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@AAshbridge2 For Romo, yes. Maybe not Denver.

Freudian slip. Like when you say "People need to pick up after their pets. I almost stepped in Goodell." https://t.co/kb8CpB4zF5

@BadaBing52 What do you mean by restructure?

@cdubb21 I'm not most experts, didn't make a pick and didn't ask you. Thanks!

@IAmJamesStewart Someone put it up on periscope I believe! 😊- and before he came in Brown was Snapchatting getting his hair cut

RT @BarstoolUofM: @jerrythornton1 lists 4 Reasons why #MichiganMan Tom Brady will Have Himself a Day against Pittsburgh https://t.co/VRDjoG…

@GioPontiFan yes, they are; they're better than people

Let's Mort, Mad Dog, Brunnell (😣), Kelly Naqi, Woody, Jerry Rice, Shank, Borges, Felger, Mazz. 95% of ESPN, half of… https://t.co/z6uTWRSWN2

Consider this your occasional reminder to go like my Facebook page. It's better for you than Fight Milk.… https://t.co/yJVhI5XgCO

@AAshbridge2 Cut. Definitely not restructured. New team = Too many teams to guess but not the Patriots:)

RT @scottzolak: Zolak & DeOssie Journey Forward Great Chance for AFC Championship Tix....Playoff Raffle | Celebrities For Charity https:/…

Time to talk to @bykevinclark about this weekend's conference championships on @PATRIOTSdotCOM

RT @corryjoel: Dallas would only have $5M of dead money in Tony Romo trade/release before 6/2 instead of $19.6M without 2014 & 2015 contrac…

RT @corryjoel: I'm not a fan of "the kick the can down the road" approach" of salary cap management. However, Dallas has 2 playoff berths i…

RT @corryjoel: For those asking me about salary cap implications of Tony Romo's contract, just read the link via @CBSSports. https://t.co/D…

RT @corryjoel: Nobody is close to the Cowboys in 2017 salary cap commitments. Slightly over $180M with $2.4M of carryover cap room from 201…

RT @corryjoel: Here's a look at what's next for the Dallas Cowboys via @CBSSports. https://t.co/DBrQbmEJq8

RT @corryjoel: Dallas currently has the biggest 2017 salary cap numbers at QB ($24.7M), WR ($17M), OT ($15.8M), C ($14.871M) & TE ($12.262M…

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One of the coolest things about my job - I get a lot of questions about being a sportswriter, including... https://t.co/sdxY7hKVkD

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Stat's that are the most meaningful.

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by PATSNUTme, Nov 17, 2012.

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  1. Get it shawtaay

    Get it shawtaay Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    For defenses, I propose points-per-length-adjusted-drive-minus-clock-stoppage. Look at two games - one where the defense gave up 23 points and one where the defense gave up 20 points.

    Length adjusted drive = length of drive/80
    PPD-ADJ = points scored on drive / length adjusted drive
    Drives where the first play is a kneel are excluded because the offense is not trying to score.

    [​IMG]

    Meets the eye test far better than PPG.
     
  2. Joker

    Joker PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    that's one helluva first post, shorty...


    how about failed love lives...you got any formulas for THAT?...I'd like to find out WTF went wrong and why I'm single with only a cat to show for my five + decades......[​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Nov 17, 2012
  3. Get it shawtaay

    Get it shawtaay Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    I do not have a formula for the game of football. I can merely attempt to improve upon the existing attempts to model its outcomes.

    Similarly, I cannot solve your girl problems. But if attempts to fix that problem are as rudimentary as points per game and yards per game, there is surely room for improvement.
     
  4. Joker

    Joker PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    so...you're saying I'm a few yards short of a first down in the game of life?

    that's cold, man...
     
  5. jason423

    jason423 Practice Squad Player

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    I track point efficiency and it usually has a pretty high correlation with records. The numbers are basically a measure of how much teams score above their opponents average allowed and by how much a teams holds the opponents down from their norms. This way it takes into account SOS. FWIW the Patriots have the top scoring efficiency in the league at 41.37% and a defensive score of -0.59%. At that pace the predicted wins would be 11.8 with a stdev of 1.23. Overall they rank 6th right now. The rest of the AFCE is awful ranking 23, 25, and 29 (prior to the Mia/Buff game Thursday). I used to track the home and away splits which is probably more accurate since many teams have a big variance but I got lazy and stopped doing that.

    Ive been fooling around more with drive efficiency this year (actual points per starting field position vs expected points per starting field position) which I think may be a pretty strong indicator of real offensive and defensive success.
     
  6. PATSNUTme

    PATSNUTme Paranoid Homer ex-moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    It's probably the give aways- take aways.:D
     
  7. Joker

    Joker PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    yeah...dyam straight...whatever I didn't give away, she took away....
     
  8. JJDChE

    JJDChE In the Starting Line-Up

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    You should've picked two games where your model actually did a good job of predicting the outcome. How are you going to convince people that you have a good model when you post an example that predicts 9 points and the actual score was 23?
     
  9. JJDChE

    JJDChE In the Starting Line-Up

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    Lots of penalties for Illegal Touching, eh?
     
  10. Get it shawtaay

    Get it shawtaay Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    The model does not produce a score that is immediately comparable to a real game. The numbers can only be compared among other adjusted scores.

    To compare the PPD-ADJ scores to real game scores, they would need to be scaled. To do this I would need to collect a ton of data, and correlate the PPD-ADJ scale to similarly "impressive" game score values. Something which I have not done.
     
  11. BradyBranch39

    BradyBranch39 In the Starting Line-Up

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    there's a ton of confirmation bias going around in this thread.
     
  12. Get it shawtaay

    Get it shawtaay Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    Care to enlighten us?
     
  13. supafly

    supafly PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    First of all, if you notice the graph you'll see that the Cardinals scored 20 points in total in a game that we lost 20-18 (not 23 as you stated).

    Secondly, one of the drives was for 2 yards coming off of a turnover, so in reality the defense gave up 13 where the graph predicted 9.25, so it's pretty close.

    In the PIT game, the final score was 25-17 but 2 points came on a safety, so the defense allowed 23 points where the graph predicted 20.2875.

    So what we can take from this "system" is that is can get us within a FG or so, which many others probably can too.

    I'm not knocking the system itself, I actually think that it showed results that are relatively close to what it predicted. I am saying that I don't necessarily think that he did a bad job in the 2 games that he showed though as it was pretty close in both.
     
  14. Get it shawtaay

    Get it shawtaay Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    I appreciate your interest in the stat, but again it is only useful for comparing a units performance across games at this point. The PPD-ADJ values cannot be compared to non-adjusted point totals without being normalized somehow.

    What you can glean from it is that the defense was universes better in the Cardinals game than in the Steelers game, even though the final scores (23 vs. 20 points allowed) don't tell that story.

    When I have some more time I will refine it and try to reach some broader conclusions.
     
  15. supafly

    supafly PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I appreciate the time, thank you.

    One thing we can all agree on is that we need to cut down on the 3rd down conversions, and improve overall in the pass defense itself. That is certain. Other than that the run defense is just fine rather good many times, and the turnovers and red zone efficiency are both very good.

    If they could just shave off a couple of pts off the total PPG and improve in the pass defense, we could have a very decent shot at making a deep run into the playoffs based off of the defense alone...of course that's a big "if."
     
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