"Solid" Patriot Defense Is 32nd on 3rd Down

[RobertWeathers]

Fact: Even if we don't win it all this year, we're set up to win the next 3 in a row! (ok, maybe less fact and more opinion...)

You hate to have the attitude of, 'this is a rebuilding year' and lower your expectations but I do think that is the case. What is a surprise is that with a defense without Ty Warren & Bodden, a bunch o rooks playing, WW still not there and a suspect running game, the team is 5-1 and AT WORST should go 10-6.

With maybe a couple of quality FA signings, TB still playing at a high-level another solid draft and the "core" galvanizing, there is no reason not to see a very bright future for this team.

 

[MassPats38]

One game a time, but!

The question to me is how this team can stop the colts without a solid secondary and without an aggressive passrush. We just don't seem to match up well against the colts at this point. But then, we have a long way to go, and much time in which to improve. And perhaps, we won't play the colts in the playoffs.

The secondary is young and should be expected to improve over the course of the season given (1) adjustments from college speed to pro speed, (2) group dynamics and (3) comfort with the Pats defense. I wouldn't get overly depressed over numbers after game 6. Frankly, I am surprised the defense has looked as good as it has looked at times. When the components can play at that level with consistency, hopefully more so as the season progresses, the Pats can play with any offense.

As far as getting bailed out by drops, I agree it has happened but that can be said of every team. The Ravens had a great D, statistically, but couldn't make stops when it counted. The Pats had a lousy D statistically and made the stop when it had to. The result is a W for a statistically inferior team. Inopportune lapses are oftentimes the difference between winners and losers in a game.

As far as the Colts go, its offense seems to be taking care of itself with injuries. There is no run, and quality receiving threats are becoming scarce. I would be more concerned with a defensive team that has just enough offense to win, like the Steelers, Jets and Ravens (despite last week's showing).

 

[Nikolai]

How about by half???

........ Ist half ............ second half
Cinn ......... 2/7 ................ 6/8
NYJ ........ 3/5 ................. 3/8
Buff ......... 4/8 .................... 1/2
Mia ........ 3/6 ................ 7/9
Balt ....... 2/7 ............... 3/9
SD ........ 3/8 .................... 4/7
Opponent 3rd down conversion
First half 17/41 ……41.4%
second half 24/43…..55.8%

Excellent! Thank you.

Your post made me want to go and start doing some research of my own. I noticed there is actually an error with the Dolphins game in the second half. The Dolphins failed on third down four times out of ten.

1. Dolphins punted on their first possession.
2. Dolphins failed to convert on third down at the beginning of the third quarter, resulting in a FG attempt that was blocked and returned for a TD.
3. The Dolphins next possession ended with the Dolphins turning the ball over on downs.
4. The Dolphins final possession ended on a third-down throw that was intercepted by Page.

Source: http://library.kraftsportsgroup.com/20101004_gamebook.pdf (PDF)

---------------------------------------

In any case, let's move on to the good stuff. I want to take a look at the games I mentioned because at one point in each of those games, the Pats held a lead that was at least 2+ scores.

Cincinnati @ Patriots

The Pats went into the second half against Cincinnati with a 24-3 lead.
Cincinnati outscored Pats 24-14 and were 6/8 on third downs.

Source: http://library.kraftsportsgroup.com/20100912_gamebook.pdf (PDF)

Patriots @ Miami

The Pats went into the second half against Miami down 7-6. As we all know, Tate ran the kickoff back for a TD, making it 13-7. The next defensive series saw the Dolphins go three-and-out. The Pats next drive made it 20-7 with 12:50 left in the third quarter. From this point, the Dolphins converted on 6/9 third down attempts.

Source: http://library.kraftsportsgroup.com/20101004_gamebook.pdf (PDF)

Patriots @ San Diego

The Pats went into the second half up 13-3 over the Chargers. More specifically, they went into the 4th quarter up 20-3, though the first play of the fourth quarter was a Charger FG, making it 20-6. During the fourth quarter, the Chargers were 3/5 on third downs.

Source: http://library.kraftsportsgroup.com/20101024_gamebook.pdf (PDF)

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Let's take a look at the closer games.

Patriots @ New York Jets

The largest lead of the game for the Pats was seven points during the second quarter. The first half was not particularly good for the Pats on third down, giving up 3/5 third down plays when the game was close. The second half was a little better as far as third down chances went, and while the defense did go 3/8 officially, one of the third down chances was a kneel down at the end of the game. I'm going to go the honest route and call it 3/7. The Pats were 6/12 on third downs in this game, and some of them were very costly.

Source: http://library.kraftsportsgroup.com/20100919_gamebook.pdf (PDF)

Buffalo @ Patriots

This game was close until the end, though Buffalo got a garbage time TD to make the final score close. So there will be two breakdowns here. While the game was within two scores, the Bills converted 4/9 third down chances. However, the Bills did convert their only third down chance after the Pats had gone up by two scores.

Source: http://library.kraftsportsgroup.com/20100926_gamebook.pdf (PDF)

Baltimore @ Patriots

This game stayed within two scores the entire time. During the first three-plus quarters of the game, the Ravens converted 4/10 third downs. When the Pats finally got the tie, the Ravens only converted 1/5 third downs against the defense.

Source: http://library.kraftsportsgroup.com/20101017_gamebook.pdf (PDF)

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BOTTOM LINES

Third down defense when behind: 9/18, 50%
Third down defense when playing with less than 2 score lead: 14/28, 50%
Third down defense when playing with more than 2 score lead: 16/23, 70%

If one excludes the second half of the Jets game and the fourth quarter of the Chargers game, the defense has allowed 5/14 (36%) third downs to be converted when defending a less than 2 score lead.

There is a definite trend to let up when up by two scores. I might do an analysis of whether or not the drives are longer as a result to determine if this is a strategy by BB to run out the clock, but for now, I'll have to say that the third down defense takes a hit.

Overall, the third down defense needs to improve, but I think we're seeing some growth, especially during the Ravens game.

 

[Ring 6]

Since the bye week there has been obvious improvement in the defense.
In those 2 games, vs good offenses, they are 12/31 for 38.7% which is right about the league average. So the issue seens as if it is bein addressed.
Also, if you take away the 2 games won by large margins with a lot of prevent defense (Cincy and Miami) the season long 3rd downs are 23/54 which is 42.5%

Theway this team has played in the first 6 games isn't measurable in statistics. They have played a large part of their season in prevent defense skewing the stats. They have made plays at critical times.

The biggest difference between the Patriots of the Championship years and the Patriots since is that the Champions were better teams than their stats, and the non-Champs had stats that were better than their results.

You will have a hard time convincing me that statistics are more important that just simply getting games won.

 

[TheGodInAGreyHoodie]

You hate to have the attitude of, 'this is a rebuilding year' and lower your expectations but I do think that is the case.

Rebuilding? We are 5-1. Teams that are 1-5 talk rebuilding. 5-1 teams don't.

 

[AzPatsFan]

The great fighter, Mohamed Ali used an approach called the "rope-a-dope". It relied on the opponent wearing himself out, harmlessly landing well protected blows onto Ali's arms and gloves. Spanish Bullfighters use the same strategy, wearing the Bull out in harmless charges at a cape.

So does Belichick. He knows that he has a young, raw, Defense, that is athletic and talented, but subject to making errors. BB uses that Defense as an Offensive weapon. He purposely has his Defense invite the open, short, completion over the middle.

It is a "rope-a-dope" trap. All the DBs and coverage LBs are deep, so the quick completion over the middle chews up time on the clock, and allows no really long gains or cheap scores, since multiple someones of the Defense will come up and tackle. He purposely does not allow completions to the sidelines. It is generally safer, as there are limited resources that can be brought to bear, to prevent a missed tackle, and subsequent opposition TD.

BB knows he has a superior, and now balanced, Offense that he has tailored for long rime consuming marches and scores, by trading Moss and re-acquiring possession receiver Deon Branch.

The combination uses up the clock, and relies as much on the Opposition's mistakes as his own players in stopping drives. After a decade of always having his teams "Points For" and "Points Against" outrank the ratings of his Offense and Defense in their League position, he knows the results of such a strategy.

At 5-1, the strategy obviously works. :snob:

 

[SuperPatsFan]

<snip>
BOTTOM LINES

Third down defense when behind: 9/18, 50%
Third down defense when playing with less than 2 score lead: 14/28, 50%
Third down defense when playing with more than 2 score lead: 16/23, 70%

If one excludes the second half of the Jets game and the fourth quarter of the Chargers game, the defense has allowed 5/14 (36%) third downs to be converted when defending a less than 2 score lead.
<snip>

Great stuff. This analysis is consistent with the team going into "prevent defense" mode with a big lead, and conceding (sometimes large) chunks of yardage in exchange for taking time off the clock.

 

[Deus Irae]

Excellent! Thank you.

Your post made me want to go and start doing some research of my own. I noticed there is actually an error with the Dolphins game in the second half. The Dolphins failed on third down four times out of ten.

1. Dolphins punted on their first possession.
2. Dolphins failed to convert on third down at the beginning of the third quarter, resulting in a FG attempt that was blocked and returned for a TD.
3. The Dolphins next possession ended with the Dolphins turning the ball over on downs.
4. The Dolphins final possession ended on a third-down throw that was intercepted by Page.

Source: http://library.kraftsportsgroup.com/20101004_gamebook.pdf (PDF)

---------------------------------------

In any case, let's move on to the good stuff. I want to take a look at the games I mentioned because at one point in each of those games, the Pats held a lead that was at least 2+ scores.

Cincinnati @ Patriots

The Pats went into the second half against Cincinnati with a 24-3 lead.
Cincinnati outscored Pats 24-14 and were 6/8 on third downs.

Source: http://library.kraftsportsgroup.com/20100912_gamebook.pdf (PDF)

Patriots @ Miami

The Pats went into the second half against Miami down 7-6. As we all know, Tate ran the kickoff back for a TD, making it 13-7. The next defensive series saw the Dolphins go three-and-out. The Pats next drive made it 20-7 with 12:50 left in the third quarter. From this point, the Dolphins converted on 6/9 third down attempts.

Source: http://library.kraftsportsgroup.com/20101004_gamebook.pdf (PDF)

Patriots @ San Diego

The Pats went into the second half up 13-3 over the Chargers. More specifically, they went into the 4th quarter up 20-3, though the first play of the fourth quarter was a Charger FG, making it 20-6. During the fourth quarter, the Chargers were 3/5 on third downs.

Source: http://library.kraftsportsgroup.com/20101024_gamebook.pdf (PDF)

---------------------------------------

Let's take a look at the closer games.

Patriots @ New York Jets

The largest lead of the game for the Pats was seven points during the second quarter. The first half was not particularly good for the Pats on third down, giving up 3/5 third down plays when the game was close. The second half was a little better as far as third down chances went, and while the defense did go 3/8 officially, one of the third down chances was a kneel down at the end of the game. I'm going to go the honest route and call it 3/7. The Pats were 6/12 on third downs in this game, and some of them were very costly.

Source: http://library.kraftsportsgroup.com/20100919_gamebook.pdf (PDF)

Buffalo @ Patriots

This game was close until the end, though Buffalo got a garbage time TD to make the final score close. So there will be two breakdowns here. While the game was within two scores, the Bills converted 4/9 third down chances. However, the Bills did convert their only third down chance after the Pats had gone up by two scores.

Source: http://library.kraftsportsgroup.com/20100926_gamebook.pdf (PDF)

Baltimore @ Patriots

This game stayed within two scores the entire time. During the first three-plus quarters of the game, the Ravens converted 4/10 third downs. When the Pats finally got the tie, the Ravens only converted 1/5 third downs against the defense.

Source: http://library.kraftsportsgroup.com/20101017_gamebook.pdf (PDF)

---------------------------------------

BOTTOM LINES

Third down defense when behind: 9/18, 50%
Third down defense when playing with less than 2 score lead: 14/28, 50%
Third down defense when playing with more than 2 score lead: 16/23, 70%

If one excludes the second half of the Jets game and the fourth quarter of the Chargers game, the defense has allowed 5/14 (36%) third downs to be converted when defending a less than 2 score lead.

There is a definite trend to let up when up by two scores. I might do an analysis of whether or not the drives are longer as a result to determine if this is a strategy by BB to run out the clock, but for now, I'll have to say that the third down defense takes a hit.

Overall, the third down defense needs to improve, but I think we're seeing some growth, especially during the Ravens game.

So, with just a 6 game sample, if you take out the two worst performances, you see an improvement. I'm not sure that's newsworthy in any way.

 

[Nikolai]

So, with just a 6 game sample, if you take out the two worst performances, you see an improvement. I'm not sure that's newsworthy in any way.

 

[TheGodInAGreyHoodie]

So, with just a 6 game sample, if you take out the two worst performances, you see an improvement. I'm not sure that's newsworthy in any way.

Team is 5-1 and tied for first place in the league. I am not sure how claiming our defense sucks is newsworthy in any way.

 

[Deus Irae]

Team is 5-1 and tied for first place in the league. I am not sure how claiming our defense sucks is newsworthy in any way.

For the most part, this has been a thread specifically about the defense's play on 3rd down. I'm not seeing a lot of "defense sucks" out of the blue.

 

[Deus Irae]

Dude, when you pull away the 2+ scores conversions, and then you pull away the two worst 2- scores conversions, you're making the sample size useless. At that point, you're creating a situation where you need to go back to each and every drive to break it down in order to have anything worthwhile.

 

[mb6592]

This team's been very lucky on defense. QBs like Henne making unforced errors, and boneheaded opponent moves like leaving the ball on the field after going down untouched have combined to make the defense look as if it's doing more than it has been.

But a win's a win, and the team is getting it done where it matters most: 5-1.

That's the reality w/o the spin. TOP, total yards per game, and 3rd down efficiancy show a defense that's lacking but if it makes one feel better to describe this defense as average and improving because it has benefited from the things Dues has described, then by all means.....

 

[BPF]

Yes, much of the damage has been in the middle of the field, but the reality is that the difference between this year and last is that Bodden is gone and McCourty has been added.
The guys in the middle are the same: Butler and Wilhite.

Having Bodden and McCourty on the outside would give us a greatly improved secondary, unless you think Arrington is a solid replacement for Bodden.

Another sad part of this situation is the front seven has played reasonably well, and better than expected by most (especially the DL).

Chung has been playing nickel db not Wilhite or Butler over the last 3 games. I think as Cunningham gains more experience the pass rush will improve, the 3rd down in the NFL is the money down where your playmakers step up and make plays. The young players on D have been improving and as they gain even more experience they will begin to make plays on 3rd down. It's not the end of the world, the Pats are 5-1 and no where to go but up with 3rd down D. Relax.

 

[Nikolai]

Dude, when you pull away the 2+ scores conversions, and then you pull away the two worst 2- scores conversions, you're making the sample size useless. At that point, you're creating a situation where you need to go back to each and every drive to break it down in order to have anything worthwhile.

Then you've totally missed the point. I'll spell it out for you. The point of pulling away the 2+ scores conversions is that the difference between the percentage of conversions in that situation compared to other situations is very significant to the point that it may be schematic in nature. Pulling the "two worst 2- conversions" is a footnote and was placed as such, but since you brought it up, it has occupied less than 10% of the defensive snaps for the season, and one of them occurred in a situation, the Chargers game, that started off (perhaps schematically) in a 2+ score defensive scenario.

The wider point is that just stating an admittedly poor 3rd down conversion rate and then saying "the defense sux" holds water for the nitwit, but it doesn't necessarily pass the eye test, and the above tells you why. The performance is not uniform.

 

[Deus Irae]

Then you've totally missed the point. I'll spell it out for you. The point of pulling away the 2+ scores conversions is that the difference between the percentage of conversions in that situation compared to other situations is very significant to the point that it may be schematic in nature. Pulling the "two worst 2- conversions" is a footnote and was placed as such, but since you brought it up, it has occupied less than 10% of the defensive snaps for the season, and one of them occurred in a situation, the Chargers game, that started off (perhaps schematically) in a 2+ score defensive scenario.

The wider point is that just stating an admittedly poor 3rd down conversion rate and then saying "the defense sux" holds water for the nitwit, but it doesn't necessarily pass the eye test, and the above tells you why. The performance is not uniform.

I didn't miss the point. It's a bulk stat and you're undercutting it by weeding out the data.

No stat is perfect. That's understood.

 

[mgteich]

Let's be serious here. If either Chung or Sanders is our nickel back, that reflects very badly on th play of our corners. No one WANTS Chung to be our nickel. I mention Sanders because he also has been called upon to be the nickel back.

If we go into the offseason with Chung and Sanders being our best choice at nickel, then we will address the serious corner need in the offseason. That would mean the failure of Wilhite, Butler and Wheatley.

Chung has been playing nickel db not Wilhite or Butler over the last 3 games. I think as Cunningham gains more experience the pass rush will improve, the 3rd down in the NFL is the money down where your playmakers step up and make plays. The young players on D have been improving and as they gain even more experience they will begin to make plays on 3rd down. It's not the end of the world, the Pats are 5-1 and no where to go but up with 3rd down D. Relax.

 

[Patspsycho]

That is what is scary.

This team is 5-1 yet the defense has much to work on and a lot of room to improve.. it isn't anywhere near it's potential, at all.

 

[Patspsycho]

Chung has been playing nickel db not Wilhite or Butler over the last 3 games. I think as Cunningham gains more experience the pass rush will improve, the 3rd down in the NFL is the money down where your playmakers step up and make plays. The young players on D have been improving and as they gain even more experience they will begin to make plays on 3rd down. It's not the end of the world, the Pats are 5-1 and no where to go but up with 3rd down D. Relax.

Chung doesn't play nickel.. that's been Wilhite in the slot.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

Thanks to all the posters for all the numbers in this thread. Especially some of those that had to be manually compiled by going through game logs. Some interesting information came out of that.

BB famously mentioned that stats are for losers, but let's not kid ourselves, he's an economics major and he knows what the numbers are. Stats are not as cut and dry in football as they are in baseball, but BB is a very bright coach who has bucked a lot of conventional football "wisdom" and makes sound statistical decisions consistently.

One can get carried away by the numbers, but one can also go too far in the opposite direction and ignore them. In football, it's extremely difficult and sometimes impossible to make certain conclusions. But that doesn't mean that BB and the team aren't looking at those numbers and trying to improve in certain key areas. They may not care about some things like how many yards Tom Brady throws for or how many TDs our WRs catch, but other areas like limiting 3rd down conversions isn't a bad thing. In no way will it lessen your odds of winning. So I'm sure they're aware of it and they'll focus on it.