bowl pregame thread

[NE_Zealot]

Someone bet $2.3M on the Bucs to cover.

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[NYCPATS4LIFE]

Someone bet $2.3M on the Bucs to cover.

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Floyd? Probably some athlete or rapper.

 

[NE_Zealot]

Floyd? Probably some athlete or rapper.

Or some redditer parlaying their GameStop stock earnings?

 

[carmelo15]

Bucs TEs were 10 for 13 for 140 yards during their regular season meeting. Gronk was 6 for 7 for 106 (season high).

Brate has come on of late as well

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Here's my optimistic take on the game...

This feels more like an NBA Game 7 than a Super Bowl, which is more of an NFL trend. It's hard to imagine either team, with this amount of preparation and focus, getting blown out. The teams were almost neck and neck for point differential this year with very similar offensive output and defensive points allowed.

With the exception of two flukey Denver teams (one flukey because their offense played so poorly, one because their defense played so great), virtually every Super Bowl in the last fifteen years has been competitive, almost all of them decided in the fourth quarter with lead changes or at least genuine suspense. Is Kansas City an exception to the rule at 14-1, and will they destroy Tampa Bay? I don't believe they will. There have been many blowouts in conference championship games during the fifteen year period. There have been teams objectively better than Kansas City who were unable to blowout opponents objectively inferior to Tampa Bay.

So, I think this game is going to be very close. You also have two quarterbacks that are unlikely to be on the wrong end of a lopsided defeat, as both of them will score points quickly as soon as a defense loosens up at all.

I expect this game to be competitive into the fourth quarter, and that's why I give Tampa Bay the edge. Some of it may come down to luck/clock, but I like two things about that scenario:

First, the Chiefs offensive line is a lot more likely to wane down as the game goes along and the Chiefs run out of novel plays; Tampa's defense is likely to have figured out most of what's being employed by then.

Second, I think the Chiefs are a better coached team. Later in games, I think it comes down much more to execution and players than it does coaches. Teams have already run 50 plays. Defenses know their limitations and strengths. I think Tampa Bay is a better overall team, player for player.

I'm not going to confidently pick Tampa Bay because I'm still hesitant to pick a team that still seems a bit sloppy and a work in progress over a well oiled machine. But I do like the overall likelihood of this game being close and competitive, which doesn't give Kansas City a chance to be at their best (especially their defense) as when they're protecting a lead.

 

[The Brandon Five]

I don't see how Wiley is going to be able to handle Shaq's quickness:

 

[BobDigital]

Someone bet $2.3M on the Bucs to cover.

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I hate cover bets with small spreads. I'd rather just pick the other team to win and potentially get 40-50% more.

Also a fun little fact. There have only been 6 games so far with former super bowl winning QBs. Staubach vs Bradshaw (twice), Theismann vs Plunkett, Warner vs Ben, Brady vs Eli, Brady vs Wilson and now Brady vs Mahomes. Almost all of these games were really good. The only exception being Theismann vs Plunkett (which didn't have a HOF QB in it.

The rest were 1 score games decided late in the 4th. Brady vs Mahomes should be hype as hell and I think it will follow the same formula.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

 

[Tony2046]

KC is going to probably have to live with sustained drives if their OL can’t hold up. Hill is still dangerous in space, but they become lethal with deep-breaking routes that have him taking the top off the defense. If Tampa can generate pressure with their front 3-4 and force Mahomes into his check down, they might be able to come out of Cover-2/Cover-3 and sit in Cover-1 Robber and Rat. Shade the single high safety toward Hill’s side of the field and choke off everything underneath. I wouldn’t try it from the get-go, though. Test the OL first and see how they hold up.

I think they need to cheat on a few of those KC plays they seemingly run every game. Drop the double coverage and break on the ball. Especially during one of those wheel routes.

Mahomes is a great young QB but he's prone to mistakes now and then.

 

[The Brandon Five]

Here’s an angle I haven’t seen anyone discuss: if Tampa wins, Brady will have accomplished what Jimmy G could not (beating Mahomes in a SB).

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Here’s an angle I haven’t seen anyone discuss: if Tampa wins, Brady will have accomplished what Jimmy G could not (beating Mahomes in a SB).

Also: Brady had more than six completions in beating the Packers in the NFCCG.

 

[Triumph]

 

[The Brandon Five]

Also: Brady had more than six completions in beating the Packers in the NFCCG.

Makes it all the more head-scratching that they went away from the run game with a lead in the SB.

 

[The Brandon Five]

So I have watched a bunch of the talking heads discuss the game and so far only a couple have highlighted the issues with KC's OL. There is a reason that a left tackle is one of the highest paid players on a team. The difference between ProBowler Fisher and swing tackle Remmers is significant. Fisher did not need any help, which may have helped KC to cover up some of the issues with the interior OL. That won't be the case this Sunday.

They have issues all across the line. Vea and Suh against an average interior and JPP against someone who has not started at LT since 2016 and Barrett against a guard playing RT.

 

[denverpatsfan]

Mahomes is not a traditional pocket passer. I would expect more roll outs etc. He is elusive and can throw effectively on the run. A bad o line will not have the same impact as with a QB like Brady.

 

[amfootball]

So I have watched a bunch of the talking heads discuss the game and so far only a couple have highlighted the issues with KC's OL. There is a reason that a left tackle is one of the highest paid players on a team. The difference between ProBowler Fisher and swing tackle Remmers is significant. Fisher did not need any help, which may have helped KC to cover up some of the issues with the interior OL. That won't be the case this Sunday.

They have issues all across the line. Vea and Suh against an average interior and JPP against someone who has not started at LT since 2016 and Barrett against a guard playing RT.

I agree. That KC Oline vs the Bucs Dline is the biggest mis-match in the whole game. The Bucs front has a chance to dominate this game the way Denver did vs the Panthers in 2015.

 

[sb1]

I'll just say I'll be way more shocked if the Chiefs win by double digits than I will be if the Bucs do the same.

This is Brady's and the Bucs year. Felt that way for two months and counting. It's destiny and was meant to be.

 

[TB12TheGoat]

I'll just say I'll be way more shocked if the Chiefs win by double digits than I will be if the Bucs do the same.

This is Brady's and the Bucs year. Felt that way for two months and counting. It's destiny and was meant to be.

I really hope you’re right. this is right up there with 2007 and 2014 for me in regards to wanting it so badly in regards to Brady. can’t stand Mahomes and would love to see Brady shut all these idiots in the media up about proclaiming Mahomes the easy next GOAT

 

[amfootball]

I'll just say I'll be way more shocked if the Chiefs win by double digits than I will be if the Bucs do the same.

This is Brady's and the Bucs year. Felt that way for two months and counting. It's destiny and was meant to be.

I am starting to come over to your side. I really hope you are right. There does feel like some like destiny is at play.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

So I have watched a bunch of the talking heads discuss the game and so far only a couple have highlighted the issues with KC's OL. There is a reason that a left tackle is one of the highest paid players on a team. The difference between ProBowler Fisher and swing tackle Remmers is significant. Fisher did not need any help, which may have helped KC to cover up some of the issues with the interior OL. That won't be the case this Sunday.

They have issues all across the line. Vea and Suh against an average interior and JPP against someone who has not started at LT since 2016 and Barrett against a guard playing RT.

Their interior OL isn‘t close to average.

Yeah, funny how Fisher and Schwartz aren’t very important now, and yet they cost about $25M combined.

Mahomes is not a traditional pocket passer. I would expect more roll outs etc. He is elusive and can throw effectively on the run. A bad o line will not have the same impact as with a QB like Brady.

He is a traditional pocket passer. He can buy more time in the pocket and sometimes scramble, but there’s no way he won’t be heavily impacted without two pro bowl/all-pro tackles.

When the Chiefs played the Saints, Fisher was a last minute decision and played despite being hurt. The Chiefs struggled all game to protect Mahomes and allowed four sacks.

Mahomes is also playing with a turf toe injury. Running around in the backfield and chucking it 40 yards is more of a rare highlight reel play than a normal outcome. It’s not that Mahomes won’t beat the pressure sometimes; it’s that it will limit the Chiefs playbook and give them more negative plays/incompletions to overcome.