"Solid" Patriot Defense Is 32nd on 3rd Down

[mgteich]

Missing Bodden has been devastating. The defensive players may be stepping up, but the totals are sobering. No team is playing worse on third down than the patriots. Opposing quartebacks are completing over 70% of their passes on 3rd down (only one team is worse).

Perhaps we can be 5-1 in the next 5 games with such stats, but it seems unlikely.

Do you all see great improvement is our corners in last few games?

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New England Patriots are losing time of possesion battle - ESPN Boston

An excerpt from the espn boston article

"New England's defensive numbers on third and fourth down are quite sobering for optimistic fans.

The Patriots have allowed opponents to convert 48.8 percent of third downs, worst in the NFL and a far cry from the 38.3 percent league average. The Patriots also have the league's second-worst fourth-down defense, but it's the third-and-long numbers that are most alarming. That's where drives that should end are allowing the opposing offense to stay on the field.

On third down with six or more yards to go, opponents have a 42.4 conversion percentage according to STATS LLC, which cites a league average of 26.5 percent. Here again, the Patriots rank last in the NFL. On third and 10 or more, opponents have converted for a first down 40 percent of the time, nearly twice the league average.


Patriots' Opponent Conversion Pct, 2010 Ranks
Pct NFL Rank League Avg
Overall 3rd down 48.8 32nd 38.3
3rd and 6+ yards 42.4 32nd 26.5
3rd and 10+ yards 40.0 31st 21.0
Overall 4th down 83.3 31st 48.0
Source: STATS LLC

Just how bad is the situation on third down? That 48.8 conversion percentage puts the Patriots on track to have the worst third-down defense since the 1995 Cleveland Browns (49.6), according to STATS. The coach of that team? Ironically, none other than Bill Belichick.

As the third-and-long numbers indicate, the Patriots' biggest defensive question marks are against the pass. Opposing quarterbacks are completing 70.1 percent of third-down passes (second highest in NFL) and have a 100.3 passer rating (fourth highest). It's not just he secondary's fault. The Patriots' two sacks on third down are tied for the fewest in the NFL."

 

[Fixit]

Maybe it's just me, but it seems like they're playing less aggressively on 3rd to mitigate the big plays while all of the kids get more acclimated. My impression is that, as they gain experience, we'll see more exotic and aggressive schemes, and the numbers will improve dramatically toward the end of the season.

But every 3rd down right now feels like a slooooooooooow death.

 

[neuronet]

Very sobering stats.

It used to be when the other team had third and long, I'd be psyched. Not any more. Now when it is third and long I get terrified. It seems when it is third and N, our secondary gives them an N+5 yard leeway in which to pass against us at will. It is absolutely infuriating!

I'm curious how people here will spin it as a net positive for the Pats. The Colts will demolish us if we don't tighten up.

Anyone have any good ideas of what we should be doing, given our players on hand?

 

[ctpatsfan77]

The one issue with this is that I'm fairly sure the D has improved relative to the beginning of the season; in other words, if you look at the last three games relative to the first three, you'd see at least some improvement.

 

[RelocatedPatFan]

Probably be a good stat to start charting for the team. Show % for each game and overall % the last 3 games...just to see if we are making improvement.

I'd also like to see how they react to 3rd downs inside the 20 (to see how th bend, but don't break philosophy is working out). Winning certain seems to mask some if the issues, but I'm sure the coaches are working their plan.

The soft zone that leaves the middle open drives me nuts...

 

[neuronet]

Maybe it's just me, but it seems like they're playing less aggressively on 3rd to mitigate the big plays while all of the kids get more acclimated. My impression is that, as they gain experience, we'll see more exotic and aggressive schemes, and the numbers will improve dramatically toward the end of the season.

But every 3rd down right now feels like a slooooooooooow death.

Very interesting point.

If only our offense could step it up a bit, perhaps this strategy would induce fewer close calls. We got sooooo lucky last week!

 

[everlong]

While I agree on Boddin being a big factor they've given up just as many 3rd down conversions over the middle. Their zone is soft and the players although generally in the right spots aren't reacting as the play unfolds. It's like a kid in school who can memorize and parrot back the correct answers but when put in a real world situation they don't understand the concepts to adjust when something is different. Hopefully this will change as they mature together as a defense.

As many of the championship year defenders have pointed out it wasn't just knowing what you were going to do but knowing what the guy next to you was going to do. Rodney, Tedy, TJ and Ty have all commented on this recently.

 

[Gwedd]

At least they are consistent. They've got THAT going for them, anyway.

 

[xmarkd400x]

I think most people agree that the 3rd down defense this year has been terrible. However, I think most people will agree that flashes of good defense have been seen.

What has been happening is that the Patriots have been making enough plays to win. I hope that continues. I don't care if the opponent converts every third down opportunity as long as the pats win.

 

[TheComeback]

mg there is more to playing defense than their third down percentage. Why do you always have to be as negative as possible about the team, specifically the defense? They have stepped up and made some big plays on 3rd down when it really counts.

The D this year is passing the eyeball test. It may not pass the statistical test yet but that will come with time.

 

[mgteich]

Yes, much of the damage has been in the middle of the field, but the reality is that the difference between this year and last is that Bodden is gone and McCourty has been added.
The guys in the middle are the same: Butler and Wilhite.

Having Bodden and McCourty on the outside would give us a greatly improved secondary, unless you think Arrington is a solid replacement for Bodden.

Another sad part of this situation is the front seven has played reasonably well, and better than expected by most (especially the DL).

While I agree on Boddin being a big factor they've given up just as many 3rd down conversions over the middle. Their zone is soft and the players although generally in the right spots aren't reacting as the play unfolds. It's like a kid in school who can memorize and parrot back the correct answers but when put in a real world situation they don't understand the concepts to adjust when something is different. Hopefully this will change as they mature together as a defense.

As many of the championship year defenders have pointed out it wasn't just knowing what you were going to do but knowing what the guy next to you was going to do. Rodney, Tedy, TJ and Ty have all commented on this recently.

 

[cstjohn17]

Maybe it's just me, but it seems like they're playing less aggressively on 3rd to mitigate the big plays while all of the kids get more acclimated. My impression is that, as they gain experience, we'll see more exotic and aggressive schemes, and the numbers will improve dramatically toward the end of the season.

But every 3rd down right now feels like a slooooooooooow death.

There are lots of other scary stats, take your pick.
2010 NFL Team Total Stats - National Football League - ESPN

I disagree that they are being less aggressive, they blitz about the same percentage as past years but they can't bring it home. They pass rush stinks and the secondary gets exposed.

On the positive side they don't give up and have made some key 3rd down stops, and most importantly they are learning these lessons while winning.

It is what it is, if they can become "average" by the end of the year that is about the ceiling.

 

[RelocatedPatFan]

mg there is more to playing defense than their third down percentage. Why do you always have to be as negative as possible about the team, specifically the defense? They have stepped up and made some big plays on 3rd down when it really counts.

The D this year is passing the eyeball test. It may not pass the statistical test yet but that will come with time.

Not negative so to say, but seeming more like reality.

There have been 3rd down plays we've stopped and there have been 3rd down plays where the QB has missed the open receiver (part of that can be attributed to the D-line), some of it is the QB just missing.

I think we all just speak from a general sense of uneasiness when the D is giving up yards. They have been very opportunistic this year (somewhat like the Saints from last year). in creating turnovers or playing smart foot ball (as in the chargers game).

The games are exciting to watch, but also somewhat nervous as well . As long as the team keeps improving, all is well.

 

[Patstopia]

Just win baby. Stats are for baseball to fill in for the excitement.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Intersting, it hasn't really seemed that bad. Regardless, I don't mind giving up first downs if we are going to create TO's and buckle down in the red zone. I've been very pleased with the defense outside of the Jets and Bills games.

 

[mesoslo]

If the patriots had a really high ranking defense on third down and a healthy tom brady, who is also a canidate for MVP, then that wouldnt be fair to the other teams now would it?

 

[Deus Irae]

This team's been very lucky on defense. QBs like Henne making unforced errors, and boneheaded opponent moves like leaving the ball on the field after going down untouched have combined to make the defense look as if it's doing more than it has been.

But a win's a win, and the team is getting it done where it matters most: 5-1.

 

[KCSVEN]

By Game
Cincy:8-15 53.33%
Jets: 6-13 46.15%
Buff: 5-10 50%
Mia: 10-15 66.67%
Balt: 5-16 31.25%
SD: 7-15 46.67%
Overall: 41-84 48.80%

4th downs, cincy 3-3, jets 1-1, Miami 0-1, SD 1-1
Overall 4th down 5-6 83.33%

 

[The 12th Man]

Intersting, it hasn't really seemed that bad. Regardless, I don't mind giving up first downs if we are going to create TO's and buckle down in the red zone. I've been very pleased with the defense outside of the Jets and Bills games.

You're obviously not watching the games close. Just the San Diego game was a great example on it's own. I remember AT LEAST 3 for sure plays when it was 3rd and 8,9 and someteen, and Chargers easily got first downs by passing on us. And they did the same thing most of the game throwing to Crayton on short inside slants/ins or Sproles as out of backfield. I kept getting frustrated with the D because it was obvious even to me who was going to get the ball.

 

[WhiteWesWelker88]

This news is sad



I am not surprised........


We do suck balls on 3rd down and our D is on the field for the most snaps.



plz fix this problem BB